Kelly Johnson’s 2009
June 21, 2009 at 7:12 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Player Analysis, Slow Starts, Statistical Analysis
Kelly Johnson has produced a rather underwhelming 2009. He is currently hitting .224/.290/.374, all career lows. He is constantly accused of being a “streaky” hitter, one that will get hot for a few weeks and post MVP type numbers then fall into a slump for a few weeks where the production is simply not present. This season, we’re seeing more of the latter. This is especially disappointing considering the Braves are really counting on Kelly to produce. And unlike another member of the Braves that isn’t producing, Kelly hasn’t shown much reason to believe that he is incapable of producing. In fact, he showed quite the opposite in September of 2008 when he went on a tear hitting .398/.429/.643 with 9 doubles, 3 triples, and 3 homers. He scored 19 runs, drove in 19 runs, and posted an OPS+ of 167. A monster month. But that has hardly carried over.
Prior to that month he hit .263/.332/.403 on the season. Which isn’t terrible, but not the kind of production the Braves were seeking. Especially since he doesn’t play lights-out defense. A note about his defense, though. He hasn’t been a below average defender by any metric this season. According to +/- he’s 3 plays above average having saved 2 runs in the field, ranking him 11th among 2B. According to UZR he’s also an above average defender. Yes, he makes some gross errors at times, but he’s an above-average defender, so we live with it, especially when he’s hitting.
But he isn’t hitting. In fact, he’s hitting below replacement level. His VORP is currently -3.1. The only position players that have posted a more offensive VORP for the Braves are rookie Jordan Schafer, rookie utility player Diory Hernandez, journeyman pinch-hitting specialist Greg Norton, and (by a fairly wide margin clear of everyone else) Jeff Francoeur. Runs Created tells the same story. And you don’t even need statistics to explain the fact Kelly Johnson is sucking. This level of suckage is fairly un-heard of, but you do need statistics to explain the fact that he’s not actually bad, just unlucky.
Well, first of all, he’s still making solid contact with the ball, which is most important. His Line Drive % is still 16, right in line with his career average of 17. Sometimes you hit the ball hard but it’s right at someone. His strikeouts are actually down this year, so he’s putting the ball in play more frequently than he has in the past. His walks, however, are also down. For this I blame Terry Pendleton who attempted to change his approach so that, and I quote, “he’ll quit looking at so many called 3rd strikes”. What this means is Kelly has become more aggressive in general and especially with 2-strikes and this has caused his BB% to decline. And people wonder why other people want Terry Pendleton fired.
What is shocking about Kelly’s 2009 is his BABIP. It’s low. Off the charts low. From 2005-2008, his BABIP was .326. This season? .247. Once a ball is put in play a hitter has no control over where it goes. Sometimes you hit a ball hard but it’s right at someone. That sucks. You have to go sit down. Kelly has done this a lot lately. And if history tells us anything, it is that things regress towards the mean. And the mean isn’t at .247.
I am here to tell you that Kelly Johnson will get better. The balls he puts in play will fall for hits more often. They will. He’s a talented player, a former first round draft pick and has a fairly impressive track record at the MLB level. He’ll quit getting so un-lucky, his BABIP will regress towards the mean, and his other stats: batting average, OBP, SlG %, will rise accordingly. It will happen.
It’s hard to be patient, especially with a player who irritates as much as KJ does with his costly errors (a game against the Phillies comes to mind). But if you are patient, good things will come. And trading him now while his value is low and he’s due to preform better? Well that’s a silly idea. Unless the club trading for him is willing to grossly overpay. The best thing to do is just ride this out. Because he’s not a bad player, just getting terribly unlucky.
Francoeur, on the other hand…
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This cleary wasn’t written after the BoSox game. We was productive. He got a leadoff double and made a productive out by getting the runner over.
BoSox game has nothing to do with it. He played well in that game. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come. The double was off of Hideki Okajima, a LHP. Which continues to prove the point that he hits LHP better than RHP and shouldn’t be benched against LHP.
In his career, Kelly has hit .255/.343/.428 against RHP and .295/.357/.438 against LHP. This season he’s hitting .190/.266/.294 against RHP and .303/.347/.561 against LHP. Both of those don’t include today’s AB’s (1/1 with a 2B against LHP, 0-1 against a RHP).
New Poll, by the way.
I’m not convinced about Kelly’s defensive numbers. In watching the braves Kelly makes very amatuer plays on defense and is very inconsistent. He also takes bad angles on plays going to his left. Both he and Francouer are killing this team. However I think you will be able to upgrade 2nd base with lesser prospect that the cost would be to attain a bat for the outfield at the deadline.
Great Article
Why do you think it’d cost less to obtain an upgrade at a premium defensive position as opposed to RF?
Very true but we can’t afford to platoon Kelly and Prado.
Platooning Kelly and Prado doesn’t accomplish much since they both hit LHP better than RHP. I like Prado’s role of super-utility player/personal back-up for Chipper.
Funny story, during our fantasy baseball draft this season I laughed at my girlfriend when she drafted Shin-Soo Choo because of “his funny name”. I considered it a mistake by a rookie fantasy player, but I was most definitely wrong. In fact, the more I look at it, the more I am leaning to thinking that I would be most excited by a trade for Choo to take over as the Braves’ RF while we send Jeff down to the minors for a rest-of-’09 stay. Who else could we buy low and get as good of a return back with?
I don’t see Choo as a buy-low candidate, really. He’s pretty much on pace for his career numbers. Plus he’s a young, under control player. As far as buy low candidates, Coco Crisp certainly comes to mind. Jeremy Hermida as well.
Coco Crisp and Hermida? Yech. I’d rather keep French there and not give away any more talent. It’s almost like were trying to trade just for the sake of trading if we do that. The statistical analysis of Johnson doesn’t get to the point. He isn’t a 2nd baseman and likely never will be. He has no range, no natural pivot to first and many other mediocre skills. A stat analysis just isn’t speaking to the point.
I didn’t suggest we trade for them, just pointed out they’re buy-low candidates. I wouldn’t trade for them either, they’re not what we need. What do you mean he isn’t a 2B? I mean, he’s a natural SS, but natural SS never have trouble playing 2B. Kelly has plenty of range to his right, actually well above-average. He’s deficient when he goes to his left. Thank god we’ve got one of the best defensive 1B in the game. He doesn’t turn the double play very well, I’ll give you that. But he’s good enough in the field. About average. Which is certainly good enough considering his best tools are his bat and legs. I didn’t preform any analysis on his defense, just pointed out that he’s been above average in the field this season. Which he has been according to UZR and +/-. You’re stating more of an opinion than anything.
Yes. I am stating my opinion based on 39 years of playing, coaching and watching baseball. The reason Kelly was moved first to the OF and then to 2B is that were trying to find a place to hide him and keep his bat. Like all statistical evaluations, this one falls short. If statistical models were accurate in sports the BCS would be all the rage and Mike Piazza would never have been signed. The problem is that he isn’t turning out to be a great hitter. His defense would be acceptable if he were hitting, but he isn’t. To try to defend his skills by pointing to September 2008 is just a joke. You have to be able to hit more than one month out of a 4 year career to justify a spot on a major league team. His offensive weaknesses are being expoited by virtually every team in the league. And without an adequate pitching coach, he isn’t reversing that fortune. He has maintained his position with the Braves because he is another ” BC favorite”. Like Jeff “Gasoline” Bennett he can do no wrong in Bobby’s eyes. While this was an admirable trait in Bobby when he had a better roster, it now becomes a glaring liability.
The reason he was moved to OF was because there was a need. But yes, you’re sort of right. 2B isn’t his position. He played a lot of SS and a little 3B in the minor league. 2B is the most logical position to put him at and there’s a need. Apparently you started watching the Braves in 2008, because in 2007 he hit .267/.375/.457 with 16 HR, 10 3B, and 26 2B. And you obviously didn’t read the article because my point was that he’s getting unlucky. He’s hitting a ton of line drives, they’re just not falling for hits. I assume you mean an adequate hitting coach. And I agree, Terry Pendleton is solely responsible for his walk rate falling off the map. If statistical analysis isn’t your thing, that’s fine. I’m not trying to “convert” any of the meat-head “we’re too good for stats” crowd. But if so, this site isn’t for you, so don’t come back. At least don’t comment. And just a heads up, I’m going to delete any more of your comments that I deem bad for my business and ban you thereafter.
Great 1st amendment speech there.
It’s my glove and I’m taking it home with me.
Looks like you are the one harming your illustious site. Things like name calling really have no place” Meat Head”. I have always limited my comments to the baseball issues.
This is not a democracy and there is no constitution or first amendment. Your input and criticism as to how to run my site is not welcome. Feel free to to respectfully discuss baseball topics, but using language like “To try to defend his skills by pointing to September 2008 is just a joke” won’t be tolerated. Especially since that’s not what I did. But for the record I didn’t explicitly call you a meat head, I just said converting that group isn’t something I’m interested in doing. Weather you want to include yourself in that group is up to you. But you made that conclusion. I didn’t. The point is I decide what flies here. And it isn’t up to you. Take it for what it is. Like it or not, that’s how I operate this site. And I’m not interested in your or anyone’s opinions as to how to operate it. And with that I’ll close the comments for this thread.