Phillies 3, Braves 0
April 10, 2011 at 4:26 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
“The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on.” — Bill James
Martin Prado: .279/.289/.442
A player whose offensive value generally comes from his batting average is inherently going to have ups and downs. Hitting for average involves not only the batter and the opposing pitcher, but also the opposition’s defense. Walks and homers are strictly batter-pitcher-park affairs, and thus subject to one less type of variance than balls in play.
That Martin Prado has only been on base 13 times in 10 games isn’t much of a concern at this point, but it’s a reasonable explanation for why this team, a team that was supposed to sport one of the best offenses in the league, has scored 3.2 runs per game. This won’t be the last time Prado has a 10-game stretch in which he reaches base fewer than 30 percent of the time, nor will it be the last time the Braves struggle to score runs. Eventually Prado will get on a hot streak and reach base something like 45 percent of the time, and the Braves will score in bunches. This up and down type of offensive output is what the team signed up for when they placed a player who walks in fewer than seven percent of his plate appearances in the leadoff spot. Walk rate stabilizes a lot faster than hits/balls in play. We’re going to love it when the hits are falling and hate it when they aren’t, but at the end of the year we’ll probably look back with no ill will towards Martin Prado or his placement in the line-up. So hold steady for now, because the hits will come. Not that Prado couldn’t stand to walk more.
…………
Derek Lowe deserved better. Having forgotten how to win, Lowe was assigned a loss by record-keepers based on an arbitrary and asinine set of rules. He pitched 7 innings with a 2/0 K/BB ratio and an 11/8 GO/FO ratio. He allowed 7 hits, 6 singles and 1 homer to Shane Victorino, who I’m extremely glad to not have to see play baseball again for another month. The Phillies got their first run in the 4th when Victorino singled to lead off the inning, Placido Crapolonco singled to make it first and third, and Jimmy Rollins hit into a run-scoring double-play. Philadelphia’s third run came in the 9th inning against Craig Kimbrel when Jimmy Rollins hit a liner to right that rolled all the way to the wall. Heyward bobbled it, allowing Rollins to take 3rd with nobody out, then Ryan Howard hit into a run-scoring groundout.
The Braves had five hits and one walk versus the Phillies’ eight hits and one walk. To the surprise of many Nate McLouth was the only Brave to reach base twice, doubling in the second and walking in the sixth. His double was also Atlanta’s only extra-base hit. He made up for it by grounding into an inning-ending double play after Martin Prado singled with one out in the 8th. One baserunner was a rally in this one. Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Dan Uggla combined to go 0-for-12. Uggla struck out against Jose Contreras in the 9th to end the game, meaning for the fourth time this year Nate McLouth came to bat one more time than Jason Heyward.
Jonny Venters retired the side in order on 6 pitches (all groundouts) in the 8th inning. He’s now faced 19 batters and thrown 51 pitches.
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PROTECTION DOES NOT EXIST
Im beginning to agree that protection is null in the middle of an order, but what do you call the situation a #8 hitter experiences? They get nothing to hit. And while that may not be protection, pitching around someone does happen when garbage hits behind them, does it not?
even the number 7 hitter has no “protection” behind him and will get pitched around if they warrant it. (heyward hitting 7th would warrant a lot of walks) so maybe it isnt protection but there is something to putting quality bats behind someone, to give them opportunities to put good swings on good pitches – and not having to change their approach at the plate. Protection might be a bad term but now its just semantics. Your take CAC?
I dont mean to sound so definitive in saying a #8 hitter gets NOTHING to hit. obviously with no one on base, they will get the same pitches they would if they were hitting 3rd (kinda). But with a runner on first and 2 outs the number 8 hitter will get pitched around, possibly intentionally walked (espicially if the pitcher gets behind) So what is that phenomenon called?
hamels did not look anything like the pitcher he was in his first start. he made perfect pitches against us during the whole game and his fastball was actually hitting 94-95. i don’t consider that to be soft tossing.
The #8 hitter does get an OBP boost from hitting in front of the pitcher in the NL. Then again, that’s fine. Clear the pitcher for the next inning!
It’s also why you don’t want a total hacker hitting 8th. Alex Gonzalez, for example, should hit nowhere other than 7th in a NL line-up.