Pre-trade deadline assessment: needs
June 21, 2011 at 3:00 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
When everyone is healthy, the best Braves team looks like this:
You can flip/flop McLouth and Schafer if you want, but that’s basically the roster.
The biggest weaknesses I see are:
1) Bench. Conrad, Hinske, and Ross have been good, but the Braves lack a right-handed threat off the bench and a competent utility infielder.
2) Right-handed relief. Kimbrel has been very good, Gearrin is a useful ROOGY/GB-specialist, Linebrink isn’t horrible if he’s not being used in high-leverage situations, and Martinez is a fine long-man. However, in a high-leverage situation before the 9th inning (when Kimbrel is under lock and key), the Braves don’t have a great right-handed option to turn to. Eventually they’ll get Medlen back, who is a very good reliever, but he’s actually exhibited a reverse platoon split throughout his career primarily on account of his change-up being (by far) his best pitch. The Braves could really use another FB/SL-type right-handed reliever (or just any RH-reliever that’s very effective against righties). The left side of the bullpen is stacked with O’Flaherty, Venters, and the surprisingly effective Sherrill.
3) Center field. It’s no secret the Braves has struggled to score runs this season, but center field is the only position they could conceivably upgrade. Dan Uggla’s lack of production and Jason Heyward’s injuries have been the biggest reasons why the Braves have struggled to score, but those two players aren’t going anywhere (though, as previously mentioned, acquiring competent reserves for the positions wouldn’t hurt). Apart from 2B and RF, the Braves have gotten above-average offensive production from LF, 3B, C, and only slightly below-average offensive production at SS and 1B (Alex Gonzalez mitigates this with his glove, Freddie Freeman with his cost effectiveness and upside). Center field is the one position that they’ve both gotten an OPS of about 100 points below the league average from and don’t have a long-term solution already installed. Finding a center fielder who can hit is tough, though. It has been suggested that the Braves should consider moving Martin Prado to CF and acquiring a corner outfielder to play every day. I’m not wild about the idea, but if they acquired the right corner outfielder it’d be tough to complain.
Chart of the Braves splits by position:
Of note: The Braves have hit .244/.310/.398 against right-handed pitching but only .222/.297.343 against left-handed pitching. Most of the split has come from three players: Brian McCann (who you’re not going to replace and who has hit lefties well in the past), Nate McLouth, and Dan Uggla. Uggla has always shown a reverse platoon split, but a .359 OPS against LHP is just unacceptable. I know you’re supposed to regress platoon splits and all that, but I’d be seriously thinking about never playing him against LHP again, especially if the Braves are able to locate a reliable right-handed threat off the bench.
At any rate, those are the needs I see: RH-bench bat, utility infielder, RH-reliever, and center fielder; in that order. This team is built to go the distance if everyone stays healthy and plays like we expect them to (get it the fuck together, Uggla), all they really need is a few reliable spare parts to be a complete team.
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CAC,
I’m guessing since you prefaced with “When everyone is healthy…” you don’t believe that Moylan is a better option than Gearrin (or Linebrink) in the ‘pen? I think if he can get back sometime in August he could address the #2 weakness you cited.
“but the Braves lack a right-handed threat off the bench”
4 out of 5 games, the Braves do have a right-handed threat sitting on the bench, David Ross.
The fact that Fredi won’t use him in this role boggles the mind.
Ugh, I keep thinking Uggla is doing better but then I looked up his numbers from the past week…
.154 / .154 / .231 / .385
That’s MAD BAD.
2/
He’s a dumbass. Shouldn’t be boggling anyone’s mind at this point.
well if you’re going to put moylan in the mix, you might as well add medlen, as well. again, this would address RH bullpen needs.
i say go reacquire infante. i’m sure the marlins would listen. that is if wren can’t successfully work out a good deal for an impact CF.
This is interesting when juxtaposed with the last thread– I take it you are assuming that Fredi is not going to use Ross as a pinch hitter? That’s probably a safe assumption at this point, but the fact is we do have a good RH-bench bat on the team already. Acquiring a reasonable third catcher to make Fredi feel better about using Ross might be easier and cheaper than getting a good right handed bench guy.
Also, as long as Prado is healthy later on in the season I don’t really see the need for a utility infielder, as I don’t think Hinske is too bad in left and Prado can fill in for infielders better than a backup could.
I’ve been bouncing around the idea of Jose Reyes. I’ve ruled it out now that the Mets are apparantly asking for three top prospects for him, but it applies to the CF/LF/Prado question. Reyes could have played 1 game/wk at SS, and 6 at LF (assuming he plays a competent LF, which with his speed and arm he should), with Prado subbing in at 3B, 2B, 1B, and CF for 4 or 5 games/wk.
Anyway, the point is that Prado is still a ways off, will need more rest than usual even after he comes back, and can fill in anywhere but SS whenever someone else inevitably gets injured. So it’s not like Prado would be playing several games a week at CF. So it would seem better to acquire a cheaper LF.
I’m guessing since you prefaced with “When everyone is healthy…” you don’t believe that Moylan is a better option than Gearrin (or Linebrink) in the ‘pen?
Honestly I forgot about Moylan, but I don’t think they can *count on* getting anything else from Moylan this year. If he does come back and pitch like he usually does he’s obviously better than Linebrink or Gearrin, but just a ROOGY/GB specialist in the end. Would still want the Braves to acquire a RH reliever.
well if you’re going to put moylan in the mix, you might as well add medlen, as well. again, this would address RH bullpen needs.
That was discussed in the article. Medlen’s CH/reverse platoon splits make him more suited for facing lefties in high-leverage spots than righties.
Julio Lugo just got called up, so I’m guessing the “Braves could use a competent utility infielder” is a fairly indisputable position at this point.
I sort of like the Infante idea but he’s just not hitting at all for the Marlins. .606 OPS.
I think any center field option, even if it’s a leadoff type hitter like Bourn, is the best bet. In that scenario you still gain an RBI bat by pushing Prado back in the lineup (plus you rid it of McLouth & Shafer).
I think CAC tweeted this but it’s going to be hard to find players better than Prado, Uggla, Jones, McCann, Heyward, and Freeman when they’re playing like they’re expected to. I like the idea of Bourn.
Is Julio Lugo a ‘competent utility infielder’? Cause he just called up.
His fielding stats look about average (or slightly below average) across the many infield positions he’s played (though SSS). Hitting is subpar, but that should be expected from a guy just signed as a minor league free agent.
Well, CAC basically repeated my comment, but by about 4 minutes earlier. Please disregard.
Looking over this list:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/06/20/trade.market.hitters/index.html
How about Fukudome? He looks like the only one (except Reyes) with a good OBP. We have plenty of options (McLouth swap?) to eat as much or as little of his salary as we’d like.
The options I like the best: Ludwick/Cuddyer (RH Bench Bat), Adams/Wuertz (RH Reliever), Infante/Keppinger (MI), Bourn/Crisp (CF). It’s really too bad that Mike Adams is under team control next year too – I assume he would be much cheaper otherwise and with Medlen/Moylan/Vizcaino all possibilities for next year it seems like a shame to overpay.
I’ve also been toying around with the Jose Reyes idea. We’ve been lacking speed and a good lead-off hitter for how long now? I go back to Kenny Lofton? I know we would have to give up some prospects, but it would seem that could kick-start our offensive results. Particularly if he could play some left field
Nothing wrong with Ludwick , Bourne, Crisp, or Cuddyer, but the last team this team needs is another low OBP guy, especially ones we have to give up prospects for.
Not a Crisp fan, personally.
Of course, a solid OBP guy would be fantastic, but where are you going to find that? Fukudome is interesting, but he’s LH and can’t play center, so he’s really only a fit if you move Prado to center. Even then, his substantial contract probably means that Chicago would want some decent prospects if they are expected to eat money. He just doesn’t seem good enough (current WAR this season is 0.1) to justify moving Prado and giving something up. As unappetizing as Coco Crisp’s .300 OBP is right now, he’s actually been decent against LH pitching over his career and might not be a bad option to platoon with Schafer or Mclouth
@15,
yeah, but for 3 top prospects? no thanks. i wouldn’t go over 1. but maybe this site has just got me too invested in the prospects.
re Fukudome, i checked his splits, and his OBP runs about 100 points lower against lefties. that’s not a great fit for this team. but i’d still do it for a McLouth swap, with us agreeing to pick up the 2012 buyout. the Cubs only save a bit over $2M with that, so i doubt that’s a good enough deal for them.
Hell yeah Lugo is competent! He’s destroying AAA pitching with a monster .286 OBP!
i get the sense of general pessimism regarding Beltran. but why? is it his knees? the $9M he’s still owed for this year?
his OBP is way better than any other realistic option.
absent Reyes, he looks like the only one that fits.
but if we were gonna trade for a LF, it should be now while Prado is still out. and it doesn’t look like the Mets are interested in selling yet.
The added benefit of picking an OF, whether it be LF or CF, it gives the Braves extra flexibility with Martin Prado. Prado would then provide additional depth in the infield, subbing for either Chipper or Uggla on rest days or as defensive replacements (though not exactly a huge defensive improvement).
Prado would in essence become an ultra-utility player across LF, 2B, and 3B. Not bad considering the propensity for Chipper and members of the Braves outfield are to getting injured.
I like Franklin Gutierrez alot in Center….but he has struggled with the bat since getting healthy. If someone would knock the Giants out of the race…Cody Ross might be an option. Then you have Beltran that could come at a relatively inexpensive price..but you don’t want to give up any real prospects for a half year rental…
I think the best option for the Braves is for Uggla to be a realistic .250/330/475 for the rest of the year and for Heyward to be a realistic .275/380/450 for the rest of the year…and they’ll be fine. McLouth and Schafer can get one base enough to help them win games.
I highly doubt that the Stems will trade Reyes if they think they might be in the think of things, especially when Reyes is playing out of his mind and putting the Stems on his back.
I doubt anyone would mind moving Ross into CF like the guy in the previous thread was talking about, right?
Other than that, I have nothing funny to say.
is it illegal for FW to offer uggla 10K for every oppo hit he gets for the rest of the season
I’m assuming this is the prelude to a “realist options” post. I hope so because that would be a great read.
I just don’t think we will be true WS contenders unless we add one more big piece. We need a long-term fix at CF, LF and SS (assuming Martin plays third when Chipper retires), but I don’t think Chipper will retire after this year, and Sea Bass can stay for next year as well if necessary. This scenario leaves Prado playing CF/LF and us in need of another OF. Parting with some young pitching for Kemp or Ethier would be ideal, and also acquire a RH reliever as stated above. A run at Reyes in the off-season would be great, but as long as Liberty Media owns the team, we’ll likely use cheap washed up veterans to patch our needs. We’ll continue to limp along “in the race” but never really contending.
I’m all in favor of leaving Prado in LF and letting McLouth and Schafer play CF.
I would rather not see any trade unless it’s to bring in a backup CF with some late inning power potential. The team has plenty of talent and I really feel like if Fredi G was competent enough to bat them in the right order, he could get more out of them.
I’ve said here multiple times, I know, but I like Andruw Jones to fill the RH bench role.
You shoulda seen Andruw stroll to first base last night on an infield ground ball with one out. Was the easiest double play of all time considering the second baseman was almost taken out at second.
Dexter Fowler could be interesting as well. The K% is frightening, but he is a switch hitter, capable center fielder, and can take a walk. Colorado seems like they are giving up on him. I guess the problem with guys like Fowler and Crisp (or Michael Bourn) for that matter is that even if you demote Schafer and turn McLouth into a 4th outfielder, you still lack a capable RH bench bat.
Some interesting ideas and opinions on this thread. Personally I would love us to get Reyes’s as I have sid before, but I cannot see it happening mainly for financial reasons. I think we need a left fielder as a priority, the odds are Chipper is going to miss a considerable amount of games even if he doesnt snap and fall to pieces, he needs rest and Prado can fill in then and also when other injuries crop up, Big Damage has been proved to be a great bench impact player, however much we want him to be a good starting player, he never will be. I think we can make do with a combo of Nate and Jordan in center field, at least till the end of the season. If Peter or Kris are able to come back anytime this year they will obviously be a massive boost to the bullpen and I just hope JV stays fit, he is massive to this team. The problem, as many have stated is that what will the braves spend and at what cost financially and in trades? Its not a easy job sorting that and giving up prospects may seem okay as we are so well stocked with pitching but that can change massively in the space of a week with one or two big injuries. Tonight will be a test, I hope Minor gets a win but it needs the offense to show up and score some big runs. Even a 10-15% improvement by the offense will surely make us nailed on for the wild card as the pitching will hold up barring disasters.
If a deal is done to get an outfielder, I wonder if Schafer is going to be involved with it, or if we end up going for a rental and hope for him to improve for next season.
I think Mike Aviles is a good fit for utility infielder. Right handed, can play SS, cheap, and the Royals are down on him right now.
Should have Liberty Media buy Kemp/Ethier from the Dodgers to help them make payroll.
Oh yeah, keep ‘em coming.
Reed Johnson from the Cubs could be a short term option as he has an OK career OBP and could play all 3 OF positions. His main position is CF and his full year salary is $900k. Granted he is 34 but he seems to be an upgrade over McLouth & Schafer.
With KC sitting at the bottom of their division I wonder if Betemit could be a solution for our infield &/or bench problem. Granted his stats are tailing off after a hot start.
Could we get Balfour? It may take a mid-level prospect but will also cost $4m for next year. Kimbrel/Venters/EOF/Balfour would give us 4 good arms in high leverage situations.
Is Rico Carty still available? He would solve the outfield and RH bat situation.
I really like Ross but he could be a decent trade chip, especially in the American League where he could catch and DH. I wouldn’t mind seeing him as part of a deal with Schafer that could land the Braves a starting outfielder that would be an upgrade over Schafer/McLouth. The Braves would need a warm body (warmer than J.C. Boscan) to serve as a backup catcher in return.
Thoughts on brett gardner? I love him and he’d be a great fit. And yankees fans seem to underestimate him due to his lack of power. Fangraphs recently did a piece showing how he had the 12th most WAR since beginning of 2010. What would it take to get him. Maybe dump lowe or mcclouth paired with prospects?
I like Beltran
we need somebody who can add significant talent to our lineup against LHPs. beltran’s .258/.303/.645 slash would fit nicely into the rh power bad void uggla has continuously failed to fill. he’s also hitting .296/.387/.452 against righties. put heyward/prado in center and have mclouth as 4th OF
i want for the braves to add Jeff Baker from the cubs. Can play 2nd or 3rd, and this season is killing the ball against the lefties, good for a .460/.471/.640 split in 50 ABs. His career numbers against lefties are .325/.374/.556 (OPS .930), and he’s got a uzr/150 of 4.7 at 2B. I’d stick him in the lineup at 2B every game against lefties until Uggla picks it up. His salary is nothing (1 year/$1.175M), and he could be a great upgrade as a pinch-hitting option for our bench too.
@CAC
sometimes ago you talked about trading for M.Izturis&Borjous at the end of the season. There’s any chance to make the trade now?
About CF I’d like to swap Mc Louth for Marlon Byrd. I know we have to add something to close the deal. But if it isn’t too much (cash or type B prospect) I’ll do it asap.
what do you the possibilities would be of reaquiring frenchy from the royals? you could always put heyward in center(if he wanted to)and keep prado in left. i also like the mcclouth for kouske, you could alwaysput prado at ss and kouske in left
How about Hunter Pence, i know he’s a RF but he could play left most likely and move Prado to center. Only problem i see with that is most likely houston wants prospects like Teheran. Or possibly Michael Bourne to bring speed and dump Nate Mc. And can we pleaseeee send Uggla to the minors till he finds himself again? Start anyone else but Ugly Uggla, cause it kills me to see him strand runners in scoring position late in the game just because the reliever is a leftie, or against a rightie seeing as he can’t get a hit either way
looks like Hudson could be our right hander off the bench with that homerun the other day. haha
great write up. it seems like we should go for a great player now and in the future. chipper will most likely retire so we need to think at least that far ahead. if Prado slides to third, we need a real hitting of. it is time to trade pitching. we should trade Hanson for Kemp. we cannot keep Hanson with Boras as his agent. Kemp hits right and plays center field. i would not throw in Schafer as we need a lead off hitter and next year Kemp and Schafer both play. I would add Mclouth and pay the salary owed him. the Dodgers are in money trouble and this fits their needs on/off the field. we have enough talent to trade Hanson. if we add one more true hitter and other hitters step up, we could be world champs.
IF, (big word) the current roster guys stay healthy and play up to their mid-high potential, I’m good to go with the current roster.
i get the sense of general pessimism regarding Beltran. but why?
Not from me, I love Beltran. I don’t know if he can play center anymore, but if the Braves could get Beltran for LF and move Prado to CF I wouldn’t complain at all.
However, I think the Yankees are going to end up getting both Beltran and K-Rod for nothing just by taking on their salaries.
is it illegal for FW to offer uggla 10K for every oppo hit he gets for the rest of the season
I don’t know, but why in the fuck do you want your best power hitter trying to hit to the opposite field?
If a deal is done to get an outfielder, I wonder if Schafer is going to be involved with it, or if we end up going for a rental and hope for him to improve for next season.
I could definitely see Schafer being involved in a trade for an OF’er, regardless if it’s a rental or not. (…I don’t think the Braves view Schafer as a legit every-day player…)
Thoughts on brett gardner? I love him and he’d be a great fit.
Me too but the Yankees aren’t trading him.
sometimes ago you talked about trading for M.Izturis&Borjous at the end of the season. There’s any chance to make the trade now?
Maybe, but I think they might want to wait until Trout is ready to deal Bourjos. Also I had Jurrjens going to LAA in that swap, and the Braves probably want to wait until Teheran/Minor/Delgado are a bit more polished before they trade away a SP.
what do you the possibilities would be of reaquiring frenchy from the royals?
Banned.
And can we pleaseeee send Uggla to the minors till he finds himself again?
No because he has more than 5 years of service and can’t be optioned to the minor leagues without his permission.
we cannot keep Hanson with Boras as his agent.
Hanson is under team control through the end of the 2015 season as is, there’s absolutely no need to worry about “keeping him” right now. The Braves already have him long-term.
Anyway we can trade TravisHall and llc for a few baseballs?
one thing to note is that we should trade for quality not a stop gap and you do not get quality if you do not trade quality. we have great pitching and we need a 4/5 place all star hitter. that will only come by trading a cheap prices great player. Kemp for Hanson or Jurrjens is good for both teams.
Except the last thing the Dodgers need to do is trade offense for a starting pitcher.
ok low end, Drew Stubbs from Reds who have starting pitching issues for Minor. Right handed and speed. Reds 14th out of 16 in pitching