Freddie vs. Jason
August 3, 2011 at 8:52 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
They play for the same team, so this is just about perception than anything of particular value, but this is something I just had to comment on. There are people out there, and you actually may be one of them, that think Freddie Freeman is better and will have a better career than Jason Heyward. I will not say it’s impossible, but it’s kind of like saying the Pirates have a better chance at winning the World Series than the Braves do this season. It’s something that’s possible, but you are going way against the odds.
Coincidentally, Freddie Freeman’s 134 wRC+ (this is what it was entering today, Fangraphs doesn’t update until the following morning) matches Jason Heyward’s 2010 mark. Offense is down this season, so Freeman’s lesser .367 wOBA is of equal value compared to the league as Heyward’s .376 was last year. Freddie has had a tremendous year so far, and is also one of the front runners for Rookie of the Year, but don’t expect him to bat .296 all season.
Freddie does have a solid hit tool, but even guys with 80 hit tools have trouble maintaining balls in play averages as high as .361 — Matt Holliday has exceeded that mark once in his entire career. Freddie will probably end the season with a BABIP around .340 or maybe even .350 considering it’s this high with just two months to go. This should bring his average down to roughly .280, give or take a few points.
In terms of power, Freeman’s ISO of .181 almost matches Heyward’s .179 from last season, but Freeman has remained almost entirely healthy the whole season while Heyward played a substantial part of 2010 with a hand injury. Even this season, Heyward’s ISO of .175 is not far off of Freeman’s mark. Going forward, Heyward has more power potential than Freeman does.
The whole injury thing might be the best argument for Freeman to have a better career than Heyward. If Heyward is going to be constantly nicked up and forced to miss time, Freeman could feasibly be better due to solely being on the field more frequently. I am not ready to definitively say Heyward’s injuries will be constant though.
Defensively, Heyward is better without question. Heyward has been far above average in terms of defensive runs saved in both of his seasons — 10 last year and 8 so far this year — while Freeman has been below average at -6. It is not just DRS that dislikes Freeman’s defense either, UZR has him at -7.2 and it is easy to see the lack of range during the games. Keith Law has also never been much of a fan of Freeman’s defense, but he was also not entirely sold on him as a hitter either — which he was pretty obviously wrong on.
In terms of tools, Heyward has Freeman beat in all five, with Freeman potentially having a better hit tool, but I have never seen a scout state that. In terms of statistics, it is hard to expect Freeman to ever put up a 5 win season, but I suppose it could happen. Heyward is the better player, and it should not really even be much of a debate. Judging and projecting entire careers based off of a few hot months for one player and a few cold ones for another is not the correct way to do it. Look at the tools, look at the approach, and look at the scouts. All lean in favor of Heyward.
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Not arguing with anything said here, really, but I’m not fully sold on UZR’s valuation of 1B defense.
@1 couldn’t agree more, Jason is by far the better talent but, really I’m very satisfied, even delighted, with Freddie. Lets not forget both of them were on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Both of them are great.
But Freeman has way more RBIs this year and a higher batting average!
Yeah, but Frediot doesn’t put Heyward in the starting lineup anymore.
Also, it seems like Freeman has ZERO range going to his right side. I imagine that is something he can get better at though.
@Stender, being on the cover of SI is the best evaluation of talent, just look at how Francoeur turned out!
@1 & 2: agreed, you can use UZR to compare players of the same/similar positions, but trying to compare a RF and 1B by the range they cover seems pretty absurd, even with adjustments
This might have been noted before, but I’m wondering if any parallels are starting to appear b/w Heyward/Freeman and Francoeur/McCann a few years back. You can imagine the two superstar prospects, J-Hey and Frenchie, coming to the Bigs with the weight of the franchise on their shoulders, and just sort of flaming out under the pressure. Meanwhile the less heralded prospects are able to find their game in the majors w/o all the pressure. God forbid that scenario play out. Worries me a little though…
Ok, what stat shows a player’s ability to adjust. Both young, heyward has natural talent, but Freeman seems to make adjustments with ease. Maybe injuries leading to bad habits, but heyward is puzzling this year. I blame Larry Parrish.
@7 and heyward never had to make adjustments last season?
I actually like Freeman’s swing alot. It is very short and compact – reminds me of Utley. He may not get to the power potential of Heyward, but I think that may be the only thing. Heyward needs to be better at making adjustments – he keeps topping the ball and grounding out weakly to the right side. Something he did alot last year as well – just more pronounced this year. And he has to stop trying to pull the outside pitch. I have yet to see an adjustment made to correct these.
What is the real reason that frediot has heyward riding pine?
Heyward has elite potential that will probably result in a few MVP caliber seasons but has yet to have a completely healthy pro season. I imagine freeman will put up similar numbers to McCann, which is very solid but not great at his position. Braves are lucky to have them though.
Once is a fluke
Twice is a coincidence
Three times is a trend
If Heyward struggles with injuries again next season and has to miss extended periods of time (due to injuries, not Fredi’s inability to manage), almost all of my faith of him ever reaching his sky-high potential will be lost.
@6/Brian
There are very few similarities between Francoeur and Heyward. Both were young highly touted RF prospects for the Braves in the past decade, and thats where the comparison ends. Heyward has better tools (probably a push on arm strength) and a MUCH, MUCH better approach at the plate. Francoeur doesn’t have a strike zone and his plan at the plate is always to “swing hard miss hard.” Heyward has a good eye and does a good job of hitting what the pitcher gives him. The only way Heyward “burns out” is if he fails to stay healthy for prolonged periods of time and never reaches his potential. Francoeur exceeded his potential, then regressed into a burn out. Heyward is on a different level
I was one of those people I think freddie will have much higher batting average but heyward would slug 40 in a full healthy season compared to freddie hitting mid 30′s
I don’t know UZR that well but I’m wondering does it account for dug out balls at 1B. I’m positive that Freeman saves about an error per game digging out balls at first. I can’t even remember the last time I witnessed a ball short hop Freeman and get past him.
With that said I agree completely with this article. I’m just now sure how Freeman can be rated negatively on defense. His range may be lacking, but that is why he’s at first and not third. His real attribute is digging out balls.
freddie will continue rising in batting average this year hes gonna sneak the batting title ROY then world series yeaaaaaaaaaaa new chipper mofos
Yeah maybe heyward will impress fredi in his pinch hitting PAs and get promoted from his current position of 4th outfielder
@12 Bring Back Larry Sr.
True, true. He is excellent at picking up his infielders. Great hands.
I don’t know the equation for UZR and I don’t want to look it up, but I’ll wager an educated guess and say that Freeman’s poor range is a big factor in his bad UZR score.
@12: UZR does not, I believe. I’ve read somewhere the the estimate for runs saved by the best picking 1B compared to an average 1B is 6. I think it was on a recent Fangraphs chat.
You expect Freeman to finish with a BA around .280? He would have to hit about .240 for the rest of the year for that to happen. I think a lot of people misunderstand regression in that they believe it is likely that a players numbers will be offset to the point that his numbers come all the way back down to what they would be without “luck”. Instead we can expect freeman to hit around .280 for the rest of the season and end up around .290 or a little lower. Good luck doesnt have to be offset by bad luck (it can be) but instead more likely, average luck. All of the gains Freeman’s made from his high BABIP are his to keep.
don’t get me wrong, i believe all of y’all when you write about advanced stats and player evaluations, so take this not as a criticism but a request for clarification:
it seems that all of the offensive statistics you mentioned were similar for both and based on relatively small sample sizes, but you state that jason will almost definitely have a better career. when you say look at the tools, the approach, and the scouts, what exactly do you mean? aren’t those all subjective appraisals of visual impressions? maybe i don’t understand what goes into those observations, but they don’t seem nearly as precise as other statistical measurements. or is that just the best we have at this point, based on the season and a half/half a season worth of stats we’re working with?
Unless of course you just meant he would hit around .280 from here on out, in which case I misunderstood. My point still stand though as I’ve seen many people make that conclusion.
On June 29th, this site published an article titled “Freddie Freeman, hit streaks and sustainability,” which argued that Freeman couldn’t sustain his hot streak from the month of June. Among other things, this article argued that the five home runs Freeman hit in June was “probably unsustainable.” So what did Freeman do in July? Hit .362 with six home runs in July and win NL Rookie of the Month. The June article posited a likely regression to Freeman “slugging .440 with a sub-.300 on-base average, and a contender just can’t have that from their first baseman.” As of today, Freeman is slugging .477 with an OBP of .363.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Freddie’s average drop back to the .280 range by the end of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit .300, either.
Freddie feels like the better player. Baseball is all about feeling and going with your gut.
At the plate, Freddie looks like the better player. His swing is a thing of beauty compared to Heyward’s, and ought to keep on producing better results than Heyward’s, at least until Heyward 1) eliminates the loop/hitch in his swing, and 2) learns to hit the ball where it is pitched the way that Freddie does.
I don’t have any stats to back it up so please correct I’m wrong. Freeman seems to hit the ball to all parts of the field where as Heyward tends to hit more balls to the right side. I would expect the player that spews the ball around more to have a higher BABIP. Is there a large difference between Freeman’s BABIP this year compared to his minor league years?
@Driver 8
I agree completely. Freddie’s swing looks really nice and he is really taking balls the other way with some nice pop.
Hope Heyward figures it out. Not arguing he’s not the more talented player, he just doesn’t look right at the plate right now, especially compared to Freeman stroking it. Agree that he should play through the slump, unless injured again.
Heyward has the most ridiculous batting “stance” of any Brave on the team. That thing he does with his hands cannot possibly be helping him.
The other thing that Heyward is doing at the plate this year that drives me crazy is bobbing his whole body up and down before the pitch. You want to keep your head still, even before the pitcher begins his delivery. Freeman does a much better job of keeping his head still and down on the ball than Heyward is doing right now.
Um, Freddie Freeman has one of the ugliest swings in baseball. He looks like Charles Barkley does trying to hit a golf ball.
I mean, don’t get me wrong, it’s effective and it’s obviously working for him, but Heyward’s swing is a million times more fluid.
Thats why all these crazy baseball numbers are just too much sometimes. We have to over analyze and beat everything to death with numbers.
NOBODY in their right mind can watch Freddie this year and say that he is a below average defender. He may not have great range, but he will be a regular gold glover, no doubt.
And I am sorry, but Heyward actually comes off a little average to me in the field. Already a handful of errors this year and last. Doesn’t have a great arm for throwing out baserunners. He will get better I am sure of it, but not impressive so far.
haha are you guys serious?? I dont know about you, but im trusting the 250lb black “Athlete” that has smart Dartmouth grad parents that took him everyday to play at East Cobb the best baseball facility in the southeast and maybe the country. Who every scout rated the #1 prospect entering last season. Whos .390+ obp last year was last done by a 20 year old named alex “the poker” roidriguez(i think). Larry Parrish sucks Heyward is the man!
ps jason won the last battle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freddy_vs._Jason
@32
What does Heyward being a “black” athlete have to do with anything?
Jason Heyward’s problem is he needs to stay on the field. He needs to stay healthy and he needs to be in the lineup. I tweeted about this yesterday when I saw he was out of the lineup and Constanza was in it. That is beyond laughable. I mean I was embarrassed for Heyward when I saw that he had been benched for Constanza. Heyward does roll over on the ball a lot of hits weak grounders to second. I assume that is because he trying to pull the ball instead of going the opposite way with it. But the fact remains he needs to be on the field playing. Heyward’s rookie year should have given him enough slack that if he struggled this year, like he has, he would still be in the lineup. I mean Martin Prado isn’t impressing me this year but I don’t see Fredi benching him.
Jason will figure it out.He’s a good kid with all the talent in world.At the very least he’ll be a hundred times better than the last #1 prospect in baseball we had.Anyone remember Mr.Marte?
this is why heyward should not be sitting for jose costanza
Stuff that players do to drive fans crazy does not equate to poor or better performance.
Your eyes are not the proper test of a player’s skill level.
If you guys are going to continue to come to this site and make idiotic arguments, you’re going to be saddened on the day that CAC bans all comments from this site.
Go look something up, learn a bit before you come and spew crap that you just happened to be thinking of.
@31
Actually, tons of people in their right mind can judge Freeman as a below average fielder. That’s because he is a below average fielder.
“”You believe in the back of the baseball card,” Gonzalez said.” – Steven Miller
Another gem from Freddie; thus further confirming the very few stats he glances at.
Jason showed last year that he can adjust. I think he is struggling with a lack of confidence right now and will need the off season to watch some video and make the big time adjustments to his swing. If he can learn to tuck that front shoulder a little longer and stay through the ball (something that he has always preached to himself) he will be fine.
He’s getting beat with fastballs and thats why you see balls down being pounding in the dirt and balls up popped up weakly. When his timing comes back and his swing, which is on a downward plane, starts meeting the ball out front, he’ll be fine.
@36
Thank you. A link to this article must’ve been posted somewhere because I you rarely see a stream of such poorly reasoned arguments on this site.
@40/Silver: Poorly reasoned arguments? That sounds like a pissy attitude to me.
What would even drive you to believe that any of those lines are not good or in line with anything that has been said over and over on this site before?
@38
Fredi would have loved Francouer.
@42 – Could you just picture Fredi at home spreading out all of the latest Topps cards of his players in front of him writing down tomorrow’s lineup?
Joe Charboneau 1980: wOBA .373,
Continuation of Joe:
1981 in minors, 1983 out of baseball.
Many makeup differences from Heyward, but things happen. Durability matters. I think we should be very happy with both.
Interesting story and comparisons. It’s like saying that the race doesn’t always go to the strongest or fastest, but that’s the way to bet.
As noted, the injury factor is most telling. Some athletes, like some people in general are more prone to injury/accidents than the population base as a whole.
Heyward’s swing Is a work of art. You’re crazy if you think otherwise.
Also, lawless at Freddie ever being a “regular gold glover.”
If they were equally healthy for their entire careers, I have no doubt Heyward would far exceed Freeman. But at least so far (very small sample size granted), it looks like Freeman will be healthier far more often than Heyward. Hopefully Jason will go on to show us that 2010 and 2011 were flukes. They both should be excellent players. The Braves and their fans will be very lucky to have them both for years to come.
@31
Freddie’s batted ball range, anticipation, and glove work is clearly below average. His ability to be receiver (pick balls out of the dirt, etc) is top-notch, but that’s also the easiest part of being a 1st baseman. I imagine he’ll improve with time.