Jason Heyward’s Rough Season
July 15, 2011 at 2:20 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Dave Golebiewski of RotoGraphs put together a very sold post on Jason Heyward’s unfortunate sophomore season. Detailing the problems he has had with injuries, ground ball rates, his batting average on those ground balls, and decreased plate discipline, Golebiewski basically stated what most of us have been watching and feeling since mid-April. Something is not quite right, whether it be injury or poor luck in certain areas.
Heyward’s ISO sits at a near identical .178 compared to .179 last year, and his walk and strikeout rates are not terribly different than his rookie season’s as well — an 11.1 BB% is still impressive. The big difference between 2010 Heyward and 2011 Heyward is his BABIP, which sat at .335 last year and is .256 this year. As Golebiewski points out, much of that is due to his .188 average on ground balls. Last year, Heyward’s average on ground balls was .272 — good for 44th highest in the majors. His .188 mark this year is the 162nd best. Obviously there has been a considerable drop off, and this is the reason why his OBP sits at .315 rather than ~.370.
So is it bad luck, or is he just hitting the ball dead into the ground more often? It is probably a bit of both. He has substituted some line drives for a grounders and fly balls. Heyward seems to have a downward swing that will probably always keep his ground ball rate above 50%, which is not something you would want out of a 6″5, 250lb hitter. But, that’s his swing and that is likely who he will be going forward.
However, he has managed hit more fly balls this year than last and his GB/FB rate has improved, even if it is a slight improvement. The infield fly rate that Golebiewski points out has to be an outlier. There is simply on way that Heyward’s swing is fashioned to a 22.6% infield fly rate. Combine that extremely odd number with his 17.0% HR/FB ratio — which was expected to decrease from last season but has actually increased — and you have roughly 40% of Heyward’s fly balls ending up either over the fence or still in the infield. That’s a pretty big difference from 25% last year. The infield fly rate is likely to change, and could have certainly been the result of playing through an injured shoulder, but the ground balls seem like they are here to stay.
ZiPS has Heyward hitting .267/.375/.462 the rest of the way, which equates to a .370 wOBA with identical second home run and steal totals of nine home runs and five respectively. This seems pretty much exactly what I would project as well, as his career BABIP of .311 looks to be more the norm than the .335 that he had last season. Heyward’s season ending numbers will not look as pretty as hoped before the season, but if his batted ball profile normalizes and he is able to stay healthy he should be able to produce well above average numbers for the rest of the year.
Loading ...
I would be interested to see what Jason’s batting average is against off-speed/breaking pitches as opposed to fastballs. Specifically when those off-speed and breaking pitches are on the inner third of the plate. Just as an idea based on what I saw from him last year and the struggles this year, it seems the scouting report for Heyward is nothing hard inside.
If anybody has a place I could find that information, or a source where I could do the math on it myself, I’d be interested in the results.
His win shares per pitch value are on Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF#pitchvalues
Not exactly what you were looking for, and I suppose not 100% reliably, but decent to just look at and get a decent perspective. Seems relatively accurate to me.
It is depressing that his wFB/C has dropped that much…Good info
It is entirely reasonable for Chipper, Prado, Heyward, Freeman and Uggla to each put up wRC+ of 110 for the second half. That basically where Chipper (108) and Prado (106) are at now, a bit of a regression for Freeman (123), a minor jump for Heyward (102), and a big jump for Uggla (70), though consistent with his last few weeks of production.
We don’t need any of these guys to press. Just be consistent and we’re going to score runs.
Tonight’s lineup is one of the closest to ‘optimal’ that we’ve seen in a while (I’d flip Jordan and Nate):
Schafer CF
Prado 3B
Heyward RF
Freeman 1B
Uggla 2B
Ross C
McLouth LF
Gonzalez SS
Hudson RH
Seeing Alex hit eighth makes my blood pressure sink to normal levels
What idiot would put a slugger like Gonzalez 8th in the order? He has more home runs than Schafer, McLouth, or Ross. I say move him up to 2nd to maximize opportunities. It’s also good to have a middle infielder hit 2nd because they are notoriously good bunters.
@ 6 – No.
interesting stuff.
NRPS – how is a lineup without mccann and chipper anything close to ‘optimal’? unless optimal doesn’t mean as close to perfect as possible.
Lets go bravos!
It’s also good to have a middle infielder hit 2nd because they are notoriously good bunters.
Yeah. The SS or the 2B bats second, an outfielder bats leadoff. /@fakecitogaston’d
Thank goodness Martin is back. This is actually the lineup I would probably construct (flipping McLouth and Schafer of course). Also, I miss watching him shower everyone with dirt!
Dirt and infections usually go together….
I’m not sure how to interpret all those numbers but the question is what is the prognosis for Heyward going forward. He was sold, much as Andruw Jones was, as the next great player–and, of course, not just by the Braves. Just going by observation (and I don’t see that many Braves games), he seems to roll over almost everything; there is probably some bad luck involved but a lot of weak ground balls to the right side. I wouldn’t be all that concerned as long as he hits the ball hard but a lot have been weak.
@10: Fine fine…
@8/hobart: Optimal given the players in the lineup. With Chipper on the shelf and Mac obviously getting a day off, this is pretty close to optimal (esp. if McLouth and Schafer were switched).
OK, so I know this is nitpicky–call me impossible to please or whatever–but I really don’t understand what the fuck Fredi is thinking.
Alex Gonzalez has been batting 2nd routinely in Prado’s absence. Now that Prado is back, he moves *Nate McLouth* up in the order to bat Alex 8th. I guess he regards the #2 spot as the 6th or 7th most important spot in the line-up, when in reality it’s the first.
Another thing: it’s really dumb to bat a hacker 8th if you have another, patient option available. When Nate gets pitched around in the #8 spot, at least he walks and the pitcher doesn’t lead off the next inning. When Alex Gonzalez gets pitched around in the #8 spot he’s going to continue to swing like the hacker he is and strike out or make weak contact.
Fredi Gonzalez does not get it.
In that line-up I’d honestly keep Nate 8th (unless he’s moved to leadoff) just due to the fact that he has been a *lot* more patient in that spot than I think Gonzalez ever will.
Alex will likely still strike out even when he gets nothing in the strike zone due to the pitcher being up next.
Why sit Mac immediately after a two day break?
@15: Yeah, no question he doesn’t get it. Nate batting 8th was at least like a 2nd lead-off man, not unlike batting the pitcher 8th, which The Book found to be mathematically correct, but haven’t such a minimal positive impact over a season that it wasn’t that important.
I put Alex 7th and Jordan 8th. Alex has the occasional power to get to 2nd, but not the consistency to justify a higher batting position. That’s valuable in front of an occasional singles hitter (Jordan).
@14 alright fair enough.
my two thoughts on schafer though:
1. I have confidence in him as a lead off man. I like him.
2. batting him 8th could lower his perceived stock around MLB. FGonz may be thinking about his trade value (in a package with some pitching) for a legit bat in the outfield??
I’ll bet on Hudson hitting at least once tonight.
@17/Kevin: And against RHP too… Fortunately, Ross is very, very good. Ross’ wRC+ of 142 is 2nd only to McCann at 145. That is really incredible for a backup catcher, but unfortunately Fredi has no clue how to use him.
Ross has *2* PH at bats this year (!!!!). That’s well below such sluggers as Hernandez (15), Mather (13), Hicks (9), Ramirez (8), and Young (8). Our 2nd best hitter this season, who can actually hit LHP, rotting on the bench game after game. This makes my head hurt.
Can anyone remember the last time we needed a 3rd catcher in a game?
You are right, NEPS, Ross is a damn good hitter for a backup catcher. I just think Mac’s presence is a big boost for the lineup, and should take priority over Fredi’s bright idea that Ross should now be Hudson’s “personal catcher”. I know that Mac needs regular rest, but after two days off?
Totally agree though that Ross is ridiculously underused in pinch hitting situations. It’s really painful to watch Hicks, Mather, and Young get regular at bats while he sits on the bench.
@15, CAC, asking what Fredi is thinking is to assume that he’s thinking, right? I don’t believe he does think.
But seriously, we should bat AGon 1st so that he can get hurry up and whiff on 3 pitches. That way the opposing pitcher won’t have time to get warmed up before he face the good hitters. He’ll also have a false sense of confidence, thinking “boy this is gonna be wicked easy”. It’s the old rope-a-dope rewarmed.
Even more seriously, let’s make him the mop-up reliever so he can spare our bullpen arms when we’re getting thumped. Who knows, he may be a better RH RP than Proctor. He has a pretty good arm out at short.
@19
I’d never thought about it that way, ie, a player’s position in the batting disorder influences his “perceived stock”. It sounds ludicrous, but there are actually a lot of stupid people in baseball. I mean, we traded for Alex Gonzalez, Rick Ankiel, and Kyle Farnsworth last year.
I’d actually be interested to know how much better this team would be if Heyward was batting like he is supposed to be the best hitter on the team.
Would he have a 2-3 WAR? It’d make sense to believe that the Braves would be within 2 games of the Phillies, if they didn’t completely just overtake them.
Don’t know if you could get people started on both Uggla and Heyward though.
I really have no problem watching mac have the day off against a junk throwing veteran like Livan..
I think it is completely ludicrous for a manager to field a team with a guy’s trade value in mind, a guy doing that will not manage for long.
My new favorite term, “batting disorder”. lol
@hobart
What exactly has Schafer done for you to think he deserves to hit leadoff? It is the height of stupidity to bat Schafer leadoff ever.
@Tucker, 27
You have to bat your speediest player lead off so he can steal bases. That way he’s on second base when your sluggers hit homeruns behind him. Geez, it’s like u guys never watched baseball.
Is it bad that i hope for the Braves pitcher to get a hit just so it will clear the leadoff hitter and Prado can lead off the next inning?
@29 – you beat me to it! That’s exactly what I was hoping for…
@29
It’s really bad when you hope Nate McLouth will get a hit so that it will clear Gonzalez and Hudson can lead off the next inning.
So far in this game, Dan Uggla is technically only 1/4 (2B, 2 RBI). However, if you watched his ABs, you can tell he is locked in and confident. They have all been absolute bullets. His 2B in the 1st inning where he waited on a 68mph slow curve and rifled it down the 3rd base line… that was a thing of beauty. I really feel he has turned the corner. If he has… its gonna be a fun summer.
Oh yeah, and I think Tim Hudson is a better hitter than Alex Gonzalez, who should hit no higher than 10th or 11th in the order…
Correction: Dan Uggla did hit a ridiculously high pop up that technically wasnt a “bullet”…
@33
10th, eh? That’s been the problem all along. AGon should’ve been playing softball in a church league. I once showed up after the game had started and got to bat 11th. Went a tidy 1-3 with a walk for a blistering .500 OBP. Don’t mean to brag…just saying.
The one night you can use Proctor, and we run out Linebrink.
@35/NRPS
At least we’re not using Venters. And it’s nice to see AGon back in the 8 slot.
@21/Kevin
When did Ross become Hudson’s “personal catcher”? Maybe I just haven’t been paying attention closely enough.
@36: He’s caught him the last 5 out of 6 times I think they said? Don’t think there was an official announcement but looks like there is a pattern now.
Would rather see Sea Bass utilized correctly in the 6th or 7th spot so that McLouth can do what he’s been doing in the 8th spot.
It’s not like Alex is going to be dropped any further, but separating black holes is what you want to do with a lineup, not put them all together. Sea Bass, pitcher, Schafer is honestly no better than pitcher, Schafer, Sea Bass. Think about it.
@ 6 – Martin is a natural 2nd baseman, so according to your logic, he must also be a notoriously good bunter. And he is a much better hitter than Gonzales, who has more home runs than those guys cause he’s played twice as many games as each of them
@ 15 – Freddi is not a dumb as you think. He put nate 7th so that there weren’t 3 right handed hitters in a row. That means later in games it causes match-up problems for opposing bullpens. If you look, often times the braves will alternate R-L most (or sometimes all) of the way down the order.
I enjoyed the post. To my eye, Heyward has been much less patient at times this year and appears to be pressing; although he still walks a good amount, he goes up swinging at the first pitch more often than I would like.
Something that is also not going to show up in your statistics but which has been apparent is that opposing teams and pitchers have been pitching Jason inside far more often this year than last year, particularly early last year. Jason will need to find some way to adjust to that if he wants to regain his form from the first half of last season.
First of all, some of the comments on here are obviously from people who have no idea what’s going on.
As to why Mac is sitting, Ross has been catching Hudson for most of the year, as per Hudsons request. Ross was his catcher in college at Auburn, and they work well together.
Second why is everyone wanting to move Nate and Jordan around? They have both been better in the spots Fredi put them in, so you don’t just change it to change it. Alex however does need to be in the 6th or 7th spot, or traded to the Mets!!!
So everyone give Fredi a break, he’s doing pretty freakin well for someone who just replaced the best manager of all time.
The thing is, Heyward’s walk rate has fallen rather significantly from last year to this year. While his 11.1% walk rate “is still impressive,” it’s obviously a lot less impressive than the 14.6% walk rate he posted last year — which was tied with Jose Bautista for 5th-best in baseball.
Essentially, Jason’s walk rate has declined from truly elite to solidly above-average. To me, that’s the single key reason for his decline this year, and the single stat most worth watching to track his progress at the plate this year.
I don’t have any stats on this; and I don’t exactly know why Heyward has been so bad. But it would be more bearable if his twitter wasn’t constant with the ‘#np Drake (insert Drake song here’ and the injuries and the days off once or twice a week. It’s really tiring.
Yeah Jason hits the ball on the ground way too much. He seems to ground out to the second baseman 3 times a game. He also doesn’t seem to be working the counts the way he did last year. I love how some people on the AJC blogs want to trade him. Because giving up on a 21 year old makes a lot of sense.
My guess is that Heyward is still hurt. Heyward seems like he has 2 modes: Healthy Beast Mode, and Injured Suck Mode. So, if he is sucking he must be hurt.
Jason’s presence in the line up is definitely welcome and needed, I agree his patience while not terrible is still lacking. You hate to tell a good hitter to not be so aggressive, but in Heyward’s case I believe he would fare better to not be so anxious to swing at the first pitch every at bat. I also believe part of his issue related to health, I don’t believe he’s 100%, but even at 85% he’s better than 95% of the outfielders in the league!
I have no problem with AGon in the field, his defense is exceptional but at the plate he’s feast or famine, recently it’s been the latter. I’d like to see him hitting in the 7 hole personnally.
As for Schafer, wow, he’s another head scratcher. Blazing speed on the bases and in the field, better than average defensively but his OBP is terrible!!! An OBP of .295 for a leadoff hitter is unbelieveable low! Yes, to answer a comment earlier he can steal bases…but he can’t sitting in the dugout. I think Fredi should try a couple of options to jumpstart the leadoff spot, either drop McLouth back into the 1 hole again and give him another go there, he’s been making better contact and has better than average speed, he can steal some bases and help manufacture some runs and his OBP is .347, a good bit better than Schafer. We’ve been scoring some runs of late, but in spurts instead of throughout the game. Another option, albeit not the best would be to let Uggla get some swings in the leadoff spot, not the best choice but an occasional spot start in the 1 hole couldn’t hurt, he’s hitting the ball hard again.