Report: Braves Don’t Find as Much Value in OBP
July 29, 2011 at 9:04 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Buster Olney reported this in a tweet about an hour ago, in reference to the Braves’ run at Hunter Pence:
Observation from an NL official about the Braves’ interest in Hunter Pence: “They don’t value on-base percentage as much as other teams do.”
As a saber-slanted Braves blog, it would be near blasphemy for us not to touch on this statement. Here are a few quick numbers on this.
Braves in 2010: .339 OBP (1st in NL), 738 runs (5th in NL)
Braves in 2011: .309 OBP (13th in NL), 428 runs (9th in NL)
The Braves are on pace to score 654 runs this year, which would be one less than the San Diego Padres (.317 OBP) and Washington Nationals (.318 OBP) did last year. While there are certainly other factors, which is evident by the Braves’ rank in OBP and runs in each season, nothing attributes to run scoring as much as getting on base.
Not valuing outs is just absolutely mind-boggling. You get 27 of them per game, each should be treated as somewhat sacred. You simply are not going to score many runs if you do not get on base. The Braves are hitting for a lot more power this year than last year, which has helped them maintain at least respectable run scoring totals, but it is literally impossible to state that they would not have more if they got on base more.
It is quite odd, because one would have assumed last year’s performance in terms of on base totals and run scoring would lead the team to value OBP even more than they did previously, but that is apparently not close to true.
I have had problems with players’ and coaches’ statements in the past. Fredi not knowing Schafer’s OBP is considerably lower than McLouth’s, and Francoeur asking that if OBP was so important then why isn’t it on the scoreboard are two great examples of that. But I seldom get aggravated by reports about the front office’s philosophies. Of course, this is just one NL official speaking, so maybe Wren and Co. value it more than this anonymous official feels, but it is a bit disconcerting to think that this is what competitors think of the franchise.
But hey, if the Braves don’t think OBP is that important, hopefully they go for B.J. Upton (.309) rather than Hunter Pence (.356).
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HaHa, this is ridiculous since they are essentially looking for a leadoff hitter.
Saw that tweet from Buster Olney. Liked it a lot. I cannot emphasize enough that if OBP were important THEY WOULD PUT IT ON THE SCOREBOARD. The only things our front office should care about are hits, runs, errors, and if watching the game on most networks, runners left on base. Maybe sacrifices too. Other than that, statistics are generally pretty misleading.
i’ve never typed this sequence of letters out before now, but it’s all i can think of:
o.m.g.
Well, watching Fredi manage and Wren GM…and listening to Fredi spew stupidity almost nonstop…didn’t we all sort of know this before now? I would guess there is a lot of other important stuff that they don’t place much value in either. (shrug)
Thomas, don’t forget their record when scoring 2 or fewer runs or 4 or more runs. Apparently that’s important.
It’s mind-boggling, really. OBP isn’t even an advanced stat. How many times did you go to the plate? How many times did you not get out? Divide the two. It’s such a basic premise that is crucial to the point of the game.
The point of playing baseball is to win. In order to win, you need to score more runs than your opponent. Every play of the game is a competition where your team is trying to score runs and the other team trying to get you out. On-Base Percentage measures how many times you didn’t get out.
/rant
Thomas,
You do realize that more runs are scored when there are more runners on base right?
@6 jgainer
bro, baserunners and runs aren’t important; saves and sacrifice bunts win championships.
Re-post from the previous blog.
Did we really need a Buster Olney tweet saying “The Braves don’t value on-base percentage as much as other teams do.”
Fredi loved batting Schafer/Gonzo 1/2. The tweet should have read:
“The Braves don’t give a fuck about OBP, but it may be because they have no idea what OBP is.”
Thanks Shaun,
That is important. In fact, anything Chip Carey talks about is REALLY important. His family has been covering baseball for a long time, and when he says something like, “watch out for Overbay, he’s been great in this park” you damn well better listen. Because even though Overbay has a .289 wOBA this season, Turner Field brings out his true talent level that for some reason has only shown up in his 64 PA there. If Lyle Overbay played for the Braves, he would be a first ballot HOF’er. He wouldn’t even have to wait the 5 years.
So yes, all the 1 run games or when scoring this amount or that amount their record is…all that stuff is very important. This is what I take away from it; the Braves should try to score as many runs as possible and prevent the other teams from doing the same. Joe Simpson agrees I think.
“Productive” outs, that’s the stuff of championships. Just ask Fredi. He’ll tell you. Who needs stinkin’ pansy walks.
@10
Absolutely. If I were manager, I would have people sacrifice bunt without people on base just to get the practice in. It’s that important.
I wouldn’t make too much of the quote. Like you said, it’s just what an NL Official thinks. Also, we don’t know if the official had some other motivation for saying it.
As far as the team’s OBP performance, I don’t think it’s some philosophical shift from last year, it’s Heyward and Uggla struggling and Chipper missing a decent chunk(s) of time. Perhaps playing Schafer as much as they do is a philosophical issue with OBP, but that seems to be about it.
Over the years, I’ve learned that these anonymous “statements from another team’s official” are pretty meaningless. Half the time they are just speculating, the other half they’re deliberately planting misinformation for one reason or the other.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this was just some form of “smack talk” between rival franchises.
As Heyward and Uggla come around I think we’ll see this team finish in the middle of the pack in OBP.
And yes, I think there’s no way the team actually straight up platoons Heyward (he might sit a few more days, which isn’t a bad idea, but nothing close to a platoon) and they definitely aren’t optioning him to the minors.
@ Thomas 9:
And don’t forget that Derek Lowe was 10-0 in his career against PIT before last night, so was an obvious pick to click. I mean, throw away the fact that 95% of the guys he faced while on the Pirates are now gone – that laundry affects performance!!
The hell with it. Let’s just all be Red Sox fans. They get it. And they’ll put up a five spot in an inning before you can blink.
@12
While I agree we shouldn’t make too much of the anonymous quote, going after Hunter Pence shows that maybe our FO isn’t all that competent. Not only do we not have room in the field for a corner outfielder beyond 2011 (assuming Chipper doesn’t retire), but he has no plate discipline and will start to get pretty expensive in his final arbitration years.
@13
Lost $5000 on the game last night. Thought it was a “sure thing”.
If they really do trade Pence and demote Heyward, I’m probably done being a Braves fan, so I’m going to try and enjoy the next few days by thinking positively (even if I have no legitimate reason to do so).
I’m going to pretend that the Braves interest in Pence is all about convincing the Phillies to send Brown and Cosart for Pence. The Quentin rumors are just part of creating that illusion. The only real discussions center on Upton and Crisp to man CF and Ludwick and Willingham to provide a RH bat off the bench and provide insurance for another injury to Chipper. All is as it should be.
Thomas Grantham, I can’t tell if you’re trolling hardcore or if you’re just stupid. Either way, I don’t even want to argue with you.
@15
I’m not convinced we’re actually going after Hunter Pence. I could definitely be wrong, but this whole Hunter Pence thing smells like a classic case of trying to create leverage with another team.
It’s not usually this public if it’s real as far as midseason trades go. I mean just think ALL THE WAY BACK to Beltran. The Giants weren’t rumored to be in it until the very end, and even then the Braves were considered the “frontrunner”.
In line with what fjrabon said, see the McLouth and Uggla deals. Who thought that the Braves would pull those rabbits out of a hat?
Some might not find those to be great examples because of the season(s) they’ve had since joining the Braves but the pieces the Braves gave up are hardly worth the value the Braves could have conceivably gotten from these two players.
An alternative way of reading that quote (I’m only half-joking):
Hunter Pence has the 24th best OBP (.356) among outfielders this year. That’s far better than any Braves outfielder! Martin Prado is our leader at .313.
Perhaps the anonymous official is simply confused about why the Braves wouldn’t go all in and offer Teheran and others for such a stellar OBP! I mean, the Phillies seem to be offering more than the Braves, and nobody says that THEY don’t value OBP…
Even if the statement were true, it’s hard to evaluate what it means without any context.
It could mean that the Braves are in the bottom half of the league in terms of valuing OBP. It could mean that they value OBP less than other contenders for Pence, like the Phillies. Or, we could assume the worst.
I’m guessing that there are teams that value OBP more than the Braves, but we all knew that. Even so, since Wren took over in 2007 the Braves rank 3rd in the NL in OBP and 9th in SLG. The numbers don’t reveal anything alarming.
@17
Just looked up “trolling” on Urban Dictionary. I wasn’t aware of that practice but now realize I may have been guilty of it and apologize if I caused your blood pressure to go up.
@18
I Hope you’re right; my guess is the Phillies get him any anyways, because they appear willing to give up D Brown.
Thomas Grantham: It was rather over the top, but I noted a bit of seriousness. Well done.
anyone who needs a tweet saying the Braves don’t value OBP, just hasn’t been watching them closely enough this year.
But yeah it’s still mind-numbing to actually hear the words out in the media.
More often than not, the team with most men left on base wins. Counterintuitive.
That statement is not all that inconsistent with, say, trading Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez because he has a better “attitude” and (seemingly at the time) more “pop.”
Even at the time, in Escobar’s down season, his OBP was 40 points higher and it was 100 points higher in 2009. This is a team that has publicly stated a strong affection for, and for a period actually chose to, bat Schafer, with an OBP about 40 points lower than McLouth.
Is our OBP deficiency due to lack of talent or hitting philosophy? I’m going with the latter.
We have a remarkably similar lineup to last year with the exception of injuries (Chip and Prado are our best OBP guys).
Freeman = upgrade at 1B and Prado = upgrade in LF, but Uggla, Gonzo, and Heyward’s struggles must be the culprits for the drop in OBP (and those #s should come back up). Shafer should be batting 8th in our best lineup and getting a boost in OBP, much like McClouth (whose OBP is inflated).
Regression says our OBP will be better by the end of the season, unless Parrish really does have that much impact on how we hit. I still have hope.
Scout’s view on Pence:
Not a fast bat . . . Needs to cheat a lot and therefore strikes out a lot . . . Not a high OPS guy . . . Would not protect [Ryan] Howard in the batting order . . . Not a guy I would like to pay a lot over the next 3 years like you would have to in [arbitration] . . . Not a great defensive player either. Not a premium guy worth giving up premium cheap future-salaried young players . . . I would trade the young guys if it was a guy with an OPS of .950 or above, more athletic with higher upside with a faster bat.
via:
http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/paul_hagen/20110729_Paul_Hagen__A_scout_s_dissenting_view_of_Astros__Pence.html#ixzz1TVKAyNSm
I’m really surprised, with as shrewd and calculating as readers of this blog are, that they moss sarcasm so frequently. Thomas was obviously being sarcastic. If you didn’t get it beforehand, when he said “sacrifices” matter, that should’ve given it away.
Prior to this year the Braves have been remarkably consistent in OBP. 2010 – .339, 2009 – .339, 2008 – .345, 2007 – .339, 2006 – .345, 2005 – .339, 2004 – .337. I could go on, but this is pretty much the pattern for the Bobby Cox years. It’s interesting because the impression one gets from reading most of the commentary is that last year was anomalous when, in fact, it was in line with what they have done in recent years. Now this new regime under Gonzalez and Wren may not value OBP as much as Cox did. Time will only tell.
All I have to say is that it fits with the hitting approach. I wouldn’t have expected anything different than the front office. How hard is it to realize that when a person gets on base, most pitchers become less effective (not your typical aces like Halladay)? I can hear Fredi say it now, “We might not get on base at the same clip as all of the other playoff-caliber teams, but we sure can hit a solo shot to make things interesting!”
@29
I don’t think you can entirely look at Fredi for this. Heyward and Uggla are about 80-100 points below what they “should” be at OBP wise.
When two players who collectively make up about 20% of the team’s PA’s are down 100 points in OBP, that will pretty quickly give you the kind of team OBP drop we’ve seen.
If those two dudes were having normal seasons for them, then we’re probably in the top 5 in OBP.
I hate Fredi just as much as the next guy, but I don’t really think this OBP issue is his doing, and it’s definitely not Wren’s.
fjrabon @12
Thanks for making the point I was going to make. As soon as I read this post, I was thinking that the team as a whole is hitting more poorly this year than last, and that stats bear them out:
Yr Avg. OBP
2010 .258 .339
2011 .241 .309
That’s a 17-point drop in batting average from last year, which is over half of the 30-point drop in OBP from 2010 to 2011; if they were hitting for the same average as last year (.258) that would bring the team OBP up to .326, good for 5th in the NL.
Should we be worried that the team doesn’t focus on OBP as much as we think they should? Definitely. I don’t know that we need to be reading a lot into an anonymous quote that Buster Olney tweeted, though.
What I would be more interested in is an analysis of how many more outs Fredi has cost us this year compared to Bobby last year with the amount of sac bunts and caught stealings; that’s something you can directly pin on the manager, which is inexcusable.
And I hope that we don’t get Pence, especially if it takes a package like the Phillies are offering. It’s pretty clear he wouldn’t play a great center field (and I know, a sack of potatoes would be an improvement over McLouth/Schafer), and a career OBP of .340 is OK, but not worth giving up 2+ quality prospects for.
@28
Amazes me too. How do you not detect sarcasm when someone says a stat matters “when watching most networks”?
Then lets trade for Francoeur?
@32
If you spend any time on the AJC or talking chop blogs, it’s hard to tell, because people there often say things similar completely earnestly.
I say we blow this shit wide open. Heyward to LF/RF, Pence to LF/RF, Crisp to CF. Odarp to SS. Koji Uehara to the ‘pen. Call up that Pastornicky kid to back up SS. Bench/Trade/Cut/TieConcreteBlocksToTheirFeetAndDumpThemInTheAtlanticOcean: Sea Bass, McLouth, Schafer, Proctor.
Boom. Someone give FW my digits.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Quentin#Atlanta_Braves
god bless wikipedia.
OT: But it is worth updating George Sherrill’s based on last night’s performance. If I recall, he K’d all 4 LHBs he saw and walked and gave up a HR to the two RHB.
For 2011, his FIP/xFIP are:
0.50/0.49 v LHB (#1 in baseball by far)
6.06/5.61 v RHB (about 1 run worse than Proctor)
So if you see Sherrill in against a RHB that isn’t at the bottom of the order, isn’t in low leverage, where there are any runners on base, and isn’t followed by 1 or more LHBs, you should be very concerned. Proctor (!) is the better option there.
He’s struck out 42.9% of LHB he’s faced and walked 1 (1.4%). He’s struck out 10% and walked 15% of RHB. Essentially, he becomes Kimbrel against LHB.
I went back several years and couldn’t find any reliever with a better FIP than 2011 Sherrill v LHB, so he’s currently on pace for one of the best LOOGY seasons ever. Unfortunately, he’s faced far too many RHB.
I guess this is a good time to reveal a hidden gem I found in a Bowman story last week. Fredi Gee-whiz was asked about Sea Bass:
“He’s streaky. But, really, what he gives us offensively, for me, watching him for a lot of years, is a plus,” Fredi Gonzalez said. “Whatever those numbers are offensively, you can add another 50 points to the batting average, another 25 RBIs by what he stops defensively.”
You catch that? Fredi IS a stats man!!! Huzzah! He evaluates offensive production based on average and RBIs, and as an 8 year old once said to me: “so aren’t RBIs based on how many men are on base?” If only there were a way to somehow combine a player’s defensive attributes with offensive production, giving a specific number of wins that player was able to produce over, say, a replacement player. If it were possible to do that, that would be excellent! But it’s not, so anyone that thinks they have a “quantitative analysis” of a player is most likely a witch, and should be burned as such.
Sorry to all the trollers who think OBP is more important than average or RBIs, but I think Fredi has this one covered. After all, Sea Bass is flailing his way to a far better season than Heyward. Just compare:
AGon- .230, 33 RBIs (.280, 58 RBIs)
Heyward- .223, 29 RBIs
Not to mention that stinker out in right field only makes routine plays. Pfft, even UZR ranks him below replacement level this year. Wait, what’s a UZR and why do I know that? This CAC blog is really getting to me, now I’m talking about witchcraft! I need to get back to the bleacher report before its too late!
@35
hard to tell how serious you are, but I don’t really think we’d want to see the Prado SS work in progress in the middle of a pennant race. Especially not when Lowe, Hudson and Jair Maddux are pitching.
No way in hell do I offer a package that even remotely rivals what it’s being said the Phils are willing to offer for a completely average guy like Pence. It’d be like what we did for McLouth, except paying 1983742987 times more than we did in the trade for him.
Pastornicky needs to play every single day at AA so that he’s ready as fast as possible, he won’t get that way backing up Prado in ATL.
last post meant to say AAA for Pastornicky, obviously
@danthecone,
Boosh.
Sarcasm does not translate well over text. My sarcasm meter has been off the charts ever since I’ve heard/seen stupid people talk seriously about really moronic topics.
If you saw the sarcasm, bravo. I figured it might be trolling, and I said so. However, if you say that you honestly can tell whether someone is being serious or not when there are people saying, with a straight face no less, that Heyward should be demoted/platooned, then I’d say you’re lying.
Please, God, let FW be playing a sick game of poker with the ‘Stros: “Oh, you like this piece, but it’s not enough for franchisey Pence? (listens) I know, I know, you’ve got to save face. I get it, buddy. (pauses) This is a really nice piece, though, isn’t it? (listens) Yeah, we think so, too. We’ve just got so many of them, you know? I mean, I’d love to share — this is almost embarrassing. (nods, listens) Look, I really want to help you out . . . what about that other guy, this Michael Bourn character? Is he available?”
Pence has a career .339 OBP, which is resolutely average. Thus, any statement about the Braves interest, or lack thereof, in OBP is immaterial to their level of interest in Hunter Pence.
More from Buster: There continues to be zero enthusiasm within Atl org. about giving up any of the core 4 pitching prospects-Teheran, Vizcaino, Minor, Delgado… Braves view those four guys as a hugely important part of their future; I seriously doubt they would move them for any available player.
Then confirms that they feel the same about Beachy. This is HUGELY comforting.
Also from Buster: Braves view those four guys as a hugely important part of their future; I seriously doubt they would move them for any available player.
The only reason I can think of for holding on to all four of these guys is that Frank Wren wants to unveil the worlds first 7 man rotation in the next year or two. Hanson, Jurjjens, Beachy, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Minor. Or if one of the 2nd tier prospects pans out an 8 man rotation where two starters split the game in half and JV or CK finishes the 9th?
@46
At least one and most likely two of those guys won’t make it. Viz will probably end up in the pen. The issue is you don’t know which two won’t make it. If we can assemble a completely homegrown staff that is lights out, all making like 400K to a couple mill, imagine the resources we will have to go out and get big time FA’s who’ll make Hunter Pence look like a chump.
Key to winning with a limited budget in baseball is homegrown pitching. If you have to pay FA pitchers, you overpay for pitching and then are stuck with anemic lineups because you have no money left.
That’s kind of why we are the situation we are in now. We had to overpay for FA pitchers because the homeboy upstairs left our pitching staff a decimated mess for Wren to clean up. Wren HAD TO overpay for Lowe, because at the time we didn’t have anything.
Also, no way in hell is Jurrjens a Braves past his last arb season, if that long. We’re not resigning him.
Hanson’s probably gone too, though the org may pony up the $$ for him.