Offense Picking Up Slack
July 23, 2011 at 1:30 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Here are the earned run averages for Braves starting pitchers in July:
Tommy Hanson: 4.62
Jair Jurrjens: 3.81
Derek Lowe: 5.60
Tim Hudson: 2.96
Brandon Beachy: 6.32
All of those, aside from Hudson, are higher than their season totals. The starting pitchers are struggling a bit, which is to be expected out of every rotation at times. Thankfully, the offense has picked up the slack, scoring the third most amount of runs in the NL this month. Most of the improvement has come in the power department, where the Braves have the highest July slugging percentage in the league at .437.
Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman having great power months are a large reason why the offense has come to life as of late. Freeman and Uggla both have six home runs and slugging percentages over .630 in July, and Heyward has four homers with a .350 wOBA. The on base skills are still down, but the team is hitting homers with regularity and are now tied for the league lead in home runs for the season with 112.
With the regressions that were expected and have started to occur from Jurrjens and Hanson, the offense picking up the slack was necessary. While searching for an upgrade of centerfield is still a respectable option, the offense may be able to hold its own without an improvement in center. Still, a right-handed bench player who can play centerfield is likely the ideal trade candidate at this time, along with a right-handed reliever.
Many have been upset with Heyward’s performance and some egregiously called for the Braves to consider sending him down or platooning him. Heyward’s wRC+ is now up to 107, which is far from the level of performance that was expected but still much better than that of any potential full-time replacement. His home runs over the past two days are hopefully signs that he is ready to rake, which would coincide with Uggla’s rebound and Freeman’s hot streak.
Martin Prado has also provided some unexpected pop, hitting 11.5% of his fly balls out of the park in comparison to the 7.9% he has for his career. That number will likely slide back down toward career norms, but the 10 home runs in 317 plate appearances have been impressive and would put him on pace for more than 20 if he were to net the 651 plate appearances he had last season — he won’t reach that total due to missed time.
Overall, the offense seems to be coming together at the perfect time. Ideally, the starting pitching is able to give a bit more than they have in July and the offense can continue to roll, so that the back-end of the bullpen can receive a bit more rest. Before the season, many thought the Braves offense would produce like one of the best in the league and they are finally starting to do so.
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I’m curious as to a couple things, especially with our starter’s ERA’s lately. We played in Coors and in great American, so I assume the ERA’s have been somewhat inflated – what are their ballpark independent ERAs? Also, the entire nation is going through a heat wave, and doesn’t offense pick up with temperature? Yes we expected regression for Jurrjens, but I don’t think this last start should be considered a regression. Those HRs were a few of the only hits he allowed and maybe it was cooler or a different ballpark, they would have been long fly balls? Also, what are our pitchers splits on home/away?
Thanks for the info…great to see the offense showing some life. Absolutely agree that the biggest acquisitions the Braves can make are Heyward and Uggla. Beltran is NOT the answer in my opinion and is not worth any of our minor league arms that could potentially bring us something in the off-season.
July xFIP:
Tommy Hanson – 2.63
Jair Jurrjens- 3.46
Tim Hudson- 3.71
Derek Lowe- 4.02
Brandon Beachy- 4.49
how much of the pitching issues are a result of the 5 post break games at coors and in cincy? seems like the starters have been getting touched up a little more than normal lately…
They’ve played one game at Cincy so far… Hard to put any blame on that. Park factors of course do matter, but they are not the lone reason for the Braves’ offensive success and the pitchers’ struggles over the past month or so.
It has been easy to stay patient with the offense as this team has stayed in contention. We are in great shape, and I am squarely in the camp of not wanting to trade a solid young SP to a divisional foe. That is the kind of move you’d make if you were in danger of missing the playoffs this year and/ or you were not positioned to contend next year. Neither of those is the case. Tweak the bench and bullpen and keep the cost to a minimum.
Think we should be putting any stock in these BJ Upton rumors flying around? Curious what we’d be sending over for him.
andruw jones & koji uehara.
So I decided to check out the M’s roster for possible trades (all hole fillers, nothing big) since they have lost 13 in a row, I now understand why they have lost 13 in a row.
@3 thanks. that shows that yes there has been some regression but not as bad as traditional ERA shows.
Re: Powell
Get ur tix for Rome tonite at 7. Chipper Jones will play @ Rome Sat & Sun and, if all goes well, will be in #Braves lineup Mon v Pitt.
What do you guys think of Olney’s suggestion of Reed Johnson as a target for the Braves?
@Joe S/6
Where are you getting your information on the Upton rumors?
Anyone else think Braves should move Beachy to the BP to be the high-leverage Righty and bring Minor up into the rotation?
Beachy’s innings get limited somewhat, Minor gets extended Major League expirience which he really needs, and the Braves get the Righty in the bullpen and lefty in the rotation they need.
Brian Snitker has cost the Braves 2 runs in 2 games. Learned his lesson and didn’t send Uggla there.
No matter where they hide Gonzalez in the lineup, the runners on base seem to find him (although he was decent yesterday).
@12/Thomas: I think both Minor and Beachy should be on the MLB roster to improve the bullpen.
Haha… Lowe doing work. Bases loaded single.
Looks like we found the RH bat we were looking for in Derek Lowe. Maybe Fredi will PH with him since he won’t use Ross.
Seems like something stupid FG would do right?
Good Derek Lowe has showed up early. Would be nice to see him go deep in this game with the back-end of the bullpen taxed lately.
@15: Lowe as a hitter this year (before today):
*His ISO (power) is higher than Schafer
*His OBP is a few points behind Gonzalez
*His wRC+ is better than 3 of our bench bats (current and former): Hernandez, Lugo, Hicks
@thomas
To me, that sounds like a great idea. Id prefer Beachy in the pen to Viz due to experience. Plus Beach has excellent command of his pitches and limits the walks. That’s huge for a high leverage guy.
Sure feels like a 2010 Braves game with the ridiculous LOB numbers. Good news is that the Reds bullpen is not very good and they will be throwing by the 6th inning at least.
@18/NRPS
I haven’t figured out how to verify this due to apathy and lack of time, but it *felt* like last year’s team stranded runners at an alarming rate. Particularly down the stretch, we’d typically get 9 baserunners in the first 4 innings and score 1 of them. Of course that team was really good at walking but not that good at hitting.
This year’s team seems much the same except they don’t walk as frequently. They seem awful at scoring runs when there’s a man at 3rd with none out or after a lead-off double. I’m suspicious that all baseball teams frustrate you by stranding runners, and it’s just that I notice that these Braves do it a lot. Then again, part of me feels it has something to do with the organization’s hitting philosophy.
Yes, and 8 baserunners in 4 innings today, and if not for Lowe, we’d be getting shut-out. Homer Bailey is pitching about as poorly as he can.
sorry, 9 baserunners. uggla got HBP
MLB Trade Rumors reports that Arodys Vizcaino was moved to the Gwinnett bullpen. Anyone know if this is true or if this is the precursor to moving him to the big league pen??
@15 – How stupid could it be? He’s hitting over .200 with 4 doubles and 6 RBIs.
@19/JohnWDB: I think the stat may be ‘Run Scoring Percentage’ (RS%). [http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2010-batting.shtml]
For 2010, the Braves RS% was 31% – league average is 30%. This year is 29%. Seems about right, since the average strand rate for a pitcher is 70%.
Color me surprised. I had the same feeling as you, especially in 2010. Score another one for stats over feelings.
@18
Yep, Bailey at 99 pitches through 5.
@22: The way the front office has managed the bullpen personnel this year has been consistently confounding. There are several guys in AAA right now that would almost certainly improve the bullpen over Proctor.
Really needed 1 person to get on base there. Bailey would have been burned and then that reliever would have been burned for a PH.
@22 & @26: Isn’t the Vizcaino move about limiting innings pitched down the stretch? Seems like I saw that somewhere.
@28/Jeff: He was already in the AA bullpen, so now he’s in AAA apparently. No clue if that means he’ll be called up.
@24/NRPS
The difficulty I’ve run into when trying to analyze that is that RS% should positively correlate with OBP. To conceptualize, consider that a team that has a 1.000 OBP will score 100% of its runners. Very low OBP’s should result in very low RS%, by contrast. In between lies some non-linear function. As such, I feel that the Braves of 2010 should’ve scored a higher percentage of their runners than average.
Here’s another feeling I’ve always had: When you waste scoring opportunities early, despite having a small lead, you tend to lose the game. Wonder if that’s actually true.
Hey look. Regular Derek Lowe is back. 4-2 Reds now, giving Homer Baily a shot at the win even though he threw hot garbage up there that the Braves bats didn’t ever manage to square up (except Lowe).. and now Scott Proctor is warming up.
That’s ball game. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Lowe and the 6th is like oil and water. It’s like he can’t wait to get to the dugout and rest.
Well this sucks eggs.
Lowe is garbage. Would trade him in a second for the salary relief, and would be fine having Minor take his place.
FOX is sucking balls right now.
SCOTT PROCTOR CURED! jk
Gomes strikes out against the Proctologist.
DO NOT TRADE FOR GOMES!!!
I must’ve hit my head. Proctor just got out of the jam unscathed.
@30: I see your point. Don’t know what the answer is.
Braves had Bailey on the ropes and let him off…ugh.
Padres took the lead, but Phils threatening to take it back… Could be a rough day in the division.
So Proctor stays in and gives up a leadoff double.
Really, no need to keep it at two runs in the bottom of the 7th…jeeeez.
5 games back – book it. DFA Proctor already – WTF!!
@42/hipeter1987
Yeah, Howard tied it with a pinch-hit homer.
And Martinez untied it with a 3-run homer
Why the fuck is this noodle still on the roster.
Of all the times to try to keep within two runs, this was an important one…and Fredi “runs Scotty out there for another inning.”
Pathetic.
Why does McCann have a pistol out? Is he going to shoot himself, or Proctor, or Fredi?