Transaction Analysis: Bourn to run
July 31, 2011 at 10:10 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Acquired OF Michael Bourn from the Houston Astros for OF Jordan Schafer, RHP Paul Clemens, LHP Brett Oberholtzer, and RHP Juan Abreu.
After all the somewhat frightening talk, Frank Wren makes his big move and it’s a better one than I could have imagined him making.
Michael Bourn is, in a few words, a perfect fit for Atlanta. He upgrades the offense and defense at a position where the Braves haven’t gotten much from all year. Braves center fielders have hit .231/.326/.323 this season. Michael Bourn owns a career .271/.338/.359 line, is batting .303/.363/.403 this season, and .279/.348/.373 over the past three years. Any way you slice it, Bourn is a huge boost to the team’s offense in terms of hitting.
However, his hitting abilities pale in comparison to the other things he brings to the table. Over the past three years, Bourn has stolen 148 bases in 177 attempts (83.6% success rate), leading the league in steals each year. Over that same span, he leads the league in Fangraphs’ baserunning metric, having provided 14.7 runs on the base paths–this doesn’t include the 148/177 stolen bases. All told, Bourn has been, on average, worth about +15 offensive runs with his legs alone over the past three years. This makes sense, he’s one of the two or three players in major league baseball with pure 80 speed and the Astros let him play through his struggles in order to become a legitimate weapon on the base paths.
And then there’s Bourn’s fielding. As you may have guessed, 80 speed plays very well in center field. His arm is merely average, but you’ll live with it from a guy who can cover the type of ground Bourn does. All told, Bourn is about a +10 fielder in center–well better than Jordan Schafer and several wins better than Nate McLouth. The Braves have gotten average-at-best defense in center field all year.
So, we have a +12 offensive player and a +10 defensive player. As you know, center field is a premium position, and gets a +2.5 positional adjustment. Add +20 for replacement level, and Bourn is, roughly, a +4.5 win player.
Michael Bourn is in his second year of arbitration, making $4.4 million. He has about $1.45 million remaining on his contract and the Astros reportedly sent close to but less than $1 million to the Braves in the deal. That leaves Atlanta with what we’ll call a $600,000 hook for 2011. Bourn remains under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2012 and is likely to make ~$8-$9 million via the arbitration process.
So, if we have a good idea of how much he’s worth and how much he’s going to make, we can make a pretty good estimate of his trade value:
In return the Astros get Jordan Schafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens, and Juan Abreu. Schafer is a center fielder who the club had been playing every day and batting leadoff because they were desperate for anything other than Nate McLouth. Or, I don’t really know why, but he’s not a real MLB contributor at this point. He has big league tools, but he’s now 24 years old and hasn’t shown the same power since the wrist injury that made him a top prospect at the end of this past decade. He also comes with a suitcase full of make-up issues. The Braves have been cordial about him all this time, saying he’s matured et cetera. It may be true or it may be posturing, but I’m glad they’re rid of him.
Juan Abreu is a 26-year old, major-league ready reliever with a big fastball and awful control. He’ll likely get a spot in the Astros bullpen immediately and was looking at getting one in Atlanta’s in September. The Astros are tasked with improving his control to the point where he can be an effective, late-innings reliever, otherwise they’re looking at another Manny Acosta.
The big pieces of the return for Houston are Oberholtzer and Clemens, two starters having fine years at AA. Oberholtzer is a command lefty with an 88-91 MPH fastball and a couple of decent offspeed pitches. He fields the position well and can even hit a little bit, and the sum of his abilities give him a good chance of eventually pitching at the back of a big-league rotation. Clemens I wrote off as a NP when I saw him in Rome in 2009, but he’s exploded on the prospect scene out of nowhere in 2011 thanks to his fastball jumping into the mid-90′s. He’s basically a fastball specialist, throwing both a 2-seamer and 4-seamer, but mixes in a couple of offspeed pitches that could eventually be average or better. If his velocity jump holds and he improves other facets of his game, Clemens could eventually surface as a solid, mid-rotation starter.
Ninteen days ago Ben and I ranked Oberholtzer as the organization’s 9th best prospect, Clemens the 10th, and Abreu the 20th. If we call Clemens and Oberholtzer “B” prospects (they were both “C’s” before the season, their stock has improved), the pair is worth ~$17 million. Abreu, a 26 year old grade C pitcher, is worth $1.75 million, and Schafer we’ll call a grade C hitter worth $0.6 million. This brings the value of the package to ~$19.4 million.
When you consider, for example, that Hunter Pence was traded for ~$55 million worth of prospects, this deal looks really good. Also making the deal look better is Atlanta’s replacement level in center field and the fact that they figure to be contenders both years Bourn is under team control, driving up the marginal value of the wins.
Not only is Bourn a perfect fit for Atlanta, he came at a very reasonable price and one that allowed the Braves to keep their top 8 or so prospects. This is an extremely good deal for Atlanta. Be happy, be ecstatic. The Braves just got a whole lot better.
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I like it. Seems like a fairly even trade to me
Just jizzed…
Hes 5th in the NL in WAR for batters. Thank you Frank.
Great move, glad we held out until now. I love it.
Thank goodness. Finally a complete lineup with a real leadoff hitter. Defense improves as well. Love it. Time to get to work and catch the damn Phillies and put some separation between us and the other Wild Card teams.
I am very, very excited over this.
Don’t we effectively have to demote Julio Lugo now? I’m guessing Bourn won’t make it to Atlanta to start, so Constanza needs to stay for one more day.
Bourn would have to be on a plane within the hour to make it on time…which is possible, but not likely. But yeah, went from bottom of the league in speed, to middle of the pack in 1 fell swoop. Pretty good jump if you ask me.
I’d find it extremely difficult for Fredi to screw up the lineup now. But where there is an idiot….there is a way!
Have to like this, right? Figure 350 OBP guy – that’s already 3rd on the team. And to only give up Schafer and no top ten prospects? Probably had to agree to drop the Wade-Philly collusion charge or something.
This deal very nearly makes up for dealing Escobar for Gonzo. Bless you Wren.
The best part? The Asstros are PAYING US for Jordan Schaefer. I feel like it’s Christmas.
1 Bourne
2 Prado
3 Chipper
4 McCann
5 Uggla
6 Freeman
7 Heyward
8 Gonzales
9 Pitcher
Oh yeah!
batting order time? who’s hitting second?
I like the look of this:
1. Bourn (L)
2. Prado (R)
3. Chipper (S)
4. McCann (L)
5. Freeman (L)
6. Uggla (R)
7. Heyward (L)
8. Gonzalez
@10 / chriti04
ah dude. you forgot about #FrediLogic. McCann and Freeman can’t possibly hit next to each.
And then all the Xtacles say,
“Boosh! Boosh! Boosh! Boosh!”
Lineup for now doesn’t change, just a sub of Bourn for X current CF:
CF Bourn
3B Prado
1B Freeman
2B Uggla
LF Hinske
C Ross
RF Heyward
SS Gonzalez
Healthy lineup doesn’t change much either:
CF Bourn
LF Prado
3B Chipper
C Mac
1B Freeman/2B Uggla(depends if you still want L/R/L/R splits)
1B Freeman/2B Uggla(same as above)
RF Heyward
SS Gonzalez
Now, if Heyward figures out hitting again…that lineup only has 1 hole…and it’s Gonzo.
Only concern I have is that I don’t see where this helps us against LHP much. I looked at his career split line and against the top 17 LHP (by PA) he has faced his line is like 50 hits in 304 PA ~ .160 average.
THe lineup really starts to come together now.. get everyone healthy, and we have a World Series team.
1. Bourn, CF
2. Prado, LF
3. Chipper, 3B
4. McCann, C
5. Uggs, 2B
6. Freeman, 1B
7. Gonzo, SS
8. Heyward, RF
Who would have thought Heyward would be batting 7th or 8th, he’s a 4/5 hole for some teams. Needs to fix the ginormous hole in his swing, and fast. .215 avg. won’t cut it.
10/ I had the exact same lineup but with Uggla and Freeman switched. Facing righties, Chipper would hit left giving us 3 lefties in a row.
1. Bourn (L)
2. Prado (R)
3. Chipper (S)
4. McCann (L)
5. Freeman (L)
6. Uggla (R)
7. Heyward (L)
8. Gonzalez
Holy crap. That is boner inducing.
Assuming everyone is healthy
Bourn
Prado
Chipper
Mac
Freeman
Uggla
Heyward
Seabass
Pitcher
Bourn probably won’t start – Fredi’s “not a number guy” and he might “feel like Bourn is not on base very much.”
ESPN still hasn’t reported on this, shamble.
Yeah I got a feeling with a healthy team, Fredi sticks with the lefty/righty thing and hits Heyward 8th. His OBP is about to skyrocket.
Bourn doesn’t bat 8th?
It would remove the temptation Fredi has to utilize Prado’s bunting abilities to “move Bourn up 90 feet.”
@15,
Doesn’t matter that there are three lefties in a row against righties. If the other team brings in a left-handed reliever, Chipper will hit from the right side.
@14,
Gonzalez in front of Heyward? Cmon now.
Shit the bed!!! Fantastic news, great work to fervent man a lot of us wanted and we get rid of JS into the bargain. They can shove pence where the sun doesn’t shine and we hold onto all the pitching which is a bonus. Trade JJ in the close season and all is well. Brian is having a rest so ge will be raring to go for the run in and if chipper can manage not to snap in half we are well set and even our muppet manager will struggle to fuck the job up.
@20,
Agreed, but I don’t know who is worse lately. Ok, yea its still Gonzo.
20/ good point.
Still cant believe FW pulled this off with out giving up one of the big 4.
and the heyward bashing continues on the AJC. i don’t even know why i go to that site…
Got the top available leadoff man on the market, didn’t give up any of the Big 4, AND got HOU to pay for the privelege of taking Jordan Schafer’s corpse? I take back everything I said about FW.
@91Bravesfan: Just because batting average is there to be used, it doesn’t mean you should use it. It does suck that his wOBA is at .313 but it’s not like he’s doing all that much worse than a couple other lineup regulars. And showing as to why Heyward is much better is to look at his BABIP which is about 40-50 points lower than it should be.
Sorry for the spelling – I- phone predictive text strikes again.
On another subject..
If all 5 starters are healthy, and we get into the NLCS and, or WS..
Which starter is out? A great problem to have no less. Lowe? Beachy? When they both are on, they are dominant. Obviously Lowe has great record in the post season.
I’m not the biggest FW fan in the world, but you have to give him props for this trade. Didn’t give up any of our top 4 pitching prospects and addressed four major needs – lead off hitter, high OPB guy, speed, and CF. Much better fit than Pence. I’m very happy with this deal.
Awesome! They were asking for two of the big four but take zero and Schafe. Too good.
Now we can go to the lake today and see if we have Willingham and Farnsworth when we get back.
I love watching the games day to day but what we’re really following are management teams and Wren comes through again. He’s really good. So glad he didn’t overpay for Beltran and Pence!
I think the add of speed is great, but also think we still need a right handed slugger
i love chipper as much as the next guy, but he’s not the best option batting 3rd anymore… i like:
Bourn
Prado
Mac
Uggla
Freeman
Chipper
Heyward
Alex Go.
@Chuck,
That lineup looks beautiful. I fear that Chipper would have to ask to be moved down for it to happen, however.
It makes more sense to hit Heyward eighth than Gonzalez. His OBP is his best skill, he might as well work on it in front of the pitcher.
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. FW is a stud. It’ll be weird having a serious SB threat again. Last time was….Kenny Lofton?
Great move I was Bourn to love it. I have a feeling that the Braves will have a busy August deadline to with trading Lowe for as much cash we can get. Im thinking the Braves October schedule is looking pretty booked right now.
Bourn
Chipper
Mac
Uggla
Freeman
Prado
Heyward
Seabass
@31,
It’s not like Gonzalez is that much better than a pitcher.
Who would you rather have up when McCann/Freeman/Uggla are on base, Heyward or Gonzalez?
Chopoholic,
Furcal?
you all were doubting Frank Wren but he just acquired Micheal Bourn without giving up a top 6 Prospect. hahahah The Dan Uggla deal and now this deal… Frank Wren and the Braves organization knows EXACTLY what they are doing. I love the braves, we have half the payroll of Philly, but we are still giving them a run for their money. GOOOO BRAAAVVVVESSSSS
I’m a Bourn again Wren fan…not really, just so excited about this deal looking for stupid ways to use his name. With everyone healty, Uggs and Frederick on fire…we might actually get some stuff done this year….and yes, in spite of Frediot. Let’s get the brooms out to clean up for the arrival of Mr. Bourn
Love the trade!! Now move over to LF and a RH bat. We haven’t addressed that issue yet! Hinske is not the solution against LH pitching.
Roster construction, the way you guys are doing it, will probably mean literally nothing. The only thing you can say is something that has been said here. Just substitute Bourn for the Outfielder of the Day and keep everything else the same.
Lineup construction has been beaten to death and nothing bores me more than a new opinion on how a team should construct their lineup.