Braves 3, Mariners 1
June 28, 2011 at 8:24 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Through 13 major-league starts, Brandon Beachy has a 4.765 K/(BB-IBB+HBP) ratio. He’s struck out 28.3% of the non-IBB batters he’s faced and he’s (BB-IBB+HBP)’d 5.9% of the non-IBB batters he’s faced. Beachy is ~14 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, but if he did qualify his K/9 would be the best in the league.
I see no reason why he can’t continue to pitch with an elite K/BB ratio. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, but he throws it with average velocity and also throws three offspeed pitches, including a swing-and-miss offering to both right-handers and left-handers. All of this to go along with plus plus command and control, excellent pitchability, and off-the-charts makeup.
The only real knock on Beachy is he’s a fly ball pitcher, but so what? If he keeps striking out over four times as many as the batters he faces, I certainly don’t care.
When I’m “labeling” pitchers, I consider the best 10-15 or so pitchers in the game–the unquestionably elite workhorses–to be “aces”, the next 15-20 to be #1 starters, the next 30 to be #2 starters, the next 30 #3, etc. The Braves don’t have an ace, but Beachy has pitched like a #1 starter so far. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that continues.
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CAC,
A lot of national analysts (and one, Keith Law, to a strong extent) see to be overly discounting Beachy. Yes, there aren’t many innings of track record to go on, and yes, it is a little hard to see how he gets quite so many strikeouts when he is seeing hitters in some case the third time already, but he keeps getting it done.
I think, looking forward, that your description of him is about his ceiling, but his floor is at least that of a contending team’s #3 (which is probably technically by the division into numbericals of 30 as you have done, a # 2).
Same numbering system you used, how do you have JJ, Hanson, Hudson, and Lowe as of this point in each career. I will go with 2, 1, 2, and 4 (and with JJ and Hudson, the reason I am reluctant to put in the top 30 is that they are low strikeout guys and have peripherals that say that they aren’t quite that good). Then, as of today, Minor a 4 and Teheran a 5 (with a chance on next call up to show 3 or 4).
I remember last year when we had some injuries and someone said we should give Beachy a look. My original thought: “Who the hell is Beachy?”
This guy has come out of nowhere and has been nothing short of outstanding this season. He looked decent when they brought him last September, but now he looks comfortable out there and is just dominating. I tip my cap to the scout that found this guy playing in some college summer league a few years ago.
That works for me.
I think most analysts just haven’t seen Beachy pitch since he added the slider. That’s been his best off-speed pitch and a huge reason why he’s having so much success in the big leagues.
Would you say Beachy’s success is more a testament to the Braves’ scouting or their player development? They certainly struck gold with him.
He is much improved over that start in Philly last fall. He was good then, but now he is among the best in baseball. His slider has deceiving late break, his fastball continues to oddly decieve hitters. My only concern is, can he keep these hitters off balance once they have seen him for a couple years. I mean, he starts to labor when batters face him for the 3rd/4th time. Anyone else see this pattern with his starts??
Last year I was looking at the starters numbers at AA Mississippi before we went out to the park to see Teheran. Like most people, I hadn’t heard anything about Beachy. His numbers jumped off the page. We dropped everything and went to see him that night. He’s under appreciated for sure, but he won’t stay that way forever.
I was thrilled when the Braves selected Beachy (from my alma mater IWU) to the opening-day roster this year. He’s been nothing short of phenominal when compared to what we’ve expected of him.
Post-game quote: “I’m wasting too many pitches. I would like to get deeper into games,” Beachy said. “I really need to get through seven, get into the eighth inning. That’s just something I need to be able to do. I need to be more efficient.”
I’m glad he recognizes that we’d like to get 7+ innings out of his starts and so far he’s been unable to do much past the sixth.
@CAC
How many innings do the organization limit Beachy to this year? 180-190?
Would you say Beachy’s success is more a testament to the Braves’ scouting or their player development?
Player development. It was purely dumb luck that they found him.
I mean, he starts to labor when batters face him for the 3rd/4th time. Anyone else see this pattern with his starts??
That’s universally true.
How many innings do the organization limit Beachy to this year? 180-190?
He pitched 134 and 1/3 last year, so probably around 165-175.
He’s pitched 61 and 1/3 and he’ll start ~15 more times in the regular season, so he should be good to go for the postseason if he’s healthy. The injury really may have been a blessing in disguise.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but Beachy seemed to be throwing harder last night than usual. He usually sits 90-91 and tops out around 93, but last night he was consistently hitting 93 and topped out at 95. May just be the cool air or something of that nature, but it was encouraging nonetheless.
After winning the game and only throwing one bad pitch, Beachy’s reaction to the game: “Little upset with myself.”
As much as it sucked losing Beachy for a month, I think it will help him and the Braves come September/October. He hasn’t been a starter very long and was on track to set career highs in innings and starts this year. Now he’s fresh and should have more in the tank at the end of the season.
It’s too bad that I’m terrified of going to the ballpark to see Beachy in person anymore. I’ve only seen him twice, but both times he was pretty awful. The first time was when he gave up about 5 runs to Florida, the second was when he gave up a 470 foot bomb to Ryan Howard then strained his oblique at the plate… I’m afraid if I see him again he’ll get hit by a line drive or something.
Beachy’s success, due to its apparent sustainability, is the best news of the season so far for the Braves, in my opinion
It’s pretty cool to have one rookie with 9 Ks in 6 innings and another with 3 Ks in one inning. Not to mention a third rookie that hit a 430 ft home-run.
I guess that success was what Fredi was talking about when he said, “we have 4-5 rookies, maybe more!”
Is it just me, or does it seem like Keith Law isn’t a fan of anyone that wasn’t a 1st round pick or a top 5 prospect in their organization? I’m not surprised at all that he doesn’t think much of Beachy.
Have to say, I was at least as skeptical as Law of Beachy prior to this year, to the point I didn’t think he was worth drafting in a scoresheet league.
The Braves are in the fortunate position of being able to limit Beachy’s innings without taking a huge hit. In September, the Braves can alternate Beachy and Minor or go with a 6-man rotation. And I bet if everybody’s healthy, Teheran gets moved to the bullpen in August to prepare for September. I don’t think the Braves need to trade for a RH reliever this year, if Teheran can fill that role.
Of course, come playoff time, the rotation is probably JJ, Hanson, Hudson, Lowe, no matter how well Beachy or how poorly Lowe has pitched.
A bit OT, but considering this is the thread for last night’s game..I am very excited with Freeman’s development and adjustments to MLB pitching. First base woes may finally be solved for the next 5+ years.
Fredi sort of goes against the grain, puts Heyward in the leadoff spot, but counteracts it by putting Lugo in the number two spot.
On a prospect note, Salcedo went 5-5 last night with 2 doubles and 2 HR. He’s still playing terrible in the field, but bat is coming around. He’s got an OPS of .876 in June.
Loved the way Beachy went after Ichiro with a runner on third. Pure brass.
Have to say, I was at least as skeptical as Law of Beachy prior to this year
Before he added the slider there just wasn’t that much there. That’s been the key for him.
I don’t think the Braves need to trade for a RH reliever this year, if Teheran can fill that role.
Eh, that’s not great for his development.
I thought that bedard looked good last night except for two pitches. It wasn’t our Lineups fault for once (except for heyward in the leadoff WTF). I was listening to the radio and they said after next year Atl will have at least 50 mil coming off the books and the only ones we have to pay are JJ if we keep him. I’m wondering what big name free agent we should pursue. SS and left field are two holes that will need someone
CAC,
The best hashtag I’ve seen on Twitter in a long time?
#beachyporn
It’s nice to see a Braves pitcher (or pitchers) that can get strikeouts. What worries me about this staff is that, as good as they have been, the lack of power pitching makes me wonder if they can sustain the results, especially having to pitch with so little margin of error. I’m confident that the Philles rotation (at least Halladay, Lee, and Hamels) can maintain their performance, but I worry about an outing like JJ had the other night, with 4 BB and 2k. He got away with it against a bad team. Without Hanson in the rotation–and I am skeptical that “shoulder tendenitis” is not serious–much of the rotation (Hudson, Lowe, and JJ) seems to rely on defense. No doubt the Braves have a tremendous amount of pitching depth, but, for the most part, they seem to be 2s and 3s, which is ok if the team could hit a little. Am I being too pessimistic?
I should say that the guys in the minors project to be more than 2s.
so if the season ended now (or plays out and the final numbers resemble the ones now) what are the chances Beachy takes the 4 spot over Lowe? Also, what are the chances Medlen steals one of those spots once he comes back, or is he guaranteed to be in the bullpen throughout the playoffs?
I was listening to the radio and they said after next year Atl will have at least 50 mil coming off the books and the only ones we have to pay are JJ if we keep him
That’s flat-out wrong and fucking ridiculous that a radio station would say something like that. The only players Atlanta has coming off the books this offseason are Proctor ($600 K), Linebrink ($2 mil), Sherrill ($1.2 mil), Gonzalez ($2.5 mil), McLouth ($6.5 mil, but they owe him a $1.25 million buyout next year), and Kawakami ($6.67 mil). Uggla gets a $3 million raise next year, McCann gets a $2 million raise, O’Flaherty, Moylan (if they don’t non-tender him), Jurrjens, Prado, and Medlen all get arbitration raises. If they keep all those players that’s ~$85 million for 20 players: no SS, CF, and 3 holes on the bench.
Atlanta basically has to trade Jurrjens or Lowe this offseason.
so if the season ended now (or plays out and the final numbers resemble the ones now) what are the chances Beachy takes the 4 spot over Lowe?
What does that mean?
@ Manpitt
Obviously a lot can and will change in between now and then, but here’s some guys that will be FA’s after 2012:
SS
Eric Aybar
Jason Bartlett $5.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Stephen Drew $10MM mutual option with a $1.35MM buyout
Ryan Theriot
3B
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Placido Polanco $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Mark Reynolds $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Scott Rolen
David Wright $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Kevin Youkilis $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
OF
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Lee (might be more of a 1B at that point)
Luke Scott
Delmon Young
Michael Bourn
Marlon Byrd
Curtis Granderson $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Matt Kemp
Angel Pagan
BJ Upton
Shane Victorino
Andre Ethier
Torii Hunter
Carlos Quentin
At that point, the Braves will no longer have Lowe’s $15 and Chipper will might be retired. Braves will have a lot of money opened up. But a lot can change. Braves could go out and get a CF this year. It will be interesting to see what happens this offseason with the SS position.
“Uggla gets a $3 million raise next year”
He deserves it.
You’re article suggests Beachy is putting up some impressive numbers, and there is reason to believe this isn’t just a hot streak. Lowe isn’t doing too hot, so in the playoffs what are the chances Beachy takes that 4th starting spot over Lowe?
after *next* season… (Lowe+Jones+Hudson)
Uggla is going to turn it around. He just needs to stop trying to fill Troy Glaus shoes.
@29/ljones: There’s no possible way anyone can predict how the season will go. We all thought Lowe was Lowe last year up until he pitched spectacularly in September and got himself the 1st start in the playoffs.
I enjoyed this laughable line from Kimbrel last night:
1.Justin Smoak strikes out swinging, catcher Brian McCann to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
2.Dustin Ackley called out on strikes.
3.Miguel Olivo strikes out swinging, catcher Brian McCann to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
2 of the three strikeouts that he got were because he was effectively wild and made the hitters swing at stuff McCann couldn’t glove.
My thought on Beachy is that he’s throwing a few too many close pitches. In the first 3 innings, there were quite a few places where the hitters were just fouling off ball after ball. The radio guys said that the ump needed a new bag of balls three or four times in those innings. His command is spectacular, but I am unsure if it would kill him to throw something in the dirt when he’s up 0-2 or 1-2.
I’m kind of glad that those big contracts come off after 2012 rather than 2011. If Gonzalez can be convinced to re-up on a short-term contract, Wren will have another year to monitor the development of Pastornicky, Simmons, and Lipka in order to determine if pursuing Hardy, Drew, or another veteran SS is necessary. I’m hopeful that Wren will be able to leverage Jurrjen’s stellar year into a trade for a legitimate CF, but even if he is forced to pursue a stopgap solution for 2012, an extra year should provide the definitive answer on Schafer’s future. If the Braves have designs on adding a major FA bat, 2012 (Hamilton/Kemp/Ethier) is much more promising than 2011.
@ CAC 25
Isn’t it a little harsh to say the Braves will have NO centerfielder? I mean Schafer has provided more value than McLouth so far (based on fWAR). I know he’s not anything special, but if the Braves could get by with McLouth then they can get by with Schafer.
I basically see him as a CF version of Alex Gonzalez– he’s cheap, he’s good with the glove, and when he does something at the plate it’s just a bonus. His biggest problem is that he gets identified as a leadoff guy rather than a 7th or 9th guy.
CAC – JJ Hoover’s last two appearances for Mississippi have come in relief. Have the Braves moved him to the bullpen, and if so is he the guy they’re hoping to fill the right-handed reliever role in the second half?
If so, I find the move curious, to say the least. Hoover has been solid in AA this season; plus, Medlen is still coming back. I guess I’m just wondering if you or anyone knows what’s up with Hoover.
Glad the Bravos pulled this one out tonight. My only question is why didn’t the braves start ross at catcher and mac at DH? That way you have a lot better lineup, especially considering you were facing a lefty and you get stronger defensively. Also, in my opinion, Julio Lugo should never play again. I have a better chance of getting a basehit that isn’t a swinging bunt than he does. And under no circumstance, do we ever need to see him hitting the number two hole again. That was just pure stupidity. Or comedy, depending on how you look at it.
Isn’t it a little harsh to say the Braves will have NO centerfielder? I mean Schafer has provided more value than McLouth so far (based on fWAR)
I really don’t think you can count on Schafer to give you anything going forward. He was horrible in AAA and has serious make-up issues.
JJ Hoover’s last two appearances for Mississippi have come in relief. Have the Braves moved him to the bullpen, and if so is he the guy they’re hoping to fill the right-handed reliever role in the second half?
I think that’s probably just a logistics thing.
Beachy is said in SIERA with a min of 55ip.
Greinke 1.98 (60ip)
Beachy 2.59 (56ip)
Halladay 2.68 (127ip)
Hamels 2.76 (112ip)
Kershaw 2.81 (116ip)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1010996
*second
@36/Fredisbiggestfan: I figured he just pulled names out of a hat for that lineup. From what I hear, Fredi plans to put Mac and Chipper in the DH spot this series so I would say that Ross will play in 1 or 2 of these games.
Every baseball fan thinking Boston is going to win the AL is totally understandable, especially when you cannot even bet against them most of the time,but every baseball fan thinking Philadelphia is going to win the NL has zero understanding of the Braves, especially when the Braves are totally breathing down their necks for the NL East division and the season series and the tie-breaker would totally benefit the Braves if the Braves take the season series from the Phillies and are tied for for NL East title after 162 games.Not to mention the Braves are trailing the Phillies by just 4 and a half and are 5-4 against these Phillies thus far. GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
J.J. Hardy is a free agent next year and I hope like hell the Braves make a run at him. He’s athletic with some pop..Great gap power…good OBP…Perfect guy to hit in the 6 or 7 hole. I also think he is beginning to turn the corner as a big leaguer and getting even more patient at the plate and having better AB’s…
Any chance the Braves make a push for BJ Upton if the Rays decide to sell? Or is he going to command too much in terms of players the Braves would have to give up for the production?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/06/sherman-on-yankees-padres-clippard.html
Apparently Jaret Wright and Javy Vasquez scared them away.
BN4E FTW!
CAC, just fyi, manpitt #20 said all that money was coming off the books “after next year” = after 2012. I don’t think you can get to $50 million unless you count Chipper and McCann, and you shouldn’t count either. The Braves might not need Hudson at $9M, but he’s probably still a bargain at that price, so we probably shouldn’t count him, either. That leaves Lowe.
But who knows what the Braves roster will look like by the end of 2012? I bet some of our pitching depth will be traded away by then.
How many major league pitchers can say that they struck out Ichiro twice in one game? Not many, I’m guessing.
Great performance by Beachy.
Better comp for Beachy:
A. A right-handed Cliff Lee
B. Greg Maddux with a 92-94 heater
These numbers pretty much are in line with what I expected, but I found them interesting nonetheless. fWAR and wRC+ for this season through today for our best starting lineup. No idea if the formatting can be maintained on here, but you get the idea.
Source: FanGraphs
POS. PLAYER fWAR NL RANK ML RANK wRC+ NL RANK ML RANK
C Brian McCann 3.0 1 1 148 1 2
1B Freddie Freeman 0.3 11 22 115 10 18
2B Dan Uggla -0.6 11 22 55 11 22
SS Alex Gonzalez 1.1 7 15 78 10 18
3B Chipper Jones 0.8 5 10 108 4 7
LF Martin Prado 1.7 4 7 106 6 9
CF Nate McLouth 0.3 11* 22* 96 10* 18*
RF Jason Heyward 0.5 10* 23* 103 T10* T20*
*Neither McLouth or Heyward have played enough games for FanGraphs to rank them among “league leaders,” but I plugged them in based on their current stats.
I think BN4E’s post was all one sentence. Only he could say all of that without taking a breath.
CAC, just fyi, manpitt #20 said all that money was coming off the books “after next year” = after 2012.
Ah, I see.
In that case, the free agents I’m targeting are:
1) An ace, my top two picks being Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke.
2) Josh Hamilton.