Phillies Series Preview Q&A with Bill Baer
May 6, 2011 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Last night the Braves took a plane, train, or plantain to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies for a 3-game set. The Braves will face the same trio of starting pitchers in Philadelphia that they did in Atlanta earlier in the year, so good news: no Roy Halladay. Bad news: they still have to face Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt in some order. The Braves have a decision to make regarding their Sunday starter. Seeing as Mike Minor pitched a full complement of innings last night he’s not available for a spot start, so they’re probably looking at going with either Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson on 3 days rest. While that business is sorted out we’ve brought in Bill Baer, the proprietor of SweetSpot’s Phillies’ blog: Crashburn Alley, to answer a few questions about the Phillies in preparation for the upcoming series.
1. Obligatory Chase Utley question: last time we talked there was no timetable for Utley’s return. Recently we’ve heard he’ll be heading out on a rehab assignment soon, so it seems like he’s close to returning. How big is it going to be for the Phillies to get him back?
He’ll be going down to Florida for extended spring training. After that, he could begin rehab. I’ll be happy if he’s back before the All-Star break, but I’m not counting on it. Getting him back and producing at his previous high level will be huge, as the Phillies’ current options at second base — a platoon of Wilson Valdez and Pete Orr — is very lackluster, roughly replacement level. On average, Utley is a 6-7 WAR player, so you get an idea just how much he means to the team.
Even when he’s not hitting, which is rare, Utley is the best defensive second baseman in baseball (when healthy) and runs the bases quite well.
2. The bullpen has suffered two key injuries in Lidge and Contreras but the results have been just fine. Is this a testament to how good Madson, Bastardo, and the like are, or is it just early? Or have the starters/offense just been so good that they don’t really need the bullpen very much?
It’s both. Madson seems to be criminally underrated by the Phillies and by the fans. Because he got a little unlucky in a very small sample of games over the last couple seasons when he was asked to close, it took injuries to both Lidge and Contreras for him to earn a shot at redemption. Madson is one of the best relievers in the game right now, but hardly anyone would believe you if you told them that.
Bastardo has impressed me so far, sample size be damned. If he can harness his control issues, I am very comfortable with the Phillies’ bullpen in future years, assuming they do the right thing and sign Madson to an extension.
You’re right that the Phillies haven’t needed the bullpen much. A Phillies starter has gone seven innings or more in 16 of 30 games. On average, National League starters accounted for 65.8 percent of innings. Phillies starters have accounted for 71 percent of innings.
3. Speaking of the starting staff, they are rolling so far. Is this how good you expected it to be? Better? Worse?
About as good. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels each rank in the top-eight in SIERA among starters with at least 30 innings, and Oswalt should end up in the top 20-30 by the end of the season. Joe Blanton, on the mend from an elbow injury, has been super unlucky. His 5.92 ERA is extremely misleading. I actually think the rotation has performed slightly worse than expected, all things considered. And by the way, Cole Hamels was my pre-season pick to win the Cy Young. Don’t look past him. I know you didn’t, Peter, but he doesn’t get enough national attention.
4. Raul Ibanez hasn’t been very good thus far but he’s shown a few things as of late. What do you make of his 2011 campaign to date and what do you expect going forward? Possibly related: who has been the biggest pleasant surprise and the biggest disappointment for the 2011 Phillies.
I made a bold prediction during the off-season, saying that Ibanez would finish 2011 with a .360 wOBA. I may or may not have been under the effects of hallucinogenic drugs then, I don’t recall. Although he’s come around, and although he has a reputation as a streaky hitter, I’m not expecting a .360 wOBA anymore. I’ll be happy with a league average wOBA (.315) when all is said and done. Then, I expect him to retire after the season.
Who has been the biggest surprise? I’d say either Bastardo or John Mayberry Jr. I was critical of Mayberry going into the season, saying he could only hit left-handers and could not hit breaking pitches, but he has proven me wrong thus far. He’s done enough to justify the increased playing time. If Ibanez goes into another funk, I think Charlie Manuel will be quick to implement a platoon in left field. He’s kept Ibanez on the bench against left-handed starters recently, but there is no official platoon yet.
The most disappointing? That’d probably be Ibanez. Nobody expected him to contend for the NL MVP award, but his April was just abysmal, bad beyond anyone’s expectation.
5. Domonic Brown: off the DL, back to the minors. When can we (and by “we” I mean my fantasy team) expect him back?
I’ve been citing this whenever someone asks me about Dom Brown: in the past, Keith Law has estimated that it takes 12-18 months for a hitter to regain his power after a hamate bone injury. However, Brown hit two home runs immediately upon his return to live baseball in Single-A Clearwater. He’s yet to hit one since moving to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but if Brown doesn’t have to wait the suggested 12-18 months, that is extremely good news and it makes his path back to the Majors a lot easier.
If Brown performs well with the Iron Pigs and has no setbacks, I’d expect to see him back before the end of May. I would also expect him to be part of a platoon in right field at first, with Ben Francisco starting against lefties and Brown against the right-handers. Part of me wants Brown getting all of the AB’s in right field, moving Francisco into a platoon with Ibanez, but a platoon in both corners may be the best option.
6. What is Pete Orr doing on the roster? Does he have pictures? We used to have this theory that the Braves kept Pete Orr around because he had incriminating pictures of someone related to a front office executive, is that the case here?
Pete Orr is on the roster simply to keep the @PeteOrrFacts Twitter account intact. For reals, though, Orr is on the roster as the team’s fifth infielder and happened to fit nicely in a platoon with Valdez. If Amaro climbs aboard the team bus, then gets a phone call notifying him that Utley is ready, he would kick Orr off the bus himself with his bare hands and some steel-toed boots.
7. Cole Hamels hit a triple. Discuss.
Dude can hit, no joke. I’ve been waiting for him to hit a homer for several years now, but I guess that honor belongs solely to Joe Blanton when it’s World Series time.
Thanks to Bill for his thoughtful answers and for indulging my silliness. Be sure to check out Crashburn Alley for some Phillies-centric analysis throughout the series and in the future, they’re the best in the business.
UPDATE: The counterpart of this Q&A can be found here.
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[...] blog network. We swapped questions and answers, so make it a point to click through to CAC to see my responses to his questions as [...]
I was at a spring training game last year against the Phillies and Madson came in and was booed. He promptly gave up the lead and was booed some more. Lol, every team would love to have Madson in the back end of the pen, except Philly fans.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/14/ryan-madsons-wife-hates-phillies-fans/
Oh, and it makes no sense to boo Werth for taking a mega contract because Lee was a the better investment and they couldn’t have both.
Doesn’t make much sense to boo Santa Claus either, but I think a lot of GM’s around the league would take their ticket sales the way they pack CBP with monotonous regularity.
Nice job, Peter, I hope you keep doing these.
Even when Fredi makes a good decision (starting McCann vs. Oswalt on Saturday, even though JJ is pitching), his “logic” is so tortured I want to claw my eyebals out.
per DOB: “I don’t want to make a big deal out of it, because we’re not married to it,” Gonzalez said. “But just looking ahead, J.J. is going to throw Saturday and I’m looking at Mac to catch him, because Mac’s got pretty good numbers against all these [Philly pitchers].”
Mac’s good numbers against Oswalt: 2-for-6 with 2 BB. Yeah, Mac really owns him. More from DOB:
“To say David Ross catches Jurrjens every time, and then all of a sudden you come across a matchup, a pitcher that McCann just wears out, where he has 22 hits in 30 at-bats against one guy, and that just happens to play against [the personal catcher arrangement]….
“I don’t want it to get to a point where J.J. is 7-0 with Ross catching him, then all of a sudden we get that matchup offensively and we play Mac, and for whatever reason J.J. gives up 20 [runs]. You know what, then [having McCann catch him is] ruined.
“So before we get to that point, I think we won’t get to that point. Hey, that’s a Yogi Berra[-ism].”
Oh wait–so now you’re saying you’re not playing Mac against Oswalt because he has good numbers against Oswalt, but because (a) Mac might have really good numbers against someone else pitching on the same day as JJ and (b) JJ might suck on that same day if Mac catches, which would result in (c) Fredi being critcized or Mac or JJ apparently refusing to play with each other or something else that would somehow “ruin” things and prevent Mac from catching JJ for the rest of the season.
Yeah, the Braves take perennial heat for having lack-luster attendance, but based on the fact that the Phillies and their sub-human fan base consistently sell out games, maybe poor attendance says good things about the quality of people in a fan base. Maybe it’s a positive thing to have a rich, diversified life that doesn’t leave time for obsessive attendance at baseball games. Marlins and Rays fans, for instance, probably live <100 miles from beautiful warm beaches – wouldn't it be a worse fanbase if hordes of them chose sitting in big concrete monstrosities nightly instead of enjoying the incomparable joys of the ocean?
Love the preview Q&As (was directed from Crashburn).
@BenS…that’s a slipperly slope there with quantifying poor attendance with more rich, full lives. But i will say – i will 100% of the time take our sub-human, obssesive fan base – the one guys like Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee want to play in front of – than one that knows nothing about the game and is too good to attend/support their team.
No.
Why was attendance brought up?
You’re right, BenS, and I’m sure the Braves ownership group is very happy with that trade-off.
You’re a credit to Atlanta fans everywhere, BenS.
Good luck Atlanta, looking forward to seeing this renewed and refurbished Jurrjens in action.
Love the interviews, keep’em coming.
@BenS
Your attempt to spin a thriving franchise and its passionate fanbase as a negative thing is just ridiculous and makes you look petty. Learn to form sensical arguments, kid.
Today is my last day of college, ever. Can we refrain from starting an attendance/fanbase argument and just ignore what’s been said so far? Please? You have no idea how much I’d appreciate it.
I would like to point out that the combined age of the three writers of this site is younger than Bobby Cox. Just a random thought.
@CAC
Congratulations on the forthcoming GT degree
Thanks. Still have to pass my exam in 2 hours!
Congrats, pwh. Drink your whiskey clear, you ramblin’, gamblin’ helluva an engineer!
(Changing to SteveW since my post @3 and @10 weren’t the same Steve)
Didn’t mean to start an attendance controversy at all. I was just trying to say, as a Braves fan, the Philly fans have the right to boo whoever they want if they are as invested in the team as they seem to be. Especially if they drove Madson out of town and out of the division.
Good luck on the remaining finals, Peter.
Thank god for uptight Phils fans. But yes, congrats to you Peter. I’ve never felt so hungover as the day after my last exam at Tech. A four-year bender coming to a close. Got anything lined up for afterward yet?
So much for Marek getting a shot this year or making the team out of ST next year. And it sounds like we’re going to be missing Moylan the rest of the year. Guess we’ll be seeing plenty of Proctopus, Sherrill and Linebrink this season.
Congrats Peter. One of the proudest days of my life.
and to hell with UGA.
Congrats CAC. I graduated GT in 2009 and still cannot figure out how you had time to graduate and finish Tech as well as run this blog.
Congratulations, Peter. Enjoy that feeling that starts when you walk out of that last exam. It’s a great one.
It was a great one, though not as great as hearing the news that JULIO FUCKING TEHERAN IS STARTING SATURDAY!