Detailing Jurrjens’ New Approach
May 9, 2011 at 11:30 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
No matter how big the sample size, the fact of the matter is that Jair Jurrjens is a new pitcher.
This year, his new numbers have come with a completely different approach. In the new days of pitch f/x and sabermetrics, scrutiny of pitchers is stronger than ever and thanks to this revolutionary change, the evidence behind Jurrjens’ success is clear-cut: his two-seam fastball.
Now, Jurrjens has thrown a two-seam fastball for a few years now, but it wasn’t until this season that he showed real confidence in the pitch. Thanks to JoeLefkowitz.com, I’ve created this quick chart below to show the increased dedication to his new favorite pitch.
| Year | v. RHB % | v. LHB % | Total % |
| 2009 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 2010 | 16.5 | 14.3 | 15.5 |
| 2011 | 36.6 | 24.8 | 31.1 |
It’s clear that he’s relying on his two-seamer more than ever in 2011, and it appears to be working. Through five starts, Jurrjens is on pace for a career low 2.69 FIP and 3.37 xFIP according to FanGraphs.com.
With the inclusion of his new favorite pitch, the Curacao native is inducing ground balls 50.4% of the time, compared to his 45.4% career average and 39.9% rate from last season.
While those numbers indicate that his 1.50 ERA, that’s mainly due to his spectacular 87.8% LOB% (his career average is 74.2%) this season. In addition to his strand rate, Jurrjens has allowed just 3.0% HR/FB which is also due to regress.
In short, Jurrjens reliability on his two-seam fastball and a slight decrease in velocity has paid dividends to this point, and while he’s probably going to experience a slight regressions, he’s still on pace for a career best season.
Loading ...
If we are going to be contending this year (we are) we should definitely hold on to Jurrjens. He is the best pitcher we have right now and pitching is more important than ever this year. We don’t really have any huge needs either. No point in trading him.
Good stuff.
His FB was moving a ton on Sunday night, which was very refreshing.
Carlos@1
On the strength of JJ’s sample size to date and salary for this season the Braves will have to be blown away with a sensational package to consider dealing JJ. Having said that if the right deal came along FW will probably keep an open mind on this.
I am assuming this off season will see 1 or 2 trades that involve our current rotation as we will need to find a CF, SS and LF if Prado was to take over from a retired Chipper (If he retires).
Linebrink & Sherill’s spots could use an upgrade but we could probably do that with our farm system.
CAC, any thoughts on how the position prospects are doing this season? Andrelton Simmons seems to be hitting singles OK but is striking out a fair bit. If he keeps up this level of hitting at the next level will we see him as a SS in the majors in 2-4 years?
@Roger/3
Andrelton Simmons has only struck out 22 times in 338 ABs in his minor league career. Not to sound condescending, but how is that striking out a fair bit? I’m thinking this might have been a mistake. But yes, he is a singles hitter with good-to-great speed (he has actually has 23 SBs in his short MiLB career… more than he has struck out).
If I’m not mistaken, he was also drafted because of his pitching abilities.
I think, right now, Tyler Pastornicky can be seen as the SS of the near future once Alex Gonzalez is gone. He has defensive lapses, which could be problematic. Also, because he’s a speedy guy, he doesn’t fit the mold of an Atlanta Braves player.
I would project him at a .270/.340/.700 type guy.
He’s averaged 46 SB/season over the last two years, so with a full season with the Braves, I think it’d be safe to project him at 10-12 SBs.
Then again, I could just as easily be completely wrong about all of it.
Shaunson
Yep, you are right. I just went back to the Lynchburg season stats (Lynchburg still sounds funny) and I was looking at LV Ware’s stats (20 SOs v 2 BB) which is directly below simmons (8 SOs v 5 BB).
CAC’s impression was Simmon’s defense is very close to ready but his hitting will be hot and cold moving forward. I guess it is a good thing that we have the rest of this season to see how Tyler develops.
@Roger/7
If Alex Gonzalez can maintain the numbers he’s putting up right now both offensively (which I kinda doubt) and defensively (its possible), I could see the Braves resigning him to another year contract.
Pastornicky is hitting .304/.358/.786 right now, but I see him regressing back to his typical .270/.340/.700 numbers. And, as if anyone is surprised by this… his SB numbers are down. In 2009 and 2010 combined, he had 1 SB per 2.6 games. This year, its down to 1 SB per 5.6 games. Granted, its still early, but those numbers are down even though he has been on base MORE than in those years. We’ll see how this works.
Plus, he and Andrelton Simmons are only 21, so they have a little time to develop.
Yeah I definitely don’t think Jurrjens would be traded during the season, but I think it could happen during the offseason. I think Lowe would be the most likely to be traded though if he puts up a good year, he wouldn’t fetch nearly as much value as Jurrjens I imagine but I could see a team taking on most if not all of the remainder of his contract which has quite some value in itself. I think other than Jurrjens Hudson would get quite a bit of value as well, but I doubt Wren wants to trade him and also he’s a 10/5 guy and seems like he wants to finish his career in Atlanta, not that I would mind that.
Trade d Lowe for a super Util player. Wish we still had Omar Infante 2 complete our team. Just 1 or 2 smaller pieces away. I’d look 4 RHP Bullpen upgrade since Moylan might b down 4 year with bad back. Trade D lowe to Yanks for a Good BP arm, prospect, and A bat. Wren said he wouldn’t mind adding RH power to bench. D ross could handle duties if Braves were to carry 3rd catcher with Strong defense. D ross would compliment hinske LH power nicely.
In the AJC’s postgame comments after Sunday’s start, JJ said he had changed his two-seam fastball to the “Jonny Venters grip”. I would guess that has something to do with the numbers Kevin pointed out here.
[...] Capitol Avenue: Kevin Orris goes in-depth on Jair Jurrjens’ new approach to pitching, sans injury. [Link] [...]
CAC,
Any chance Tommy Hanson would benefit from learning this pitch?
Jair is a good pitcher and I like him a lot, but he is overrated right now. He has not faced a team that is top 10 in runs scored. Here is a list of the teams Jair has faced and the runs scored rankings for them. Mets-17th, Dogers-22nd, Padres-29th, Brewers-20th and the Phillies-11th. We should probably wait until he faces a team in the top 10 in runs scored before we jump on the Jair Wagon. Also, his career ERA is 3.39. His nice 1.50 ERA right now can’t last forever.
I am enjoying JJ’s latest round of success, but with that in mind, I feel someone needs to be dealt. There is almost a complete lack of position-player talent in the upper-levels of Braves’ minor league system.
With holes in LF, CF, and SS coming up (depending on Chipper/Prado) – the Braves don’t have the minor league talent to fill those spots over the next season or two. Dealing a pitcher or two would definitely alleviate that issue.
I don’t see Wren trading anyone from the starting rotation during the season, even if someone from the starting lineup goes down.
This offseason is going to be one of the most interesting in recent memory because at least 1, and probably 2, of Hanson, JJ, Minor, Beachy and Lowe is going to be dealt for position players. The Braves entire system is almost completely barren as far as positional prospects go.
Guys like Schafer and Pastornicky are NOT the answer for a team competing for a title. They are at best place holders until a championship level player can replace them.
Look for Wren to extend Gonzo on a 1-2 year deal, and then use guys like JJ, Beachy, Delgado and Minor to acquire the CFer that is supposed to take over for the next decade. I would not be shocked to see a deal like Teheran for Trout…top prospect for top prospect. Probably not those guys exactly, but a deal as huge as that would not surprise me in the least.
To think, two weeks ago we were talking about including him in a trade for a CF.
I’m sure we will be trading some of our pictures in the offseason but hanson and teheran are probably the last 2 that we will be trading.
Sorry that was supposed to be pitchers obviously, not pictures
@ 14
The Phillies may not quite be in the top 10 in runs scored, but that is still a potent lineup, especially against a right handed pitcher like JJ. If he can shut them down, I’m quite happy.
@18
I wouldn’t be so sure of that. Teheran is probably off limits..but with Hanson being a Scott Boras client…I could see the Braves selling high on him..just like JJ. Would not shock me in the slightest to see those two dealt this off season for some serious talent at 3B/LF, CF, and SS..
Hanson probably won’t even hit arbitration this year. He’s not getting traded.
@ 20
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. JJ might have had a lucky game.
D Lowe has to go, he has to be 1st one Traded. I’d keep my Young arms Like Hanson, JJ, Beachy, Minor, Julio T, etc their all 25 and younger. Hudson can finish his career in Atlanta. I’d trade D lowe 4 prospects and 1 major league ready BP arm or Super Util type player or OF Help. Prado is nice in LF but he will be @ 3rd base when Chipper hangs it Up. We got buncho f Talent in pitching dept. But were very slack at position players.
[...] Detailing Jurrjens’ New Approach (Capitol Avenue Club)- Kevin Orris of CAC breaks down what Jurrjens is doing this year that he has never done in the past, resulting in the top performer in the Braves dominant rotation… [...]
Can we get a game chat goin’? This is brutal.
Here’s the recap of the game. Freddy allowed Martinez to hit for himself in the 8th (who struck out) because we were down 7 – 1 but we scored 5 that inning. Martinez had already pitched 3 innings and Sherrill (who never gets used) could have pitched the 9th if we were still down 7 – 1. Apparently Sherrill isn’t even an option in a 7 – 1 game.
Then we lost 7 – 6 while allowing a RP to strike out for himself, just saying.
I tend to only look at how our pitchers do when up against the good teams