Possible reasons Atlanta is reportedly going to break camp with Brandon Beachy in the rotation
March 22, 2011 at 7:02 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Danny Knobler:
1) To suppress Mike Minor’s service time.
2) To showcase Brandon Beachy in order to trade him. Let’s face it, he’s trade bait as soon as Teheran/Delgado are ready.
3) They feel that Beachy can currently help the club more than Minor.
Whatever the reason, I don’t think it really matters. The other one will be in AAA and called upon when a 6th starter is inevitably needed. They’re roughly the same pitcher in terms of present quality, though Minor figures to eventually be the better starter.
If 1) is the real reason, the decision to call Minor up a few days before his MLB debut so he could “get comfortable in the clubhouse” looks even more silly now than it did seven months ago–as if he couldn’t have done that whilst he was officially on the AAA roster.
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The real reason: He’s a good young pitcher with a bright future who’s more polished than Minor right now. And the Braves front office holds him in high regard and they have no plans to trade him.
Nope.
At least Mike gets to pitch in a league named after him.
They are doing to the same thing to Minor that they did to Hanson. Suppressing the service time. Minor’s the more talented pitcher.
He’s more talented for sure, but they’re probably about the same in terms of immediate impact. The difference being Beachy is more or less at his ceiling while Minor has some more things to learn/improve upon.
“though Minor figures to eventually be the better starter.”
Based on what? You might be right (and you probably are) but what are you basing that on? I think the only pitcher in the Braves system that you can definitively say is gonna be better than Beachy is Julio Teheran. Based on what Beachy has done so far in the minors & majors & spring training, there’s no way the Braves are gonna rush out and trade him simply because there are more “hyped” prospects behind him.
Just posted this on twitter:
“The Braves can call Mike Minor up after June 7th and retain him for an additional year. Got 58 days of service in 2010. Beachy got 14.”
“Based on what? You might be right (and you probably are) but what are you basing that on?”
Stuff, command, mechanics, and pitchability.
It’s not that I don’t think Beachy will be good (or that I think Minor will be awesome), just think he’s got a higher ceiling. I see Beachy as a solid #4 starter and Minor eventually as a solid #3 starter. They’re both nice pieces to have.
Fair enough. I think their stuff is actually quite similar. Beachy has more command of his breaking pitches at this point while Minor has a slightly better changeup. The biggest difference is that Minor is a lefty and all things being equal that makes him more valuable in the long term. But he’s not quite as polished yet. I see them both as #3 starters in the big leagues with perhaps Minor having a season or two where he pitches more like a top of the rotation guy. But I still maintain that the Braves are not planning on trading him.
I think you’re being very matter of fact about this. Beachy may end up being the better player both presently and in the long run, depite Minor being the better prospect. The fact of the matter is that no one knows what will happen in the future. No one thought beachy would even be mentioned in the same breath a year ago. Minor projects to be a better pitcher, but it’s not a certainty. If the braves choose Beachy, it will be because he’s the better present player.
telemakhos,
Please do point out where I said Minor will certainly be the better pitcher.
Not to draw too much on SSS, but in their AAA stats last year, Minor had better SO/9, H/9, HR/9 and ERA.
I say it’s win win. Minor’s likely the better pitcher right now, but we can keep in the farm to prolong his service time like Tommy Hanson.
If Minor is sent to the minors, I’m going to choose to accept what will probably be the official line: that the Braves want him to work on his secondary pitches a bit more. We know he’s still working on his curveball.
I don’t think there’s a question that Minor has the better upside between him and Beachy though.
With having just read the latest of how the Braves are shopping Lopez and KK (something we have been talking about forever) maybe the Braves are hoping Beachy performs well enough to package for something decent in return. As opposed to just eating salary and minor league filler as an alternative that is staring us in the face.
@6 CAC – Why did you pick June 7 as the date after which the Braves can avoid having to offer Minor arbitration after his second full year? I thought that the rule was the top 17% of players with more than two but less than three years of service time will become arbitration eligible.
Because of his service time, I think the Braves would need to wait until the middle of July to call up Minor to avoid him being a Super-2 guy. As far as free agency and service time, I think CAC is right, somewhere around the beginning of June would ensure that Minor is under the Braves control thru the 2017 season instead of 2016.
@12-CygnusXS,
That’s what I was thinking. I don’t think Minor is as polished as Beachy in the secondary pitches department.
As far as who ends up being the better pitcher, I think it will be Minor but Beachy will be the better story.
@ 10 CAC, your responses in 2 and 4 seem to indicate that you reject the possibility of beachy being the better present or future pitcher.
I don’t buy the service time option. They dismissed it with Heyward. They brought up Freeman late last season when they could have held him down for two weeks to start this season.
I heard reports that the Braves weren’t entirely happy with Minor last season. They said he complained of tiredness and didn’t seem a “team player”. I guess the idea is that is why Beachy was brought up–Minor didn’t necessarily want to pitch while Beachy did. Additionally, Beachy had the better ERA (not sure if that “actually” matters, but it may have helped give Beachy an additional edge) when he came up last season.
There’s an interesting article on the Super Two rule here:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100506&content_id=9840460&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
It’s all relative and part of which players on your club become super twos is dictated by when other clubs call up their players. Unless I misunderstood the rule, as the trend of holding players back longer to suppress their service time catch, clubs will have to hold their players back longer to avoid that top 17%.
I agree with you Mark. I don’t think service time had squat to do with it. I think Chipper was accurate when he said the Braves were hoping Minor would win the job because he is a lefty. It looks like Beachy has won the job because he’s a slightly more polished pitcher at this point. And, as you point out, I don’t think Minor has quite the makeup that Beachy has at the moment. Its that makeup and character of Beachy that helped him rocket thru the minors and into the big league rotation.
@17: I didn’t see that at all. I think he rejected #1′s statement as a whole, because showcasing possible trade bait is definitely the way to go when you’d have 3 starters in the minors who all project to be higher than Beachy. When you look at all of the starters who possibly could be better, you would look at Hanson, Hudson, Jurrjens, Delgado, Teheran, and Minor. Where would Beachy fall into that in 2012, or 2013? Even if/when the Braves get rid of JJ, I don’t think I’d put Beachy in before Minor…and I certainly wouldn’t hold Minor down if he has a good minor league campaign.
raindawg722/14,
“Why did you pick June 7 as the date after which the Braves can avoid having to offer Minor arbitration after his second full year?”
That’s not what I said. jrhode explained it correctly, but just to reiterate, if they call him up after June 7th he’ll finish the year with less than 172 days of service (172 days constitute a full year), meaning they’ll control his rights for six additional years.
To avoid having him be a “Super-Two” they’d have to wait until around the last week of July at the earliest.
Hot Tamales/16,
“I don’t think Minor is as polished as Beachy in the secondary pitches department.”
Eh. Beachy and Minor both throw a 3-pitch fastball, curveball, change-up mix. The change-up is the best pitch for both of them, the curveball is the worst. Minor’s change-up is better and he commands it well, Beachy commands his very well. Their curveballs are roughly equivalent at this point, fringe-average pitches at best, but Beachy definitely commands his curve better than Minor does.
I guess you could say Beachy is more polished WRT his secondary offerings. I think the more correct thing to say would be that Minor stands to gain more by spending some time in the minors working on commanding his curveball.
telemakhos/17,
I think they’re both roughly equivalent at the moment and I think Minor is the better bet long-term. Not that he will be the better pitcher long-term, just that he’s the better bet. That’s what I’ve said in the post and in the comments section of this thread. Don’t read between the lines, read my words and interpret them literally, and you’ll find that nowhere have I rejected the possibility of Beachy being the better future pitcher.
Mark Smith/18,
They’ve clearly considered service time in the past (even if they won’t say they have), even if they didn’t WRT Heyward.
raindawg722/19,
Yes. Though the new CBA may wipe out this rule anyway.
Any possibility to preserving Minor’s arm for later this season? Throw Beachy out there to start the season and monitor his IP and if need be shut him down after the AS break while limiting Minor’s IP in AAA and have a fresher 5th lefty starter for the back end of 2011? Just a thought.
Service time must have something to do with this as well. The fact that Heyward was called up may be because he is a position player and all stats point to the Braves extending him and will try and buy out his arb years + 1 or 2 of his FA years.
Bad phrasing on my part. What I meant was that it doesn’t seem to be an overriding concern. Sure, they take it into account, but they seem to prefer having the best team on the field.
Roger,
That is a possibility, yes.
Mark Smith,
I agree, and all things considered I doubt the service time thing is the reason they’re picking Beachy. They probably just want Minor to work on that curveball in the minors for now.
CAC,
If you are still around Orlando, could you ask around about Wagner? WTH is going on there and what’s taking him so long to file paperwork he said he was filing months ago.
Guys, I wouldn’t be shocked if Beachy got dealt, but I also wouldn’t doubt if JJ or DL got dealt. What if Beachy is serviceable? What if he’s better than we think? He’s only thrown 300 innings in his life!!! His upside is huge.
What if Minor tears up AAA, and Beachy is money? I think they hold on to both.
The guy that will get dealt is Delgado!
Trust me when I tell you this, Frank Wren, Bobby Cox, Roger McDowell, and Freddy G ALL love Beachy’s composure, character, and his ability to be strong mentally.
I’m not sure if Minor will ever have Beachy’s toughness and composure.
Remember, while Minor complained about being tired, Beachy sacked up and pitched a lot of quality innings in September, AND made the post season roster.
I guess there’s always a chance Beachy could get dealt, but at 24, he’s 13 years younger than DL’s $15 million a year contract. I think Beachy stays.
I can’t believe no one else sees this. The Braves are not trading any of their young pitchers . . . EVER! They’re just making ready for 2012 when they will release their secret weapon on the league:
The Eleven Man Rotation.
Every game will feature two starters splitting the up the game, except for every fifth game where there will be 3 pitchers:
Hanson/Hudson
Tehran/Jurjjens
Delgado/Minor
Beachy/Medlen
Vizcaino/Venters/Kimbrel
Unstoppable.
Also, “whilst” should never be used in a post about baseball, even when it’s use is proper . . . unless you wrote it. In which case it’s just the tops.
Read earlier that Buster Olney said we’re looking to deal Rodrigo Lopez? What could we possibly look for in return (probably not much)? And who would be looking? Haven’t seen anything since this morning.
I’m sure someone is looking for a 5th starter. Lopez logged 200 innings last year, that counts for something. The yankees could certainly use a starter lol
He’s only thrown 300 innings in his life!!! His upside is huge.
Are you implying his upside is huge because he’s only thrown 300 innings? That’s just a fallacy.
I don’t agree that his upside is huge, he doesn’t have front-line starter stuff and lacks a true swing-and-miss offering. He turns 25 this coming September, we’re not talking about some big-dicked teenager who every scout looks at and immediately says, “that guy’s going to be a star”. He’s got solid, mid-rotation upside all things considered.
The guy that will get dealt is Delgado!
Quite possibly, though you’re not going to fool any of the commenters here (self included) into thinking you actually know that for a fact.
…………
Just because a player performs well doesn’t mean he won’t be traded. You have to give value to get value and if Atlanta wants to use their pitching surplus to fill some of their holes next year, they’re going to need to trade a good pitcher. Otherwise they’re going to get some horse shit in return.
…………
This thread has been up for merely three hours and I am already fucking sick of hearing about Beachy’s toughness, composure, make up, character, mound presence, and various other intangibles that every amateur psychologist loves to pat them-self on the back for pretending to be able to recognize. Brandon Beachy is a guy I like a lot and I’ve even gone out of the way to applaud his intangibles before most people knew who he was and before almost everyone had seen him pitch, but can we PLEASE shut the hell up about intangibles and talk about baseball?
…………
BrockSamson/28,
Nice.
Clark/29,
No idea, really. I’m guessing a team with a hole in their rotation would be looking at Lopez and the Braves should only expect to get another spare part in return for him.
Mr. Sanchez,
I’ll ask but I doubt anyone is going to tell me anything we don’t already know (whether they’re withholding information or not).
Ah, Ben Nicholson-Smith put together a nice list of potential Rodrigo Lopez suitors.
Interesting that the Braves are shopping Lopez. We’re competing with ourselves in the SP trade market. I would think most teams looking for add’l starting pitching will take a cheap Lopez over KK and taking on part of his salary. The Braves must have promised him they’d trade him if he didn’t make the team out of ST.
could it be that, after watching minor tire at the end of the season last year that the braves are simply hoping to limit his innings at the start of the year and have him fresher for the stretch run?
not that that’s the main reason, just thought that was worth pointing out. it’s not like the guy is used to a heavy workload at this point in time.
I’m indifferent if either Minor or Beachy makes the squad out of spring training. I might be wrong (probably) but there shouldn’t be a marked difference between the two at the beginning of the year but I was hoping for a lefty in the rotation…This could just be posturing by the team to move Beachy or Lopez for a spare part or hopefully something a little more worthwhile if Beachy is included. We’ve got a surplus and although I don’t see a reason to trade anyone, I do see a way to strengthen our team with a trade.
Fast forward to next off season when we will need a starting SS and possibly a CF (If Schafer doesn’t have a good season this year). If Beachy was still around and pitched well he could be a good chip for FW to get a serviceable SS. The other option would be to trade JJ after he has a rebound season and get something in return before FA (Boras client).
Lopez could possibly get us a raw prospect?
I am assuming Lowe and Hudson are relatively unmovable due to their relative trade returns. Hanson and Jurrjens obviously won’t sign anything resembling a team friendly contract let alone before FA time. That really only leaves Minor/Beachy/Teheran/Delgado as trading for anything and beyond 2011. I doubt Teheran or Delgado either gets sent knowing how the SP may look beyond 2012.
A question I do have is, do people actually think the FA draft comp is going away in the next CBA? If so wouldn’t that be more of an incentive to trade Jurrjens sooner rather than later given the glut of pitching?
Why is everyone so down on Minor for letting people know he was tiring last season? It seems to me that the mark of a mature player is being frank about health and fatigue rather than saying “I feel fine!” and then going out and getting hurt or getting knocked around.
BBF: as CAC has pointed out numerous times, baseball players are usually not Mensa candidates. They view goIng out to play each day (even when they shouldn’t) as some asinine red badge of courage. The clubhouse culture demands it. If a guy has the gall to suggest something like “maybe I cant hit a baseball today since my f-ing wrist is broken (see Schafer, Jordan)” he’s a wimp, even though he’s doing the right thing. Minor was clearly gassed at the end of last year; his only “mistake” was admitting it. I personally am not down on him. However, it’s not difficult to imagine a bunch of pig-headed athletes feeling differently…
I’m absolutely shocked we’ve gone this far without someone saying, “I know! we should trade Lopez to the Yankees for Brett Gardner!”
Don’t get me wrong, I think Gardner is one hell of a baseball player, but Braves fans seem to have an unnatural lust for him that is somehow combined with the inability to understand his trade value. Bizarre phenomenon.
I like FBB’s theory that the Braves are just trying to limit Minor’s innings early in the year to keep him fresh.
One point re Super 2: if the Braves are going to play that game, putting Beachy on the roster at the beginning of the year helps push the relevant date up a bit, assuming he spends enough time in the minors later to keep him in Minor’s year. You don’t care if your lesser prospect is a Super 2. See the Nats and Storen and Strasburg last year. But I don’t think the Braves are doing that; they’re not waiting until July.
Steve /41: or in the Braves’ specific case … they had lost two of their top offensive weapons to injury and were playing in a pennant race in September on a combination of guile, duct tape and rubber bands. So for a rookie player to say he’s “tired” might tend to rub people the wrong way – fairly or not.
Burrito Brother and Hizouse,
If the idea is to limit innings for Minor, how does Beachy become the answer? The guy, as said above, only has 300 professional innings. He’s hasn’t spent a single full season as a starter in his career, and I’m pretty sure that includes college. So again, if we’re worried about a guy wearing down due to a MLB workload, I’m pretty sure Beachy would be a prime candidate for that and not likely to be able to give much more than 150 innings or so, if that. And perhaps have a Medlen style great initial run before blowing out an elbow mid year.
Oh, and CAC, thanks for at least asking. I wouldn’t expect them to be forthcoming, but this situation is getting deep into the WTF category. How long does it take to file paper work, and why won’t anyone say he’s having second thoughts about retirement when that’s something a blind man could see.
re Sanchez 45: The point isn’t that Beachy is more likely to be healthy after a full season; the point is that the Braves could care more about Minor’s health. They might rather have Minor than Beachy be healthy and fresh in September. When Minor comes up, Beachy goes to the minors or the bullpen.
I find it amusing and reassuring that the only areas of concern for the Braves are their #5 rotation spot (split between 2+ fine candidates), utility spots (split between several replacement players), and CF (split between a former all-star and replacement players).
Makes for a very unexciting blogging, but what can you do?
@42, I was thinking the exact same thing. Officially starting #lopez4gardner.
I’d like to see Minor as the #5 just because he is a lefty. It would give us the ability to switch it up a bit against lefty heavy lineups.
I also don’t see Beachy being a good candidate to trade, at this point. JJ will most likely be gone after this year and with Hanson now working with evil Mr. Boras, who knows what’ll happen? All signs point to this year being the breakout year for him. Let’s be honest, if he would have had the runs to work with that the Braves put up in the first half of the season, he would have been a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
I say give Minor the nod and let Beachy start the year in Gwinnett. Call him up later and he’ll be a lock as a starter next year when JJ leaves.
In regards to service time, two things to consider that haven’t been mentioned:
1.) the cutoff date for Super 2 status isn’t determined until the year in question….2.5 years after the initial callup. Hanson’s won’t be determined until after this season. it has been moving steadily later. Jay Bruce was held back, and unexpectedly got Super 2 status anyway. Hanson may get it as well (this would be an huge obstacle to an extension, IF Hanson/Boras has any interest in one, as there would be too much of an unknown $ amount that will be known by the end of the season. i’m sure Boras has someone charting every players service time.) (didn’t Hanson get sent down to the minors for some short stretch, i think b/c of the All-Star break and some minor injury? so he might not even have missed a start, but maybe this was damping his service time as the FO realized this trend?)
2.) upcoming labor negotiations are expected to alter this stuff, before any savings would materialize. the players hate that deserving players are held back to save money.
3.) you can hold back a player so that they go from 3 years of service time to Super 2 status. this is a fixed number, not a floating one like the difference between two years and Super 2. the new new trend (the new one being Super 2 manipulation) is to hold back for 2 weeks, not till June.