Uggla Trending Up
July 8, 2011 at 10:31 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
The difficulties Dan Uggla has had at the plate in 2011 are well documented. The struggling all-offense second basemen has provided very little offense, aside from the occasional long ball. His performance so far has left a sour taste in most mouths, especially considering the fact that the offense as a whole has under-performed. However, things are starting to change.
On June 7, I wrote an article titled “Dan Uggla Needs To Strikeout More.” Since that date, he has hit for a .762 OPS with 30 strikeouts, 12 walks, and 12 extra base hits. His slash line of .213/.299/.468 is still poor, but there is production to be found in that line. His power has improved, as half of his 14 homers have come since June 8. He’s added five doubles as well, and the isoOBP of .086 is right in line with his carer mark of .085.
The important thing is that Uggla has gotten back to what made him the $62 million second basemen that he is. He is hitting home runs, walking, and striking out. At his best, he is a three true outcome guy. That’s what he is doing, and that’s at least a minor reason why the Braves’ are 19-8 over that span.
The walk rate since June 8 is 10.3% compared to 10.6% for his career. The strikeout rate is 25.9% compared to 25.7% for his career. The home run per plate appearance rate is 6% compared to 4.5% for his career. This is the Uggla the Braves’ were looking for, and if his BABIP during this stretch were to have been his career .291 rather than .226, this post would have been written a few weeks ago.
Using even more arbitrary endpoints, over the past four series Uggla is hitting .225/.354/.550. That’s all you can ask for out of your best power hitter. Uggla’s season ending numbers will be much worse than anticipated before the season began, but the offense may have landed the biggest acquisition in the league as Uggla reverts back to his career norms.
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Funny, though, how that average just….won’t….budge.
Well, it has a little. Finally over .180. I’m thinking .210-.215 at the end of the season.
Anyone think any higher?
I’m rooting for Uggla, glad he’s a hard worker. There’s nothing worse than a guy struggling who doesn’t hustle or work hard.
On a related note, I hear Melky Cabrera’s having a good year, who wants the Braves to make a run at him? Kidding of course.
first
Hope the banhammer comes down on you for ignoring the Commenting Policy, @1.
I’ll take this post to the bank, though. Uggla needs to do something while Schafer and Sea Bass are being run out first and second. I’m glad that he is, because he could, and should, hit 2nd instead of Sea Bass who is better utilized in the 7th spot.
I’ve noticed that he’s closed his stance slightly and is keeping his front shoulder in longer, as opposed to flying open prematurely.
Freeman and Heyward are now doing the same thing…all three are staying on the ball, keeping their heads behind the ball, and doing a better job of hitting it where it’s pitched, not so intent on pulling everything.
I look for all three to have some fun at the bandbox in Philly this weekend.
Your report on Uggla is encouraging and bodes well for the Braves in the second half.
As Uggla regresses, he could spur the Braves to a serious run for the division title and beyond.
It’s good to see Uggla starting to string together a few good games. Hopefully it keeps up through the next few months. I’ll be happy if he gets to.230/.325/.600 by the end of August.
The entire Braves offense has started to push toward what we expected of them this year as well. I love what I saw in the Rockies series and hope it continues against the Phucking Phillies.
@Jon…What did I do wrong with my comment? I read the policy and I’m not sure I broke it…if I did, it was unintentional.
@2 What did I do? And I post on here all the time, so I hope one foul-up won’t bring out the banhammer (which I thought was a clever name).
And I’ve been noticing Uggla hitting more, but after the Astros series when I was all aboard the bandwagon, so I’ve been a little slow to make the same mistake.
Freeman and Uggla are in full-on BEASTMODE.
@ MattNAustin
first
Leave that lame shit to the ajc and similar blogs.
Uggla and Heyward both seemed to be doing a better job of seeing the ball of their bats this week. Hopefully, it will continue with the Philly series. First place at the all-star break would be nice, but it would be even nicer to make the Phillies feel swindled for a week. Upset their mojo.
ninth
Tell me why Nate is not batting leadoff. After yesterday’s game he now owns a .352 OBP and walk to K ratio of 36/38. I would love to have him on base for the sluggers in the middle of the lineup who are streaking right now rather than the P/Shafer/Gonzo.
@4
I believe you meant 500, but I think 450 would be more likely
He’s so comfortable in the 8th spot. The 8th spot is a wonderfully soft blanket, akin to a snuggie, even, and Nate takes to it like a duck to water. He considers himself draped in socially acceptable velvet when hitting in the 8-hole.
Tell me why Nate is not batting leadoff. After yesterday’s game he now owns a .352 OBP and walk to K ratio of 36/38. I would love to have him on base for the sluggers in the middle of the lineup who are streaking right now rather than the P/Shafer/Gonzo.
If on-base percentage is so important, then why don’t they put it on the scoreboard?
@15
lol
@16
Yeah no kidding, why don’t they just have McCann lead off if it’s so important
Andrew,
Much of that OBP and BB:K is because he’s getting pitched around to get to pitchers down in the 8th spot.
Batting 8th he has a .449 OBP, .900 OPS, and 2:1 BB:K ratio for the season. (91 AB’s)
Batting 2nd he is .307 OBP, .631 OPS, and 1:3 BB:K ratio. (68 AB’s)
He’s still better than Gonzo, but its not like he’s the perfect 1 or 2 hitter, either.
@16
That great Fredi quote should always be referenced in response to anyone that comes on here and tries to defend Fredi.
It’s like Freud used to say, “If you can’t even get to first base, you sure as hell ain’t gonna score.”
@20
It’s a Francoeur quote, I don’t think Fredi has said something that stupid yet
I think Uggla is finally feeling comfortable. It also helps that Freeman, McCann and Chipper are crushing, too, allowing Uggla to focus on himself and not trying so hard for the team. When everyone is struggling he tries too hard, when others are hitting he relaxes and hits.
I hope they keep it going tonight, it would be nice to get Beachy a W against the Phillies.
Nate’s scored significantly more runs batting 8th than he has higher up the lineup. Even if his stats are being inflated because he’s being pitched around, I think it’s certainly helping the team. I bet those numbers would put him in the top 8th spot batters in the NL, which I’ll gladly take instead of being one of the worst in the 2 spot.
Nate’s OBP is somewhat inflated by the fact he is hitting 8th and being pitched around. Nate has good enough plate discipline to take his walk when he is being pitched around, and that in and of itself is somewhat valuable in order to turn the lineup over. I don’t care what the “The Book” says about lineup protection because common sense rules here. If Bonds were followed in the lineup by the pitcher he would be walked far more often than if he were followed by Pujols. We are obviously not talking about Bonds and Pujols here, but the point still stands to a lesser extent in the case of Nate and the Braves.
Uggla looks 10x better at the plate. He hit a couple long HRs on easy swings, and unlike previously, he didn’t go right back to swinging out of his shoes trying to hit the ball 500 feet rather than 450 feet. Ron Gant had a good point while he was announcing the past couple of days: just because you are looking to go back up the middle doesn’t mean you will always go back up the middle. That hitting approach keeps you on the ball longer, but when you get a pitch in you still automatically turn on it. Uggla has been progressively putting together better and better ABs, even if they don’t result in getting on base.
Freeman was the first guy to start this approach to go on his offensive tear, and it looks like other guys like Uggla, Heyward, and Schafer started to catch on lately.
@22
Well, shame on me. Was I so wrong to assume though?
@23
Of course not, it’s probably coming soon when a reporter mentions Schafer’s obp
@19: You are looking at a small sample size of his splits for just this season. There is no reason to believe that players bat any differently in any particular spot. Players have a true talent level, period. If you look at his career splits, his OBP in the leadoff spot is the same as his OBP overall, which is exactly what you’d expect.
Also, I believe that The Book found that batting before the pitcher doesn’t material impact on your OBP, but I don’t have it in front of me to double check.
Nate has been pitched around several times this season with runners on base and the pitcher on deck. His true talent may not change based on where he bats in the lineup, but pitchers’ approaches do change.
I’m not sure what the Book says, but it seems fairly obvious to me that Nate has received at least a few extra walks this year due to batting 8th.
Neighth McLout.
McLouth is a better hitter than Gonzalez. Optimization is putting better hitters higher than less good hitters. The problem early in the year was Heyward is better than McLouth, why bat Heyward so low in favor of the inferior hitter? The same issue applies here, why have the superior hitter so low in favor of the inferior hitter.
McLouth is a better hitter and baserunner than Gonzalez, and better hitter than Schafer. While the overall impact is ultimately minimal, it really is incorrect McLouth usage. Kind of akin to saying it’s ok to have used Proctor against Pujols in a 3-1 game with a guy on second because Poctor got him out.
I wasn’t saying Nate is the best leadoff hitter the world has ever seen. I was simply suggesting a swap between him and Alex. When Prado comes back it will be a whole different story. Oh, I think we should dump Alex for Mr. Walt Weiss, he’s not too old right?
Not to mention, McLouth is also a better baserunner than Schafer.
@32
I think Blauser was at the game the other day, what about him?
@ALL in favor of lineup changes
SECOND MOST WINS IN MAJORS. Keep doing what we are doing or change??? HMMMMMM…
Usually, alternating LH/RH is a tad more important than actual order of the lineup based on optimization. All of the Braves are worse vs. LHP compared to RHP for their careers though, so that issue isn’t crazily important. It is good to avoid late-inning LOOGYs for a ton of consecutive batters though.
The bigger issue is McLouth or Heyward batting so low with Schafer batting first.
@33
If I want to steal a base, I go with Jordan. If I want go 1st to third/ 2nd to home, I go with Jordan. If I want to score on a shallow sac fly, I go with Jordan. Plus i don’t remember him making any bonehead plays on the basepaths, so how is Nate the better baserunner?
Well if you want to play that game, the biggest problem is everyone not McCann hitting like a bag off asses.
Also if Prado is back after the All Star Game, that helps the LH/RH issue with Gonzalez.
McLouth is an infinitely better base runner.
His 86:15 SB:CS ratio is one of the best in the league. In comparison, in the minor leagues, Schafer has an 84:49 ratio, which is pretty awful.
There is having speed, and then there is being a good base runner. Schafer dominates in the former, hence one of the reasons why he is the better defender; however, he struggles mightily in the latter.
Nate is 3 out of 5 this year as a basestealer = Not even a threat.
McLouth may get some extra BBs in the 8 hole, but that position in the order also requires him to be a little more aggressive when runners are on base and the pitcher on deck. 8 hole can be a tricky place to hit
@35/37: Todd is spot on. Jordan is a lot faster than Nate but runs into substantially more outs on the bases. Outs are very, very valuable. Extra bases aren’t as valuable as you might expect. If you can get extra bases without causing a lot of outs, that makes you an excellent baserunner.
@38: Sample size fail. (Also, baserunning is broader than basestealing).
For what it’s worth, Fangraphs rates Nate as the best Braves baserunner this year with their new ultimate baserunning stat.
Andrew/38,
In McLouth’s defense, at least one of those times he was caught stealing occurred because he did his little pop up slide number and was tagged out by Jose Reyes (if I’m not mistaken) who held his glove on his leg as he popped up off the base. So while he was out, he did get into the bag safely only to be tagged out after he completed his slide. Hopefully that taught him to slide and stay on the damn bag until time is called.
Nate is the better/smarter base runner. Schafer is just fast. There is a difference. Schafer SB:CS ratio should be much better than it is considering his speed. I don’t expect Schafer to get any better in this department either, he’s been around long enough.
@35
How about yesterday when he got picked off second and the blue missed the call and called him safe. Schafer needs to go back to AAA and work on a more consistent. He has flashes of being a good leadoff guy, but what this team needs most is consistency at the top of the lineup. Schafer hasn’t been that.
There was also that “Sunday School” session with Nate on stealing bases. That was actually one of my favorites – he seems like a good teacher as well as being a good baserunner himself.
And while we’re on the subject of base-stealing, speed, etc. – Mike Trout was called up by the Angels and will play CF tonight because Bourjos is injured. I look forward to watching his debut after the Phils game.
I am very excited to watch Trout’s debut as well, should be very exciting. I only wish it could have been in a Braves uni..
Definitely. That would solve many an OF problem…
Sorry about diverging here, but I ran across something interesting investigating why Freeman’s WAR was so far below Espinosa’s WAR despite the tear he’s on. It appears that Freddie’s dWAR is -0.6 according to BaseballReference.com and they cite using a total zone calculation developed by Sean Smith of Baseballprojection.com.
My question is in reading how he developed total zone, how does it factor in the outs a first baseman creates for other fielders by being able to “scoop out” bad throws? Are there metrics that separate out that out for first basemen? It would seem to me that some of Alex Gonzalez’s exceptional dWAR rating would have to be attributable to Freeman being able to finalize the out.
Thoughts?
Tonight’s lineup against the Phils:
1. Jordan Schafer (L) CF
2. Alex Gonzalez (R) SS
3. Brian McCann (L) C
4. Chipper Jones (S) 3B
5. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
6. Dan Uggla (R) 2B
7. Jason Heyward (L) RF
8. Nate McLouth (L) LF
9. Brandon Beachy (R) P
For the record Mac twice had more stolen bases in a season than Francoeur when Frenchy was in Atlanta. Speed is overrated in base stealing. Not to mention speed is better served at the bottom of the lineup anyways where the singles hitters are supposed to live. Finally, Jimmy Rollins bobs for apples in the toilet… and likes it.