A Modest Proposal
June 29, 2009 at 12:44 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Billy Beane, St. Louis Cardinals, Transactions
Three way trades rarely happen in Major League Baseball. They just don’t. They do in the NBA, but not in MLB. But they’re not prohibited and they’re not completely un-heard of. Take the Mike Hampton trade for example (OK, so bad example to try to convince Braves fans that a 3-way trade is worth doing). Or the Jason Bay trade (OK, another bad example). Point is, they exist.
Since we’re on an Atlanta Braves site and I am talking about a 3-way trade, you assume I’m talking about either adding a competent corner outfielder or selling off a trade chip. I’m talking about the former. I still believe this team has a chance to win this year. Not with that worthless waste of space occupying right field, but with the other 7-10 regulars and 1 additional player. This 1 additional player is what I’m talking about.
The Cardinals acquiring Mark DeRosa is significant to this trade proposal. Not because DeRosa would’ve been a good fit for Atlanta (he’d have been OK, but not quite what I envision as an ideal piece), but because it shows the Cardinals are committed to winning now. They’re looking to contend for the World Series this season. DeRosa is a nice addition for them, but acquiring a rental means you’re looking to win now. Why stop there?
It has been well documented that the Cardinals were in pursuit of Matt Holliday. And for good reason. If the Cards are in win-now mode, Holliday is a perfect fit. They have the financial flexibility and they’re looking for a bat to protect Pujols. Matt Holliday would make not only make the Cardinals a virtual sure-thing for the post-season, he’d make them the favorite (or close to it behind LA and their spectacularly weak NL West schedule) to win the NLCS. The asking price on Holliday is high. It has been reported that the asking price is as high as Brett Wallace. This will likely come down as Billy Beane feels more pressure to deal Holliday as the deadline approaches (he says there’s no pressure, I’m not buying it). But still likely out of the Cardinals price range prospect-wise.
The Cardinals were reportedly willing to part with Ryan Ludwick in order to acquire Matt Holliday. I believe this is the Braves second chance (they missed the boat on the first chance) to acquire a very special player in Ryan Ludwick. The first chance occurred in the off-season when a swap of Kelly Johnson and Ryan Ludwick was rumored but never came to fruition. This was a huge mistake and should not be made again. If the Cardinals are looking to acquire Matt Holliday and they’re willing to part with Ludwick for him, the Braves should get involved sending prospects to Oakland to help the Cardinals acquire Ludwick. Something like Cardinals get 1 piece of bullpen help and Matt Holliday, Oakland gets two 1st-3rd round talent level prospects in the low minors (the equivalent of what Beane would get in the draft without the task of signing his draft picks while saving money by unloading Matt Holliday), and Atlanta gets Ryan Ludwick and cash.
Ludwick is currently experiencing a slump. Since returning from the disabled list, he’s hit .180/.260/.292 with 3 HR. A drastic change from his .274/.339/.538 pre-DL. Injuries have been a problem for Ludwick throughout his career and I have to believe that injuries are currently causing his slump. But Ludwick has shown the ability to post monster numbers when healthy, hitting .299/.375/.591 with 37 HR in 2008 hitting line drives 28% of the time (down to 17% this season, I blame the injury). A healthy Ryan Ludwick would certainly make the Atlanta Braves a competitive team. And even a not-healthy Ludwick isn’t that much of a downgrade from Jeff Francoeur.
Atlanta and St. Louis have the pieces to pry Holliday from Oakland and the thought of Holliday in St. Louis is enough to pry Ludwick from Oakland. Would the Cardinals be interested in Kelly Johnson still (he’s also slumping, a buy low sell low proposition)? Or would we be looking at providing a bullpen arm and a prospect (ala. Manny Acosta and Craig Kimbrell or the like)?
Bottom line, if the Cardinals are still serious about acquiring Matt Holliday and they’re still interested in moving Ludwick in the process, Frank Wren should ensure Ludwick ends up in Atlanta, not Oakland.
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Call me crazy but I still believe in Kelly Johnson. In fact, I think he is the make or break element to this season.
Prado shouldn’t start second for 2 reasons: 1. Playing Prado kills our bench depth. 2. Prado is best at backing up Chipper, and pinch-hitting.
I love this entry, and hope it’s pulled off.
By the way, did you ever get around to reading 3 Nights in August?
hmm, possibly wouldn’t it be easier to get another RFer of the same age as Ludwick, Josh Willingham… he has an OBP of 399
can he play everyday?? or is manny acta just crazy for giving Austin Kearns any playing time?
Jurrjens4NLCY,
I still believe in Kelly. He’s doing everything right and getting unlucky. Trading him out of frustration would be a bad decision.
Keith,
Willingham is very injury prone and plays bad defense (but then again Ludwick is very injury prone and plays bad defense, though better than Willingham). Willingham is an every day player. He’s like the Nationals’ Matt Diaz. He’s better than one of the regulars but rides the pine because, well, I can’t really figure out why either of them rides the pine. I just think right now is a great time to buy low on Ludwick. And if he hits anything like he did in 2008 we have a very, very, VERY gifted player.
You really like Ludwick huh? Do you like Mclouth batting leadoff by the way?
Joe, You beautiful, beautiful man you’ve given me an idea. Since we all know what Nate can do with a fastball right down the chute, why not get a true true leadoff hitter (someone like Juan Pierre) and bat Nate 4th? I think we could get Joey Gathright for pure piss seeing as he was acquired off waivers. Even if you don’t like the idea, Joey would definitely be a nice pinch runner in the late innings.
I’m a fan if he can stay healthy. I just think it’s a good opportunity to buy low. As far as McLouth batting leadoff, I don’t really care. That’s fine for the moment. There isn’t another logical place to bat him that doesn’t make us extremely LOOGY vulnerable.
True leadoff hitters are overrated.
Overrated? WHAT!?! A true leadoff hitter would get on base, steal 2nd, and give the 2, 3, and 4 hitters a chance to bring him home. Its like a leadoff double (Which true leadoff hitters can get). Speed never goes in a slump. And going from 1st to 3rd on a single provides more opportunities to score.
I don’t really agree. Speed in general is overrated. Although it is much more important to be able to “take an extra base” than to steal bases. I’m all about not giving away any outs. And stealing bases is a great opportunity to give away an out.
okay, well, speed itself is not overrated, example: LA Angels and Rays… yet, is their success the result more so of having aggressive managers, than one like bobby, who sits back looking for those 3 run homeruns from Fred Mcgriff…. but who are TRUE leadoff hitters, anyway?? only two come to mind, Ichiro and Rickey.
People have different definitions of “true leadoff hitters”. If your definition is: singles hitters with low SLG% and steals a ton of bases, then they’re highly overrated. I’m not adverse to speed, I certainly don’t think it’s a bad thing. I just think that’s the last thing you add to the equation on offense. The most important things are 1) the ability to get on base (which has 2 components, 1 hitting for average which is more important (which speed can also impact ala reaching on errors, infield hits, etc) and 2 drawing walks which are also important but not as important as avg) and 2) the ability to hit for power. After that you’ll add your speed. Smart baserunning is more important than base-stealing ability and pure speed. Gregor Blanco is a very fast runner but a crappy baserunner. Matt Diaz is not the fastest fellow, but he’s a very serviceable baserunner because he’s a smart player. Same with McCann. By the way, we need a new 3B coach. I’m sick of seeing him throw up the stop sign at 3rd for a runner from first on a 2-out double.
i completely agree with that last comment peter
so how about PRADO tonight? wow
Ya, man. How about that? What a night. I just did a quick analysis. Bobby Cox named Prado the starting 2B after that performance.
My definition of a true leadoff hitter offensively is someone who can get on base, whether its a walk or hit or the other 4 or 5 ways to do it, has speed to score from first, or go to third on a single, enough speed to take an extra base, very heads up on the base paths (whether it’s stealing or running).A true catalyst! My definition of a leadoff hitter is someone with a low SLG% and high OBP. Someone like Reyes, Ichiro, or maybe even Juan Pierre.
Juan Pierre kind of sucks. He has a career .348 OBP (fueled by this year’s high BABIP average), and hasn’t come close to that figure in any recent year except this one (a fluke). Plus he’s horrible in the field.
I agree that an effective base stealer is more valuable than someone with just pure speed. An example of this is Deion Sanders. One of the fastest men to ever play baseball but had no clue as to steal bases or more importantly read pitchers. Nate McLouth is nowhere near as fast but understands the art of stealing a base an thus has a better success rate. Giving away outs kills rallies and changes innings. Ichiro and Crawford are great example of effect base stealers as opposes to Pierre and Reyes who are arguably faster but don’t steal effectively.
As for Ludwick he is great an a buy low proposal. An would be a great bridge until Heyward is ready.
Another great piece Peter.
I like the trade idea, but where is the part where Francoeur isn’t in Atlanta any more? I love the idea of Ludwick, because he has some great power, but we gave up 7 prospects in the Vazquez and McLouth trades. I’m sure the FO is reluctant to deal away much more. One player who I would l would love to get my hands on is John Mayberry, he has loads of potential. Power, speed, a cannon, too bad his is with Philly.
Thanks Lamar. Bill, I think once you have a competent right fielder the problem takes care of itself. Whether Francoeur is DFA’d, sent to the minors, waived, traded, released, etc.. The problem will fix itself.
Mayberry Jr. has a .255/.331/.472 career minor league line and he’s already 25 years old. I don’t know too much about him. He’s never been a highly regarded prospect that gets written about. I could be wrong, but I smell 4th OF type.
Yea I’m not sure if he’s a proven prospect, based on stats or anything, but I can see that he has lots of potential. I’m not an expert or a scout or anything, so take it with a grain of salt. I’ve heard speculation of him hitting behind Ryan Howard one day in the future, so that might show how they fell about his talent and athleticism.
Mayberry was also drafted in the first round twice, 28th overall in 2002 and 19th overall in 2005. He is just wishful thinking though, seeing as how we probably won’t deal within the division. Maybe if we fall in the standings too far, we could deal Vazquez to Philly.
I just don’t know anything about him. He certainly could be a load of potential waiting to bust out. One thing to consider, his draft stock may have (not saying it did) increased because of the fact that he comes from a baseball family. His father was a MLB first-baseman.