Braves 5, Marlins 0
April 12, 2011 at 10:06 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Tommy Hanson is back. Hanson needed only 98 pitches to fire 7 shutout frames, allowing 4 hits and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts. Even more impressive was his 13/3 GO/FO ratio. Hanson did a great job of locating his fastball down in the zone and effectively used his slider to keep the hitters off balance. Perhaps the most encouraging sign was the return of his velocity, he sat 91-94 MPH touching 95 on occasion.
Atlanta got all five of their runs off of Chris Volstad, Florida’s starter. In the bottom of the third Atlanta put together a two out rally to bring in two. Prado singled, McLouth hit a double to right-center to score him, and Chipper singled McLouth home. Heyward hit a monster homer to dead center in the fourth to make it 3-0. In the fifth Prado doubled to lead off the inning. Nate McLouth sacrificed himself on a bunt, moving Prado to 3rd, then Chipper hit a liner to left-center that Logan Morrison ran down for the inning’s second out, scoring Prado to make it 4-0. Brian McCann followed that with a homer into the Braves’ bullpen, which constituted the end of the evening’s scoring.
Eric O’Flaherty ran into some trouble in the 8th inning, allowing a hit and a walk before he was pulled in favor of Peter Moylan, who got Omar Infante and Hanley Ramirez on 7 pitches. Scott Linebrink pitched a scoreless 9th, allowing a walk and striking out two.
I calculate that the bunt was McLouth’s idea. It looked like he was trying to bunt for a base hit rather than give himself up.
The Marlins had five hits and four walks. Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison each doubled, the only extra-base hits the Marlins got as opposed to Atlanta’s three doubles and two homers. Chipper Jones drew his third walk of the season in the first inning, and as previously mentioned Brian McCann recorded his first extra-base hit of the season. Dan Uggla also doubled on a soft liner to right that he had to hustle to get two bases on. Pretty much everything that hadn’t been going well in the season’s first ten games went right tonight, meaning the Braves won, as they should more frequently than they lose going forward.
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Braves win, Phillies lose and Rich and Tommy read funny emails all night. Perfect start to the week.
Freddie Freeman also hit really well today it looked like. The wind knocked down a HR and hit the ball well in his other ABs.
His strike out down at his ankles was a little ridiculous, regardless of it being called on both teams tonight. That umpire’s strike zone could’ve been a little less generous to the pitchers but that’s neither here nor there in the scheme of things.
And the Braves played excellent defense tonight (Gonzalez especially). These first couple of weeks may lead me to believe that Uggla is actually an average defensive 2nd baseman.
Why is everyone making a big deal about Heyward hitting in the 6 hole? Prado’s doing a great job at leadoff. J-Hey doesn’t belong in the 2 hole b/c of his power potential, and the 3 hole is Chipper’s as long as he’s healthy, easily. Then you have J-Hey, McCann and Uggla who all can make the case to hit cleanup or 5th, and J-Hey is low man on the totem pole, still has more to prove than the other two.
I say that this year, J-Hey will move up to 5th, maybe even cleanup on days that McCann is off and Ross is in the game. But it’s not a big deal. It’s early in the season and it will all work itself out later.
Braves pitchers on pace for 29 shutouts this season.
@ ryan – he’s looked really good to me, and he’s made some plays that i would never expect to see a “below average” 2nd baseman to make.
it’s just the marlins, but tonight was definitely encouraging for braves fans.
Great win tonight. No negatives.
Marteeen with another multi-hit game.
I like Nate’s hitting approach tonight; also a good catch
Chipper getting on and driving in runs.
Mac finally got his first XBH, and with authority.
Freeman hit some balls hard. Wind took that HR away.
Defense is looking fantastic. Hope it keeps up.
Tommy pitched great. Linebrink didnt give up a run. Good to see.
i know it was the marlins, but why were there only 13k there tonight. even saturday’s home game wasn’t sold out
this is sad
I wouldn’t say no negatives – just saw on baseball tonight that the crowd was the lowest in Turner Field history- just a little over 13,000. Anything to account for that in the first homestand of the year? Hope this isn’t an indication of what’s to come at the Ted this season. I hate being a fan in another state and not being able to get to weeknight games.
Yeah, the attendance was startlingly pathetic. I’m one to criticize–I never see the Bravos at home, but at least I have the excuse of going to school in the Northeast. Why can’t the hometown fans muster even 20,000 for the fourth home game of the season?
The weather isn’t awesome and it’s a school night. I think the Braves generally do better when school isn’t in session.
McLovin,
The #2 hitter should be one of your best three hitters over all–in many cases your best–and power is certainly not wasted there.
I should just post this at the top of every thread and say “read before you opine about line-up construction”.
J-Hey is tailor-made for the 3rd spot, and when Chipper retires, it’s his. My point is that he’s young, the Braves are deep and I disagree that you want a power guy in the 2 hole, you want your power guys behind more than 1 guy w/ high OBP. It will sort itself out in the meantime.
I would think you would welcome any sort of discussion about Braves on your blog, but since you obviously would rather me stay on point, and want us blog readers to stay in line, I think tonight was a great night for Hanson, he pitched very well and hope he can continue on that track. Solid defense too by Gonzo and others. The team seems to be gelling with new full-time members and I’m looking forward to it getting better as the season goes on.
It’s hard for “Braves Country” to make it out during the week plus school’s still in session (and probably a little bit of ‘we suck’ after the Brewers and Phillies) we only had 30k something on Sunday did we not? When I took the tour they said average attendance jumps 10k after school ends.
Well, I for one plan on catching an earlier flight to Atlanta on Sunday so I can make it to Turner Field to catch the afternoon game. It’s called dedication, the newest fragrance to hit a KMart near you.
@ Drew. /9
Thats true. I actually remarked on that in the game chat in the top of the 1st inning. I was completely shocked that the seats were that empty. It made me mad… but I suppose it shouldnt, since there are probably a lot of people that arent there for the same reason I’m not… broke college students nearing finals. :/
An April Monday night game against the Marlins, who have no fans traveling (because they have no fans), sounds like a recipe for the worst crowd in Ted history.
Another possible reason — most schools were on spring break last week, meaning today was their 2nd day back. Parents were probably more reluctant to bring kids out having just gotten back from their vacations.
Great job Tommy, glad to see him back on the horse. It’s early and a small sample size, but the defense looks pretty damn good. I think the Braves can be in the middle of the pack this year in that category.
With respect to tonight’s attendance, one has to think that 10.6% unemployment in metro ATL also contributes to the low attendance.
McLovin,
It’s been hashed and rehashed over and over again in past posts. I suggest you read up on them if you want to discuss it. At this point, you’re not likely to get a response if you don’t come up with something new to add to the topic.
Mclovin, you read the required reading and still think McLouth should hit 2nd instead of Heyward? I think the Braves might have a front office job for you.
Whoops…meant to say an April *Tuesday night game in my previous post.
After watching Uggla for 11 consecutive games now, he kind of grows on you. Has played above average defense, hauls ass out of the batter’s box on every ball he hits, even routine grounders. That is why he was able to get a double on that little blooper tonight. I can see why Fredi is a big fan of his.
I have been on here criticizing his lack of hitting. I guess it will improve since he’s had 5 years of 30 homers or more. I have just been POed at the entire team for their lack of hitting and chose him to pick on since he’s getting paid 12 million a year. But every other facet of his game I can appreciate. Especially his hustle. A lot of those millionaires don’t hustle [see Manny Ramirez] and that makes me angry.
Atlanta’s “Veteran Bullpen Presence”:
Sherrill (LHP) + Linebrink (RHP): 6 2/3 IP, 9.45 ERA, 8 H, 6 BBs
The guys that didnt make the cut (at Gwinnett):
Flande (LHP) + Marek (RHP) + Abreu (RHP) + Ascencio (RHP): 13 2/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 9 H, 13Ks
Didnt rear its ugly head tonight (even Linebrink couldnt screw up tonights win), but its something to look at. :)
I’d forgotten that Marlins fans don’t even travel to home games from Miami..
McLovin,
The #2 hitter comes to the plate in equally important situations as the #3 hitter. This is an empirically derived conclusion. Everything you need to know about line-up optimization is in that article I linked to in comment #11, you should read it before discussing the topic.
EDIT: I don’t care if you want to talk about line-up optimization, you’re not the only one. I’d just prefer you familiarize yourself with the research done on the subject before hand.
Re: batting order
Is it possible that Fredi is trying express confidence in McLouth by hitting him up in the order, and that he’s willing to concede what even the Book says is a negligible difference in run production overall, at least for this critical period in McLouth’s year?
The optimized line up being based of the very same line up the book claims is flawed is bassackwards. Not to mention, it will have to eventually provide the three hole hitter with more opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position over time… Eventually warranting a swith back to the traditional line up.
At the end of the day, if you can sit two competent hitters in front of your best (ie… Martin and Chip), you do so. If you can’t than I’m all for the books method. However its apparent non-reliance on speed at the top of the order still baffles me.
Glad to see Hanson get back on track. Not glad to see McLouth give himself up in that situation. All he has to do is pull the ball/roll it over and Prado’s on third (I know it’s easier said than done) and who knows, maybe he gets a base hit and Prado comes home. It would have been a good play if he were batting 9, but certainly not at 2. It may have worked out with Chipper going oppo for the sac fly, but it seemed like Little League to me.
25) I think Fredi’s said as much, but not sure to whom. Yes, we’re a better team if McLouth is playing well, but sooner or later this experiment has to come to an end. It doesn’t make any sense for McLouth to get more ABs than Heyward. It’s not like the team is picking up his option for next year anyway.
@McLovin
I wouldn’t have a problem with McLouth himself batting 2nd if there was no Heyward and I don’t think many other people would (if he starts hitting like he did in 09 at least). The problem is that Heyward is a far better option and that McLouth is taking at bats away from him.
Real good defense last night all around. The 5-4-3 double play in the 7th(?) was picture-perfect. Uggla can really turn them.
Not to make this once again into a lineup debate (even though it seems as as if it already has), we saw another instance of why Heyward shouldn’t bat sixth. In the fifth inning with a runner on base, the Fish’s skipper opted to walk Heyward to get to Gonzalez, who promptly flew out to end the inning (after a pitching change). With an empty base, why wouldn’t a manager intentionally walk him? It’s great for Heyward’s OBP, I suppose, but i believe our team will score significantly less in this set up.
Anyway, that’s all. Great win, but I’m still not all in love with Hanson. Our defense had a gold glove night, and I’m wary of our ability to do that every night he pitches. He gave up leadoff hits in 4 (I believe?) of his seven innings, and hegot lucky on at least one call that shouldnt have been a strike and could have loaded the bases. Nothing about what he did besides touching 95 made me think that he was “back.”
I hate to dog pile on poor McLovin, but I doubt the Marlins take the bat out of McLouth’s hands with A-Gon coming up and 1st base open with 2 outs, as they did to Heyward in the 5th.
Isn’t all this debate back and forth about the lineup completely pointless? Doesn’t common sense come in to play here? That being you don’t bat your best player 6th. Let us look at the facts:
-Heyward is our best hitter. Period. Batting your best player 6th goes well beyond asinine.
-Heyward will easily lead our team in OnBase% and probably be top 5 in the entire MLB. Why would you want one of the top OnBase% guys in the league batting in front of A-Gon / Freeman / Pitcher?
-In most all high leverage game situations, Heyward will be pitched around to get to A-Gon, and rightfully so, as A-Gon and his career sub .700 OPS sucks.
-It’s all about team run production, not how many RBI’s Heyward gets. People will cry that Heyward will not drive in as many runs from the 2 hole. Who gives a shit!! The team will score more runs. I would actually argue he will drive in just as many or possibly even more as he will not be getting pitched around so regularly.
The line-up discussion is getting more and more national traction. David Schoenfield at ESPN’s SweetSpot weighs in on what Freddi might be thinking.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/8942/move-jayson-heyward-up-in-order
He gives four possible reasons, and I suspect it is a combination of all of them. And I wouldn’t discount #4 (not realizing just how good Heyward is) as improbable as it sounds.
@Peter, is there anyway we could get a full blogpost on the issue since it is apparently going to stay with us as a long as the lineup stays as it is. Schoenfield took more of the manager’s motivation angle. I was hoping you could analyze the lineup using more of the advanced statistics. Thanks.
Harris, Peter already did that. Search for “obligatory” in the box in upper right.
Anyways, reading the post-game quotes on DOB’s blog, I enjoyed how he or Bowman apparently fed Fredi and the players questions about the lineup really producing, as if scoring 5 runs off Volstad justifies the lineup. I told myself earlier that I wouldn’t continue to let myself get worked up over this, but it just drives me crazy. Hopefully, when Uggla starts not-sucking, Heyward will start having more at bats in “run-producing” situations, and I can get over it. In the meantime, Heyward leads the team in times on base but has only scored once when he didn’t hit a HR or a leadoff triple.
Still, it is much more important that Hanson looked like he had his stuff back.
@ 31/
I just read that ESPN article, and then – ugh – read the comments. The stupid, it burns. I mean, seriously, with a few exceptions, most of the comments there are simply asinine. I suppose I shouldn’t expect any better from the ESPN masses, but I didn’t think that level of stupid was just staggering.
And I am much relieved to see Hanson’s FB have some zip in it. Was about to get worried there.
Finally, thanks, CAC for this blo9g – it’s been wonderful reading it. I’m still a relative newbie to sabremetrics, so I’ve not posted before lest I show my ignorance, but I just had to say something to get the taste out of my mouth after the ESPN comments section.
Hizouse, Thanks! I managed to miss that when I was out of town for a week. Now, I can get completely up to speed. I am also trying to not get worked up over this, but it is hard to watch every night without getting frustrated. And I agree about Hanson. His strong outing managed to assuage my frustration yesterday evening.
Go read the article that Harris linked to but try not to read the comments…….wow.
@34 The comments were just plain amazing.
Rob Neyer has picked up Schoenfield’s post at SB Nation.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/4/13/2107937/where-should-jason-heyward-bat
He agrees that “penciling Nate McLouth in the No. 2 slot …is just a crime against sabermetrics, pure and simple” but concludes with: “Really, this is about aesthetics more than anything. It just looks wrong for McLouth to be listed four slots ahead of Heyward. And yes, I wish Gonzalez would stop it. If only because we don’t get to see Heyward hit quite as often. And because we have to watch McLouth bat more.”
I like the national press it is getting. Peter, they will have you on all the talk shows before you know it. :-)
Hizouse/32,
I echo your sentiments to the fullest degree regarding DOB/Bowman acting like the 5 runs we scored was an offensive explosion that this lineup was waiting for!! Oh boy! We knocked around Volstad!!!
My biggest passion in life right now is talking shit about Fredi Gonzalez. I know, pathetic life..but the guy is one of the most stubborn SOB’s I’ve ever encountered in sports. It’s not even SABR, it’s basic math. This clown says he’s been to SABR events, but he can’t even add or subtract. Ohh unless that addition or subtraction is related to the almighty RBI!
Home of Johnny Manager is right. End soapbox.
anyone catch Tommy Hutton’s shot at Fredi, at least I perceived it as such, stating Edwin Rodriguez is more aggressive and less predictable as a manager?
Just started laughing at that, though it doesn’t seem very predictable to be batting your best hitter sixth.
One of the comments regarding why Jason should not be in the 2 hole…”He hits the ball too hard”
@36 Todd
I’m right there with you brother.
I’m starting to think this whole thing might be coming down to Fredi’s pride. He has to be aware that everyone is talking shit about him in the media concerning his inability to throw a decent lineup out there. He fears that making lineup changes now, will be in a way, admitting that he was wrong. And this douchey, prideful man, will have none of that.
He will probably wait until an injury of some sort opens the door for him to move Heyward up in the lineup. Which will make it appear that his hand was forced, thus saving face.
Anybody else think that Fredi is now to the point where he’s offended by all the criticism and he views batting Heyward 2nd as giving in to the “Johnny managers?”
His stubborness documented by some of his Marlins lineups has me seriously worried.
From Neyer’s article:
“But the odds against the Braves missing a playoff spot because of Fredi Gonzalez’s batting orders — as opposed to the players he actually uses — are exceptionally long.”
I actually disagree. If Gonzalez uses the current lineup or something like it all season long, I wouldn’t be surprised if it costs the Braves 2-3 wins, easily enough to influence the wildcard race. As I’ve said before, the difference between an optimized lineup and a traditional lineup is 1-2 wins, but the Braves’ current lineup, in which their best hitter bats 6th, is significantly worse than a standard traditional lineup, in which the best hitter bats 3rd or 4th.
I’m sure CAC and others are tired of all the lineup talk, especially since everyone is basically in agreement so there’s really nothing new to say. I keep trying to avoid talking about it, but for some reason it’s really really hard. It’s just so glaring and would be so easy to fix…
I wouldn’t be surprised if Heyward finishes the year in the top 5 in MVP voting… I’m not gonna look it up, but I wonder if any non-pitcher has ever done that while batting as low as 6th.
@39 NOLGWAM,
Yeah, it could definitely be a pride/save face thing. And that is extremely sad if that is the true color of Bobby Cox’s replacement.
Someone from upper management needs to say something to Fredi privately. I think in Florida, he could get away with this kind of stuff because their upper management is not particularly strong (see: Loria, Jeff), but hopefully the Atlanta front office is capable of handling this appropriately.
And I know lineup construction isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme, but I’m right with Rob Neyer — it just doesn’t look right.
I was perfectly willing to accept (but not approve of) hitting Hwyard 6th because I assumed Fredi would move Heyward into the 2-5 slots depending on who had the day off. Doing so would give Heyward around 50 games in those slots, thus reducing the number of games he is buried in the 6th hole.
When Fredi gave Nate the day off and stuck Freeman in the 2 hole and left Heyward at 6th I gave up all hope. It certainly looks like Heyward is not going to bat 2nd no matter what, almost like it isn’t even an option in Fredi’s head. I imagine we will see Gonzo hitting 2nd before we see Heyward there considering Freeman has already manned the 2 hole over Heyward.
Do you think it is at all possible that Heyward has told Fredi he prefers not to hit 2nd?
@No one
It’s not pointless when the discussion and criticism is making it’s way all the way to the manager.
Granted I doubt the discussion here is going directly to anyone, but the general idea that everybody but Fredi hates the lineup is obviously getting to him in some way.
P.S. Fredi:
Bat Heyward second.
@No one
It’s not pointless when the discussion and criticism is making it’s way all the way to the manager.
Granted I doubt the discussion here is going directly to anyone, but the general idea that everybody but Fredi hates the lineup is obviously getting to him in some way.
P.S. Fredi:
Bat Heyward second.
Just in case.
@46 DowneasterJC
I completely agree that we need to continue bitching about it as it is completely absurd. What I was saying is that there is no basis for a debate here, it’s as cut and dry as they come.
The Book weighs in
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/is_jason_heyward_the_new_freddie_lynn/