Phillies 3, Braves 0
April 10, 2011 at 4:26 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
“The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on.” — Bill James
Martin Prado: .279/.289/.442
A player whose offensive value generally comes from his batting average is inherently going to have ups and downs. Hitting for average involves not only the batter and the opposing pitcher, but also the opposition’s defense. Walks and homers are strictly batter-pitcher-park affairs, and thus subject to one less type of variance than balls in play.
That Martin Prado has only been on base 13 times in 10 games isn’t much of a concern at this point, but it’s a reasonable explanation for why this team, a team that was supposed to sport one of the best offenses in the league, has scored 3.2 runs per game. This won’t be the last time Prado has a 10-game stretch in which he reaches base fewer than 30 percent of the time, nor will it be the last time the Braves struggle to score runs. Eventually Prado will get on a hot streak and reach base something like 45 percent of the time, and the Braves will score in bunches. This up and down type of offensive output is what the team signed up for when they placed a player who walks in fewer than seven percent of his plate appearances in the leadoff spot. Walk rate stabilizes a lot faster than hits/balls in play. We’re going to love it when the hits are falling and hate it when they aren’t, but at the end of the year we’ll probably look back with no ill will towards Martin Prado or his placement in the line-up. So hold steady for now, because the hits will come. Not that Prado couldn’t stand to walk more.
…………
Derek Lowe deserved better. Having forgotten how to win, Lowe was assigned a loss by record-keepers based on an arbitrary and asinine set of rules. He pitched 7 innings with a 2/0 K/BB ratio and an 11/8 GO/FO ratio. He allowed 7 hits, 6 singles and 1 homer to Shane Victorino, who I’m extremely glad to not have to see play baseball again for another month. The Phillies got their first run in the 4th when Victorino singled to lead off the inning, Placido Crapolonco singled to make it first and third, and Jimmy Rollins hit into a run-scoring double-play. Philadelphia’s third run came in the 9th inning against Craig Kimbrel when Jimmy Rollins hit a liner to right that rolled all the way to the wall. Heyward bobbled it, allowing Rollins to take 3rd with nobody out, then Ryan Howard hit into a run-scoring groundout.
The Braves had five hits and one walk versus the Phillies’ eight hits and one walk. To the surprise of many Nate McLouth was the only Brave to reach base twice, doubling in the second and walking in the sixth. His double was also Atlanta’s only extra-base hit. He made up for it by grounding into an inning-ending double play after Martin Prado singled with one out in the 8th. One baserunner was a rally in this one. Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Dan Uggla combined to go 0-for-12. Uggla struck out against Jose Contreras in the 9th to end the game, meaning for the fourth time this year Nate McLouth came to bat one more time than Jason Heyward.
Jonny Venters retired the side in order on 6 pitches (all groundouts) in the 8th inning. He’s now faced 19 batters and thrown 51 pitches.
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I’m disappointed to Lowe take the loss, he has been nothing short of phenomenal this spring. I’m all for being aggressive at the plate, but this has been back to back days where the Braves have the bases loaded and guys swing at the very first pitch. I still don’t know a whole lot about Larry Parrish, but I’m interested in how he addresses this. Also, I would shake up the lineup and put Prado back at in the 2 hole, just until he gets more comfortable.
What’s funny is that, based on the super small 10 game sample size, McCann is the one that should be in the #1 hole right now :-)
McCann, Prado, Jones, Heyward, Uggla, McLouth, Gonzo, Freeman
As much run support as Derek Lowe got at times last year while he was pitching poorly (i.e., the first 5 months of the season), I think this is baseball’s own karmic balance rearing its ugly head. A pitcher with a 1.45 ERA should not have a losing record for any reason. I’m sure there’s an “offense adjusted to league average W-L pitching record” metric that I dont know about for that…
I just need fredi to start using his brain and move Jason up in the lineup. Why in the hell would you put Nate in the two hole when all he did last year was prove that he doesn’t belong on a MLB roster. Until he proves he can he need to bat lower in the lineup. This decision totally blows me!!!!
I’ve got something for in-game chat. Just click on “Game Chat” on the top bar. Let me know what you think. I want to try this for a bit, if we don’t like it we’ll move to something else.
Is the Bill James quote referring to the leadoff man in the order or the leadoff man each inning? Because after Martin’s first appearance he may not bat first in an inning for the rest of the game.
I’m really not sure to be honest. Regardless, in the NL the leadoff hitter bats leadoff in innings 2-9 more frequently than any of the other 8 hitters.
Also I think it should be noted that the Braves’ and Phillies’ BABIP are pretty much at opposite ends of the spectrum now with the Braves close to the bottom (.262) and the Phillies leading the league at a cool .400
The excuse for Dan Uggla that “he always gets off to a “slow start” is just pure BS. If so, then hit him 8th or 9th until he starts rakin’, then move him up to a run producing spot in the lineup. Right now he is nothing but a rally killer.
Until he gets tired of “slow starts” and does something about it in Spring Training, this crap will continue. Texeira was the worst slow starter in baseball until he decided he was sick of it and did something about it this year. Now he has double digit RBIs already.
I was trying to be quiet about Nate in the 2 hole, but now I’m gonna have to join in with everyone else. He’s hitting .229 with less than a .300 OBP. Anybody here think he is going to improve? Especially to the Pittsburgh numbers like Wren and Fredi were hoping for? I don’t. Get busy and find us a CF Frankie. In the meantime, put Jason hitting 2nd, please.
I think Braves fans hate on McLouth a bit more than he deserves. Either because of last years epic failure, him batting second instead of Heyward, or both (most likely). But he made his plays in the outfield and looked good at the plate today.
I also thought Alex Gonzalez looked great at the plate, and worked alot of pitches.
If anything Chipper and Freddie had the worst AB’s of the game both of the grounding out on the first pitch they saw with runners in scoring position.
Do you think Nate is really that bad or do you just really want Heyward second? And what do you think about Gonzalez getting into long counts today?
Why is JC Boscan on the MLB club? Does Fredi Just like having 3 catchers? Are we seasoning boscan so we can trade Ross?
So they can use Ross or McCann on his off day as a pinch-hitter without having to worry about putting Brooks Conrad behind the plate if something happened to the starting catcher.
Answer to #10 – Nate is really that bad. Don’t you remember him hitting .190 last year? That’s pretty bad.
Do you think Nate is really that bad or do you just really want Heyward second?
My opposition to Nate batting second has everything to do with Jason Heyward batting sixth and nothing to do with Nate McLouth.
is it just me or do recent braves always have trouble hitting soft throwing lefties?
buuut, Fredi’s defense could be, but Nate has an eight game hitting streak, why change things?? he is getting on base..
The point brought up about the leadoff man is a solid one. Most call for McLouth’s demotion but his skill set, meaning his patience and not his speed, is more fit for top of the lineup duties than Prado. I know it is not the popular opinion to make negative comments about Prado, but when they both are on their OBPs are similar and Nate’s walk rate is much more impressive.
I’m pretty sure the “slow starter” stuff is mostly random variation, but I could be wrong. I don’t think Mark Teixeira worked harder this spring or anything.
Its not just you….but im pretty sure the last time hamels was put into the category of soft throwing lefty, he was about 2 or 3.
I buy the slow starter stuff. Teixeira said he did start taking cuts earlier this year and tried things differently, but if you noticed his numbers are dropping again. Some guys just get a better feel for the plate as the season goes on.
These types of occurences along with streakiness aren’t as much variation as other things in baseball. This is where I think the human element comes in more than most other saber-slanted bloggers/baseball fans.
I know many people here think a great deal of Freddie Freeman. But the kid is Mark Grace light….AT BEST. Jam job singles and 30 hoppers through holes in the defense are his only contribution to the club at this point. I know he is a rookie. I know he is big and strong and a good defender. I know he is a good kid. But I, for one, don’t give a damn. He isn’t a Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzales, etc…He’ll, he isn’t even in the second tier of guys like Kevin Youkilis (I know he plays 3B now). He’s passive at the plate. Takes strike one right down the pipe. Takes a fastball for strike two on the outer third. Works the count a little deeper usually (This is his only good trait), then pops out, grounds out, or K’s…none with any authority. Then, if he does get aggressive, I guess he makes his mind up before the AB and goes up and swings at a perfect fastball on the outside edge and pulls the fucker into the defense to end the ending. His good AB’s come when it doesn’t make a damn…bad AB’s are when we need him. Flame away Pete, Kevin, and you Freeman lovers….but the kid is a singles hitting bench piece at best. And its a bad thing that he is the Braves 1st sacker of the future.
He is 21 and now has less than 60 plate appearances at the Major League level and has only been lifting weights for three years. You are far too quick to judge.
And Youkilis is just as good — if not better — than all of the names you mentioned.
Its idiotic for anyone to get personal on these boards…but if you say Kevin Youkilis is as good as Pujols or Howard…I just don’t know what to say.
As for being quick to judge. Time will tell if I am too quick and I really hope I’m wrong. I’m a HUGE Braves fan and want to be wrong more than anything in the world. But my early prediction after seeing every one of his at bats is that Freddie Freeman is either A) Not close to MLB ready. B) Is not MLB caliber as a starting first baseman.
You didn’t say Pujols. Youkilis has had a higher fWAR than Howard for four consecutive seasons.
19) lol
i guess a 92 mph fastball is a normal thrower, not a softy.
Ryan Howard wRC+: 2008: 120, 2009: 140, 2010: 125
Kevin Youkilis wRC+: 2008: 144, 2009: 148, 2010: 160
Not to mention the gap in defensive value or competition.
The problem with this offense is our clean-up hitter is yet to record an extra-base hit, our $62 million right-handed power bat is sporting a .516 OPS, the first two hitters in the line-up have reached base less than 29 percent of the time, Chipper Jones has walked twice in 10 games, our best hitter bats sixth, Alex Gonzalez is Alex Gonzalez, and Freddie Freeman hasn’t hit the ground running like you would have liked him to. It’s fine to be frustrated with the team’s offense so far, they haven’t been good. But taking that frustration out exclusively on Freddie Freeman when five other line-up regulars aren’t doing their job, one of them sucks to begin with, and the only one whose hitting is being criminally misused reflects pretty poorly on you. Freddie Freeman has looked better at the plate and produced better results thus far than Albert Pujols has. Give him and the rest of the regulars some time.
92 MPH is above major-league average overall and well above-average for a lefty, especially a lefty starter.
27) I agree. I spoke before knowing what he topped out at. Also, I relied on my memory of him using his change and curve a lot.
Nate McLouth and Freddie Freeman were major question marks coming into the season. Texas is now looking for a CF and may be in a better position to get a good one.
We just aren’t situationally hitting. It will come around soon.
FWIW, I was at Coolray Stadium today. Joe Mather looked great at the plate. He’s healthy, too.
@23- It seems that you’ve accidentally grouped Ryan Howard with Albert Pujols. Ryan Howard is good at hitting a lot of home runs and earning a lot of money. Albert Pujols is great at everything. EVERYTHING. Youkilis is a lot closer to that than Ryan Howard.
And no, I don’t think Freddie Freeman is as good as any of those players. If Albert Pujols is the standard, then all but about ten hitters in history suck at playing baseball. For me, that’s a LITTLE too high of a standard for a rookie.
Maybe that’s just me.
Uggla struck out swinging on pretty much the same pitch three times. That and his lack of energy killed me. Also, the ump’s strike zone ended WAY above the knees. Lowe got robbed on a bunch of two strike counts.
I think comparing freeman to any of those 1B at this point in his career is crazy. I think all anyone expected out of Freeman this season was .260 BA; 10-15 HR; 20-30 2B; and 60-70RBI; He will probably come up short (or at the short end of all of those) but I still think he is better lumped into a category (which i hate lumping any pitcher/everyday player to anyone) as Gaby Sanchez or Ike Davis (a little less productive than both – right now)
I mean did we really expect freeman to put up stellar rookie numbers?
and #26), CAC – right freakin on – those are our problems. I just started reading this blog this year (braves fan since I was 7 [1992]), and you are right on with everything.
I personally think Freeman will hit closer to 280 than 260 actually
If anyone actually thought that Freeman was actually going to be anywhere close to the 1st or 2nd tier first basemen in the league…in his first 10 games, no less…I’ll need to know what you’ve been smoking. He came to be the every day first baseman and everyone knew there will be growing pains.
At this point, if you’re still not on the “wait and see” ship, then you might as well jump and stop watching.
For all that McLouth has done so far, I think that it all deserves to hit 6th in the order. Especially now when Alex Gonzalez actually looks like he can see a pitch. Some of those hits that Sea Bass has gotten have been smoked. McLouth would have been a good bet to go home from first on a lot of those, too.
On another note, has Uggla looked as good as some of Jim Powell and Don Sutton have been making him sound? They seem quite impressed with quite a few of the hits that he’s gotten to and taken away. Could it be that an average to above average fielder makes some of his “hard work” plays look routine?
Personally, as I stated on my twitter a few days ago, I have been pleasantly surprised with Uggla’s defense so far. He is has better hands and is faster than I originally imagined. There was a ball today that increased lateral movement would have allowed him to get to, and that the fleeter-footed middle infielders would have gotten to, but we can all live with him not making the amazing plays.
This is all on just the eye test, and there have been good portions of games that I have missed, but I am judging on what I have seen in ST and in real games. He is better than I originally thought.
14 CAC: I am definitely glad and not entirely surprised. I think McLouth is going to become the player he used to be and I think he gets a lot of heat from Braves fans.
But I also think Heyward should hit second, I am just being a bit more patient than most Braves fans out there.
Uggla’s defense has definitely impressed me so far as well.
Freeman has looked good at 1st too– I loved that jumping catch he made the other day. His bat will come eventually, give him a chance. Not everyone can be Heyward.
35 Ben: I know they have all kinds of defensive metrics and stats, but I think that just watching a player consistently is the best way to get a read on someone’s defense. Uggla has looked great so far.
Absolutely, but a big problem with the eye test is the frequency in which a player is watched. Not seeing every attempt, or close to every attempt, can really skew one’s perception.
Also, it is extremely difficult to judge reaction time compared to peers, especially if you are couch scouting.
@38: I think that just using your perception, or a scout’s, might skew the results depending on the favor that you have for the player. I have heard quite a few people say that they think someone has played well over the course of a season, but then when they look at the defensive metrics, they find out that the player was only just average or below-average.
39 & 40: I definitely agree that you need to watch a lot of a player to determine his defensive abilities by eye. If you see Ryan Howard make a diving play in a game you could hardly say that he is a great fielder.
Some of the metrics have issues with things such as stadium specific issues, such as the Monster in Boston specifically.
I also believe there aren’t sufficient ways to account for the situations when teams use dramatic shifts.
For the most part they are useful though.
Yeah just going by your eyes you would think Rick Ankiel is a fantastic defender when pretty much all metrics agree that he’s average at best iirc
Jon @ 34. I didn’t expect him to be in either of those categories this year, but I’m saying I don’t see a chance in hell that he CAN get there. I think his ceiling is Mark Grace or Wally Joyner…in their absolute prime. Personally, I don’t think he comes close to that.
I 10000% agree with you on McLouth. Getting him in the 6 hole would be very valuable for this team. At some point, Uggla and McCann will find the power stroke and that makes the speed/stolen base prowess obsolete. It would be nice to have a guy hitting behind Uggla that can start another rally. The only problem with that is that Uggla will get pitched around….ALOT.
@44: Someone will get pitched around no matter what. Right now, it happens to be that our best offensive player is the one who has that fortune due to Fredi’s stubborn ineptitude to understand OBP.
Jake,
Mark Grace was a very, very good player. 9 seasons of at least +3 rWAR, 5 seasons of at least +4 rWAR. Joyner wasn’t nearly as good, still an average or better first baseman for 11 of his 16 seasons.
If Freeman can learn to walk as much as Mark Grace did they’ll pretty much be identical players. They’re both good hitters and good defenders with more gap power than HR power. The only thing separating Mark Grace’s career with the expectation of Freeman’s is about 30 walks a year. Considering the fact that Freeman is only 21 years old and made a lot of progress in that regard last year, I think there’s a decent chance he becomes Mark Grace. And if you’re not happy with that, or even something reasonably close, well that’s a you problem and not a Freddie Freeman problem.
I’d be stoked with Mark Grace…Ecstatic…but we both know that players rarely meet their FULL potential. If Freeman stays healthy, works hard, gets the lucky breaks of having good hitters around him, etc….He CAN be as good as Mark Grace…Thats the BEST he can do.
Mark Grace had a confidence about him the day he stepped on the field. He was an arrogant but knowledgeable player. When I see Freddie Freeman come to the plate and act like he hasn’t just seen the Chuppacabra, then I’ll think more of him.
Freddie Freeman needs to learn and put into place Gracie’s slumpbuster theory.
Slumpbuster theory ala Mark Grace = Go into the local bar and have several adult beverages. Then pick out the ugliest, fattest woman in the bar and hit on her. iF she is amenable, then go to her place and nail her all night long or until you pass out, whichever comes first. Next day; 4 for 4 with a homer. Guaranteed according to Grace.
Prado, Heyward, Chipper, McCann, Uggla, McClouth, Freeman, Gonzo, Pitcher is a better lineup.
It worked fine last year. Heyward draws walks and protects Prado. Chipper protects Heyward and so forth. I don’t like Freeman ahead of the pitcher because he will never see good pitches to hit. Gonzo is a veteran and can handle that.
Chipper is no 3 hole hitter anymore. Putting Heyward or McCann there and having Chipper hit 2nd or 6th is more valuable to the team. He’s a contact hitter with the ability to hit .300 but will not have the power numbers to support hitting 3rd. Plus he walks.
Matt, I can’t agree there.
Gonzo will take a pitch or two..but he isn’t a bad ball hitter and he isn’t a guy who will take a walk. Yes, he will take a pitch or two, but thats it. He fouls off pitches and works counts and I like him better in the 8 hole. McLouth is the most patient guy we can put there out of Freeman, McLouth, and Gonzo…and McLouth is perfect for the 8 hole. Work walks with 1 or 2 outs. His speed is utilized when he leads off an inning as he can steal a base on a team and be sacrificed to third. His speed makes him easier to get over. McLouth needs to be in the 8 hole. Not because he is a piece of crap…but because he can help us there.