Report: Braves Don’t Find as Much Value in OBP
July 29, 2011 at 9:04 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Buster Olney reported this in a tweet about an hour ago, in reference to the Braves’ run at Hunter Pence:
Observation from an NL official about the Braves’ interest in Hunter Pence: “They don’t value on-base percentage as much as other teams do.”
As a saber-slanted Braves blog, it would be near blasphemy for us not to touch on this statement. Here are a few quick numbers on this.
Braves in 2010: .339 OBP (1st in NL), 738 runs (5th in NL)
Braves in 2011: .309 OBP (13th in NL), 428 runs (9th in NL)
The Braves are on pace to score 654 runs this year, which would be one less than the San Diego Padres (.317 OBP) and Washington Nationals (.318 OBP) did last year. While there are certainly other factors, which is evident by the Braves’ rank in OBP and runs in each season, nothing attributes to run scoring as much as getting on base.
Not valuing outs is just absolutely mind-boggling. You get 27 of them per game, each should be treated as somewhat sacred. You simply are not going to score many runs if you do not get on base. The Braves are hitting for a lot more power this year than last year, which has helped them maintain at least respectable run scoring totals, but it is literally impossible to state that they would not have more if they got on base more.
It is quite odd, because one would have assumed last year’s performance in terms of on base totals and run scoring would lead the team to value OBP even more than they did previously, but that is apparently not close to true.
I have had problems with players’ and coaches’ statements in the past. Fredi not knowing Schafer’s OBP is considerably lower than McLouth’s, and Francoeur asking that if OBP was so important then why isn’t it on the scoreboard are two great examples of that. But I seldom get aggravated by reports about the front office’s philosophies. Of course, this is just one NL official speaking, so maybe Wren and Co. value it more than this anonymous official feels, but it is a bit disconcerting to think that this is what competitors think of the franchise.
But hey, if the Braves don’t think OBP is that important, hopefully they go for B.J. Upton (.309) rather than Hunter Pence (.356).
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@46: If you had the depth to do it, why the hell would you need Scott Proctor, Scott Linebrink or George Sherill? Would be a rather revolutionary idea and probably not used.
@45/KJ: 100% agree. There are too many ways to upgrade the team without giving up Beachy or the Big 4.
@46/Eric: There are plenty of scenarios where the depth comes into play: (1) Vizcaino to the BP, (2) trade Lowe, JJ or both, (3) injuries, (4) not all of them pan out.
If they all pan out and the Braves break camp with 8 MLB-level starters and the “price” paid for that luxury is passing on Hunter Pence, I’ll take that bargain any time. There will be a market for them.
To me, the perfect use of this pitching depth is to sell high on JJ in the offseason.
@39
Only slightly serious. I just don’t understand the rumors flying for corner outfielders when we’ve got Prado and Heyward there. I don’t like them moving players around the diamond on defense. I think Prado’s suffering a little because of that. Stick him LF and leave him there. Or stick him at third and leave him there until Chipper’s good to go. I feel like he’s switching positions every three games.
It SEEMS that people are making this more complicated than it needs to be. To me the need is the same as it’s been all season:
Another shutdown RH for the bullpen and a RH CF backup with power (or starter). Fucking simple.
Koji Uehara to ‘pen would be perfect. For me, I’ll take a CF mix of Schafer, McLouth and Andruw Jones.
And 6+ more years of Minor, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino.
@50
While I don’t really think it’s been a detriment to Martin’s defense, I think moving him much more definitely would, especially to SS.
I agree, Uehara or Rauch would be awesome. THough I think there’s no urgency there since there are so many RH RP’s available.
I really think we’ll end up with one of Upton/Byrd/Reed Johnson, been saying that all along.
Wow guys calm down a bit, that was mostly designed as a joke. My point is that if we can trade one of them to get a quality CF/Lead off type such as Crisp or Bourn it is probably worth it, especially since neither of them would cost us more than Minor, who I am more than willing to give up because while I do think he is a solid #3 starter the addition of Gilmartin definitely makes him redundant.
I agree though, we should sell high on JJ. I have a great deal of respect for his skill and really do not think he is over performing his level, yes i know he is over performing his peripheries but I see a lot of Greg Maddux in him as far as ability to locate, and ability to change speeds. He won’t come close to Mad dog of course but I think, long term he has the ability to extend his career because he has a better mechanical motion than Hanson.
I definitely see Hanson as a right handed version of Cliff Lee though, which is why I think we really should pony up the dough for him when the time comes. He doesn’t throw the smoke the organization sold us on but he’s definitely got that big over top curve, a solid change, a good slider and he can dial it up to 95 if need be.
You think if we start a petition to include OBP on the Ted’s scoreboard and win, Fredi will start paying attention?
Maybe get someone to streak the field and run up to Fredi with a list of his players’ OBPs? Talking dog? How long would it really take to teach the dog how to say “sub-three hundred”?
@52
He doesn’t “throw the smoke” because he changed his delivery to give him better control and downward movement. Peter did a study on it somewhere a while back. He’s much more over the top now, which causes his pitches to locate more effectively east/west and get a nice downward movment on both his fastball and breaking pitches, whereas before his movement was more lateral.
isn’t OBP actually on the Ted’s scoreboard?
According to Frenchy it’s not. And his word is gospel.
It at least used to be: http://farm1.static.flickr.com/190/483938667_b0fa60e2da.jpg
Though they may of changed it to reflect the Frenchy gospel.
@ 54,
Did not know that, thanks for the heads up. I didn’t start reading this blog until last season, and even then I wasn’t reading daily. I am this year though, CAC, you guys do a great job by the way.
57/
I’m sure it actually did display it, though sadly i’ve never been to the Ted. (i live in brooklyn, ny).
Also, from the picture.. Willy Aybar batting leadoff haha. I guess that was right before he disappeared into crystal meth hiatus.
@52: Coco Crisp is not a leadoff hitter. He also would ABSOLUTELY not cost a prospect as good as Minor/Delgado. Hoover/Oberholtzer is more reasonable – and even with one of those two, I think the A’s win the trade. I do hope that Wren gets Crisp, though.
Bourn is a different story. I’d be totally ok with Minor or Delgado for Bourn. When I say I’m hugely reassured by Wren not wanting to trade any of the 4, that’s in the context of the Pence/Quentin rumors. If there was some more serious discussion of Bourn/Upton/Span, I’d feel differently.
Ben,
I think the NL observer was just “observant.” No question that the Braves value obp less than many other clubs. I do not think it is VERY less important than to other clubs, but they look for more “well rounded” ball players (not Adam Dunn or someone that can’t play a position, but has a good obp). Actually, in the last 4 years or so I think they have begun to value it more (Conrad, Glaus).
So, even assuming it was a fair evaluation from outside, it doesn’t change anything we didn’t already know.
Maybe the full quote was “They don’t value on-base percentage as much as other teams do, because they value wOBA more.”
I’m going to guess, no.
KJ, I agree on Crisp completely, though by the standard we have been throwing out there at lead off on a nightly basis he would probably be an upgrade. I like Schaffer a lot and I really do enjoy watching him play and obviously have not given up on him yet but we’re in a pennant race right now and he might not even make our post season roster anyway. I would say give him a shot next year in ST to win the job, he can start fresh and healthy for a change. But with Crisp at lead off and Prado’s ability to control the bat from the 2 spot I could see a lot of successful hit and runs at the top of the order with those two.
I agree on Bourn, he would be a terrific addition, or Bourjos, though I have never seen him play the numbers do add up. I would be more ok giving up Minor than Delgado because of the Gilmartin pick, I know they are very similar but I think Gilmartin projects a little better than Minor does. Less polished but from most indications I have read they are already really close.
This question has been asked a few times without answer. Is there any chance that FW could be looking to play Pence in center?
@64, I agree, I have seen that a couple of times as well and I don’t think I have seen answer. If we do get Pence I would much rather see him in CF if need be than Heyward, Pence seems a lot more durable and equally athletic.
From the comments at MLBTR:
Jayson Stark just reported on 97.5 that the Phillies and Astros are looking for a three team deal.
Phillies offered Domonic Brown, but the Astros don’t like him. The Astros would rather trade Domonic Brown to another team.
Stark is saying the Phillies are the last team standing. The Braves offered a huge package but were shot down. The Braves are moving on.
I’d think that, if it comes down to it, the Braves will probably stand pat with the OF that is there. The Astros GM is pretty much a lame duck and he needs a huge splash. Pence would not make the ball club better for the cost that it takes to bring him to the ATL.
If anything, we can all hope that the Braves land a decent RH reliever so that Proctor gets DFA.
@67
At the very least I think they’d go for a RH guy that can platoon with Schaf in center (though I wish it was McLouth said RH was platooning with, but I digress)
I also think that Viz and/or Teheran will be up in the Atlanta pen now that it’s getting to the time of year when we’d be cutting back their innings anyway.
The thing that should make you question the Braves commitment to OBP is the fact that they hired Larry Parish as the hitting coach with his ultra-aggressive approach. I am not a fan of the results that I have seen from that hire.
These 3-team deals have me thinking John Mayberry for Beachy/Minor, straight up. Then the Phils can flip their bounty for Pence. I’m inclined to think Beachy, but from everything I’ve read, he projects higher than Minor. Just a thought.
Then we unload some combo of McLouth/Schafer/second-tier prospect for Heath Bell, and we’re pretty set.
Oh yeah, Proctor DFA.
Everybody wins.
Why would the Padres want McLouth?
@70 – Really? I don’t think the Phils are going to make a trade to make the Braves better or vis-a-vis.
@70 – I love how people always talk about trading players that the Braves don’t want. Why would anyone else want players that we think suck? This is not a case of one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Heath Bell has a lot more value than that.
@71, same reason they want all their OFers, platoon. He obviously wouldn’t be the centerpiece, so I counter with another question, why would we still want him if someone else would take him?
@72, I’m half-joking, but much stranger things have happened. If the Phils have their judgement clouded with Pence, let ‘em have him for LF. They still have Victorino. They could plausibly believe they’re getting a fair–or better–deal, if they think adding Pence makes a bigger difference Mayberry. It’s all perspective really. I seriously doubt this would happen, but the talk of a third team got me to thinking. And gosh darn it, it just feels right.
@73, agreed, wishful thinking.
Rosenthal on the MLB Network just said one of the reasons that the Pence deal is taking so long is that the Astros are trying to move Bourn (and some others), too, and that’s complicating all their potential deals. I wish the Braves were smart enough to be going after him instead of Pence, but…well, let’s say I have my doubts.
Also mentioned the Twins are trying to move Span…I know some have mentioned him…no mention of the Braves being interested in him, though.
With regard to many comments here, I don’t think Upton or Crips really add that much. While Crisp is a switch hitter, his slash of .235/.307/.322 and LH pitching is pretty bad and doesn’t seem to resolve our exposure to LHP. Definitely not worth one of our top tier pitching prospects.
After listening to the group on the MLB Network talk about the current deal situation…it sure sounds like the Phillies (luckily for the Braves, I think) have gotten it into their heads that Pence is gonna be a Phillie, come hell or high water. Here’s hoping they vastly overpay for him. Maybe the Astros will be so fat and happy from that deal, that they’ll take less for Bourn (I know, I know…wishful thinking).
Upton provides better defense that we currently have in CF and is a right handed bat.
His BABIP is at a career low, despite his LD% being the highest it’s been since 2008, he is a very good baserunner and has a career .371 OBP against left handers.
I think he adds quite a bit, while not taking anything off the table the way Pence would with regards benching Heyward.
@70 – I love how people always talk about trading players that the Braves don’t want. Why would anyone else want players that we think suck? This is not a case of one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
Clearly you’ve never played MLB The Show. I was playing in Franchise Mode, and the Padres offered me Mike Adams and Tim Stouffer for Derek Lowe.
I think we move Prado to third for the rest of the season and put Hinske in Left. McClouth in CF, Schaeffer is the fourth outfielder. Chipper can be the first bat off the bench, and, if need be, the DH. I love Chipper, and he’s a HOF, but anyone who counts on him to stay healthy is dreaming. The lineup needs stability, and that won’t happen when Chipper gets hurt everytime he runs hard and Prado has to be moved all over the field.
I wouldn’t trade for another bat, simply because I don’t think the return is worth what you would be giving up. I don’t see the logic in making a move NOW, when a better deal can be done in the offseason when you could sell high on Jurrjens. The Braves have a lot of young talent and are set to be a contender for a long time, barring major injury. Take a shot with what you have now, get better in the offseason when you have more flexibility and resources.
The Braves can match anyone’s pitching in the playoffs, which is half the battle. You can win a championship with strong pitching and a shaky offense.
The guy Olney quoted said: “They don’t value on-base percentage AS MUCH AS OTHER TEAMS DO.” While I am not at all trying to make an argument against OBP (that would be stupid), I do think that statement might be a good thing.
If the Braves are unwilling to pay ridiculous sums for marginally improved OBPs, we may be able to take advantage of market inefficiencies on other important player characteristics. For example, with the rest of the league focused on BJ Upton’s low OBP for the past 3 years, the Braves might be able to acquire him for cheaper than we would if the rest of the league wasn’t so obsessed with OBP.
79/
You’re seriously proposing starting Eric Hinske over Chipper Jones?
@82: Do you think Chipper can play left field better than Hinske?
79…cant tell if trolling or just very very stupid
I’m not bashing Chipper. He’s one of the greatest Braves of all time, and he’s a HOFer. But part of the problem with the lineup is that you can’t count on him to stay healthy. I think Prado would be better defensively if he only had to worry about playing one position. If Chipper could stay healthy, and could handle playing left field, of course I’d play him over Hinske. I’m just stating an opinion.
I would not compare jair to maddux, although i get where that comes from. Maddux’s Career ERA was pretty much in line with his peripheral numbers. Glavine is more the comp in terms of outperforming the peripherals. For whatever reason, glavine and jair both consistently did so. Whether that was pitching smarts, defense, or luck, who knows? Glavine showed he could do it over a very large career sample size. Whether jair is also special in that glavine-ish way obviously remains to be seen. Jair could end up being one of those guys who mostly, but not always, is better than his stuff or peripherals suggest. So when he regresses to the mean, his ERA does not have to tumble all the way up to his FIP. It can tumble all the way up to 40 points below his FIP. Obviously, sub 2 ERA aint sustainable when the FIP is between 3.5 and 4, but an ERA between 3 and 3.5 may be sustainable when the FIP us between 3.5 and 4, as Glavine showed during his career
83: No, but Chipper is passable at 3B and a better hitter than Hinske.
You write that “[t]he lineup needs stability.” Why? Is there any evidence for the proposition that shuttling a player between different non-premium defensive positions has a negative impact on his offensive or defensive production? Is there any evidence that such an effect on Martin Prado would be of a larger magnitude than the performance gap between Chipper Jones and Eric Hinske?
Not trolling. Stating an opinion. Whatever.
Nate just landed on the DL.
Jose Constanza up.
Braves are dropping by the game. If we are lucky, Proctor is next in line.
86: I’m thinking defensively. Where Prado’s playing shouldn’t affect how he’s hitting. I’m no expert, but I would think that how you approach playing defense at third is different from how you play defense in LF.
Look, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I’m just saying that I’d rather have Chipper play less and last the rest of the season rather than have him suffer a major injury and lose him completely. It’s not a question of his ability. He can’t stay healthy anymore.
@ #88…is Constanza the guy who actually seems to know what OBP is and has a fairly high one?
Proctor will never get hurt. The fact that he’s on a major league roster is proof he’s the luckiest man ever to put on a uniform.
@88
Just saw that. Something happen last night? Would be a great time to pony up Minor and someone else for Pence, Bourn, Upton… Someone…
Braves just called up Constanza, made him the CF, and are batting him lead-off (!!!!) (McLouth DL). .332 wOBA in AAA. What the hell is there to say at this point?
Really does prove my ongoing theory that Fredi manages players according to mental categories. Constanza is a speedy CF – therefore he leads off.
@81
I agree. The idea isn’t to try to outbid everyone for the most valuable assets. That’s where winners curse comes from, right? The idea is to receive more value than paid out. Plus, the quote, as I understand it, did not remotely say that the Braves do not value obp. Inferring that from the quote seems a little like failed logic.
If Ruben Amaro really will give up everything that is rumored, then combining that with the contracts he’s given out, I have to believe his GM strategies are based on Inca calculations that the world will end next year.
“Really does prove my ongoing theory that Fredi manages players according to mental categories. Constanza is a speedy CF – therefore he leads off.”
@ #92…well, here’s hoping Constanza comes in red hot and burns his image into Fredi’s brain as the “speedy leadoff guy who plays CF” then…anything to get rid of the Shafer-philia.