Midseason Top-25 Prospects
July 12, 2011 at 11:39 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Minor Leagues, Prospects
Peter and I put together our own lists and I put the results together to come up with the final list. Peter has seen more of these players in person than I have, so when a tie was reached I sided with his first-hand knowledge as most of my analysis is based off of statistics and scouting reports. Below is Peter’s list, my list, and the aggregate list with details on each prospect.
Peter’s List:
1. Julio Teheran
2. Randall Delgado
3. Edward Salcedo
4. Arodys Vizcaino
5. Sean Gilmartin
6. Tyler Pastornicky
7. Paul Clemens
8. J.J. Hoover
9. Brett Oberholtzer
10. Christian Bethancourt
11. Andrelton Simmons
12. Adam Milligan
13. Carlos Perez
14. Todd Cunningham
15. Zeke Spruill
16. Nick Ahmed
17. Mycal Jones
18. Matt Lipka
19. Joseph Terdoslavich
20. Barrett Kleinknecht
21. Juan Abreu
22. Cory Gearrin
23. Seth Moranda
24. David Filak
25. Kyle Kubitza
Ben’s List:
1. Julio Teheran
2. Randall Delgado
3. Arodys Vizcaino
4. Edward Salcedo
5. Tyler Pastornicky
6. J.J. Hoover
7. Sean Gilmartin
8. Christian Bethancourt
9. Adam Milligan
10. Brett Oberholtzer
11. Nick Ahmed
12. Zeke Spruill
13. Carlos Perez
14. Paul Clemens
15. Matt Lipka
16. Andrelton Simmons
17. Phillip Gosselin
18. Todd Cunningham
19. Billy Bullock
20. Mycal Jones
21. Joseph Terdoslavich
22. Juan Abreu
23. Abraham Espinosa
24. Kyle Kubitza
25. Cody Martin
Aggregate
1. Julio Teheran – 6”2, 175lb RH SP, Current Level: AAA
Teheran was the World Team starter in the futures game and one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He should be in the rotation consistently some time next season, although he has already made two MLB starts.
2. Randall Delgado – 6”3, 200lb RH SP, Current Level: AA
Delgado has struck out 90 batters in 97.2 innings at double-A this year and made his MLB debut against the Rangers earlier this season. He should be ready to stick in the rotation some time next year, but may be used more as a sixth starter due to the glutton of MLB level starters.
3. Edward Salcedo – 6”3, 195lb RH 3B, Current Level: Low-A
In Salcedo’s first full season in the states he is proving why he was such a big signing for the Braves. Salcedo has the best bat in the system and while he has struggled defensively, does not profile as a below average defender. We will not see Salcedo for a few seasons, but he should be the team’s top prospect when he debuts.
4. Arodys Vizcaino – 6”0, 190lb RH SP/RP, Current Level: AA
Vizcaino started the year at high-A Lynchburg but pitched well enough to earn a promotion after nine starts. His exceptional two pitches may force him to the back-end of a bullpen, which he could be ready for this year. He still has a chance to stay in the rotation.
5. Tyler Pastornicky – 5”11, 170lb RH SS, 21yo, Current Level: AA
Pastornicky was acquired in the Yunel Escobar trade with Toronto and has improved offensively since joining the Braves. His stolen base rate has slightly declined, but his power numbers and hit tool have improved. He may be ready to start at shortstop some time next season.
6. Sean Gilmartin – 6”2, 195lb LH SP, 21yo, Current Level: Unsigned
Gilmartin was the first round draft pick for the Braves this year, and features a deadly changeup with an average fastball. As a college arm, Gilmartin should be able to advance rather quickly, though likely not as fast as Mike Minor has.
7. J.J. Hoover – 6”3, 215lb RH SP/RP, 23yo, Current Level: AA
Hoover began the year at double-A Mississippi and was promoted to Gwinnett after a handful of starts. He struggled in his two starts at triple-A, one of which I was in attendance for, and was demoted back to double-A. His past eight appearances have been out of the bullpen, where some believe he may end up, but this may just be to give him a bit of a breather.
8. Christian Bethancourt - 6”2, 190lb, RH C, 19yo, Current Level: High-A
Bethancourt got off to an inauspicious start at the plate but eventually tore up Rome and earned himself a promotion to high-A Lynchburg. He has struggled at Lynchburg since, but his catch and throw skills behind the plate compare with some of the best in all of baseball.
9. Brett Oberholtzer – 6”2, 230lb LH SP, 22yo, Current Level: AA
It has been more of the same for Oberholtzer, who continues to develop and perform in that second tier of Braves starting pitching prospects. The K/BB ratio of 5.48 from last season was bound to drop as he moved to double-A, but he has remained a steady starting pitcher as he has posted a 3.41 FIP for Mississippi.
10. Paul Clemens – 6”4, 180lb RH SP, 23yo, Current Level: AA
This is Clemens’ first season as solely a starting pitcher and he has progressed as expected thus far. His walk and strikeout rates are nearly identical to last season’s through 17 starts. Clemens was my 24th ranked prospect before the season and was unranked by Peter, so his performance this season has been one of the more delightful surprised in the entire system.
11. Adam Milligan – 6”3, 210lb LF/RF, 23yo, Current Level: High-A
Milligan’s biggest problem has always been health. In just six more games he will have matched his highest amount of total games played in any given season. He has the most power in the system, compiling 32 extra base hits so far, but you would like to see the walk total of 16 increase.
12. Carlos Perez – 6”2, 195lb LH SP, 19yo, Current Level: Low-A
It has not been a banner season for the 19-year-old Dominican left-hander, as he has posted a 5.13 ERA through his first 17 starts. However, his K/BB has improved to a 2.18 and this is just his first full season worth of starts. He has very good stuff, and his 8.0 K/9 is still impressive.
13. Andrelton Simmons – 6”2, 170lb RH SS, 21yo, Current Level: High-A
After skipping low-A completely, Simmons bat has actually performed better than expected this season. He still has little power and his stolen base rate has been awful this year (11 SB, 10 CS), but he is known more for his defensive skills and arm than anything. Having fully committed to shortstop rather than pitcher, Simmons’ defense has been shaky at times this season as he has compiled 17 errors.
14. Nick Ahmed – 6”3, 205lb RH SS, 21yo, Current Level: Rookie League
Ahmed is the second 2011 draftee to appear on our list. He is a very athletic player with a solid arm and speed that help make up for his so-so range at the position. He is a big shortstop, sort of in the Derek Jeter-type mold where he relies on bat control and fields the balls hit at him very well. Not saying he will ever be that type of player, but that’s the kind of guy you are looking at rather than a 6”3 power hitter.
15. Zeke Spruill – 6”4, 184lb RH SP, 21yo, Current Level: High-A
It feels as though Spruill has been in the system forever, but he is still just 21-years-old and has developed nicely so far. He has displayed extremely good control at Lynchburg, walking just 18 batters in 116.1 innings and has rebounded nicely from a poor 2010 season. He may get moved up to double-A if a spot in the rotation opens up.
16. Todd Cunningham – 6”0, 200lb SH OF, 22yo, Current Level: High-A
There is no one tool that specifically stands out about Cunningham, but he has shown a respectable ability to get on base. His power is lackluster, as he only has 12 extra base hits this season, but he has his uses as a switch-hitting outfielder who can play all three positions.
17. Matt Lipka – 6”1, 188lb RH SS/2B/CF, 19yo, Current Level: Low-A
Lipka has probably been the biggest disappointment in the system this year. Prior to the start of the season he was eighth on my rankings and ninth on Peter’s, and his drop has obviously been significant. Peter stated he was not very impressed when he saw him in person at spring training this year, and his slash line of .230/.288/.269 has been atrocious. He also has 16 stolen bases and has been caught nine times, which is not quite the pace you are hoping for with such a speedy player. Hopefully, Lipka is able to get it going and revamp his status.
18. Mycal Jones – 5”10, 170lb, RH CF, 24yo, Current Level: AA
It’s looking more and more like Jones is destined to be a utility player at the major league level. The braves have moved him to center field this year and he has performed decently despite injuries. His slash line of .212/.343/.324 is not impressive on its face, but a .343 OBP combined with a .112 ISO is respectable from an up-the-middle player.
19. Joseph Terdoslavich – 6”1, 200lb SH 1B, 22yo, Current Level: High-A
“The Terd” has had quite the season so far, racking up 44 extra base hits in just 83 games played. His 30 doubles are quite impressive as are his 13 home runs. A .333 OBP is lower than his career marks, but his power has helped his OPS remain at a very nice .842 this year.
20. Juan Abreu – 6”0, 180lb, RH RP, 26yo, Current Level: AAA
Abreu is kicking the door on a MLB call-up as we speak. With Scott Proctor struggling and Fredi Gonzalez seemingly losing faith Jair Asencio, Abreu may be the next in line if Proctor is designated for assignment. Abreu is sporting a 2.14 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 42 innings. The walk rate of 4.7 is a bit alarming, but you take the good with the bad.
21. Phillip Gosselin – 6”1, 190lb, RH 3B, 22yo, Current Level: High-A
.289/.346/.438 is certainly respectable from a second basemen. He has not provided much over-the-fence power, hitting just six career home runs in 615 plate appearances in professional baseball, but his 23 doubles and five triples this year are the main reason for his quality offensive line.
22. Billy Bullock – 6”6, 225lb RH RP, 23yo, Current Level: AA
Bullock was acquired for Scott Diamond at the close of spring training, as Diamond was not set to make the Twins’ roster and was going to be sent back to Atlanta if no trade was made. Bullock’s ERA of 4.89 looks bad, but his 49 strikeouts in 35 innings certainly does not. Much like Abreu, his walk rate of 4.6 per nine is far from good, but when a pitcher is striking out 12.6 per nine you can justify pitching him in high leverage situations, which is the type of reliever he profiles to be.
23. Barrett Kleinknecht – 6”0, 200lb RH IF, Current Level: High-A
Another Lynchburg position player, Kleinknecht has struggled in 174 plate appearances this season. He plays all over the field, making appearances at every infield position in just 46 games played, but he has primarily played third with Lynchburg and first in his stint with Rome before his promotion.
24. Kyle Kubitza – 6”3, 190lb LH 3B, 20yo, Current Level: Rookie League
Kubitza is the third and final 2011 draftee to make our list. The 20-year-old third base prospect has power, patience, and tools to be a solid defensive third basemen. He struggled with errors at the hot corner in college, but has skills to perform well defensively and is a solid athlete.
25. Abraham Espinosa/Seth Moranda.
Espinosa – 6”1, 175lb RH SP/RP, 18yo, Current League: Dominican
Abraham is in his second season in the Dominican League and has started five of the eight games he has appeared in. His strikeouts have not been exceptional, but he has walked just 18 batters in 101.2 innings over the past two seasons.
Moranda – 6”2, 180lb RH SS, 18yo, Current League: Rookie League
Moranda was slated to attend Fresno State but the Braves wound up signing him. He was a two-way player in high school and is a solid athlete. He was also the first high school player taken by the Braves, who grabbed him from Buchanan High School in Clovis, California.
Loading ...
Not really on-topic, but for those of you that play MLB 11 The Show, I recently traded Randall Delgado, Kenshin Kawakami and Nate McClouth to the Indians for Grady Sizemore, Tony Sipp and some other reliever I can’t remember…those same Indians then traded Randall Delgado to the Brew crew for Shaun Marcum. Randall is now the 5th starter for the Brewers and kicking ass…damn it, at least the Braves have a lead-off hitter finally…ya know…in video-game world.
Gilmartin hasn’t signed. Supposedly he’s “eager” to do so, but sometimes these things fall through.
Fair to say that the Braves 2nd tier (Hoover/Oberholtzer/Clemens) would be considered 1st tier in most MLB systems?
re: 2, I see now you list him as “unsigned.” Strikes me as a bit odd to include a guy who’s not in the Braves’ system yet on a list of Braves top prospect, but it’s your list.
Gilmartin hasn’t signed. Supposedly he’s “eager” to do so, but sometimes these things fall through.
He is going to sign, so we included him.
Ben, could you expand a bit on your comment that Salcedo “does not profile as a below average defender”?
Thanks for the two excellent posts back-to-back. Great insight and analysis.
Ben, could you expand a bit on your comment that Salcedo “does not profile as a below average defender”?
I’ll answer that. He has the arm/speed/hands/reflexes to be at least an average defender at 3rd.
@Hizouse
At age 19 Derek Jeter had 56 errors at low-A.
At age 19 Chipper jones had 56 errors at low-A.
Not to say that this is the norm, but amount of errors does not necessarily mean poor defender. There are lots of reasons to believe Salcedo will be able to handle himself quite nicely at third base.
Thanks for the list. Its pretty awesome list for some of us that aren’t able to follow as much as you guys.
I would like the braves to sign alex gonzalez to a one yr extension hoping that pastornicky is ready to take over sometime in 2012 and be our full time starting by 2013.
That’s not a terrible option. Just because Gonzalez is on the team does not mean he has to be the full-time starter. I would be fine if they used Gonzalez as a caddy for Pastornicky in case he struggles.
Is Minor not considered a prospect? He’s not currently with the big club is he?
Just thought I’d throw that out there…
Question from the peanut gallery – what do lists like this one quantify exactly? Chances of making it to the big leagues? Of being impact players in the bigs? Or is it more a summation of the players who are showing the most promise in the organization at any give time and projecting those results ahead?
It’s a combination of upside and likelihood of making the team and being productive.
Ben: thanks, and thanks for all the work that you guys put into stuff like this.
Also, MattNAustin, Minor is a rookie this season, so he is no longer a prospect. Beachy, Freeman, and Kimbrel have also all advanced to rookie status which is generally the rule of thumb when ranking prospects.
I should reiterate. It isn’t as though he’s “not a prospect,” he is just not going to be put on Baseball America or Keith Law’s rankings next winter if he does not pitch another inning, so we leave players who exhaust their rookie status off the lists.
Thanks Ben, good stuff.
Andrelton Simmons is fast becoming famous in the Carolina League for his tendency to hit into double plays in the clutch.
He’s currently second in the entire Carolina league in GIDP and one of only a handful of players in double figures.
Kevin Orris not invited to partake in prospect roundup? Other than that observation, both lists look strong.
He’s just busy right now.
Thanks for the great All Star break posts—it’s like Christmas.
If Pastornicky is possibly our future SS, would they consider converting Simmons to CF, or it it too soon/better to have more depth?
How “teachable” is basestealing at his level (assuming he remains a predominant singles hitter, he will presumably need that skill)?
What is the story on Jose Costanza? I will admit I don’t follow much outside of the MLB roster, but he has been hitting ~.320 for a season and a half now and has CF speed.
GIDP in the clutch is a repeatable skill, not just bad luck.
Feels like our 1-10 is weaker but our 11-20 is stronger than last year. Not bad with the massive graduations. Can we put Vizcaino in the pen for all future Phil’s series? I would have done it last week rather than throw that inning in the Futures game.
Great List guys.
I do have an unrelated question. Why does this years all star game feature a DH? I don’t remember a DH in St. Louis. If the game “counts” then shouldn’t it follow the rules of the host ball park?
Thanks, Ben and Peter.
I am particularly happy to see you guys like Pastornicky that much. Glancing at his stats, though, are you worried that his walks are down? I see his strikeouts are also down, so maybe he’s just making more contact when he swings.
I would take Delgado A-gon and Bentacourt to the Reds for Stubbs Paul Janish and Homer Bailey.
@25
They adopted a rule last year that says DH in all All-Star games. I like it, personally.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6760322 (Insider required)
Keith Law says that Teheran’s curveball is fringy. Just wondering what your take on Teheran is if is curveball doesn’t improve CAC. I would assume he’s still a top 1-2 starter. Could his curveball keep him from being an ace and do you see it improving???
@29
Lots of scouts or bloggers who do scouting expect him to be a No. 1 starter rather than an ace.
I like what Pastornicky could do for this team as a good “traditional” leadoff-type hitter. I’m hoping his increase in BA and decrease in SBs arent fluky. If not, I like the idea of resigning Alex Gonzalez to a 1-yr contract in case Pastornicky flubs and making Pastornicky the starter.
Correction: I’m hoping his decrease in SBs IS fluky.
Good job as usual. I saw Sean Gilmartin’s last college start and the line on that game is misleading. Ump was systematically biased by team regarding the zone. All the season ticket holders were going nuts. What impressed me most was watching him strike out the next batter (or two?) after giving up an early solo HR. I can’t wait to see this guy develop through the system.
Juan Rivera and Mike Cameron have both now been had for essentially nothing by the Dodgers and Marlins respectively. I hope this is a sign that Wren is pursuing something bigger.
Bring up Gartrell NOW!!!! He just won the AAA home run derby!! The guy is a slugger and he is right handed and an OF!! We don’t need to trade anyone!!
(sarcasm anyone?)
Any reports on Danville first baseman William Beckwith or 3B Brandon Drury? They were both late round 2010 draft picks. Thanks.
@Eric
I dont see what the harm would be in calling him up. All they would have to do is DFA Proctor (I still visit braves.com daily in hopes that this good news has become a reality) and add him to the 40-man roster. Do you honestly think McLouth is more of an asset than this guy has the potential to be?
Just a thought.
Quick q…everybody seems to laude Viz’s great FB/curve combo, but concern remains over his lack of a 3rd pitch. I assume the third pitch is a change-up. How far away is the CU? For him to be a viable starter, does it need to become average, or even better? I’m trying to figure out what his chances are of starting. Thanks in advance.
I really don’t want to make a big Teixeira-type splash this year. If you go through the fWAR of what we gave up, it is pretty damn depressing. Yes, many of those players were ‘blocked’ at the time, but ex-post, we got worked on the trade.
The playoffs are a crap-shoot. In baseball the statically “best” team wins it all about 29% of the time. Hell, last year we were a decimated team and lost by the narrowest margins to the eventual champs. Consistently throughout the 90s we had the ‘best’ team in the playoffs and didn’t cash it in. Point is, the key is getting in, and we’ve got a damn good shot at doing that with our roster.
We can fix our bullpen ‘problems’ internally (keep in mind we still have the very best bullpen in baseball this year, if not in the last 20 years). Yes, it may be sub-optimal to put Minor, Delgado, Terehan, or Vizcaino in the bullpen for a period, but probably a lot cheaper to delay their progress for half a season than to give them up entirely. Combine that with a wait-and-see with Moylan and Medlen, and that is entirely pragmatic.
With have a great RH bench bat in Ross. Surely it is cheaper to have a sitdown with Fredi (or more realistically trade for a cheap utility man that can play C, freeing Freddi to actually use Ross) than to get a RH bat in trade.
Conrad should get some starting time in a low-leverage series (WAS and COL immediately after the ASG) to see if his defense is any better this year. He was perfectly acceptable against LHP last year.
(A 4th OF with a big platoon advantage against LHP is the one thing we do not have internally).
At the very least I hope FW has these ‘cheap’ fallback options in mind when he is dealing so that he doesn’t think we need to make a huge splash.
Chatted with keith law today and he mentioned that he still sees Vizcaino as a starter and most scouts he talks to agree. Your thoughts??
What about Stefan Gartrell. I just saw he won the AAA HR derby, and has been putting up some nice numbers for Gwinnett, especially his power numbers. I know he is 27 and has seemingly been a career minor leaguer, but is he still not good enough to make the top 25 prospects list? or even get thought about when the Braves think about bringing up someone? He is a right handed batter who can presumably play all three outfield positions. Any thoughts on him?
Chatted with keith law today and he mentioned that he still sees Vizcaino as a starter and most scouts he talks to agree. Your thoughts??
I don’t agree and most scouts I talk to don’t either.
“I don’t agree and most scouts I talk to don’t either.”
I guess you guys hang out in different circles…. On a unrelated topic, i just watched the trailer for the new moneyball about the GM for the A’s and his tactics using Sabermetrics and was wondering what your thoughts on it? (If you can believe Tyler Durden as a GM)
*movie
here’s the link
http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2011/Moneyball/trailer.php
I’m pretty excited for it. It’s got a good cast and crew, so it can be an entertaining movie. When I first heard they were making a movie about it, I was skeptical because I was unsure how they could possibly make it into a movie. After seeing the trailer, I have confidence that it can be pretty good. Even if it is not that great, as long as it turns some to sabermetrics I will be happy that it was made.
CAC/Ben, Our farm system was ranked #5th by Keith Law last year and based on Freeman, Minor, Beachy, Kimbrel all moving up do you see our system as weaker when compared to the same time last year?
The idea of using Vizcaino out of our bullpen in case we couldn’t find the right deal before this year’s deadline seems very logical.
Will Teheran develop into a better pitcher than Hanson? It seems most scouts rate Teheran as a #1 starter with potential to be an ace but how would Hanson rank? #1 or Ace?
based on Freeman, Minor, Beachy, Kimbrel all moving up do you see our system as weaker when compared to the same time last year?
Yes, significantly.
Will Teheran develop into a better pitcher than Hanson? It seems most scouts rate Teheran as a #1 starter with potential to be an ace but how would Hanson rank? #1 or Ace?
Well, Teheran obviously isn’t a lock to even become a #1 starter. I’d say his floor is #3 starter/elite closer and ceiling is true ace. Tommy Hanson is more of a #1 than a true ace, but he’s one step away from being an ace.
Hanson is top 30 in xFIP and fWAR from 2009-2011 (11th in xFIP in 2011). I think that makes you a #1 starter in a meaningful sense of the term.