Why a Brian McCann Deal Will Get Done
December 1, 2011 at 10:58 am by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves, Economic Analysis, Farm System, Player Analysis, Transactions
So David O’Brien stoked up the fires of Braves fans everywhere with his most recent blog discussing the prospects for a Brian McCann extension. It was actually a very good article, though it more reported the facts than went into analysis of what will happen (DO’B is actually excellent at these kinds of articles). However, many Braves fans were highly perturbed that O’Brien would even suggest the possibility that the Braves may go with young Christian Bethancourt instead of extending McCann into the golden sunset. One Twitter follower even missed the point so badly that he tweeted O’Brien asking “you’re seriously comparing a future HOFer to a guy who has 0 MLB at bats (Bethancourt)?!”
Braves fans are just now coming to terms with the fact that Jair Jurrjens at the very least won’t be extended, and will probably be traded before he hits free agency. Then there’s the idea of also trading the gritty, scrappy, ‘just loves playing the game of baseball’ Martin Prado that’s also had some among the Braves faithful reigniting their disdain for GM Frank Wren. Not keeping McCann long term would just break their backs. Stay calm Braves fans. Brain McCann, barring a significant injury within the next year, will sign long term and here’s why.
Brian McCann likes being a Brave. This much is obvious, it’d be a great inconvenience for him to leave, personally. He’s built his whole life around this area and seems to genuinely love the area. If there was ever a candidate for a guy taking a hometown discount, it’s Brian McCann. No, he wouldn’t accept 7 years at 6 million a year or anything absurd like that. But I truly believe he’d take at least 2-3 million under what he’d get on the open market. As O’Brien also points out, he also has an agent that has taken team friendly deals in the past with Chipper Jones. Now, this isn’t so much about the agent, as it is a signal of McCann’s intentions. If McCann was fully intending to try to get the maximum he could squeeze out of the Braves, then he’d likely have changed agents by now. B.B. Abbott is the agent you choose when you want more of a ‘lifestyle deal’. While Scott Boras is excellent at what he does, he actually tends to avoid clients that aren’t seeking the maximum they can get, or at least he tries to convince them of the errors in their ways. The fact that McCann has chosen, and stuck with B.B. Abbott is a very good sign for Braves fans.
Now, the other issue is that Brian McCann may be worth more to the Braves than any other team. I know most of the SABR crowd is loathe to valuate a player on anything other than strictly on the field metrics. But the Atlanta Braves have spent a lot of money in marketing Brian McCann. While the ‘face of the franchise’ idea can often times be overplayed, some also might underplay it. The Braves marketing department has tied up a lot of the value of the Braves brand into the Brian McCann brand. In my view, they’ve in many ways put in a large long term investment in him already as a selling point both team value wise and ticket wise.
There are some counterbalancing factors here as well though. On a strictly ‘on the field’ measure McCann would likely be more valuable to an American League team, where he could transition to DH if his body wore down too much to be an effective catcher, and even if it didn’t, he’d provide additional value as a DH during his scheduled off days, much like Mauer has for the Twins.
However, it’s my firm belief that with the Braves substantial investment in marketing McCann as the selling point to fans for the franchise, and McCann’s comfort with the area, it is so far in both parties’ interest that it seems highly improbable that he won’t sign at least one more contract as a Brave. I believe the chances are high that after his next contract he would go to an AL team as his body continues to wear down from catching, but I think both sides, McCann and the Braves, will be willing to risk another 5-7 years (from this point forward, not 5-7 years from 2014) of McCann as a full time catcher.
Now, all that might not matter if the Braves just flat out cannot afford to sign him to an at least reasonable long term contract without crippling the franchise. So we have to explore what flexibility the team will have over the next 7 years and whether or not this would allow them to sign McCann.
Using Cot’s Atlanta Braves contract obligations page, we see that the Braves do indeed have substantial payroll flexibility. Not only are they only on the hook for Uggla after next year, but it appears they will be able to field an excellent pitching staff entirely based around ML minimum and arbitration players. This will likely allow them to field an entire starting staff for around the cost of C.C. Sabathia. During that time it seems likely that SS, RF and 1B will also be comprised of arbitration and ML minimum players (Pastornicky, Heyward and Freeman). It is difficult to know exactly where all these arbitration numbers will fall, and which players may or may not be non-tendered, but my estimate is that for 2014 (the first year the Braves wouldn’t control McCann), the Braves are looking at being able to fill 5 starters, Closer, Primary Set Up Man, 1B, 2B, SS and RF for around 35-40 million. There’s no reason to think the Braves budget will significantly deviate from the ~88 Million it’s been at in previous years. Leaving the team with roughly 50 million dollars to fill Catcher, 3B, CF and LF (along with bench spots and filler bullpen roles). I’ll just guess that the mix of 3B, CF, LF and bench/bullpen will cost somewhere around $30 Million, with a mix of prospects, trades and free agents filling those roles. That leaves the Braves with something like a max of $20 Million for McCann in 2014.
However, the issue isn’t McCann’s first year, it’s the subsequent years as players like Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel continue to see their salaries escalate through the arbitration ranks (or possibly having their arbitration and first few years of free agency bought out in an extension).
This would be the one drawback to having such a productive farm. The Braves would either be forced to trade at least some of these players, or have serious payroll restrictions. If many of these players perform like we expect them to, they could see arbitration awards in the neighborhood of 6-10 million, especially in their final years of arbitration. Beginning in 2016, the Braves will begin to feel a substantial pinch, as many of their top flight players are scheduled to hit the free agent market. If they aren’t resigned at substantial cost, and there isn’t a rookie waiting in the wings, they’ll have to be replaced at a substantial cost.
This is the part where things become tricky. If the Braves do sign McCann to a long term deal, they’re not only taking a gamble that McCann’s body will hold up to the rigors of catching full time for several more years, they’re also gambling that their farm system will continue to be just as productive as it has been in recent years. Especially 2015-2016. If the Braves begin to see the farm system well dry up during that time span, things could get ugly, as they’d be forced to either depend on substandard rookies or cheap free agents to fill in the gaps in 2015-2016.
With Bethancourt, the Braves would be taking substantially less of a gamble. Sure, he might not, in fact almost certainly will not, be the player that McCann is. But with Bethancourt at the ML minimum for a few years and then as a lower cost arbitration player, the Braves would have substantially greater payroll flexibility to cover over potential shortcomings in other areas.
That being said, I think that’s a gamble the Braves take. Wren seems justifiably confident in his ability to build and maintain a productive farm system, and the fact that the new CBA will no longer punish the Braves draft penny pinching ways quite as much bodes well for the future of the farm system. We can also take into account that if Bethancourt continues to mature into a highly valuable prospect, he could be traded to either bring in a missing piece, or more likely substantially bolster the farm system in areas of greater immediate need.
So, finally, let’s look at the exact dollar amounts that it would likely take to get it done. First we have to set the top and bottom of the market. Those two numbers are easy enough to set: McCann won’t take a paycut from his 2013 pay and no team is going to pay him more than the Twins shelled out for Mauer. That establishes his bottom number as $13 million and his top number as $23 million. Obviously however there is a lot of room between those two numbers.
First, I think we can attack the top number somewhat. Joe Mauer was also a hometown product (Born in St. Paul Minnesota), so many of the similarities between the two are stunning. However, I think that Mauer’s injury has scared some of the more skittish GMs, who might otherwise lavish money upon McCann, at least a little. Additionally, while McCann’s career numbers compare very favorably to Mauer’s, McCann hasn’t had a year like Mauer did in 2009, which was likely also overvalued by the Twins, because they seem to organizationally care a lot about batting average. I wouldn’t think McCann would be able to find much in excess of $19 million per on the free agency market. Especially since the Yankees seem content with a young catcher, the Red Sox seem to be going forward with Salty (interesting McCann gets blocked by Salty) and the Angels seem to be really high on Ianetta’s OBP. While all of thsoe are fluid situations, it likely precludes any of those teams from being able to fully just blow away the Braves offer. So, for now, let’s estimate the top of the market at $19 million.
At the bottom, I don’t see McCann taking anything under a $3 million raise from his option year on his current contract. So, we can then say the absolute bottom will likely be $15 million.
With a range of $15 million to $19 million, I’d expect that the Braves will first exercise their club option on McCann for 2013, then extend him midseason through 2018, for a total of 5 years, $80 million at $16 million per, with performance bonuses that could put him up to $18 million per.
There are advantages and disadvantages to both sides here. McCann will likely be leaving some money on the table, for stability and security. The Braves are taking a substantial risk that McCann will stay healthy and that their farm system will continue to provide the big club with several cheap younger players in future years. However, given the investments both parties have made in this relationship to this point, I don’t see any scenario (except substantial injury in the next year and a half) where both sides fail to agree to continue the relationship. I don’t even expect the dealings to be especially contentious.
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I also think the Braves extend McCann. However, I think the contract total will be around the 100M range – maybe 6 years and 96 million.
I think it is more likely that Bethancourt is traded than it is that McCann is allowed to walk away as a free agent.
It is also slightly possible that by the time Mac is ready to give up catching full time, that the NL will have the DH rule. We can hope.
Great article and analysis! Thoroughly enjoyed it, Franklin. I really do hope the Braves sign McCann long term.
Do you think the Braves/Wren will front-load his contract to compensate for the (likely) increasing salary of arbitration eligible players? I know the Braves don’t usually do this, but it seems like a good option in this situation.
I think it would be too much of a pain to watch a playing of McCann’s caliber just walk away. From everything that I’ve heard, he’s great in the clubhouse and he has done everything right up to this point.
Has anyone found out if Liberty actually holds a payroll limit on the Braves? I have heard that it is the FO that actually keeps their payroll down and not Liberty themselves. I don’t know if that claim is substantiated, but the Braves aren’t exactly without their big signings over the last 5 years. Wren doesn’t pull the trigger on every big name, but it’s not like he hasn’t done it at all either.
@Austin
The difficult part is that the ‘pinch’ years will come in the middle of the contract. They actually pretty decent flexibility payroll wise after Uggla comes off the books again. I don’t really see them doing a front and backloaded contract, but I guess we’ll see.
@JT
In my mind years depends on whether they do it before, during or after his option year. Though I could see, and wouldn’t really have a problem with a 6th year, especially if it was a club or mutual option.
A 5 year contract may make sense for both sides, as it would allow McCann to get one more big contract (especially in the AL), most likely, whereas a 6th year would probably cut that down a lot, while also giving the Braves a bit more flexibility.
I also don’t really see the NL going to a DH, but who really knows. I’d like it, but I don’t see it happening, at least during my dad’s generation’s lifetime.
@Jon
From what I’ve gathered, Terry McGuirk is told to operate at a profit neutral level while trying to build team value as much as possible. WHile he could likely raise payroll somewhat, it would have to be borne out with increased $$ or Liberty would be none too happy. They’re fine not getting profits from the Braves, they just want two things 1) they DO NOT want to lose money on a yearly basis and 2) they want the franchise to sell for a lot more than they bought it.
How much of an effect will the new scheduling have? If we play 20+ games in AL parks, how many ‘off’ days will catchers truly need?
@6 – Good point on scheduling!
I think that 4 years and $60 million beyond 2013 with a mutual option for 2018 would do the trick. Maybe throw in a Silver Slugger and/or All-Star bonus.
I just commented on the article that the only way McCann gets traded is that we receive a “TEXIERA LIKE” trade return for him when Braves did for Rangers.
with bethancourt’s developing bat, strong arm and athleticism…any chances he starts seeing some time in the OF to be a possible LFer? Sounds like his status as a possible elite catcher might be more valuable in a trade piece…just a thought since i heard about his good speed (for a catcher) and his success this year.
I would think the Braves would trade Bethancourt, before thinking about converting him to LF. Defensive catchers like him don’t come along very often, if he does develop his bat fully, he’d bring a LOT back in trade, much more value than he’d give us as a mediocre LF (which is likely all he could possibly project to be in LF).
Whatever happened to Peter? Stephen Marek being removed from the 40 man was the final straw for Peter and the Braves?
Marek was a big blow on all of us.
Keep BMac forever!!
You have to remember to that the Braves will most likely have new ownership sometime within the next 5 years. The Braves are a profitable franchise and their value continues to grow eventually Liberty is going to move the team as their tax breaks will be over. The better the roster is the higher the value the team will have as well. That’s one of the reasons that the Dodgers wanted to sign Kemp to an extention and the Cubs went on a spending spree before they were to be sold(although that one didn’t turn out to well). So I would be shocked if Liberty did not spend the extra money to keep McCann and someone like Heyward, if he bounces back like we all expect and becomes a big star. Because it’s going to make the value of the franchise go up as well.
Riddle me this: 42, 35, 25, 19? How many doubles each of the last 4 seasons for Brian McCann? I am surprised no one else on this site is speaking to this. Granted that most people make decisions based upon emotion and rationalize later, but a long term contract concerns me not just for the Braves, but even for Brian McCann. I shudder to think of the reception he will be getting and the things said in the blogosphere if his offensive production declines and he is leading the league in passed balls. Even if he is Mike Piazza with 15 more pounds, and I am not convinced he is, locking him up beyond 2017 may prove to be a big mistake. 4 at $18M with options and a buyout would be much wiser and honestly I think his future would be better served in an AL setting with a short back porch, with the right contract he could even help finance several extra rows of SunTrust seats behind home plate like they did at Turner field for him. And I even like the guy.
I think exercising the option for 2013 and working out a deal that pays him 15 million a year from 2014-2018 makes a lot more sense. I know it’s just 5 million and a million per year, but 16 a pop is a lotta scrap for a player that will probably be posting OPS’s in the .750-.800 range for the last few years of that deal. Still good for a catcher, but not worth 16 million a year and certainly not worth a player 15% of the payroll.
I would hate to see McCann leave as much as anybody, but let’s take step back for a moment.
Long term/ big money deals almost never work out well for the team. If you exclude Yankees/Red Sox/ Phillies, are there any $15+ million dollars players more than two years into there deals that aren’t underwater?
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/salaries/top50
If you look at this list, and exclude guys playing for the the three big money east coast teams, only Michael Young and Miguel Cabrera played anywhere close to salary in 2011. That’s 2 out of 25. Those aren’t good odds.
Does a team with a $90 million dollar payroll want to tie up $15+ million dollars a year on an aging catcher? The man’s not going to age like fine wine. Offense is far cheaper to acquire at other positions. Especially when you consider that McCann is only going to start about 130 games a year, it just doesn’t make sense to sink that kind of money into a catcher on the wrong side of 30.
@17 Great point. We all love Mac but my loyalty is to the Braves. That kind of commitment is way too much risk for a mid-market team. Not to mention that we may have a viable option in our farm system. Best course of action is to wait two years and reevaluate the situation.
Just to be clear, this is a ‘what I think will happen’ type article. Not a ‘what I would do if I were GM’ type article.
@15 I’ve brought up McCann’s declining doubles rate several times, and I even wrote a blog post about it back before I wrote for CAC. It does concern me, though it’s hard to exactly know what to make of it.
at 15-16 mill. we will almost certainly be underpaying for McCann in the early years of the contract. His production from the catcher’s spot is almost certainly worth much more than that. At the end, yeah, we may be overpaying but that’s how baseball contracts work, you underpay up front to overpay at the back end. I think the deal overall would be a fair one. I’m not exactly sure what I would do in Wren’s spot. From a pure value standpoint, I’d probably try to pay him 12-15, but even witha hometown discount, I doubt that gets it done. Remember, the Twins paid Joe Mauer 23 Million. 23. We’re proposing paying a player with similar production 7-8 million less than that.
When handing out contracts, unless you’re a small market team (and as much as Braves fans whine about the payroll, 90 mill isn’t small market), you can’t purely go the ‘value’ route. You also have to consider what the market rate is for those players. McCann’s market rate is probably going to be around 18-19 million, unless he severely regresses or gets injured prior to his next contract.
Let’s also all take a step back on Bethancourt. While the guy is obviously a great prospect at this point, right now I still consider him a defensive specialist. The AFL is both a small sample size and a ridiculous hitter’s environment. If he puts up those numbers over a full season at Mississippi, then maybe things are different. At this point, we’re talking about a guy who has hit 17 professional homeruns from 2008-2011, and that’s counting the AFL. A player with a career minor league .303 OBP. Not only is Bethancourt unproven at the major league level, he’s unproven at the minor league level. He is absolutely still in the ‘could just as easily flame out as pan out’ category.
I think one interesting thing you said is about waiting to extend McCann, and I think that’s a very salient point. It’s something Wren probably shouldn’t even be looking at this offseason, unless some GM offers him a major haul to trade for McCann. Even by the end of next season, the Braves should have a better idea of Bethancourt’s potential and if McCann’s decline is already starting, and that’s probably the earliest Wren should even start discussing an extension with McCann and Abbot in earnest.
Also, with regard to McCann’s declining power, while that has concerned me, I am somewhat loathe to include last season as a sign of a continued decrease because of his miserable 2nd half last season. He had 15 doubles and 15 HRs for a 514 SLG before the ASG, and only 4 doubles and 9 HRs for a 384 SLG after the ASG. While the slump was probably partly a regression toward the norm, I don’t think that explains all of it, nor do I expect it to be a sign of his production in the immediate future. Next year would give us further evidence of how quickly he is trending down.
@17
While this is an interesting point, I think it’s far more valid to look at which players are underwater so far over the total life of the contract, rather than just which players were at or above their salary last year. As Franklin noted, in long term contracts, especially for players who are FA-eligible, you often overpay at the end in exchange for value at the beginning of the contract. If you look at players who are more than 2 years into a contract, there’s a good chance they’re past the value years and into the overpay years.
Also, I don’t think it’s quite valid to compare all long-term deals as if they’re the same thing. As has been stated often on this site, you almost always overpay when you sign a player as a FA. Teams extend their own players because they believe they can do so for the same or, more likely, less than it would cost to re-sign them once they hit the FA market. Because of this difference, a team is more likely to be underwater on a long-term contract given to a FA than on an extension given to one of their own players.
Of course, the value of extending McCann would be lower than that of extending a player at another position of around the same age because of the tendency of catchers to wear down more quickly.
Ok, hold on. McCann’s numbers aren’t declining. He was having one of the best years of his career until he got hurt. He pulled a muscle, it could happen to anyone. I would cry my eyes out if McCann was no longer a Brave. He’s going to do the best he can, and that’s all we can ask. Brian isn’t going anywhere.