Off-Season Guidelines (Updated)
October 27, 2011 at 1:59 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
It’s no secret that I haven’t posted since well before the last day of the regular season. Plain and simple, after I purchased a ticket for Game 163 in St. Louis, I was prepared to attend the Braves playoff berth. Instead, I was refunded my $150 and the only closure that I received was watching my former employer, the Tampa Bay Rays, top the Yankees to claim the AL Wild Card just hours later.
Simply put, it’s been a rough stretch. And it’s not just for me. It’s been hard on all of us. But now that the World Series is over, the Thrashers season off-season is underway.
Over the next five months, we’re going to divulge about the off-season and the approaching 2012 season. But looking ahead, the following off-season is what really matters. The following players are set to become free agents one year from now: Derek Lowe, Chipper Jones (option), Tim Hudson (option), Brian McCann (option), Michael Bourn, Peter Moylan, Matt Diaz and David Ross. That’s essentially every veteran on the team, outside of Dan Uggla. It’s also $50 million off the books in addition to whatever money Bourn fetches in arbitration this off-season.
That being said, the Braves have a chance to make or break their future. It’s a certainty that the Braves will talk with McCann and Bourn about a modified re-buy and possibly Hudson, Moylan, Diaz and Ross.
Then following 2013, Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and Eric O’Flaherty are set to hit free agency.
Needless to say, Frank Wren and crew have plenty on their plate. Here’s to the next few months of uncertainty and hoping that all goes well.
Since comments have been restored, I feel it’s important to lay out the following guidelines for the off-season:
- Fredi Gonzalez isn’t going to be fired.
- Jose Constanza is not a Major League outfielder.
- Nate McLouth is going to become a free agent.
Derek Lowe is not going to be traded.- Chipper Jones is not going to retire.
- The Braves are not going to trade for or sign an all-star short stop. In fact, they probably won’t acquire a short stop at all.
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Good to hear from you Kevin and I think most of us are still shattered.
FW & the rest of the FO could well choose to stand pat and only do minor tickering this off season but that will mean they will have a lot to complete next off season. I hope they don’t leave everything till next off season.
With John Lackey having Tommy John and not available for 12-18 months I wonder would the RSox be tempted to have DLowe back? He will eat innings, he knows Boston and if we were to eat $5m of the $15mil we may be able to free up the other $10m?
What do you think of Carlos Guillen as an option for LF? Also do you think BMac would accept a bit of a home team discount? I am thinking they should offer him something around 5-7 years about $9-11 mil a year. I think that would be reasonable for both sides, especially since BMac has expressed that he doesnt want to leave Atlanta, and I dont think any Braves player/staff/fan want him to leave either.
Honestly, do you say Derek Lowe isn’t going to be traded because you don’t think its possible, or because you don’t want to hear about it all off-season?
Your blog is a great break from all the ignorant blogs that I have to revert to to get my Braves fix, its great to have you back
1 – Correct
2 – Pretty sure he was this August. I really wouldn’t mind if he is on the bench for next year’s team.
3 – Thank God!
4 – I think we are going to have eat $10mil to get it done, but that will free up $5mil for next year, and we could use it. Thinking somewhere like Colorado could be an option.
5 – We don’t need him to or should anyone really want him to retire.
If we are able to trade Lowe and eat $10 million of his contract, and we get $5 million off the books, could we make a serious run at Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes in free agency added with the extra payroll we already have?
Welcome back Kevin. Sorry the first three comments broke your rules.
If we do anything other than release Diaz and eat the last year of his salary I will be disappointed.
@3, Yes. $5 mil should get either of those two players.
Is there any way that the braves could undo one of their worst errors of the past few years and get Elvis Andrus back? It would be costly, but I think the Braves have the prospects and cap room to do it. Gonzalez is getting old and it would be nice to have a very solid middle infielder for the next 5 years.
There basically is no extra money. Without trading Lowe, Prado, or Jurrjens the team has very little money to spend. The big money come off the books next season.
The team needs to figure out who is going to play SS, find someone capable of backing up CF, decide if they want to pickup up Hinske’s option, whether to tender Moylan a contract, decide what to do with Prado, figure out how to fit 10 guys into a five man rotation, etc.
Basically standing pat has a certain appeal. Wren doesn’t want to eat the money to trade Lowe, and no one wants to trade away Prado. But the team is obviously not good enough as presently constituted to really challenge the Phillies.
@5 or why not both!
I think it´s a stretch to think that anyone will pay 5M for Derek Lowe. Sure, he eats innings, but what would a 38 year old get if he hit the open market after putting up a 9-17 record w/ a 5.05 ERA…FOR A WINNING TEAM. To be fair, he probably suffered from some bad luck, but if I´m a GM, I´m not interested in taking on 5M for this guy…
Don’t we have club options on McCann and Hudson for 2013?
T-Bone/12
Updated. Thanks for noticing.
I am politely asking that people not post comments that will once again leave commenting banned. I got way to much work done during the break and my boss is giving me the creepy googly eyes.
Of course, the folks that have wandered back to the comment section haven’t been the gargantuan ignorant masses that were the problem before. So lets keep it clean, intelligent, non-repetitive, and stats related.
Here’s looking forward to a great offseason!
Fredi Gonzalez isn’t going to be fired.
-Had it not been the players like Scott Linebrink, Proctor,
Matt Diaz and Alex Gonzalez, Fredi Gonzalez’ first season as a brave uniform would have been much better. Of course he can’t hide from the fact that he kept using the players even they had been proven enough not to use. But if the team consists of players like Michael Bourn, Gonzalez reputation could turn in a dramatic way.
Jose Constanza is not a Major League outfielder.
I’m pretty sure he is not a major league outfielder.
Aside from the fact he can utilize his speed, he is not proven at all in terms of ideal type of major league hitter.
Nate McLouth is going to become a free agent.
120% true.
Derek Lowe is not going to be traded.
I assume it depending on the Lowe’s performance next April, May and June. If he ends up joining in the rotation after spring training, there could be 3-4 teams that lack of starting rotation. Also teams like Roays or Rays which lack of veteran presence could be lured by Lowe.
Chipper Jones is not going to retire.
130% true.
Personally Chipper’s decision to play one more season surely delay team’s future 1 or 2 years. It’s really ridiculous that this team should depend on another year
on 40 year-old starting 3B.
The Braves are not going to trade for or sign an all-star short stop. In fact, they probably won’t acquire a short stop at all.
Countless articles have already demonstrated that this team has no extra money to pay this off season, which means another disastrous Alex Gonzalez era will last 1 more year.
“The Braves are not going to trade for or sign an all-star short stop. In fact, they probably won’t acquire a short stop at all.
Countless articles have already demonstrated that this team has no extra money to pay this off season, which means another disastrous Alex Gonzalez era will last 1 more year.”
The Marlins have two good SSs in Ramirez and Bonifacio (who just had a career year). Seems like Bonifacio could be had for the right price. He strikes out the same amount as Gonzo, but every other offensive category he came out better. Of course, its hard to say whether his batting success is going to continue.
His fielding statistics are all over the place – pretty good year in 2010, pretty bad year in 2011. Of course, he goes back and forth between the infield/outfield consistently…
So is Emilio a viable every day player, can he be had, is he a fit, is he an upgrade over Alex?
@15R RYJ….
Why would the Rays trade for Lowe. Have you seen their starting pitching? It’s kind of crazy to suggest, actually. Hopefully you meant teams that can afford his salary, or have a real need for starting pitching and accidentally typed in Rays. And as for “veteran presence”, I’m sure James Shields fits that mold for them.
I’m ok with mostly leaving the team where it is. Sure I would love to have a true LF and move Prado to super-utility. Sure I would like to move Lowe for a right handed bat. Sure, I wish we could even consider making a move for a legitimate SS. But I have to feel good about the team for next year even if none of these happen.
IF we can stay healthy, and that’s a huge IF, then I think this team with Bourne for a full year can be a WS contender. Hopefully the coaching staff learned from some mistakes, and nagging injuries to Heyward and Prado don’t resurface. A new approach in the box and a rejuvenated, youthful pitching staff make me excited about next year.
But until then, I’m not stressing the offseason. Wren is exerting more control over the team (hitting coach, despite what FG said), which I believe to be a good thing. As mentioned, the true testament to the organization as a whole will be what happens in the next offseason.
Now it’s time to enjoy some college basketball. I’ve had Cam Newton keeping me afloat during the Braves’ collapse and sustaining me until basketball. Now with the NCAABB season starting in two weeks, I get to watch my UNC boys try to live up to the hype. It’s a promising time to be a sports fan in NC (now living in GA) with Cam lighting it up for the Panthers, UNC basketball a heavy favorite, and the wealth of young talent on the Braves.
This Braves organization has never at all been about making or breaking their future,it has always been a World Series title/October appearance or total disappointment,especially when the Braves have not even won the Fall Classic since 1995–not to mention Braves fans have always been totally spoiled on seeing their Braves win it all or playing October postseason and it’s going to be a total disappointment in Georgia until the Braves take back that Fall Classic crown for the first time since 1995 and we Braves fans will be pulling totally hard for our Braves until that takes place.GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why not Constanza? During his time starting, he was one of the Braves’ best bats and gloves. His speed coupled with Bourn’s allowed the Braves to maintain their success until he was benched. Obviously Constanza might not have prevented the collapse, but his numbers don’t lie, do they?
@20 he isn’t Jason Heyward. Only explanation I got
Constanza is the perfect 25th man on a roster whose remaining bench players tend towards the slow, slugger type. He can come in for defense/rest at all three OF positions, pinch-run, or pinch-hit to start an inning, and appears to have the underlying attributes to do all these things at least passably well. He’s cheap, and is highly unlikely to complain about his role. What’s not to like?
A potential variable to consider: liberty media’s tax advantage from owning the braves expires in early (feb?) 2012. It seems unlikely that they’d sell the braves prior to its expiration, and virtually all of the free-agent signing will have finished by that time anyway, but that, to me, is the most interesting and most potentially impactful storyline of this offseason. The front office has done a nice job of putting together a solid, above average roster with pretty clear financial constraints; being handed a fistful of additional play money from a new win-first owner would open up all sorts of trade possibilities next season and free-agent signings thereafter.
Absolutely agree with all guidelines, Kevin. I like that you got that out of the way.
I think Wren’s offseason is going to consist of the following:
1. Trade JJ to the team that offers the best prospects.
2. Use JJ’s money to sign the best possible SS.
3. Inform Lowe he will be pitching out of the BP.
4. Pray to every god created by man that Heyward bounces back.
In short, the only excitement this offseason will be the rumors of which prospects Wren gets for JJ. I do not count watching Wren pick between several terrible players to fill the SS as exciting in the least.
Constanza has little or no upside. He’s just not a major league caliber player. I would rather bring McLouth back as a fourth outfielder than Constanza. McLouth still has some upside and I can’t imagine that signing him for 2012 would cost that much.
@20 – his numbers never had a chance to lie. The sample size of his “success” is rediculously small. It was his BABIP (among other thigns) that made his scratch-the-surface stats looks decent, including his BA.
“2.Jose Constanza is not a Major League outfielder.”
Take it to heart – give up the dream on this underdog. He has no business being on our opening day roster.
@23 Liberty Media had an agreement with MLB that it would own the team through the 2011 season. That is now expired and Liberty is known for being an investment buyer anyway. They have increased the value of the team while spending less than the competition. Now would be the perfect time for someone like a mark cuban type to come in buy the team pump in some free agent money to go along with the young core and win us a world series and start the next braves dynasty!!!
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2011/03/24/braves-mcguirk-unaware-of-potential-sale-by-liberty-media/
Assuming we sign a free agent outfielder and move Prado to a utility role then either Diaz or Constanaza likely will not even make the roster. Ross and Hinske are still better bench options.
A .333 BABIP is hardly extraordinary for a player of Constanza’s skill set. I also don’t find a .339 OBP to be impossible to replicate, given that he’s posted OBPs of .373 and .361 in AAA the last two seasons. In a league where the average OBP was .319, that has real value.
If the position of this site’s proprietors is that Constanza is not a viable starting outfielder, I would agree. But it strikes me as unimaginative to not see that he has real, positive attributes as a bench player.
I think less is more this offseason, I’d like to see th Braves move JJ for a solid MLB-ready OF. I think Prado would be best served in the super utility/Omar Infante role next year, especially accounting for possible Chipper Injury.
I don’t see there being room on the roster for both Diaz and Hinske.
If you think Constanza is substantially underrated by the writers of this website (that he is in fact a MLB level outfielder), please keep it to yourself. Please don’t cause comments to be turned off again by pointless arguing, alot of good discussion goes on in the comments.
I am also curious to see what Liberty Media is going to do with the team. While I don’t think the Braves need a $120+ million dollar payroll, a little extra would help in bringing in a free agent or investing in the draft and international free agents
Translation of the points listed above: Until the Braves get a real owner, this is what we’ve got. Deal with it.
@33
Good grief. OK, I’ll go back to where a free and full exchange of ideas is valued over fealty to writers who, while talented and intelligent, seem to have trouble with a strongly expressed and adequately defended difference of opinion.
@36
Good luck finding a better site than this, the only for the Constanza shortness is because we have been over it time and time again, and the majority of the Constanza defenders have no idea what they are talking about – and for what its worth, your reasoning ability is a tier above 99% of the Constanza defenders.
Constanza is nothing more than a cheap backup CFer. He can do that just fine in AAA until Bourn gets hurt. There is exactly zero reason to have him on the MLB bench.
And talk about getting a cheap MLB OFer for JJ needs to stop. The teams that will want JJ will be trying to compete for playoff spots in 2012 and 2013. Teams trying to compete for playoff spots use prospects as trade chips, not young players from their MLB roster.
If you want to see the type of deal to expect for JJ, take a look at the trade that sent Marcum to the Brewers.
But, Nick S.,
Can’t you do a “double flip”? That is, get the prospects for JJ and then send them to another team with big holes for a young vet (like we did with Bourn last year).
Plus, I am not convinced that a “strength for strength” trade couldn’t get done. The Cardinals and the Reds seem to have lots of young outfielders (not sure about equalizing for JJ but I like Chris Heisey, right handed, can play survivable center field in an emergency).
Also, I think the Red Sox have a surplus of major league ready outfielders (particularly if they sign an FA OF with their Drew money).
I would just like to say in regards to the Jose Constanza issue, that I agree with CAC in that he not a Major Leaguer, but in fairness, to say he has no upside or potential is ludicrous. Why hasn’t he? Because he’s 28. May I remind you that one Jose Bautista didn’t become the great hitter he is now until his age 30 season. Prior to that, he was AA player in a Major League uniform. Now, I’m not implying that Constanza will become anything close to what Bautista is, but to rule him out entirely is just plain dumb.
Now my question…Instead of suffering thought yet another season of Alex Gonzalez at SS, what are the chances the Frank Wren pulls off a trade or something ridding ourselves of him, and then resigns Jack Wilson? Wilson has very comparable defense to Gonzo’s (which is spectacular in my mind) and can hit better than Gonzo (not much, but enough to make a difference).
I would like for intelligent discussion to take place in the comments, so please continue talking. What I will say though, is that have a realistic mindset when commenting. I’m welcome to reading everyone’s opinion, but know that if you say something really stupid, like the Braves should trade Derek Lowe for Matt Kemp, you’re comment will probably be thrown away.
Liberty Media can sale the Braves this year per their agreement with MLB and the tax requirements for the cash and stock swap. One would expect an decent increase in payroll allowing Liberty to increase the team’s value and follow up the last two playoff or near seasons (however sadly they ended) with another championship run. The motivation to sell is Liberty using the Braves’ sale proceeds to focus on their core media business during a time when core business acquisitions are reasonably priced, so it is wise to expect a sale over the next few years.
The premise that there will be limited additional payroll funds is very likely flawed. Expect Liberty Media to build on a good couple of years with increased spending that will eventually lead to the sale of a better Braves team.
I should have done better editing for the above comments. The spelling is bonked. Bah!
Everyone is bashing Alex Gonzalez on the comments. Yeah he’s not the best hitter, but historicaly thats the way it is with shortstops. He adds such a good efensive glove that his batting doesn’t matter, yeah it hurts the offense, but he makes up for his lack of offense with his glove and leadership. Yeah, I’d like to have a shortstop who had a glove and bat, but right now, the Braves cant afford to get that, so we have to “settle” for one of the best shortstop gloves.
If Liberty Media is really interested in selling they will look to avoid any long term financial commitments, and minimize short term commitments in order to maximize the value of the franchise.
If the team is for sale, the last thing we can expect is an increase in payroll.
Agree with 44, if anything Liberty Media will restrict the number of lomg term deals handed out if they are interested in selling.
While Liberty has been very tight with our payroll, they haven’t been completely unreasonable. The $90m range is about mid-tier in MLB so we could compete if we are smart with our resources. Their hands off approach is also the reason why FW & McQuirk are left to run the business.
Take a look at the Dodgers and you’ll see a case where a media entity (Fox, Rupert Murdoch) that was pretty hands off sell to an individual owner only for the individual owner to completely derail a very solid club with good attendance and revenue stream. Just be careful what we wish for.
Increase to attendance & TV rights are the only way we could improve our payroll in a sustainable way. I have no idea what the TV rights agreement for the Braves are but I know our attendance during summer months are below average even when we are winning!
I don’t think we really have anything to complain about with Liberty Media. Payroll seems pretty consistent with market size and attendance to me.
In terms of city size, Atlanta is the 9th biggest TV market in the country. Braves attendance with 15th in the MLB, and payroll was 14th.
In addition there’s not an exact link between wins and payroll. Take a look at how the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies finished this season.
From Liberty Media’s perspective, they would have to see return on investment. There’s really nothing to indicate that attendance will increase if payroll goes up.
Plus, the team has a handful of bad contracts at the moment. That’s not uncommon among MLB teams, but its not going to help the Brave’s case if they are asking Liberty Media for more money.
Having a hard cap on payroll means when contracts come off the books we should be able to spend it e.g. Prior to the start of 2009 season when we splashed out on KK & Lowe. Those were not Liberty’s mistakes but calculated risks by FO.
I read an article last off season that pointed to the Braves making budgted profit for the 1st time in 2010 which makes me wonder how much money they lost during our ‘Golden’ years?
Yonder Alonso has been moved by the Reds to LF, I wonder if he is any good there and if teh reds would be interested in trading him?
And then this happened:
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseball_marlins/2011/10/ex-florida-marlins-all-star-dan-uggla-named-in-porn-star-scandal.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marlinsblog+%28Florida+Marlins+|+Sun-Sentinel+Blogs%29
I know Uggla is now separated from his wife but I have always thought he strayed anyway. I guess this is one way to steal a client from another agency??
I enjoy this website, and I do enjoy reading the comments, I am glad they have returned – I stopped visiting as frequently without them, and was surprised to see them again.
A word of advice for the admins: I think your skin is too thin regarding the comments section. Someone says something you don’t agree with and you turn comments off.
As you note above, good baseball fans will accept the best arguments and ignore bad ones. The actual presence of bad arguments is irrelevant.
When in doubt, you could always just delete comments you don’t like. However, the discussion in the comments in this website is of equal valuable to a reader like me than the original content, even when it’s stupid.
A good example is the point raised above, which you have not addressed, that strikes to the nature of the team’s ownership, it’s effects on roster movements and payroll in general.
This is why comments are valuable. There will be some bad mixed in with the good. This is life.
jmartin -
Thank you for your comment. I’m also glad to see the comments have returned, as have many of the readers. We delete many comments that are posted on the site, mainly if they feature very poor spelling/grammar, terrible language or ideas that are too stupid to be funny. Ideas like the fact that Chipper Jones intentionally injured himself to allow Brooks Conrad to play in 2009 is an example of an idea that is so stupid, that it’s hilarious. The idea that Derek Lowe should be traded for Matt Kemp and $10 is too stupid to be funny. It’s someone trying to be realistic, but in result, they are far from it. We each have different viewpoints and it depends on who sees what comment.
It got to the point that we were bringing in by far more traffic than any of the other SweetSpot sites, which we take pride in, but at the same time, became a burden. The time commitment became too large and we all took a step back for a short period of time. The good news is that we’re back.
Here’s my comment on the ownership situation: For those who don’t know, I work for the Peoria Rivermen of the American Hockey League in their communications department. The Rivermen are owned by the Blues who are for sale. There are very few employees in the organization who could tell you anything about the sale besides media generated rumors. The fact of the matter is, the level of activity by the ownership of the team is something that is hard to determine at any point in time, because so few people are involved. That being said, I find it hard to talk about the ownership situation when so few facts are known. In fact, the only fact that is known is that Liberty Media currently owns the team. Other than that, I would prefer to avoid arguments over how much money they are allowing Frank Wren to use next season or what kind of restrictions they have on player movement. We hold our work to a high standard which often focuses on facts and analytics. Getting into the ownership situation would neither produce quality work since such little information is known and the numbers are not made public.
I hope that I was able to answer your questions as well as some of the others posted recently. We’re glad to see everyone back in action and adding to the overall quality of the website.
Just wanted to say I’m glad to see not one, but three posts added to this site! Love your work. Already excited for next season!
If I were Dan Uggla, I would have banged Bibi Jones
But I would have worn a condom
Actually, I would have worn two
In other news, Dan Uggla has agreed to terms with the producers of the Jersey Shore, pending approval of the nickname “D-Sleezy”