So, you want to upgrade the Braves offense?
May 28, 2011 at 3:48 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
You’re frustrated with the Braves’ offense, we all are. You’ve watched them score only 3.87 runs per game–12th in the league–after they scored 4.56 runs per game–5th in the league–last year. You’ve seen them baffled by pitchers who don’t belong in the big leagues, you’ve seen them shut out four times, you’ve seen them score only once five times, and you’ve seen them squander quality start after quality start. What was billed as one of the league’s top offenses has been downright poor. You’ve seen the results-based statistics and you’ve seen the underlying/peripheral statistics. Everything you’ve seen adds up to this: the Braves’ offense has been a mess, and a very frustrating one.
Your frustration was justified. This type of performance is, indeed, unacceptable for a contending team, especially one that has as much offensive talent on their roster as Atlanta does. Seeing as the current group simply isn’t getting the job done, the natural inclination is to suggest upgrading the offense through a trade.
OK, but where would you even start? Let’s go through, position-by-position, and take a look at where they might be able to upgrade.
Catcher – Brian McCann
Uhh.. no. You’re not going to find a better catcher than Brian McCann on the trade market. McCann is not hitting particularly well by his standards–.281/.349/.404–and the team could certainly use more production wherever they can get it, but you’re not going to find a catcher who can do any better.
First Base – Freddie Freeman
Freeman is hitting .243/.326/.367. That’s not good enough for a first baseman. His approach leaves much to be desired, he’s hit a ton of ground balls, and he hasn’t been able to duplicate the power he showed in AAA last year. He’s only 21 years old and it’s only 50 games, but it might be time to consider the possibility that Freeman isn’t ready to be an every-day first baseman in the big leagues. There’s no shame in needing more time in the minors at the age of 21. We obviously didn’t expect Freeman to produce like Jason Heyward did during his rookie season–Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him. This wouldn’t be nearly as big of an issue if the rest of the offense were performing, but if you’re looking for a place to upgrade, first base wouldn’t be a bad place to start. Let’s be clear, I’m not saying the Braves should option Freeman down to AAA and go in a different direction at 1B for the rest of the year, just that the issue deserves some consideration.
Second Base – Dan Uggla
The man the Braves brought in to be their right-handed slugger, to balance their line-up, is hitting .183/.250/.335. He has been their worst hitter. Easily, I’d add. However, Uggla has more than 5 years of service and can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. He’s under team control for 4 years beyond 2011 for $52 million, making him virtually untradeable if the Braves would even want to. There is nobody else in the organization capable of serving as their right-handed, middle-of-the-order hitter, so their bed is made with Uggla and they’re going to have to deal with it, whether he turns it around or not.
Third Base – Chipper Jones
In addition to the fact that Chipper simply isn’t going anywhere, Chipper has been the team’s best hitter.
Shortstop – Alex Gonzalez
Sure, Alex Gonzalez is a hacker whose a poor bet to post a .300 on-base average. That’s what Atlanta signed up for when they acquired him. He’s done everything that he’s been asked to do, hitting .268/.297/.397. They could conceivably look to upgrade offensive output of the position, but at what cost? You’re not going to find a player whose capable of providing the type of defensive value Gonzalez does and hit enough to justify the cost of an upgrade on the trade market.
Left Field – Martin Prado
Prado led the league in outs made coming into last night’s game and made 4 more during it. He’s now hitting .283/.322/.425, which is not the type of on-base average you’d like to see from a top-of-the-order hitter. Still, with the defensive value he provides and the fact that he’s been one of the better hitters on the team, left field isn’t a place the Braves should be looking to upgrade.
Center Field – Nate McLouth
McLouth is currently disabled and when he wasn’t he hit only .238/.332/.341, good for a 90 wRC+. That’s obviously not great, but the .332 on-base average is 3rd among Braves’ regulars. Considering his poor fielding McLouth has roughly been a replacement-level player thus far, but that’s a refreshing step up from his 2010 campaign and from the type of production they’re getting out of first and second base. The Braves hold a club option for McLouth’s services in 2012 that they’re extraordinarily likely to decline, so cutting bait now isn’t much of an issue. Finding a center fielder who can provide an offensive boost, however, is an issue, and even if you can find one it’s going to cost a ton to acquire. It’s worth mentioning that through 3 games McLouth’s replacement, Jordan Schafer, has a) played acceptable defense and b) posted a .400 on-base average and not looked completely lost at the plate while doing it. Both of these things are surprises to me, and while I don’t expect them to last they might as well find out for sure if they’re going to before acquiring a center fielder. Not that the position is the team’s biggest concern, anyway.
Right Field – Jason Heyward
If you play injured you play poorly and hurt yourself even more. We’ve seen it 1,000 times, yet it never stops. Heyward tempted fate again, trying to play with a bum shoulder, and he got burned, posting a .214/.317/.407 triple-slash before being disabled. The good news is tri-fold. Good news item number one: Jason Heyward is a much better hitter than this and will hit better once he’s healthy. Good news item number two: two MRIs revealed no structural damage in Jason’s shoulder, meaning he’ll presumably be back to 100% with a reasonable amount of rest. Good news item number three: Heyward’s replacement–Eric “Big Damage” Hinske–has been on fire, posting a .330/.355/.534 triple-slash in 93 PA’s. Even if Heyward hits only .214/.317/.407 for the rest of the year (he won’t, he’ll do much better than that), that’s still better than what five of the team’s regulars have done so far.
In summary, the offense is underperforming in a nearly systematic fashion, but we can expect a good bit of this to change by simply doing nothing. In the mean time, it’s worth monitoring Freddie Freeman’s progress (I’d give him three or four more weeks to show a better approach before sending him down to AAA, calling up Mauro Gomez, and platooning him and Hinske at 1B while I locate a more suitable rest-of-season solution) and the center field situation. They’re basically locked in at the corner outfield spots, 3rd base, 2nd base, shortstop, and catcher and won’t be seeking an upgrade on the trade market unless someone suffers a devastating injury. All-in-all I think they’ll be OK with the group they have, but I’ll be monitoring Freeman very diligently over the next few weeks. If you want the Braves to upgrade their offense, let this be your starting point.
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Couldn’t agree more. Well done, sir. Bravo.
Well-written. All we apparently want is for these guys to regress to the mean, which would be an improvement. Hope they get started against Arroyo, who is terrible.
I say we trade Jair and Tommy for a pair of good hitting pitchers. Duh.
Nothing was said about replacing the hitting coach. Do you think he has anything to do with the struggling offense?
How about we start with New Hitting coach, switch it up a Bit. Never even heard of Larry Parrish before , But I Know Larry Walker. TP was smarter then this Dude Fredi brought along out Blue. Bring Hubbard back & let TP handle younng Bats. Don Baylor wouldve had all these Guys In Beast Mode. Right now our Offense is Weak as AAA team. No reason Bravos should get handled by Below avg Pitching on the Regular. Apparently it’s no Fluke when Multiple teams can shut us down to 1 or Zero runs in over 10 Games So far. SS or CF/LF would be my Focus. Freeman has done OK but Most Def needs to find his Gap to Gap swing again. He always raked & took his walks in Minors, reminded me of a Poor mans Chipper from mid 90s in Minors. Frank Wren is already gauging & prodding. I’m sure well see a change of sorts within next 2 weeks at this Anemic offenses pace. Braves are missing sparkplug/ leadoff/ or energy Guy to keep team Amped & jacked Up for all 9 Innings. We have to lead MLB in fewest runs for First 5 Innings & Tops In runs for Last 4 innings. Fire Parrish & bring in a Real hitting coach to Challenge these MOFO’s. Gut Check time. Nut check time. Hit the Damn Ball.
I’d like to see Uggly sit until he agrees to move closer to the plate. Anything on the outer third and, well, let’s just accentuate the “out” in “outer”.
WTF happened to Joe Mather? He was knocking the cover off the ball there for awhile, and then disappears. For all Bobby’s faults, he at least played the hot hand. It’s not even Cool Hand Luke right now, it’s Cold Dead Hand Fredi.
If the Braves weren’t so beat up, I would send Freeman to AAA for a few weeks, but they need Hinske in OF.
I would like to see a guy like Cuddyer added, but that would necessitate Fredi’s efficient lineup management, and I have zero confidence in that.
Good analysis and well laid out in terms of what is and what cannot be. In a real sense, the Braves have painted themself into a corner and will have to sink or swim with the current guys on the dance floor.
Oh sure, changes can be made for the sake of change but does it make sense to go all in for a proven MLB talent at the price that would have to be paid to acquire same? Barring a season ending injury to one of the starters, I’m thinking this is a Norman Dale moment: “THIS is your team”.
FF’s zips projection:.272/.333/.442
i was expecting something along a .270/.350/.420 slash line from him with good to great defense. i agree we give him a few more weeks, because he has proven at every level it takes him about 40 or so games to adjust. i’m willing to give him til the 60 or 70 game mark because AAA to MLB is a bigger leap than any of the other levels. if he is still having a rough go at it then, hopefully heyward and nate will be back and healthy, and we can give hinske more time at 1st. other than a new CF (still witholding judgement on Schafer) there’s not alot the bravos can do at this point.
I say drop Freeman to AAA put heinskie on first and look for an outfielder for a trade! I would like to see us go after Andrew from the pirates to fill out centerfield gap and give is one more big bat! Maybe even see a little more Ross behind the plate his bat is hot most of the time or even play him on first some!
@4, agreed. it seems, in media coverage at any rate, including post-game interviews, there is little-to-no discussion of hitting/pitching coaches unless those aspects of a team’s game are either really good or super atrocious.
of course, terry pendleton was railed on for the last several seasons at various times, but right now, “the braves are walking too much” would be an improvement and not a complaint.
re: This wouldn’t be nearly as big of an issue if the rest of the offense were performing,
I am hoping that the rest of offense will start producing, so that Freeman can continue his on-the-job training in the big leagues. He hasn’t been nearly as bad as, eg, Justin Smoak was last season (.218/.307/.271), and Smoak has rebounded with solid numbers this season (.258/.363/.452).
As bad as FG’s management has been thus far, I don’t think anything compares to what I saw last night in Milwaukee at the Brewers/Giants game:
Shaun Marcum pitched a helluva game the first two times through the lineup, then the sixth inning came. He started faltering but got out of the sixth only giving up one run, but he was clearly done, despite his manageable pitch count. The Brewers manager left him in for the 7th, to which Marcum responded by two singles and a walk to load the bases with no out. I was saying to my friend and whomever else cared to listen “this is the third time he’s faced this dude, he’s lost his stuff, and he doesn’t throw hard enough to just blow it by him,” all the while the Brewers bullpen was ready to relieve. The manager left Marcum in to face one more batter, Marcum gave up a grand slam on the first pitch to a fresh rookie, and THEN the manager pulled him.
What an iiiiiiidiot. I don’t think FG has done anything that dumb this season, so let’s count our blessings.
I posted this yesterday, but it seems appropriate for today, the Reds kept pitching Freeman down and in, he kept flailing at those pitches. That’s a big hole, I agree with having patience with him, but if he needs to work on some things a couple of weeks in AAA that maybe the best thing for him long term.
Lets hope the Brewers are out of it by the trade deadline… doesnt look that way though
Watching the game last night they were discussing Prados BA. From what I recall; losses around 180, wins low 300s. Is there any where to find his slash line split for w’s and l’s?
The only thing I would add is a better bench. Outside Mather, Hinske, and Ross (Although I don’t consider him so much as a “bench” player so much as backup catcher because Fredi only uses him in that capacity), I would suggest a better UTL player. One of the huge strengths of the Braves last year was how good their bench was.
While Mather and Hinske have done very well, Hernandez and Conrad aren’t helping as much as one would like to see and it’s not unrealistic to find ugrades. I know we signed Julio Lugo and all our troubles will be far behind us when he gets up with the big club, I’d like to see a guy who could get on base and be a legitimate SB threat in the late innings.
It maybe that FF could use some work back at AAA on the down and in pitch (like dominican said), but I would still give him a couple more weeks up to to try to straighten it out here. He is streaky hitting right now, which is pretty common with a rookie. He strikes me as a hard worker, and I think he can work it out without being sent down.
Ugga(ly) is another matter. If I were an opposing coach, I’d fine any pitchers facing him $500 for every fastball strike they throw him. Throw him a fastball outside the zone (that he’ll most likely hack at) and breakingball away him to death. He has just lost all ability to see the strikezone and pick-up the breaking pitch. My only question is has he seen an eye-doctor? Remember a couple of years ago with big Mc’s problems with breaking pitches? That ended up being a vision related issue.
you’re right about freeman of course, but it’s a shame that the 21 year old is being relied upon so heavily. if heyward and uggla are doing what they are supposed to, freeman can sit in the 8 hole and learn to be a big leaguer.
bj noticed during last night’s broadcast that uggla had moved up on the plate to help reach the outside corner. i though uggla had great ABs last night maybe because of it. i’m looking to him to turn it around soon. i think he’s getting better.
The Braves are not even going to score runs until August or September because that’s when they normally flip that switch for the October pennant race, it’s way too early for all of their offensive criticism in May.
I think FF is fine. He is a rookie and coming into the season, we were expecting him to be the 7 or 8 hitter in the lineup. I’m extremely happy with his D at 1B. Every team can’t have a lineup 1-8 that mashes the ball, unless you’re the yanks. I wouldn’t have an issue though, if Fredi platooned Hinske/FF.
I’m not worried when I say this but the biggest issue is the blown saves. If Kimbrel had blown 2 rather than 4, I don’t think fans would be panicking as they are. The braves would be 2.5 out rather than 4.5.
That said, the offensive problems are obvious – Uggla/Heyward.
@6 – I disagree with your assertion that BC always went with the hot hand. He is notorious for sticking with his guys. Franceour was sent to RF day after day when we had better options on the bench. Even DOB started calling him out during interviews. We had the same issue with McLouth last year until he got hurt.
How about this for a bold move: Mike Napoli.
He would give the Braves a big offensive upgrade at firstbase and give them a third catcher.
There are obvious, significant issues in trading for Napoli, as far as what the Braves would have to give up, the Rangers aren’t likely to part with him easily and whether it be worth it. Napoli’s under contract through next season and theoretically Freeman would be improved and more ready to play in the majors.
But it would be a creative move worth at least exploring.
If any team controlled center fielders become available, it might make sense to trade for one now, considering we will probably have to trade for one anyway after the season ends.
@21
Considering the Rangers just picked him up int the offseason I would be surprised if they moved him at all. Also, napoli has never been a high average guy which is what we really need in the lineup right now.
I like Napoli a lot as a right-handed bench guy. Can spell Freeman at 1st, pinch-hit, or allows Fredi to use Ross.
Would Beltran hold up in CF?
I would trust Beltran about as much as I trusted Melky Cabrera in CF.
I think he’d be just as good as McLouth out there. I’d be really worried about injuries if they made him an every-day CF, though.
CAC, realistically, what do you see Atlanta doing to help out the offense? Any moves at all? And if so, who might they be looking at? I realize the offense is pretty set, but still…
With Teheran off the table, will the Braves trade prospects for a CF this season?
I’m curious as to why you are surprised by Schafer’s defense thus far? I was under the impression that his defense was his greatest tool, and likely the only reason he stuck around so long in 2009, even through the offensive woes/injury.
i was a bit puzzled at this but i heard something about the Braves somewhat actively pursuing Hunter Pence. I’m sure an OF reinforcement will be brought in at some point this season.
kev,
He has the tools to be a + defender in CF, it didn’t translate to useful skills last time he was up with the big club.
Are you basing that statement off of UZR? I know the eye-test has zero credibility on a site like this, but you must have watched him play. He was incredible in the field in his 2009 stint, regardless of what any defensive metric says.
Another option: Trade Lowe to yankees for Brett Gardner or to the Redsox for Jacoby Ellsbury. Shift Shafer to Left field and move Prado to third. Make Chipper retire and become the hitting coach.
CAC: you recently suggested trading for bourjous (laa outfielder); I just looked up his stat line and, other than his right-handedness, I was underwhelmed. What do you see that i don’t? I’m curious as to why you made that recommendation, and which prospect you would suggest as an equitable talent. Delgado?
In my opinion, Bourjos is one of the top defensive outfielders in the game and has shown flashes of being a more than capable hitter. I think he would be hard to get from the Angels because he is so young and valuable defensively.
KO: respectfully, wouldn’t PB then be a microcosm of the braves at the moment…? Meaning, “streaky”? How would he be part of the solution to the problem at hand, low OBP and inconsistency?
I never said he would be part of the solution – I don’t feel that he would be much of an upgrade on the offensive side. As far as defense goes, he would certainly be a big upgrade, but he wouldn’t be worth a top prospect to the Braves while that’s what the Angels would demand. I don’t see a deal working out involving Bourjos.
kev,
Yes I watched and he had no idea what he was doing. Great speed and arm, awful routes and throws. I’m not basing it on any defensive metric, I have no idea what they say about Schafer’s ’09 stint.
Steve,
In the offseason–not now–and for defense. He’s basically Alex Gonzalez offensively with a chance to be better, but he’s even better in the field. Probably a +15/+20 center fielder.
Rocky,
I really hope you’re being facetious.
CAC, KO: ok, thanks. Just curious as to your perspective….
#34) Perfect. Perhaps we should wait until Chipper further injures himself and then seriously move in that direction.
What happens the McClouth when he is healthy again?
People THE YANKEES OR RED SOX AREN’T TRADING A COST-CONTROLLED CENTER FIELDER FOR DEREK FUCKING LOWE.
[...] Hjort, over at Capitol Avenue Club, wrote about where the Braves could look to upgrade on offense. Although Atlanta's offense should eventually come around and be just fine, firstbase is the [...]
@CAC/44
Hey, you never know… they might throw in Curtis Granderson with Brett Gardner for Lowe so the cost is a little more even for both teams. (read with emphasis on the sarcastic overtones)
I don’t know if anybody has looked at the article in 45, but the author suggests Minor, Vizcaino, and Hicks or Diory for Napoli. Even if the Braves flipped Napoli in the offseason, that still seems like an awful lot to give up. Any thoughts on that offer or a more realistic one (if Napoli is even available)?
I did read that article and it does seem like alot to give up. CAC staff mentioned Doumit as a bench option that wouldn’t cost as much. Emergency catcher, switch hitter, and has played some games at 1b.
Yeah, that’s laughable. Napoli is not an every-day player, you’re not giving up two top-100 pitching prospects for him.
I too have been really impressed with Schafer’s defense. He made a great catch last night that I don’t think McLouth would have made once if you gave him a hundred tries.
As far as trades go, I think the Braves should wait until the end of the season to make a major move. I’m starting to think that if Jurrjens keeps looking like Maddux 2.0, then the Braves need to think about resigning him and move one of their big pitching prospects for a cost-controlled player to start freeing up some future money.
If on the other hand he regresses back toward what we were expecting from him, I think the Braves should lean more toward letting him walk, replacing him with Delgado/Teheran, and then they could look for a more expensive option in CF.
First time you’ve been name-dropped on a stock trading blog, Peter?
Also, is anyone else starting to wonder if Fredi Gonzalez reads this blog? For the first part of the season, everyone on here was up in arms about Heyward not batting second, and he eventually relented and started doing so. After that, one of the biggest complaints here was how he always held his closer during tied games and in extra innings, and now it seems like he’s stopped doing that too.
I’m kind of kidding of course, but if he starts pinch hitting with David Ross I’ll be convinced.
Haha, yes indeed, Edward. That I’m aware of at least.