Jonny Freaking Venters
June 10, 2011 at 2:13 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
I can write this article every week and it will be more impressive each time it is constructed. The domination of Jonny Venters is just getting absurd. He allowed a run on April 3, and since then he has allowed only one more run. I am not huge on ERA as it is not a very telling metric in terms of future performance, but a 0.26 ERA 36.2 innings is just ridiculous. I don’t like arbitrary endpoints either, but this is just too cool to look past.
As Jack More of Fangraphs mentioned, he is keeping the ball on the ground at an absolutely insane rate. This, along with his still great strikeout rate (9.31 down from 10.08 last season) and his suddenly impressive control (2.56 BB/9 compared to 4.23 in 2010), makes for a dominant pitcher, which is exactly what he is.
Mariano River said this about Venters, “We’ll check back in four or five years and see where he is.” This is a good point. Relievers are volitile. Expecting Venters to turn into Rivera is not fair to either, but Venters is off to a pretty good start to say the least.
MLB Daily Dish says, “When Jonny Venters pitches on zero days rest, opposing hitters are 1-40 with 16 Ks. Read that again: ONE FOR FORTY.” So if Venters comes in with a day off, you are better off standing up there and looking for girls in the stands than actually attempting to swing.
In terms of Fangraphs WAR, Venters has been equally valuable in just 38.2 innings as Chris Carpenter in 84.2 innings (3.44 FIP), Yovani Gallardo in 86.1 innings (3.58 FIP), and Derek Lowe in 79.2 innings (3.48 FIP).
In terms of Baseball-Reference WAR, Venters ranks sixth in the entire National League at 2.5 wins. That’s the same number as Dan Haren, owner of a 2.41 ERA in 93.1 innings. I get more impressed with every word I write.
He is a legitimate Cy Young candidate at this point in time. He will probably give up more hits, walk more batters, and subsequently allow more runs going forward, but he has been more automatic than any National League reliever I can remember in a very long time. Even with all of those expected increases, he will still be one of the league’s top pitchers. Not just relievers, pitchers.
I gave up on Venters when he failed as a starter. Thankfully, he did not give up on himself. The turn around he has made in his career is that of Hollywood movie script. Actually, it probably does not sound real enough for someone in Hollywood to develop it, that’s how crazy the past few years have been for Jonny.
Even though Mariano is right in his assessment of most relievers, barring injury I see no reason to expect Venters to fade. If he did, I would not be completely surprised, but I certainly do not expect it. Venters’ sinker may never and probably will never match what Rivera’s cutter has done over Mo’s career, but right now there is no better pitch in baseball and not many better pitchers altogether.
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I am amazed out how much sink and dive he can get on a 95MPH pitch, its absurd. Just out of curiosity, do you think it would be more effective if he threw it around 90 with more break? Is that even a possibility? Oh and I completely agree, most dominant reliever since Gagne’s streak a few years back. GO BRAVES.
Last night JJ resumed his impressive run. I’d love to see him start the All-Star game and Venters end it!
Andrew @1 got my idea. Gagne is the last NL guy I remember looking so dominant. He would throw 97 FB, 89 slider, 79 curve, 69 slow curve.
Actually now Venters seems to use 3 pitches (with one semeing ot improve). A conventional 4 seamer with hand side run of about 4 to 6 inches and “apparent rise” of about 1 to 2 inches at 95. A 2 seamer that has about 1 ot 2 inches of glove side run and about 5 inches of sink at 93 to 94 (by FAR the fastest sinker I ever remeber from any lefthander and the only righhander comparable I remember was Schilling with his splitter at about 92 or 93). His slider last year was mostly a “frisbee slider” moving glove side about 8 to 10 inches almost flat. This year, it is seeming more like a “7 / 5 ” tilt and, occasionally, seems a little “8 / 4″. If he can consciously alter the plane from flat to 8/4, then he will become even more dominant.
Then, what if he had a circle change? Hmm.
Lets say that Fredi decides to switch up the roles of Kimbrel and Venters: does it really affect the team’s performance? In other words, are getting outs in the 9th any more important than in the 8th?
Kevin @ 4,
I would rather see him do what he said he was going to do and partially platoon them, with a “when in doubt about who can control this crowd better, go Venters.” In other words, if it is the Phillies and their lefthanded middle of the order is up, then Venters is the man for that, 7th, 8th, or 9th (occasionally O’Flaherty). If it is a righthanded club like the Cubs, then match that section with Kimbrel.
I think this helps Kimbrel more than Venters, but they both will still get plenty of opposite hand hitter at whom to pitch.
4
If you don’t get the out of the 8th you never have the opportunity to save it in the 9th. Sounds pretty simple but thats just my view of it. So in other words i feel as if no difference would be made. I would like Fredi to make the call based on righty/lefty matchups. 3 righties coming up in the 8th with a 1-3 run lead why not pitch Kimbrel and save Venters for the 9th. Just an idea I guess.
@4
I believe that the correct strategy is to match your relief corps to the opposition line up
But of course I’m not Fredi and therefore subject to less ridicule…
Serious question – is JV’s 94-96 sinker (from the left side, no less) the most unhittable pitch in baseball right now?
@6 & @7:
Fredi pretty much said coming out of spring training that he would do this, but as far as I know he still hasn’t.
@Luke M
Yes.
@Luke M
It’s unscientific, but this guy seems to think so
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/9/2215872/best-pitch-in-baseball-mariano-rivera-jonny-venters
Watching Venters pitch has been the best thing for me about this season. Just amazing, and I am constantly harassing my casual-baseball friends to watch him pitch.
I was watching the Cubs-Phils on WGN last night and the Cubs announcers were talking about Sean Marshall’s All-Star potential (which is legitimate). Bob Brenly said “I can’t think of any lefty relievers I’d rather have.” I’m sure he’ll be changing his tune once the Cubbies come to town.
Of course, Brenly also suggested pinch-hitting Cole Hamels for Herndon in the 10th, then sending Wilson Valdez in to pitch the 11th. Yes, the manager of the 2011 World Series champions said this.
@ 12
I heard that too while I was watching the game on MLB.TV. I promptly switched to the Philly crew (ugh). SM is good, but definitely not JV good.
Unfortunately, Fangraphs’ pitch-type values (and pitch f/x?) don’t seem to know the difference between Jonny’s merely good four-seamer and his phenomenal sinker, lumping both together as “fastball.” Even still, that categorical pitch seems to be ranked pretty highly.
Best wishes to Venters. However, I remember Denny McClain’s 31 victory season. and then he disappeared into mediocrity. So just because Venters seems unhittable at the moment, fame and ability seem to be fleeting for so many. Here’s hoping Venters pitches like he’s doing now for many years.
The Fangraphs wPitch-type numbers seem to always have different percentages than pitchfx, so I hardly use it.
@4 & 6 – Kevin and Andrew, it doesn’t matter what we think, it’s what the people that do this for a living think…
“I try not to make it any different, but it’s definitely a little more excitement when you go in to finish the game. I took a deep breath [before the third out] and said, let’s get this out and get out of here.” Jonny V. after the save.
I too agree that using matchups to select your 8th and 9th inning guy is the way to go, but Fredi has no plans on doing this, so why not have the best arm in your bullpen (make that any bullpen) pitch in the highest pressure situations? Jonny has been beyond good, he’s got unhittable pitches, his control has been outstanding (see above), he can have the 2 inning save, he can come in with runners on base… need I go on? I’m not saying Kimbrel sucks, I’m just saying Jonny’s much better. What’s our backup after Jonny takes care of the 8th and Kimbrel blows the lead? Remember that save by the three headed monster of Proctor-Sherrill-Linebrink? I have a warm fuzzy feeling when Jonny’s pitching, knowing the game’s over after we’re past the 8th? Well that’s the warmest, fuzziest feeling you can have.
Ninth innings are not necessarily the highest pressure situations. Sometimes they are, and Kimbrel has appeared in higher leverage situations than Venters this year, but that’s mostly because Fredi refuses to use Venters in anything but the 8th and sometimes 9th rather than in the game’s highest leverage situation.
@18 – Ben, I agree with you, Fredi doesn’t; but even in a game like the first one against the Marlins, where the offense was completely shout down, the 9th inning has- in Jonny’s own words- a little more excitement, and saying that it doesn’t matter is like saying “Braves-Phills games are just games”.
It’s not about his excitement level, it’s about which is the highest leverage point in the game.
Andrew “Just out of curiosity, do you think it would be more effective if he threw it around 90 with more break?”
Did you not read the article? How could a pitch get more effective than Johnny Venter’s 95 mph sinker?
Ok then…
21
Just thought it might be something to mix in every now and then Captain Curtis.
No reason to change anything right now. Slower pitches would mean more contact. Probably weaker contact (hard to imagine) but he is doing well with his command and getting great results on batted balls.
How about a ‘the Braves medical staff sucks’ article? Just saw Martin Prado is on the 15 day, because of a staph infection that the Marlins training staff had noticed.
Mr. .300obp is not batting 2nd today. Better yet, its Mr. .235 himself……
Keith C,
I wrote enough of those articles to last a decade last year.
On a completely unrelated note, Dan Uggla has a two game hitting streak going including an extra base hit.
@25 – They must suck, a staph infeccion is not exactly a pauci-immune crescentic necrotizing glomerulonephritis (which I recently diagnosed btw, I know, showing off a little). A quick exam, swab and culture of the lesion, and voila. The fact they missed that is more scary than sad.
Example 958 of why our manager might not be good at thinking and/or saying things:
(On Martin Prado being out) … “I had no idea until watching him how painful staph was to deal with.”
If by painful, Fredi means life threatening, then yes. It is quite painful.
It’s very nice to have Jonny Venters on one’s fantasy team
@25
I’m glad you decided to show off.
infeccion
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