Capitol Avenue Club Podcast :: Episode 7
July 25, 2011 at 11:43 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Podcast
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We’re back after a long delay for which we apologize. In this week’s episode we discuss the Jordan Schafer/Nate McLouth debate, Dan Uggla’s recent surge, rookie of the year voting, the trade deadline, and listener mail on Fredi Gonzalez, Scott Proctor, and Hunter Pence.
Music courtesy of Mezz Mezzrow.
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No post-game thread tonight on account of this.
I talk really, really fast… lol.
Really great podcast guys, keep it up.
So can I use this thread to talk about how Lugo just swung at a pitch that bounced IN FRONT OF the left side batters box? Can we afford a utility infielder that doesnt swing with his eyes closed?
That 8th and 9th inning was the worst PH/Subbing I have ever seen; Lugo was allowed to bat but Ross wasn’t.
Reposting from the prior thread: The PH decisions tonight were baffling:
*Ross (2nd best hitter on the team) is pulled for McCann (best hitter).
*Gonzalez is allowed to hit in 2 situations where he should have been PH for.
*Schafer burned as a PH to lead off an inning (out of course, should have been Hinske) and then can’t be used to come in for defense later, which means you can’t PH for McLouth (Braves could have had Ross and McCann back to back).
*Lugo is allowed to hit in the bottom of the 9th instead of Conrad, when his glove is meaningless if the Braves lose or walk-off, and Conrad can play 3rd if the game is tied.
Even if you are saving 1 of Conrad and Hinske for the pitcher’s spot (formerly Chipper’s spot) you can use the other one, dumbass. 2 of our best PH bats were on the bench and Gonzalez and Lugo got ABs in the bottom of the 9th.
@ Curtis… Rossy started the game.
Rumor mill says the Nats are talking to Minnesota about Denard Span. I’m skeptical that the Twins move him this season, especially because he’s much better than Ben Revere.
I think the Braves could make an interesting off-season play for him. He’s a good center fielder. He’s entering what should be his prime. He’s got some good defensive skills and has leadoff experience. Lord knows his .366 career OBP would be world’s better than Schafer next year. Most importantly, he’s signed through 2015 (buy out for that 2015 season) to a really team friendly deal.
I’m thinking Jurrjens for Span, Trevor Plouffe, and a low level prospect.
@6
I was totally baffled by McCann pinch-hitting for Ross.
Let Ross hit, then use McCann…and all your other points are good, too.
Managers can’t win games, but they sure as hell can lose them.
Also forgot that Hinske could have taken over Prado’s OF spot and Prado could have taken over at 3B, so there was *no point whatsoever* for Lugo to be in the game. Could have been held back to sub in for Alex at SS after Alex was pulled down for Conrad/bat as a last resort if they go to Chipper’s spot.
@ Curtis… Rossy started the game
I’m aware. I meant he wasn’t allowed to hit in the 8th but Lugo was allowed to in the 9th.
Not to re-iterate my disdain for McClouth in CF again but, I cant help myself. Even the broadcasters were baffled.
Situation: Score 0-0, 1 out, runner on 1st and speedster Andrew McCutchen on 2nd. On a ball to center McClouth flails a terrible and futile throw to third that is no where close to catching an advancing McCutchen. This allows the runner on 1st to also advance to 2nd.
This may seem innocent, but in reality, it broke up any chance for an inning ending double play for Hudson AND, put not 1 but 2 runners in scoring position. Needless to say, the next batter rips a 2 run single. Bucs go up 2-0.
Even though it can be argued Prado should have caught the sinking liner single, you can’t assume that he makes the great diving play either. This is yet another example of why Nate hurts the Braves just by being on defense.
@11 Nate McLouth was far from the reason why we lost this game
Podcast was interesting and entertaining, thanks very much, guys.
@ Curtis,
My bad. I see what you meant. It’s been a long night.
@doug: Small point – it wasn’t a 2-run single. The first run scored on what should have been a DP chance. Either way, it sucked.
Here begins my silly question:
Is there any way we could convert David Ross to another position? (I realize this seems really stupid in that Ross is very good catcher, but obviously McCann can’t play anything else.) Bigger question is probably would Ross even consider switching. Obviously we would then need a serviceable catcher to back McCann up too.
Also how long are we going to be able to hold onto Ross? It seems like he could easily be a starter in other places.
I don’t think you’d want to convert Ross, just don’t be afraid to use his bat off the bench.
@16: Short of the NL adopting the DH, there’s not much that can be done to get Ross more playing time. Arguably (but unrealistic) if Freeman was scuffling at first, you could convert Ross to 1B. But as well as he’s been hitting, there’s no point. And that move would have been more theoretical than anything mid-season.
He signed a very favorable contract with the Braves. My completely baseless speculation is that: (1) he likes ATL, (2) he likes playing 1/5th of the time rather than full-time, and (3) whatever raise he would get as a free agent isn’t enough in his mind to trump 1 and 2.
There’s a lot of surplus value in his contract -even as a backup- so I wonder if he has a no-trade clause (or a gentleman’s understanding with Wren [do those exist in baseball?]). When he signed his extension I didn’t see anything about a no-trade clause, but I’m not sure if that is always disclosed.
@ 18 NRPS. Schuerholz forbade no-trade clauses, so I think it’s a fairly safe bet that Wren does, too. That doesn’t mean there isn’t some kind of gentleman’s agreement or something behind the scenes, though, as you mentioned.
Random thought while watching tonight’s game – seems like Alex Gonzalez frequently barks at umpires and argues practically every safe call at a play he’s involved in. My initial thought was that’s usually the sign of a crappy clubhouse companion, but maybe he’s aware that his only real value is with the glove and he’s ferociously protective of the only thing that keeps him from being a AAA player?
I agree that McLouth’s decision to throw to third in the second was a terrible decision. It changed the whole inning. You need to keep the double play in order. Cedeno hits a groundball that could be a double play. Hudson is then out of the inning without giving up any runs.
After the last couple of games on ESPN, I don’t think I’ll mind so much when the Braves are back to being on their regular channels and unavailable here in Virginia most of the time except when playing against the Nats or when they get picked up the Baseball Network. Jeez, what crappy baseball.
The thing that strikes me about this team is that, yeah, it’s talented…physically talented, especially the pitching staff…but they play stupid. Almost all the time. There are exceptions of course, but most of the position players on this team seem to have very low baseball IQs. And, of course, the manager (and I’m starting to think the GM too) helps lower the aggregate baseball IQ by another 50 points or so. It’s a good team, but no so good that it can afford to play this stupidly all the time.
@18
Good points. Ross is a 34 year-old catcher, so maybe he doesn’t think his legs could stand up to being an everyday catcher. With his current workload (only catching 1/5 games plus a few innings here and there), he could keep going until he hits 40.
@12
Mclouth was the sole reason we lost that game. His cluelessness in the field led directly to 2 runs scoring.
Schafer may be a hole in the lineup, but so is mclouth. But the difference is, Schafer is a better defender and more of a threat to steal bases and score (when he does get on base).
@22 He actually did a great interview about a month ago that stated he did not feel he was a starter. He said he had tried that, and failed pretty bad. He lumped himself with Skee in that they both have failed as starters, recognize they are bench players, and take that role very seriously.
Further on Ross, if he doesn’t become a manager some day I will be shocked.
CAC,
In the podcast you guys addressed the reason why you all think Proctor is on the roster: his clubhouse presence. I’m curious; given his proclivity for dart like fastballs in the heart of the strike zone, why not DFA him with a promise to bring him on as a special assistant coach to throw BP (make the hitters comfortable) and bring his wisdom and good guyness to the bullpen for funsies during the game? Front office, Proctor, and the team all benefit.
Nice work on the podcast, boys, especially as regards content. Now that there are three voices in the stable, the podcast has developed the style of an interview. I listen to Nnamdi and Rehm almost every day and they do their interlocutors the favor of finishing almost every question by addressing the person they would have answer it. For example, “were you pleased with how Fredi Gonzalez appeared to handle Nate’s throwing gaff in the first inning, Ben?” Or, “many consider it a lapse of judgment that Julio Lugo was allowed by Gonzalez to bat in the ninth inning of a three run game. Is this indicative of a willingness in Fredi Gonzalez to cede wins in unfavorable situations? If so, how do you think such a reclining attitude will affect the Braves as they pursue a playoff berth in the last third of the season, Peter?” Now that I think on it, it appears that such a method yields two benefits. It eliminates the likelihood that respondents will talk over each other while fending off the potential of their talking over you.
Please don’t think that I imagine I’d do any better, gentlemen. The art of the interview is a tough one.
Thanks again for your hard work.
“Further on Ross, if he doesn’t become a manager some day I will be shocked.”
@24…I wish the Braves were hiring.
@23
You’re kidding right? Neither is a + defender(nate’s weak arm and schaefer’s poor routes), and JS’s “intangibles,” his slightly above average BS ability, combined with his laughably poor hitting skills do not net a more serviceable option than McClouth at center, when ante’s hitting is noticeably better.
I heard Brandon McCarthy’s name mentioned at some point I believe.
Peter, Ben, Kevin — can one of you enlighten me on what that was about? I couldn’t really catch it when I was listening.
@16 Google for DOB’s interview with Ross earlier this year.
He says he doesn’t want to be a starter and he doesn’t think his numbers would hold up for an entire season.
@21 Agreed. It’s really annoying and frustrating to watch your team play bad fundamental baseball. At one time that was a team strength and a reason to like them. Maybe I’m remembering selectively but they seem to have slipped a lot Bobby’s last years and are terrible now.
Pastornicky is now tearing up AAA. Could he be big-league ready by September? Any change we would promote him with the roster expansion in September?
Everyone may already know this, but I had yet to see it confirmed. This is a rotowire update on Fangraphs.
7/26/2011: Schafer struck out as a pinch hitter in Monday’s loss to Pittsburgh. Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said Schafer will remain his starting center fielder when he’s able to play in the field again due to a chip fracture in his finger, MLB.com reports.
I have always been in favor of starting McLouth, but I looked at their numbers today and now I am not so sure. Schafer is essentially an average defender in CF. UZR/150 of 6.9 this year, career of -3.9 – both are small sample sizes (really all of his stats). McLouth’s UZR/150 over the last 3 years in CF is -20.3. Assuming 10 runs=~1 win, that is a pretty big hit. McLouth is obviously the better baserunner, but the difference in the two does not really mean a lot. Schafer career, -1.2…McLouth ’09-’11, 4.7. Again, assuming 10 runs=~1 win, that is slightly more than half of one win. Schafer’s ability to steal bases does not factor in as a plus for him given his career success rate of 77.3%. McLouth obviously provides more value with his bat, but how much more? McLouth’s wRC+ over the last 3 years is 94, Schafer’s career is 70. Taking their wRAA in the time spans mentioned above, standardizing them by dividing by plate appearances, and then extrapolating that number to 650 plate appearances (1 season) shows McLouth comes out on top by about 18 runs. i.e. not enough to make up for his fielding.
Neither is an everyday CF or should ever bat above 7th, and McLouth is certainly the better option in a platoon split. But my point is this, if the Braves only have these two options in CF then maybe the choice for McLouth is not that clear.
29/Todd
McCarthy’s name was mentioned as a guy who pays close attention to statistics and sabermetrics.
Okay, that’s what I thought I heard, but wasn’t sure. Thanks.
I had never heard that before, that’s interesting. I wonder if/how he applies it.
@33
Nice analysis. It just makes me believe even more strongly that neither one is a decent option in CF.
I wish Fredi would try out Prado in CF to see how he does. I feel like he would be better than McLouth defensively (or at least equal). Then a Beltran deal would make a lot of sense. But if Fredi refuses to put Prado in CF, then it makes no sense to deal for Beltran, except as Chipper insurance (which isn’t worth the price).
@ PeterJ #32,
Pastornicky isn’t on the 40-man, which means Atlanta would have to drop someone else to make space for him. The same holds true for Viz as well.
If you want to bring Pastornicky up come September (and it’ll be a tempting question if his production continues at this pace until then), you’ve got to clear space by getting rid of either Diory or Hicks on the 40-man roster.
Moylan is on the 60-day DL, so a move is going to have to be made to free up a spot on the 40-man roster for him. Ideally they’d just cut all ties with Proctor, but my guess is that they send Stephen Marek to the 60-day DL.
Royal (or anybody else),
Is there a reason that they wouldn’t want to move Marek to the 60 day DL? Earlier this year, they really dragged moving Moylan and Medlen, as I remember.
McLouth the reason we lost??? How about Prado, JHey & Gonzo going 1-13 with 0BB & 6Ks (all courtesy of the latter 2)? I don’t understand why Gonzo can’t help but swing at breaking balls in the dirt outside with 2 strikes. Nate did fuck up with the throw, & did pop up with the bases loaded, but remember he owned McDonald & was the reason they took him out of the game so early. We’ve talked about it over and over, the top of the lineup must get on base, they didn’t today, hence the loss.
Just did a quick google search for “frank wren no-trade clause” and got distracted by this JC Bradbury post from from 2008 called “Frank Wren, Stat-Head”
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/frank-wren-stat-head/
Not much to it, but it just got me thinking that I’d really be interested in finding out how heady (brah) Wren and Fredi really are and how that plays out when they’re building a team.
Well, um, I think we can assume that there’s not much going on inside of ol’ Fredi’s cap (tip). But you know what I’m getting at…
Alex Gonzalez flailed at a 0-0 curveball that was 1 foot or more outside. He actually checked his swing, but he missed by about 18 inches. The announcers joked “you can’t swing and miss by more than that”, chuckling. Gonzalez also came up with the bases loaded late in the game and flailed helplessly.
Maybe the Blue Jays would be stupid enough to trade Yunel Escobar for him.. Nah, nobody would be that stupid.
I don’t get why there isn’t more talk of the Braves trading for Michael Bourne. Good obp, speed (which Fredi apparently loves in the leadoff spot no matter what the metrics say about how little it matters), and he is a plus defender. That way we can throw out a lineup of:
Bourne
Prado
Mac
Chip (if healthy, which I realize is a huge ?)
Freeman
Uggla
JHey (possible switch of last last two depending on who is hot)
AGon
Pitcher (might be better to bat the pitcher 8th)
It just seems to fit to me.
Julio Lugo is the only backup SS in the world that can make fans hope that AGon is in the lineup.
On a sidenote: Lugo is in the lineup today, and Schafer is hitting leadoff. Jurrjens better pitch a shutout.
bowman is throwing jon rauch and jason frasor out there on the rumor mill…i’d rather have uehara.
Looking at the primary playoff contenders, here is how many plate appearances each team has given to hitters with an OPS+ (on-base + slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to where 100 is a league average hitter) of 75 or less, entering Sunday’s action. (From Baseball-Reference.com.)
National League
1. Brewers, 1250
2. Braves, 823
3. Giants, 809
4. Pirates, 660
5. Phillies, 534
6. Reds, 461
7. Diamondbacks, 456
8. Cardinals, 231
Gotta love that.
One more thing, for the love of God, will people quit asking for the Braves to acquire Michael Bourn? He runs fast. Big deal. So is Schafer. He’s a plus defender. So is Schafer. He’s a decent offensive player, but not worth giving up good prospects for. I’d rather have Beltran who can give us more of a dynamic impact.
Plus, who’s to say that he’s not going to come to ATL and be subjected to LP’s stupidity and be ruined as a hitter.
One more thing, I’m still kind of a rookie to this whole sabermetrics thing, but I think leadoff hitter’s (or “table setters”) are overrated.
@45/nOOb
Batting orders are overrated, yes. But if you think Bourn and Schafer are comparable, then your last sentence is redundant. Here’s a saber subject for you to peruse: wOBA.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0
Report back to us on your findings re: Bourn vs. Schafer
@45/A-ron
Sabermetrics prove Michael Bourn is a significant upgrade over our current CF position (Schafer or McLouth). His fWAR over the past three years is 13.0 (which leads all CF). In other words, you could argue he has been the most valuable CF in baseball over the past three seasons. I’d recommend reading through the definitions of all of the terms under the “Glossary” tab on this website http://www.fangraphs.com. After that initial introduction to sabermetrics, check out Bourn’s statistics as compared to McLouth and Schafer. Michael Bourn has been an elite player at his position in the last few years, and is a much more valuable addition than Beltran IMO given that he plays a position of need for the Braves and is under team control through 2012. As I have said before (along with many others), I would hate to see one of our Big Four pitching prospects traded, but if the team could acquire Bourn without including any of those four then I would jump at that opportunity.
To compare Schafer and Bourn’s speed and defense is laughable. Have you seen how many bad routes Schafer takes to the ball? And on the speed scale Schafer probably rates 60 (of 80) where as Bourn is probably 70 or above. That’s a big difference, especially considering his obp is nearly 75 points higher than Schafer’s meaning there is more opportunities for him to use that speed.
Also, would it really be a wise investment for the Braves to trade these same prospects you don’t want to trade for a player who will play for the Braves for last two months and then bolt? Not to mention the obvious problem of where do you play Beltran? You put him in center, you greatly increase his chances of getting hurt, meaning you just traded a prospect interdivision for pratically no return. If you put him in right or left, that means you are benching one of your teams best players and you are still stuck with the same blackhole in CF. I don’t buy into trying to move JHey or Prado to CF at this point in the year. Too many things could go wrong there.
BTW – The plate appearances info was a great find, and confirms what we have felt like we were seeing from our lineups. “Leadoff hitters” in the traditional baseball sense (i.e. speedsters) are indeed overrated, but the importance of a good true leadoff hitter is not. The most important trait of a leadoff hitter is the ability to get on base, and then not produce an out once he reaches base.
Here it is:
1. Jordan Schafer (L) CF
2. Martin Prado (R) 3B
3. Brian McCann (L) C
4. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
5. Dan Uggla (R) 2B
6. Jason Heyward (L) RF
7. Nate McLouth (L) LF
8. Julio Lugo (R) SS
9. Tommy Hanson (R) P