Angels 4, Braves 1
May 22, 2011 at 6:17 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Contending teams shouldn’t be letting Tyler Chatwood go 7-5-1-2-6.
Also, Nate McLouth injured himself during his first plate appearance and had to leave the game, resulting in a Prado-Mather-Hinske OF alignment with Diory Hernandez at 3B (it was Chipper’s day off).
There’s no point in discussing the pitching staff if the team is never going to score runs. It’s a shame this good of a staff is being totally wasted.
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Is it too late to trade Uggla?
Another three hours of my life I’ll never get back. Our offense is beyond pathetic. Love how we managed to run ourselves out of yet another inning when Freeman took off for second on a ball that bounced at the plate and then bounced right off our hitter.
Geez, and uggla was supposed to be everything the braves needed to put them in the playoffs…ESPN the magazine in their season projections had ATL as one of the best offenses in the NL.
Remember how Uggla had historically hit over .400 at turner field? yeah, those were good times…back before the season started.
How far do you see Fredi letting this Uggla disaster go on? Give him a couple days off or at the very least drop him in the order. Watching him at the plate thus far this season is PAINFUL and Fredi isn’t doing him, nor this team, any favors by letting him continue to fail. What was that he was just quoted as saying about doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results?
Anyone who actually thought that the ballpark split data was an indicator of how Uggla would hit at Turner Field going forward is kind of a moron.
Well apparently there are a lot of moronic writers/ commentators in baseball then, that park split stat was repeated ad nauseum during the offseason.
Not that I believed in it, but at least I hoped it meant that Uggla wouldn’t have much trouble hitting HR’s at turner field. (Not like how A. Gonzalez was projected to hit a lot less HR’s since his barely reached the wall in Toronto and would just be fly outs in Atlanta)
3 – Well, technically they were good times for the Marlins. To that end, Uggla, like he did for several seasons before this one, continues to hurt the Braves… so at least in that he’s being consistent.
Indeed, Adam; hurray for consistency! :/
off topic, I’m curious to see how Charlie Morton will fare against the braves. It took him a couple more years of development, but it seems he’sturned a sustainable corner.
Uggla will get going sooner or later (hopefully sooner), I do think he needs to be moved down in the batting order… move Gonzo to the 5th spot and Uggla to the 7th. He needs to regain his form, but that doesn’t mean he has to kill all our scoring opportunities until he does.
When is empty headed Fredi going to move Uggla out of the 5 spot? That is supposedly a run producer’s spot and the teacher’s pet is doing anything but producing runs. Do yourself and Danny Boy a favor and move him to 7th or let him sit in Pittsburgh. Take some pressure off and get someone in that spot that may drive some runs in. Uggla is killing the Braves.
I either heard Joe Simpson say, or saw David O’Brien write a couple of weeks ago that Fredi wanted Uggla to sit a game, but Danny didn’t want to. Well who’s running the fucking show here? Maybe Fredi is too close to his pet. If that is the case, shouldn’t Wren talk to Fredi and “suggest” that Fredi get him out of the 5 spot?
I know GMs don’t [usually] get involved in what the manager’s job is, but maybe Fredi needs a nudge here.
Nudge is one way to put it.
Amen, Peter. I’m disgusted with this offense.
As for Fredi, obviously, most people fail to notice that he took the AL rules as a good time to tinker with the lineup. You don’t pay Uggla $16M to sit him. And when he was keeping the lineup largely the same, he was trying to generate stability, rhythm, and comfort– which requires patience, which seems to be completely lacking with most Braves-related comments I’ve seen.
Fredi’s bullpen management is a more or less a problem, but don’t act like Bobby’s was much better. I’m just being objective. The starting staff is absolutely being wasted, though. Fredi can’t do much with a batting order when the lineup refuses to hit and score runs. If any administrative blame needs to go around, the person to look at is Larry Parrish. But I wouldn’t even go so far as to cast blame on him. The players play. It’s not April anymore, there should be no rustiness.
And I guarantee you that you won’t hear Chipper, Prado, Uggla, or any other member of the offense blaming anyone but themselves. The batting order has way less to do with production than people are all of the sudden acting like. The reason Bobby was so successful wasn’t because he was a master tactician, it’s because he had full effort from his players because he played them even when they stunk sometimes. That’s what Fredi is trying to do… where do you think he learned it? So blaming Fredi for being tactically like his mentor doesn’t hold up… that’s utterly non-objective.
Bottom line: the player’s need to hit. It’s no one’s fault but their own. If you asked them, I promise they would tell you that exactly.
A little surprised Ramirez is coming up instead of Young. But I guess Mather will get most of the starts in RF now and he wants another righty on the bench. Ramirez is still struggling with consistency, hitting .248.
I think they just want someone athletic to potentially provide a spark. The Braves seem to be trying everybody. I love Matt Young, but I’m not opposed to the Ramirez move.
First off, why was Diory bunting when we had the lead? Let him swing the bat! It’s not like he did any good trying to bunt…
@7 – Well observed, haha!
@9 – My concern about Uggla is that he has a gaping hole on the outer half. Move up on the plate or something – but I feel like something needs to actively change for him. Bad luck doesn’t last this long. Until that happens, he needs to sit out a game or two and then get dropped in the lineup until he can actually hit again (grow a pair, Fredi!). Our 5-hole hitter being basically an automatic out is crippling us. Nevertheless, I really do appreciate your undying optimism!
Also, what’s the deal with Jason? Are we DL-ing him? We need more healthy bats, especially if Nate goes down for any length of time.
I posted this in the last thread regarding the magnitude of the Parrish Effect, but didn’t notice this thread was up so I’ll post it here.
Random variation exists for sure, but which is more likely:
That every Braves regular, including the tried and true vets, is just randomly underperforming at the same time for the same period of time, or that they’re all performing badly because they’re all receiving the same poor coaching?
I think the odds of being struck by lightning twice are greater than the former at this point. For one or two weeks, sure, maybe an inordinate number of players run into a dry spell, but we’re going on a third of the season now and little has changed.
Occam’s Razor: It’s the coaching.
Really starting to wonder if Heyward is the next Ken Griffey Jr. All world talent when healthy. Heck, Griffey didn’t go onto the DL until his 6th season. This is sad.
I see we did DL Jason – never mind.
@12
No, Fredi can’t make this lineup hit, and luckily for him, that’s not his job. His job is, however, to put this team in the best position possible to win games. No one who has watched Uggla struggle the way he has through 49 (almost 1/3 of the season) games could reasonably say that him hitting in the 5 hole gives the Braves the best chance at winning. How many times have we watched him trudge back to the bench after leaving runners on? They may not be paying him $12.4 mil a year to sit on the bench but even more importantly they aren’t paying him that much to lower the team’s chance of producing runs by being kept in a spot where he has no business right now.
@8/carl: Buying into this hype may be something that you can latch onto going on years into the future, but it was just last year when he was one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors, sporting an over 5.00 ERA. He may be the second coming of Roy Halladay, but that’s not something that ANYONE could have foreseen because he was a very mediocre pitcher when the Braves traded him away.
Uggla has been rather Uggly. Wonder if something is showing with a mechanical adjustment that has thrown him off. It’s obvious that Parrish hasn’t noticed it because it probably would have been taken off now.
Also, I think that over the last couple of years enough data would have been captured to completely scrap and overhaul whatever is going on with the Braves’ medical staff. It’s not like they’re doing their jobs anyway.
I wouldn’t be so disappointed with Uggla’s production if there were ANY attempt to make an adjustment of some kind. Here it is almost June and his swing is identical to opening day. At this point it should be pretty obvious that something is wrong. Our announcers aren’t the brightest and even they have suggested some adjustments, yet our hitting coach or even Dan himself can’t come up with anything? This is sad. It’s not like he could get much worse with an adjustment.
The front office better do something very soon. Larry Parrish’s head needs to roll and a fire needs to be lit under Fredi’s ass to show the fans that they’re not going to put up with this. They have been frustrating to watch all season and now it’s reaching despair. When you can’t even expect them do get runs with bases loaded and no outs then something horribly wrong and cannot be put up with any longer.
I’ll repeat my question from the last post, only because I’m very interested in the group’s thoughts. What does the CAC-reading public think of only four players showing up to the “optional” BP session yesterday?
The junior high pitcher on the mound for the Angels averages over 20 pitches an inning and 1 walk every 2. I stopped counting how many times our boys swung at the first pitch.
OBP!!! I don’t care if guys starting leaning over the strikezone, the Braves have to get on-base. And Parrish needs to stop dicking with everyone’s batting style. No name pitchers should be given no respect and guys should be able to gobble up a first pitch fastball inner half.
@23/Steve: If led by Parrish, I can see why so many didn’t bother to show up.
@23/Steve: I agreed with what CAC said, no way only four show up if Bobby was the manager
My kingdom for some perspective!
It’s May 22nd, the Braves are 3 games over and only 3.5 back. They are enduring catastrophic underperformances from proven players but have still managed to keep pace in the division.
Fredi’s in-game management has been exasperating, as has his line-up construction at times or his use of the bullpen, but hey, so was Bobby’s.
This isn’t the NFL or the NCAA, where teams change coaches like soiled underpants. Nor is this some fledgling MLB franchise that needs to be jump-started by a knee-jerk managerial change. The culture of this team is consistency and patience, and while I sometimes wish they would show a bit more urgency, I am also able to recognize that frantic, reactionary, thumb-sucking panic has no place in an Atlanta Braves clubhouse.
Until Fredi or Parrish or Wren are swinging the bats, catching the balls, or throwing the picthes, I’m not prepared to saddle them with the entirety of the blame, nor am I crying “Off with their heads!” in mid-May.
DowneasterJC,
Exactly. Three weeks into the season I’ll buy it’s random variation. At this point it’s incredibly unlikely that everyone is just having bad luck. Possible, but unlikely.
What does 7-5-1-2-6 mean? I assume it sucks…
Yes we can go face Pittsburgh’s no name pitchers now and get shut down. Id rather face the aces.
@20/Jon
Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t criticizing the trade for McLouth or giving away Morton at the time (even though it has worked out terribly for us on a purely monetary basis). I’m genuinely happy that he seems to have found an approach that is paying dividends for him.
The only thing that really ticks me off is when free agent signings or players gotten in trades don’t perform nearly as well as their career averages as soon as they put on a braves uniform. The first time I remember this happening was when they got Reggie Sanders; what a terrible year he had, and they just kept him in the lineup waiting…and waiting until he would get it going (which he didn’t).
This sort of thing has happened too often lately to the braves, and it happens so quickly that I couldn’t blame the park or hitting coach in most instances.
Just to put some more salt in our wounds, the Phillies just signed a guy who could really be helping us right now in Scott Podsednik. He’s been released for over two weeks while we knew we needed some speedier bench help and defense, yet we chose to go with the guys we have. Genius move as usual by the Braves front office.
@ 29 CAC
Isn’t that a false choice: random variation/luck vs. bad coaching? Aren’t there other potential non-random factors? Prado has always been aggressive, Freeman is a rookie without elite on-base numbers in the minors, Chipper is trying to be more aggressive to compensate for a declining skill set, J-Hey is hurt, etc.
Scott Podsednik is not capable of helping any major league team in any way. I hope he gets a lot of playing time in Philly, because that means they’ll win fewer games.
Steve, re: the optional batting practice to which only four guys showed: I say it’s a good indication of what the players think of Fredi & Parrish. Not much.
@Dave amen
I came home today from work after a particularly gruelling day dealing with inbred, one celled freaks in the medical wing of walmart and realised that things are not that bad, I could be called Dan Uggla.
For the first time in several years I am not bothered we have an off day tomorrow, I just await the next installment of the fuck up that our esteemed manager is creating. I know Bobby was loyal and stubborn and at times plain stupid but his blood must be boiling at this fuck up, we are a good team but unless things change we are screwed
Fredi or Wren have to do something soon. I mean, as much we get on Fredi, at least he’s been shaking up the order somewhat, but it’s obviously not working. One of them has to tell Parrish to change his methodology. That, or tell him to get the fuck out.
I know we don’t fire coaches mid-season, but does anyone honestly think that the Wreninator is going to sit on his ass if this dickless offense continues into mid-June? Because I certainly don’t.
John/30,
7 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts.
And yes, it sucks, considering Chatwood isn’t a major-league caliber pitcher right now.
well… balls.
League-wide wOBA has decreased by about 5 points since last year, which was down about 5 points from the previous year. League average wOBA by year:
2009: 0.32357
2010: 0.31823
2011: 0.31395
Zips projections are based on past performance, so you would expect them to be higher. If you take into account league-wide offense-reduction, it is easy to see that the Braves offense has hardly changed – although the approach is significantly different.
BTW – Braves were 9th in the NL in wOBA last year and 8th this year and are currently ranked higher in wOBA than the Phillies and Giants, the only teams with comparative pitching depth.
Zips projections are based on past performance, so you would expect them to be higher. If you take into account league-wide offense-reduction, it is easy to see that the Braves offense has hardly changed – although the approach is significantly different.
BTW – Braves were 9th in the NL in wOBA last year and 8th this year and are currently ranked higher in wOBA than the Phillies and Giants, the only teams with comparative pitching depth.
There is soooooo much wrong with this.
First, the basic facts. The Braves were not 9th in the NL in wOBA last year, they were 5th. They were 3rd in park-adjusted wOBA. This year they are 10th in wOBA and 9th in park-adjusted wOBA.
Furthermore, the 2011 Braves are a more talented offensive team than the 2010 Braves–they swapped Melky/Diaz for Uggla and Glaus for Freeman. They upgraded. They should be better. They’re a lot worse.
The league-average wOBA = the league-average OBA (both leagues). Heading into today’s games the league OBA was .319. The ZiPS forecasted run environment is based on a 3-year weighted average. OBA was .333 in 2008 and 2009 and .325 in 2010, so 5-3-1 is .328. Your adjustment factor is -.009. Using that adjustment, two of the eight regulars are where they’re projected. Prado is pretty close. Freeman is sort of close. McCann, Uggla, Heyward, and McLouth are way below their projected wOBA.
My mistake on the rankings, must have sorted based on WAR or something else accidentally. However, McLouth is an obvious outlier and is performing much higher than last year, Freeman is a rookie – where projections are notoriously bad – and Heyward has been battling an injury. So it comes down to a couple starters way under-performing, a rookie, and injury, and a bench that is way over-performing.
Granted, the offense isn’t ideal, but the Braves still have the highest second-order winning percentage, based on equivalent runs scored, and the highest third-order winning percentage, further adjusting for quality of opposing hitters/pitchers. It just seems like a little bit of an over-reaction.
That’s because their pitching/defense has been awesome. Their offense stinks and should be the best in the league. Period. Exclafuckingmationpoint.
From what I know since 2005, when you look at each of the Braves’ season, there is no consistency there. They can get hot just about any time of the season and cold as hell any time as well. So there is really no need to get so frustrated now.
What is new on pitchers, who is underperforming, shut down the Braves? There is no reason that why the Braves is struggling to score runs. Just wait for them to be better. Nothing else to be said.
For whoever saying about trading Dan Uggla, you will be a dead meat in stock market. Be patient…even if the signing is a mistake, it is a done deal. Don’t be stupid to think about trading blindly.
As it stands now, if Uggla had performed up to his Zips projection, the Braves would be 3rd in wOBA. Yeah, even though Uggla is likely to perform closer to his career norms, we should definitely fire our hitting coach right now. Where do I sign the petition?
Also, Fangraphs has the defense as one of the worst in the league. It’s been all pitching.
Whatever happened to the game that the Braves won 5-4 over the Angels? No need to post anything about that?
@48
With apologies to Peter, Hanson walked a lot of guys and Mather is on a hot streak.
Didn’t watch much of this one, but I feel confident I haven’t left a whole lot out.
If there already isn’t some commotion in the front office, I’d be willing to give it another month to sort itself out. The one problem I have so far is that these starting trends are not boding well for the rest of the season. The slumps in and of themselves may not be slumps and may be season-long if there aren’t major adjustments made to the approach of the Braves’ hitters.
It is very indicative of the coaching staff if there is an optional batting practice where so few players actually show up while the hitters are struggling as they are. Chipper would have stood by Bobby, but I can see him hanging Fredi out to dry or even hanging up the cleats next season if Fredi continues to coach.
#FireFrediGonzalez