2011 X Factor – Nate McLouth
March 27, 2011 at 6:04 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
2011 Atlanta Braves X FACTOR: Nate McLouth
Although McLouth hit just .190/.298/.322 last season, the Braves have decided to keep him as the only center field option on the Opening Day roster.
As we all know, last year was an endless struggle for Nate McLouth. It wasn’t until late September when he hit .273, matching his HR total of three during the previous five months of the season and quickly stole three bases, showing signs of his old self. Despite his late season surge, he still finished the year hitting. 190/.298/.322 with a -1.3 WAR.
Remember Melky Cabrera? Well he was horrific at the plate and in the field, but McLouth was so bad at one point, that on July 27, 2010 the Braves optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett and Cabrera began playing center field and ultimately finished the year playing 385 innings at the most important outfield position.
McLouth is simply the X Factor for the Braves at this point. New manager Fredi Gonzalez has displayed his faith in McLouth, inserting him in the two hole behind All-Star Martin Prado. Not only is he now hitting in the top half of the lineup, he’s also the only center field option on the roster.
While there are a few emergency center fielders currently on the roster (Matt Young, Jason Heyward, etc.), I don’t expect any of them to receive significant playing time between the corners.
The Braves have made every move conceivable to make McLouth aware that they have faith in him, and so far it’s paid off. This spring, the former Pirate has put up a .310/.414/.448 mark, along with a stolen base and just three strikeouts.
Every indicator to this point shows that McLouth is due to rebound, but only time will tell. With all of these things taken into consideration, it’s clear that he’s the Braves X Factor for 2011.
Who/what do you feel is the X Factor for the Braves this year? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
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.273/.359/.527
McLouth’s September stats.
.310/.414/.448
McLouth’s spring stats, as noted above.
Two and a half bad months of baseball should not completely destroy his value or expectations amongst fans. Good players have slumps, his was just tremendously bad and oddly long.
He should be in for a typical McLouth year, which is ~.355 wOBA, ~3.5 fWAR.
Considering the Braves had -1.4 fWAR from center field last year — second lowest in baseball and lowest in the NL — the net improvement of possibly 4 wins will likely be the biggest difference betweem this year’s team and last year’s.
Are we sure that McLouth is actually going to bat second? It wasn’t just a hypothetical? Is Jayson Heyward actually going to bat sixth?
And one last question: How am I supposed to watch the Braves without an overwhelming irritation that our young, future/present star outfielder is losing at-bats to Nate McLouth?
I’ll take a stab to answer atlrod’s questions.
1. Yes, McLouth is batting second until something changes. It’s been discussed, and it isn’t the smart decision, but in the end all it doesn’t affect the win total too much — unless it forces Heyward to change is approach as Larry Parrish suggested in an interview yesterday.
2. Because right now, McLouth is more valuable than Jordan Schafer and he is being paid substiantially more. It doesn’t make sense for Jordan to be in the majors if he isn’t playing every day, and it is hard to expect Jordan to accumulate ~3.5 fWAR even in a full-time role this year. That is a reasonable expectation for McLouth.
Hopefully Jordan gets a full season of plate appearances and is able to take the job next year and never look back, but for now the Braves are definitely making the correct decisions. McLouth is better than what Braves fans have seen from him.
Oh my God… I’m not believing this…
Matt Young and Brandon Hicks, the two guys playing the best baseball of the bench players, and Christhian Martinez, who is NOT Scott Proctor, all made the team.
How many times in recent memory do any of you remember a time when the players that deserved to make the team actually MADE the team?
Brings a little tear to my eye…
Tell me a player who after six seasons in the league dropped as dramatically as Nate did and rebounded to be good, not just ok, but a good player?
Reggie Sanders? His Braves season wasn’t as bad as Nate’s. But that’s the closest example I can think of.
I just don’t trust Nate in CF, batting 2nd, or playing 140 plus games.
Yeah, I dont think making Nate confident by batting him 2nd is worth losing all of those ABs that should go to Heyward (who has more power, MUCH higher OBA, runs fast, scares pitchers, protects Chipper, eats babies, etc).
I’m not terribly irate about it, though. I can understand why they’d want such a good run producer in the 6th spot… but with Seabass and Freeman batting behind him, he’s gonna get walked a ton and not get anything to hit.
Oh, I forgot… Georgia Sherrill made the roster and Stephen Marek, Jairo Ascencio, and Juan Abreu didnt. I spoke too soon.
And before I get jumped, I know they are all RHPs and Sherrill is a LHP… but like I’ve said many times before: it doesnt matter which hand you pitch with if you can get batters out.
@ Ben Duronio 3
I think the poster before you was not complaining about McLouth getting at bats instead of Schafer, he was complaining about him getting at bats instead of Heyward (by batting 2nd instead of 6th and thus getting more plate appearances over the course of the year).
Proctor? Proctor? Anyone seen Proctor? That’s what I thought !!!!
Shunson,
Let’s clear something up right now. George Sherrill is an effective reliever if he’s facing left-handed hitters, that’s what they brought him in to do. In his career he’s limited left-handed hitters to a .500 OPS. Last year he limited them to a .573 OPS. End. Of. Discussion.
X Factor – the health of the starting rotation.
JJ has already brought this one into focus unfortunately. As we’re immediately faced with the prospect of two rookie starters out of the gate. If we lose anybody else for any significant amount of time, this team’s strength will be put to the true test. Got to have our studs out there or we’re just another team with a couple of good starters and a couple of ok ones.
yeah Nate is probably the biggest X Factor on the team.
Here is what we got from each position last year:
C – 7.0 fWAR (1st)
1B – 2.1 fWAR
2B – 6.6 fWAR (1st)
SS – 1.9 fWAR
3B – 7.2 fWAR (3rd)
RF – 5.0 fWAR
CF – (-1.4 fWAR) next to last (indians, -2.0)
LF – 0.4 fWAR
Looking at those numbers i’d say Nate and the Bench are the biggest X Factors. We still have Hinske and Ross, but losing Omar and his 2.7 fWAR last season was a big blow i think. He wasn’t going to reproduce those numbers but i think we really do need another quality bench player.
I’m ready to say that the strength of this team is it’s offense. Not that I disagree with your point, chopaholic (though Jurrjens shouldn’t miss much time).
heh well looking at the splits for the positions it looks like fangraphs doesn’t break up the time spent at each position. it counts Martin for 3.9 fwar at 3rd and 2nd. Anyway, my point still stands.
I think the team splits by position are correct.
The biggest issue of the season is whether Tommy Hanson stays healthy and isn’t diagnosed as a TJ case. He’s our best pitcher, so we have to rely on him a lot… but if he makes it past this season (age 25) he will be in good shape to avoid ligament damage.
I don’t view Hanson as much of an injury concern, or any of the starters outside of Jurrjens for that matter, hence the reason I didn’t choose them as the X Factor. This was a question that we were asked to answer by ESPN, and I viewed it as which player or “factor” is the one that could really sway things either way that really could go either way. I also contemplated Chipper’s health, but even without him, they have some depth and can plug in multiple options (Prado to third and one of many to left field). I figured that McLouth could provide the biggest up or down for the club this year.
Well, CAC, while I disagree with the presentation of your argument I understand its purpose. However, my reponse to that is two words: Kyle Farnsworth.
In Game 2 of the NLDS last year, he was all that was left and had to pitch something like 1 and 2/3 innings to close out the game while we all nearly crapped ourselves.
In other words, just because Sherrill was brought in to specifically face lefties doesnt mean there’s not going to be times that he goes an inning out of necessity… and I dont trust him to get three outs without runs scoring first if he has to.
@8 Indeed, misread what he was suggesting.
Looking at the numbers @Jabuk put up, here’s my quick projections on fWAR being O/U those.
C-Even
1B-Over
2B-Under
3B-Under
SS-Over
LF-Over
CF-Over
RF-Over
The team improved offensively and probably defensively as well from last year, despite Uggla stepping in for Infante/Prado at 2B. Freeman’s improvement over Glaus is huge as is the expected improvement of Prado over Hinske/Melky/Diaz, although that is not quite certain yet — just going by what I feel I’ve seen in ST.
The offense could be the league’s best to be honest. The pitching staff is solid, but there are definitely injury risks with the two on the wrong side of 35 and Jurrjens.
Having movable prospects is probably the biggest overall strength of this team.
So we get Scott Diamond back then?
So we get Scott Diamond back then?
Not necessarily. The Twins have to offer him back to the Braves for $25,000 which they will obviously accept, however, there are reports that the Twins are interested in keeping him through a trade. Now they will evaluate what the Twins have to offer and go from there.
Kevin, With limited amount of LHP in the Braves upper minors that could be ready in the near future, do you think the Braves will play hard ball to get SD back i.e. demand a prospect that is well above SD’s worth from the twins?
Personally the net $25k gain by the Braves while giving SD a fresh look at how another org operates was a win-win for the Braves.
McLouth will be an asset this season and there is no reasons to suggest he can’y get back close to his career .259 BA (Pre 2010) but more importantly the .800 OPS would be lovely.
While the Braves hold an option for McLouth next year the chances of that being exercised seems very remote (I think it is $10m) so McLouth needs to bounce back to have any sort of value in FA.
@11/ Well at least we haven’t traded KK yet ; )
Those team splits are in no way correct.
Team batting WAR at 22.0. Those top numbers are 28.8. There another -4.4? I believe I saw from pitchers. That would put the Braves at 24.4 batting WAR but 22.0 as a team? That makes no sense.
Also if you look at the splits by position the Braves had 354 games and 1215 PA’s from 3b? I know Prado was good last year, but he didn’t put up 4WAR in September and int he spot starts across the year at 3b. It’s just adding the aggregate of all players who “qualified” at that position.
If you want any more logical evidence, Chipper was 2.7war and outside of any DH games which I don’t recall off the top of my head, that was all 3b. That leaves 4.5 3b war to be split amongst Prado and others. Prado had around 350 innings at 3rd and Infante about 150. 4.5 WAR from those two in about 50 games? I loves me some Braves, but that Bonds territory.
Also I meant batter/fielder war instead of just batting war.
Also I can’t read a chart, they lost 3.2 from pitchers not 4.4.
Everything looks good except for Sherrill. 9.00 in Spring Training, over 6 ERA last year AND RH batters hit over .400 against him. Those figures were from an entire year.
What is it about Sherrill that just doesn’t scream RAG ARM?
Is this accurate? (waivers)
From MLBtraderumors:
“Atlanta originally signed Diamond as an undrafted free agent back in 2007. If the Twins are unable to work out a trade to keep him, he would have to first clear waivers and be offered back to the Braves before he could go to the minors.”
26: That’s definitely accurate if the Twins want to send him to the minors. Not so clear that that’s how it works if the Braves claim him back, though. And in terms of priority, my impression is that the Braves have a first refusal option before other teams get a chance to grab him off waivers.
@26 what mlbtraderumours are saying seems to be different to what DOB wrote in the article that CAC reposted last week? I thought the braves had first refusal but will have to pay $25k to the twins.
To my knowledge, he has to clear waivers first, which he has already done.
Regarding McLouth, I’m skeptical of a rebound based upon what I’ve seen of him in the two spring training games that I’ve watched. Though Parrish and the Braves are trying to get him to take a more level swing on the ball, he’s still uppercutting it and hitting flyballs instead of line drives. As Chipper put it last September, he should be trying to hit the ball through the fence, not over it.
McLouth should rebound. Although he was never as good as was suggested with his Gold Glove and man-crush from that noted “expert” Mike Francesa, he’ll again be a competent player defensively with pop.
The X-Factor is Freddie Freeman. He has to hit. If he doesn’t, the Braves will be short offensively despite the acquisition of Dan Uggla. Chipper Jones cannot be counted on; if they have to start moving pieces around, they can’t replace both the third baseman and first baseman; they’d have to make a trade for a Prince Fielder, something I’m sure they’d prefer NOT to do.
@ Paul / 32
I’m not sure what qualifications are for Freeman “to hit”, but if he puts up similar numbers to the Troy Glaus/Derrek Lee tandem (wOBA .338) with his plus defense, I think that’s all we should expect for the rookie first baseman.
To note, most of the projections (Marcel, Bill James, Fans [if that even counts]) have him around that offensive number.
Also, if you check out Freeman’s page on Baseball Reference, looks like CAC is expecting a ROY performance out of the young man.
ChuckO –
Hasn’t McLouth always had that uppercut? I don’t think anyone here is suggesting that he’s fixed all his issues and is going to have a breakout season. We’re just expecting him to normalize to something that’s closer to his career averages than what he put up last year.
Even if McLouth doesn’t rebound, the Braves’ offense is still in good shape, certainly no worse than last season, provided everyone remains reasonably healthy.
Uggla is essentially taking the plate appearances that were given to the likes of Melky and Diaz. That’s obviously a significant upgrade.
At worst it seems Freeman won’t be a noticeable downgrade from the production the Braves got out of firstbase throughout 2010.
Even if Chipper goes down, Prado moves to third so there would be no downgrade there. Hinske and whoever else plays leftfield in the event of a major injury to Chipper probably won’t be any less productive than the likes of Melky and Diaz.
So unless there are major injuries to Heyward, Prado, McCann and Uggla (even if McLouth doesn’t bounce back much at all or Chipper goes down) the Braves should be among the top half in runs per game.
If things go reasonably well with McLouth and Chipper, and there are no major injuries to anyone else, they’ll be one of the top 3-4 offenses in the league.
The reason McLouth may be an X Factor is because Fredi seems intent on hitting him second. Those extra few wins that hitting Heyward sixth may cost the Braves could be the X Factor.
Personally, I believe the Braves should have the top offensive club in the National League even over the park aided Reds and Rockies. I don’t even mention the Phillies as I think they are going to be a mess offensively.
Assuming the core of Prado, Heyward, Mccann and Uggla stays relatively healthy I think they can withstand injuries and poor play from Chipper and Mclouth.
here and elsewhere punditry prattles on about Nate while completely ignoring his greatest liability…
he can’t throw…
he literally can’t throw, in anger…
he can’t release the ball, hard, to a base, in a r/l situation…
he’ll fake a throw, wait for the situation on the bases to resolve itself, the lob it back in…
he’s phobic…Sax redux…
i happen to like Nate and agree there’s a fair chance he’ll hit this year…but even if he does we’re going to have to replace him…
because he can’t throw.
@38, were you trying to recite a poem for us?
Braves got Billy Bullock in exchange for Diamond
“Bullock, 23, put up a 3.53 ERA, 12.8 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 74 relief innings for the Twins’ High-A and Double-A clubs last year. BA ranked Bullock 15th among Twins prospects, praising his repertoire but questioning his command. Having swapped their #15 prospect for their 29th best, the Twins clearly don’t agree with Baseball America’s rankings in this case.”
blazon/38,
Yes, his arm is weak and he’s been tenuous about using it. That is not a bigger liability than hitting .190/.298/.322 again would be. Not even remotely close to close.
Site’s tagline has been changed to something more topical and current.
@CAC
Isn’t Minnesota the least advanced stat minded organization (I know Atlanta isn’t exactly leading the way either)? Did Diamond just have too much grit to let him go?
lol love it. Such a weird trade for the Twins.
Gregor Blanco has been placed on waivers by the Royals. That move really runs counter to their strategy of having a full roster of former Braves.
Oh, lord. I hope that slips past the DOB blog denizens. Otherwise, I’m sure there were be a number of calls for the Braves to pick him up again.
Have they waived Frenchy’s corpse yet? Or is he still passing around extra copies of his Sports Illustrated cover? The Natural (Disaster).
Ryan/43,
Isn’t Minnesota the least advanced stat minded organization
I’d say so. They were the last of the 30 organizations to hire a full time statistician.
(I know Atlanta isn’t exactly leading the way either)
That’s not really accurate, they just don’t talk about it much. John Coppolella:
“we explore any and all statistics that may be relevant to a given player. We are on the cutting edge of newer, advanced stats and have created some of our own statistics and formulas, which obviously we cannot discuss. I think that portraying the Braves as hostile to statistics and sabermetrics couldn’t be further from the truth.”
hey just read news that gregor blanco was put n waivers, any chance the braves pick him up?
I don’t think so.
Blanco is better than Melky and Francouer
Graham@40 Thanks for the update on Bullock. His bio would suggest he is a pretty big dude, 6’6′ and 225 pounds. He will add depth to our RHP stock.
Blanco? He didn’t last long in KC! I am sure he will pick up a gig fairly quickly even if it is a minor league deal. I actually liked his speed last year comin off the bench.
It looks like the Braves will have a pretty tough schedule to open the season but the plus side is almost all of our posn players are healthy where as the Phillies have Utley out and Polanco in doubt.
Paul@32, Freeman will hit but he will not be counted on to be ‘The Man’ this season. I think all parties will be happy with a .270BA with 15 to 20 Hrs if he played a full season. While you can’t count on Chipper to play 150+ games he will still be very good for 120 to 130 games which is pretty much what you could expect from a 39 veteran.
I think Kimbrel has to be a big x factor as well. I know that he did find his stuff at the end of last season, but he’s got to do that for an entire year now. If he does then this bullpen could be really lights out.
Freeman too. If he just hits singles all day long with a few HRs then I think we can all be happy.