Playing Pessimist
March 25, 2011 at 7:16 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Just a few weeks ago, the Phillies were the consensus favorite in the NL East. Everyone loved them – after all, they have the best starting rotation of all time. Suddenly, we’ve learned that both Chase Utley and Brad Lidge appear to be headed to the DL and things quickly shifted.
Rather than talking up the “Four Aces” that the Phillies have or the powerful offense that includes the likes of Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino, writers have quickly taken to trashing the Phils. They’ve suddenly turned into a team that has a questionable offense after coming to the realization that Howard has come back to earth in recent years, Ibanez is 38, and James Calvin Rollins has been on a three year slide, and the bullpen is made up of patchwork.
After Buster Olney’s “daring” prediction that the Braves “may beat out” the Phillies in the NL East, shit has hit the fan. Instantly, everyone is realizing the Phillies “phlaws” (I can’t help myself from making those jokes) and hopping on the Braves bandwagon.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but those making these bold predictions have failed to look at the Braves in the same way:
Catcher: Brian McCann had eye issues for a good chunk of last season. Who’s to say those won’t return?
First Base: Freddie Freeman is a rookie. Need I say more about the typical production of rookies?
Second Base: Dan Uggla isn’t very good defensively.
Third Base: Chipper Jones hasn’t played since August 10, 2010 and hit just .265 with 10 home runs prior to suffering a season-ending knee injury.
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez came out of nowhere to hit 23 home runs last year. Too bad only six of those were for the Braves.
Left Field: Martin Prado has played 3 career games in left field prior to this year. We can only pray that he will cost the Braves less runs defensively than Troy Glaus did at first base last year.
Center Field: Nate McLouth hit below the Mendoza Line last year.
Right Field: Although Jason Heyward was named to the All-Star team in his first season in the big leagues, he’s battled a handful of nagging injuries so far this spring.
Bench: Outside of Eric Hinske, there aren’t very many reliable bats.
Starting Rotation: Tim Hudson was incredibly lucky last year. Derek Lowe gets paid a lot. Tommy Hanson had some really, really bad starts last year. Jair Jurrjens is experiencing injuries in March. Just one year ago, no one knew who Brandon Beachy was.
Bullpen: Scott Proctor may have a role. Scott Linebrink hasn’t been the same since 2005. George Sherrill isn’t very good, especially against right handed batters. Eric O’Flaherty and Johnny Venters both posted career best numbers last year. Craig Kimbrel doesn’t even know where his slider will cross the plate.
Let’s let this one play out before we start to celebrate the first of another NL East Division Champs streak.
Notes: I already know that you will probably hate me for doing this, but get real. Instead, let’s make jokes about the flaws of the Mets in the comments.
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We need Pagan!
Their opening day starter has a career 95 ERA+.
Chipper also had a .381 OBP (also look at the website tagline). We got 1.9 fWAR out of SS last season and a 75 wRC+, i don’t think we can do any worse. We got -1.4 fWAR out of CF last season, 79 wRC+. Hinkse and Melky produced a -22.4, -20.8 UZR/150. -4, -5 DRS. Again, can’t do any worse. Yes there are concerns, but with the amount of dead weight that we dropped of the roster i don’t think we have will have reason to believe we will be any worse than last year.
Didn’t realize Mark Bradley had joined the CAC staff.
Luke,
I was surprised that it took four comments for someone to make that joke. Thank you.
Can we stop crowning the champion before the season starts and play some games? Yes, both teams have flaws. Both teams also have more strengths than others. This just means it should be a very interesting and competitive season. I was tired of the Phillies being crowned WS champs before ST started. I haven’t heard as much since about the Braves being crowned as I have about the Phillies’ phrailty.
It reminds me of a guy from New York I went to college with. Every year, he’d tell me how the Mets were finally going to end the Braves’ streak. I’d basically say how we have a pretty good team too and it should be competitive. And, every year at the end of the season, it would seem like he was avoiding me.
Does anyone realize that Kevin is playing devil’s advocate? It says clearly in the title, “Playing Pessimist.” It’s a reality check, not a prediction.
Jabuck,
Indeed. This team is very good on paper and should be one of the best in the NL.
A reminder that things don’t always go according to plan is both productive and healthy. Let’s not confuse “what could go wrong” with “what will go wrong”.
@2: You’re an impostor.
At least we don’t have Garrett Anderson, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francouer manning the outfield spots.
@8
that’s the “dream team” for the Royal’s outfield. They couldn’t convince Garrett Anderson to unretire.
Kudos, Ryan.
The Phillies rotation should guarentee them 90 wins…although I feel the same about the Braves. the other 3 teams look like 75 win clubs.
My three concerns for the Braves – Chipper playing 130 games, Nate being 2010 Nate, and Jason Heyward.Freddie Freeman joint production
Catcher: Josh Thole can hit anything two balls off the plate.
First base: Ike Davis plays great defense.
Second base: Who the heck plays 2nd base for the Mets?
Shortstop: Jose Reyes *just* made a Web Gem for my MLB 2K11 Braves Franchise on PS3.
Third base: David Wright is a class act that gets a lot of hits when no one is on base and the game has a +/-5 run differential.
Left field: Jason Bay has not missed a belt-high, hanging breaking ball since he was with the Pirates.
Center field: Angel Pagan actually *is* a decent ballplayer.
Right field: Carlos Beltran is still a switch hitter…I think.
Starting pitching: A knuckleballer AND they do not have Oliver Perez.
Bullpen: The phone works.
Bench: Johan Santana is on it.
Front Office: Managed to get Madoffed and keep their jobs.
Derek Lowe is paid a lot? Yeah, and Liberty Media’s market capitalization dipped 2.4% in Q4 2010. What does Lowe’s salary have to do with who will win the East?
Glad I could oblige Kevin. I too was surprised that a similar comment hadn’t already been made.
All of your points are valid, even if it reminds me of a typical Bradley “turd in the punchbowl” column (which, obviously, is what you were going for).
Kieren did you really buy MLB2k11 for PS3? If so, you should have gotten The Show.
Luke, that was the only typo in my whole post, I think. Only a Mets fan would by 2K11. I bought the one with Mauer on the cover. I was not sober when I bought it. I cannot remember the title.
I totally get what your saying, but talking about what happened to each individual player last year as if it’s a possible precursor to future struggles and noticing how all of the sudden the Phillies are banged up and one-dimensional offensively are two different things. People are noticing that once you get past Howard there really isn’t much to fear in that lineup, Utley being on the DL and all. They can have the Fantastic Four, or whatever you want to call them, but it’s hard to win games when you can’t score runs. That’s what people are looking at and that’s why they are turning to the more balanced Braves.
Ryan,
My main point is that everyone keeps talking about how the Phillies are trending downward and just automatically assume that the wins they’ll lose to injury equates to the difference between the expectations of them and the Braves. It’s obscene how many people talk about how great the Braves are without expressing any of the concerns that they express with the Phillies. Hopefully the Braves can avoid those concerns.
Dude, a few years ago I’d be all for making fun of the Mets, but now it feels kinda like kicking Tsunami Victims.
Also, since you didn’t mention Moylan, he’s obviously the best player ever!
I have a lot of respect for Moylan, mainly because he’s Australian. He’s easily the guy who I think is the most entertaining human on the team.
Ryan Howard is an overrated hitter IMO. Career 136 wRC+. Chipper’s is 144.
Howard is a good slugger but doesn’t get on base enough to be in the same conversation with Fielder, Votto, Pujols, Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, and a few other elite-hitting first basemen that I’m sure I’m missing. Let’s not forget that Citizens Bank Park plays as a hitter’s park.
Oh yeah, the 5-year, $125 million contract extension doesn’t start until next year, which is hilarious.
EDIT: That’s not to say Ryan Howard isn’t good, he is. He’s just not “oh my god I’m shitting my pants because Ryan Howard is coming to the plate right now” good.
The real crime with the Mets is that no one realized they were a shelter for Bernie Madoff’s schemes. I mean c’mon, somebody should have realized the “funny” math involved with the mets.
Plus there’s this: http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110325&content_id=17112154&vkey=news_nym&c_id=nym
Why did you waste your time writing an article that dis-encourages braves fans. Negative Nancy. please write a more encouraging article next time for instance
Catcher; Brian McCann- five time all-star at age 27
First base- Freeman- great defense and power
Second base- Uggla- it’s DAN UGGLA BABY, nuff said
Short- gonzalez- Great defense and good 2010 season
Third- Larry- Looking like an MVP so far this spring
Left- Martin Prado- 2010 NL all star and hitting machine
Center- Mclouth- determined to have a bounce back year, and it looks like he will judging by his spring training performance
Right- Heyward- FUTURE MVP
Starting rotation- Hudson(just plain Stud), Lowe (dependable STUD), Hanson(Future Cy Young STUD), JJ (Young STUD), and of course Beachy(Rookie STUD)
Bullpen- Kimbrel, Venters, Moylan, O’flaherty( stud, stud, stud, stud)
I was going to write an optimistic article tomorrow, but you just did it for me. Thanks.
Honestly, the only thing that could make Moylan more entertain is if he threw a knuckleball…
Or if he named his pitches with human names.
Oh wait……
“It’s Dan Uggla baby”…quite possibly the most ridiculous endorsement of human performance EVER….
Perhaps I’m being too harsh. One moment please….IT’S STEVE GEDDIE, BABY…..
Nope, it still sucks….
There’s a big difference between the question marks you list for the Braves and the reality that Lidge and Utley start on the DL for the Phillies.
The Marlins cannot be forgotten. Florida teams with no fans seem to have a way to get back to the top. I cannot for the life of me figure out how the Marlins come back from the dead. But they do, and they are coming again. That being said, I hate to hope for injuries to help us win the division, but if it happens, it happens.
I’ll admit the Marlins continue to improve, but their defense is so poor that it’s hard to believe that they are in the same tier as the Braves and Phillies.
Kevin,
What in the above article do you actually believe will come to fruition?
I’m pretty optimistic about the season overall. Nate’s showing in ST has really been quite encouraging, and Chipper seems to be ready to go.
I keep coming back to the bullpen as one of my areas of concern, but I think I just need to get over the fact the Wags is gone and accept that the young guys are, in all probability, gonna be pretty good.
You’re right on the money regarding the Braves.
The thing that people are missing about the Phillies is that their former template of mediocre starting pitching and a constantly in-use bullpen is that they’ve dramatically altered the way they’re going about winning games; with that starting pitching the offense doesn’t HAVE to be as dominant; they’ll still score enough runs to win.
The Braves are contenders—I think they’ll win the Wild Card—but beating the Phillies? Don’t see it.
As of Feb. 26, the Vegas over/under for wins was 97.5 for the Phillies, and 87.5 for the Braves. Does anyone know what the current over/under is? I’d trust the Vegas estimates for wins more than anyone else’s.
Which fringe signing/trade do you guys think will give the Braves the biggest impact this season?
-Sherrill, Proctor, Linebrink, someone else?
I don’t pay attention to the talking heads. I didn’t tell them to hop on our bandwagon and take us when all the injuries cropped up for the Phils. As a fan I err on the side of optimism regarding the Braves. I’m not saying we’re going to win the division, but I think we have a damn good team.
Every team has questions. Spring training obviously isn’t the firm answer to any of them, but going into the season we have pretty good cause to be optimistic about Chipper’s productivity, McLouth’s rebound, and Derek Lowe’s effectiveness due to the ‘rediscovery’ of his slider. Uggla is a defensive liability – that isn’t going to change, but he makes up for it with his offensive output which has been pretty steady. Is there really anything that indicates that Prado is going to be a trainwreck in LF? I’ll take a league average or slightly below performance from him, and I don’t think that is entirely too optimistic to expect. McCann had eye issues and STILL put together a solid season last year. Freeman is a rookie and will struggle, but luckily we have players to pick up the slack.
When the Phillies are healthy they clearly are the better team on paper, but you can’t say that one is in better shape than the other in terms of question marks right now. That’s why there is a divide among people choosing Braves/Phillies, and I don’t think it is a stretch to say that there isn’t a clear-cut favorite right now to take the division. I’d much rather be in a position to hope that good play from ST carries over than guessing when my injured guys will be returning.
Now the Braves beating the Phillies does not even have to happen in the NL East or in the regular season because there has always been a month called October,where anything has always been possible no matter what.The Braves will either share the wealth by giving the Phillies the NL East and the Braves taking the world series title or the Braves will just show zero mercy by taking the world series title and the NL East.GO BRAVESNATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey Josh there has always been a huge difference between teams being good on paper and teams being good in October, especially if the Phillies end up winning the NL East and the Braves winning the world series.I as a Braves fan has always been totally better off seeing the Braves win the world series, especially since this Braves team has already gone about 14 and a half years without a world series title because that has always been what the Braves have wanted to see,whether it’s a championship or an October appearance that way they can have a shot at a winning it all.
ChuckO,
Phillies are down to 96.5, Braves still at 87.5. If you asked the SweetSpoters, two of the most obvious bets out there are Phillies under and Braves over.
…………
I’d trust the Vegas estimates for wins more than anyone else’s.
Those over/unders are established to maximize Vegas’s profit, rather than predict where each team will actually finish.
I think the determing factor is who each team has to fill-in/replace it’s holes.
The Phillies can’t replace Utley. or any of their holes really, but i don’t really know their farm so correct me if i’m wrong. The Braves, on the other hand, can. If Chipper gets hurt, Prado slides to 3rd. If one, or more, of the veteran relievers can’t cut it, Abreu, Ascencio, and Marek are ready to step in. If McLouth sucks again, at some point we can just cut him loose and eat the salary, an option we didn’t have last year. and we have plenty of farm depth for any trade we might want.
It’s a long season, and we’re the ones set up to adjust to what ever misfortune occurs, not the Phillies.
@41: the one thing that I look at with the Utley situation is that the Phillies picked up Castillo after the Mets cut him. If that’s not a telling sign about the depth they have on their utility/back-up roles, I don’t know what is.
Is anyone else kind of nauseated by the term “stud” in baseball terminology? Since you know, the term comes from breeding in animal husbandry. When used in tandem by Mr Carey’s with his favorite word “fisted”, disastrous results could come as a result.
Also see: John Madden’s ridiculous sayings, for example “the running back needs to find a hole and pound it up the middle.”
I agree with the guy that said don’t pick’em before the season starts. That’s about as useful as pre-season NCAA rankings, they don’t mean squat. It just means, for the moment, you impressed a few people that have some authority to make those rankings and predictions.
However, I’m a Braves fan and I would not go as far as to say that Atlanta has anything locked up over the Phillies. These two battled it out all year and when it got to the end in 2010, Atlanta folded to the Phlukies. Yes, we had injuries to key players and the Phils were healthier, not necessarily healthy, but healthier than Atlanta was. But Atlanta also under produced offensively and defensively (need I remind anyone of the play of Brooks Conrad). Derek Lee was atrocious until the last week, Gonzalez did nothing for much of the second half, Prado played injured for a month, and Heyward seemed to sit on the thought that he was going to be the NL ROY, until Buster busted loose.
I agree, both teams have issues and the only thing I see that could seriously jeopardize the Phils chances is if one or two of their Aces go down. Not having Utley definitely hurts, not having Lidge definitely hurts, but if any of the four get injured at any point, and if Hamels can’t put to good halves together, the Phils will be in trouble.
But the same goes for Atlanta as well. Chipper has been on fire this Spring, BUT…there’s always that but…he is 39 now. Who knows. I think Prado will be fine in the outfield, but I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw he and Uggla eventually switch. Yes, Freeman is a rookie so you can’t expect too much. I would be ecstatic with Ryan Howard-like rookie numbers, if we’re lucky, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s going to be fun, whatever happens, just so long as Atlanta and Phillie are in the hunt at the end and maybe both make it. Let’s Go Bravos!!!
The Mets show poor etiquette in crowded theatres.
The Mets enjoy foods high in transfats.
Certainly some flaws with both teams. Our defense altogether and depth is definitely worrisome. We are going to be below average at probably the second most important defensive position and below average at both second and third, unless Chipper is injured in which case the lack of depth comes back to hurt us.
The team is set up well though, better than any Braves team has been set up since probably 2004. There are worries from every member of the pitching staff aside from Tommy Hanson, with the least worrisome probably being Venters.
The good thing is that the Braves have a ton of pitching depth in the majors and minors which will be needed by some team eventually this year. When something goes wrong, the pieces are available to be moved in order to fix said problem.
My biggest thing is that this team is certainly better than last year. They should have one ~93 games last year according to pythag record, and they improved in the offseason.
Things have to go bad in order for them to not make the playoffs, which is really all you can ask with their current payroll situation.
@43 agreed, that reminds me of Matt Stairs’ quote, “you’re getting your ass hammered by guys, there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”
The best ever being Gary Mathews Sr: “”Whats gonna happen is you jerk off the ball, almost wanna let this guy here jam you and if it comes it comes!”
Since nobody really is saying the Braves are going to beat the Phils, there’s no need to write this article. Bit of an overreaction.
The Braves will be lucky to win the wild card again, forget the division. The Phils could trot out a AAA line up and still hang the pennant with their pitching.
But it is spring training where hope spring eternal and the Braves are a better team than they were last year. No denying that.
Since nobody really is saying the Braves are going to beat the Phils, there’s no need to write this article. Bit of an overreaction.
Incorrect. Many people are picking the Braves, self included. Even if people weren’t picking the Braves, pointing out what could go wrong while were in the midst of spring training and everyone is lionizing everything is productive.
The Braves will be lucky to win the wild card again, forget the division. The Phils could trot out a AAA line up and still hang the pennant with their pitching.
Maybe if all 4 of their good starters stay healthy. That rarely happens.
Okay, quick! Name the #6 starter the Phillies will need to use when one of their starters goes down.
Kyle Kendrick is not exactly a guy that strikes fear in opposing hitters.
There has never been guarantees on starting pitching no matter how good your starting rotation is because you cannot even win in baseball without a totally solid/dominant closer, as I pointed out earlier, because that Phillies bullpen will be a mess when the season gets underway.Their bullpen won’t even be able to hold leads late plenty of times, while the Braves will be a totally better team overall the the Phillies starting in 2011 and beyond, especially since the Braves have a very good rotation, bullpen and an offense that will be hitting balls out of the ballpark, driving in RBI’s and getting timely base hits.GO BRAVESNATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Listen fans … We who have followed baseball know that nothing is a given. However, Brian McCann had a down year last year. Jason Heyward is one year more mature and experienced. Chipper was only struggling due to an injury and is already tearing it up this spring and if McClouth and Gonzales give us anything we will be on the plus side with them. Lets not forget that with all this, you can now plug Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla into the heart of the order with two young hitters with some power. Heyward and Freeman will be fine because they are GOING to get pitches to hit in this lineup. Trust me!!! The last time we had a lineup with even close to this much pop we all watched rookie sensation Jeff Francour knock the ball all over the field. Protection matters people. Oh and let us all remember that Martin Prado is not going to slow down. He is just hitting his baseball prime.He has always produced, even off the bench. I wish we could have kept Infante but we got power in return. And again, protection matters!!!
Tim Hudson has never been a question in his career. Derick Lowe is an innings eater and has shown no signs of slowing down from his last 5 games of last year. Tommy Hanson will be really good at times and really bad at times. That’s a given. Our season will hinge on two things. Leadoff hitter Nate McClouth has got to get his OBP up and we have got to shut down teams in the last 3 innings. Both signs look positive so far. But at the end of the year it always adds up to how many one run games you win and how many you lose. It always starts at the beginning of your lineup and ends with the back end of your bullpen. That’s the key to winning this year as it is every year.
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