A Good Time to Trade Jonny Venters
December 2, 2011 at 11:00 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
With Heath Bell receiving a three year $27 million deal from the Miami Marlins and Jonathan Papelbon signing for four years and $50 million, there seems to be at least a somewhat an inflated price for late inning relievers. Here is the list of closers still available on the free agent market. Of course, there are certain to be relievers available via the trade market as well.
Ryan Madson
Francisco Cordero
Matt Capps
Frank Francisco
Jon Rauch
Francisco Rodriguez
Brad Lidge
Juan Olvideo (Formerly Leo Nunez, soon to be non-tendered by the Marlins)
There are also other players who MLB Trade Rumors free agent tracker does not list as closers, but that could be signed as one if a team sees fit, such as David Aardsma or Octavio Dotel. For the most part, these are the guys that will be signed to pitch the ninth inning going forward, with some of them also being placed in set-up roles for teams with already established closers.
And here is the list of teams that could be looking for a closer.
Boston
Toronto
Minnesota
New York Mets
Cincinnati
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego
A few of these teams may have players lined up as set-up men that could easily step up into the role of closer, but we all know how teams value “closer experience” and like to at least have a player with said experience on the roster in a set-up role at minimum in case the newly appointed ninth inning man fails. Venters does not fall into this category, but those teams could sign one of the aforementioned closers which would create an opening on another team. Even looking outside of the closer position, many teams have bullpen problems and would be all over a pitcher the quality of Venters to improve their late-inning relief.
Teams do have some options. It is not as if there are twelve teams looking for closers and only three viable candidates, which would drive up the price of those relievers. The available options does not warrant what I consider to be an overpay for the reliever contracts being handed out.
With that said, Jonny Venters could be a solid trade candidate at this point. Just like Jair Jurrjens’ value was at its all time highest in the middle of 2011, Venters value is likely as high as it can get at this point. After two consecutive 80+ inning seasons with an ERA under 2.00, teams would be very attracted to acquiring Venters if he were known to be available.
Now, why should he be traded? There are a number of reasons. One is that Venters has already had Tommy John surgery in his career, so he is literally one wrong elbow snap from no longer having a career in the sport. Recovering from one Tommy John surgery is very common, recovering from two is much less likely.
His 171 innings over two seasons ranks second in the Majors behind Tyler Clippard for relief pitchers, and he is one of only five relievers to throw over 150 innings since 2010. In terms of appearances for relievers, Venters is the league leader over the past two years with 164. He has piled up the innings and appearances, and as most of us know the nickname “Every Day Jonny” has certainly been fitting. Lots of appearances does not necessarily mean Venters will suffer a catastrophic injury, but it raises the odds of one occurring, at least somewhat.
Replacing a pitcher like Venters is no easy task. Fortunately, the Braves are in a solid position to do so. Most would point to Eric O’Flaherty being the guy to step in after his great 2011 season, but with the lack of left-handed relievers it would likely make more sense for Arodys Vizcaino or Kris Medlen to become the de facto eighth inning man. The Braves have a solid group of relievers, and while the production could take a slight hit without Venters, the bullpen would likely still be a strength of the club in 2012 even without him.
With his extremely impressive performance over two seasons, the amazing sinker that has been lauded by so many hitters, the slightly inflated market for late inning relievers, the ample potential in-house replacements, and the amount of appearances he has made over his Major League tenure, it starts to make some sense to trade Venters at his peak value.
A team with little hopes of contending for the playoffs would not be a team that would trade a hefty amount for Venters. Cincinnati, however, does have hopes of contending and could be willing to go after a player like Jonny. They signed Francisco Cordero in 2007 to what was then the biggest deal ever signed by a relief pitcher at four years and $46 million, so they have a propensity for overvaluing the position of closer. Toronto would be another interesting team, as they have stated the free agent market for closers is crazy right now and they could be looking to acquire a pitcher like Venters through trade.
What the return would be is extremely difficult to determine, but moving Venters now could pay dividends in the long run and remove the risk of Venters’ performance declining or an injury occurring under the Braves’ watch, leaving them with an asset that is not quite worth what it once was and that will begin to get expensive after next season.
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Interesting idea….I would hate to see him go but a team would be willing to give up quite a bit for him. Atlanta got production infinitely above what they were expecting out of Venters already.
You may catch a lot of flack for this idea but it’s something I’ve thought we should do since the season ended. It’s not without risk, as Medlen barely got back in an MLB game last season, and Arodys is not exactly a known commodity, but I also think Venters’ value can’t escalate from here. Ultimately I don’t think the front office will do it, because they see our 7-9 innings as an extreme strength, and with the potential again for our starters to go only 5-6 innings many nights (Huddy is one year older, and the remaining starters other than Jurrjens have been K pitchers to this point), we won’t want to open up a question mark in the 7th or 8th inning that might happen by trading Venters.
I hope that as closers come off the board the FO at least floats Venters’ name here and there to see what teams would be willing to give up.
If the amount of innings Venters has pitched last year raises the risk he might get injured for the Braves and makes him an enticing trade candidate, he is also less valuable to other teams for the same reason.
I see this a lot when we talk about overvaluing/undervaluing. In some situations it makes sense–like when certain teams don’t understand or don’t care about DIPS–but I wouldn’t imagine the Braves could somehow be selling high on Venters because of the amount of innings he has pitched and the consequent injury risk.
3/chriti04
Did you read the part about Cincy overvaluing closers? Enough MLB teams foolishly overvalue things and fail to understand concepts like DIPS to at least raise this topic. I don’t want to trade Jonny simply because I love watching him pitch, but if Wren were able to get a good return, I would be on board.
Few concerns
1) Our starting pitching staff is not known for eating innings. Why not keep a large stable of strong relief pitchers that can be alternated from game to game? Especially if we are trading one or more starting pitchers for a position player. A Vizcaino / O’Flaherty / Kimbrel / Venters / Medlen bullpen could be a huge asset… or it could be shallow if Vizcaino takes a step back or if Medlen doesn’t fully recover.
2) What would we get in return? The Braves should be trading for pieces that can help them win immediately (as opposed to a prospect) given a weaker bullpen could have a substantial negative impact on the team’s ability to win now. Honestly I have not been very impressed with the names thrown around for potential returns for Prado and Jurrjens. Venters would have to snag something more than what has been speculaed for them.
4,
Did you read my post? My only point was that the amount of innings Venters pitched isn’t some secret that would allow the Braves to sell high and extract extra value in a trade.
Guys like Prado, Venters and EOF should only be traded if the other team values them more than the Braves and are willing to pay that price for them.
Prado is a league average LFer for the Braves, but he could be an all star at 2B for another team.
Venters is an 8th inning guy for the Braves, but he could be a cheap elite closer for another team.
EOF is a 6/7th inning guy for the Braves, but he could be a cheap 8th inning guy or average closer for another team.
If teams are willing to pay for the all star 2B value of Prado, or the elite closer value of Venters, it might be wise to trade them. If not, hold onto them all and enjoy having superior players up and down the roster.
My bad. I wasn’t attacking you, it just seemed like you were trying to dismiss the idea of trading Venters because everyone knows about his workload. Obviously the information is out there, but the fact is, many teams won’t care. Teams such as the Reds who are in a small window of opportunity to go for it will throw caution to the wind when it comes to points like that. Venters’ talent far supersedes his injury risks for teams of that nature. His value likely will never be higher, as his price tag starts to increase in a couple of years. If the return is right, pull the trigger.
That being said, it would be a huge shock to me for Venters to actually be moved, at least for this off season.
JJ, Prado and eventually Big Red, ok. But Venters? Now you’ve gone too far!
Any time you can trade someone for value and not have a noticeable drop off (he’s not going to have another year like this past year, and the injury risk is real after Freddy made like Torre), you should seriously consider it. Teams consistently overpay for relievers. If we can benefit from that we should.
Well said Nick S. Completely agree with your post.
This is an example of attempting to out-think the room. He is cheap, he is versatile. This idea takes the away the strength of the team and you’re not going to get Troy Tulowitzki for a reliever.
I am ok with trading anyone as long as it benefits the team and isn’t a lopsided trade like for Teixeira. So if he is gonna be traded get something for him or maybe package him along with Prado and J.J i mean send this package to Cincy and i guarantee that the return will be for it I can see the Braves landing from Cincy Stubbs Alonso and either Zach Cozart or Paul Janish or both.
I wouldn’t trade with AA and his jedi mind tricks after the felony he did to Wren the last time they agreed to do an exchange.
I agree with all the posts about making trades that benefit the team in the long run. I also agree that basically JUST ABOUT everyone should be available to be talked about if it makes the team better top to bottom.
With that being said, I am curious if it would be better to wait even if the trade value is high on Venters right now. The reason being it is such a buyers market and next off season his value would be greater to a team that covets him. Sure he might not post, and probably wont post, the same kind of numbers from the last 2 years but if he came close…..
I would just think the Braves would still get top dollar for him even after, and probably more so, next year.
Thoughts?
“And here is the list of teams that could be looking for a closer.
Boston
Toronto
Minnesota
New York Mets
Cincinnati
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego”
Two of those teams will pay the price for Venters. The next five won’t pay for him.
“Teams do have some options. It is not as if there are twelve teams looking for closers and only three viable candidates, which would drive up the price of those relievers.”
Exactly, which means it’s not an great time to trade Venters. How about we keep him and his 500K salary and try to win in 2012? Medlen and Vizcaino aren’t as good as Venters. Too much love around here for Viz as a reliever. I saw less than great command in short stints last year from him, not surprising given his age and lack of minor league innings.
Ben, after you’ve narrowed down the field of potential trade candidates who would you want to receive in a trade?
I like that everyone heard that Wren was trading Prado for Seth Smith and everyone thought it moronic. Whenever a MLB player is traded for another, any prospects seem to be completely overlooked (see: Vazquez for Melky, Vizacaino). Wren was actually trying to get Nolan Arenado, who would have most likely been our future 3B if the Rockies took the bait. I wish the GM the Astros fired could be hired by all opposing teams, so Wren could cut video game deals (with force trade turned on).
Wren had better know what he was doing before making a gamble like that…or fans would want to run him out of town even more than Liberty media.
First, this website wants to trade the Braves #1 starter from the past three years and now it wants to trade the number #1 set up guy in the majors. Why don’t you guys get creative and get into the minor league roster and get us some tweaks rather than building for the future with prospects. All your esoteric stats are blurring your vision about how close this roster is to the WS.
@19 This website wants to make trades that make the Braves better. Sure they post a lot of ideas that may be considered unpopular to the uninformed fan but if you read the recommendations you may learn something. At no point, at anytime, did this website suggest to trade JJ and Venters without getting proper value.
What does “get into the minor league roster and get us some tweaks” mean?
Hey Ben, can you fetch us some tweaks, please?
Or maybe you meant “get into the minor league roster and get us some twinks.”
I haven’t seen any compensatory value that makes up for team unity, organizational experience, pegged role values,
and work ethic in any of your grandiose proposals. Think Packers here. All I see is media bullet points to generate
hype not constructive solutions. May this should be a polictical website.
Well, we need a LFer, and any ideas about who is expendable to achieve that is worthwhile and fun.
I would not trade Heyward or Freeman or Simmons or Kimbrell. But that’s about it. Everybody else is up for grabs, as long as the net result for our starting 8 is an upgrade in LF. I would not trade more than two of our stud young arms, and that sort of package would need to be for someone like McCutchen.
So there is no point in getting worked up because someone suggests someone can get traded.
@23
Think Packers? As in Green Bay Packers? Funny you should mention them. Big fan of the Packers. They are on top because of a forward thinking GM that is unwilling to pay high prices in free agency, focus on the draft to acquire quality players, and are willing to part with whoever at any given moment if it will benefit their team.
The Braves don’t operate opposite of the Packers, but if they operated more like them they would be in even better shape. Part of operating like them is hiring quality management to handle to players and put them in positions to succeed. Simply by having Fredi Gonzalez as the manager is acting unlike the Packers.
The Packers are not good because of “heart, team unity, experience (one of NFL’s youngest teams), of work ethic.” They have those qualities, as most teams do. These are players interviewing for jobs every single Sunday, no team is full of players who lack effort in either league. The Packers are where they are because they likely have the best GM in sports. He is forward thinking, which is what I suggest Wren should be as well.
“team unity, organizational experience, pegged role values, and work ethic in any of your grandiose proposals”
If you are looking for these you might want to check out the ajc website. I am sure that you will find plenty of people who agree with you there.
I actually suggested we trade EOF for a lot of the same reasons here. He makes more, is under team control for less years, and is an inferior pitcher; BUT trading him in a package with someone like Diaz gives us some payroll flexibility and would provide some decent return if the team plans on using EOF as a closer (and I’m sure some team wouldn’t be opposed to it). He’s also pretty much completely replaceable by internal options so it’s not like we risk a lot in bullpen productivity.
Last time I checked, when players get to be to expensive for the Packers to keep, then they are always willing to let them go. The Packers cut AJ Hawk at the start of the season because he was going to make money that was substantially higher than his value, the same with Ryan Pickett. Thompson likely has a plan for the Packers well into the future as all general managers should and to not look at these possibilities would be ridiculous.
By the way, responding to comments on an iPad is not recommended.
Venters hasn’t even hit arbitration yet and you want to trade him?
Just foolish.
The post had nothing to do with his price in terms of money owed whatsoever. That’s a different topic altogether, and one to be considered eventually.
re-commenting it bugs me that it is hard to get a regular-ole soft przeetl these days. i do like salt on mine (and spicy mustard if i am i a context where i can dip rather than squiggle and get messy) but it don’t like the buttery ones that seem to be the norm these days.
I’m assuming you’re talking to me, Ben.
Why trade an elite reliever making league minimum? If the Braves were to trade Venters, in a deal or by himself, I don’t see how they’d be able to get equal value in terms of performance on the field compared to salary owed. Venters, at this point, is worth far far far far more than what the Braves are paying him. For a team that has to basically pinch pennies, Venters is a dream player for the Braves. You don’t trade that.
Ben, thanks for your thoughts as always. Posts like this are the reason why I haven’t read the AJC in years.
For a player like Venters, I actually feel like his value would be at peak mid-season. Presently, the teams in need of bullpen help have a ton of options, many of which will likely come down in price as the off season unfolds.
If you’re a fringe contender team like the Mets, Twins, Dodgers (who I believe will insert Kenley Jansen as a closer anyway), or Padres, you aren’t going to overpay in MLB-ready players for Jonny Venters (which is what Wren should be looking for).
If you’re a big payroll team and/or a team who understands DIPS like Boston or Toronto, you aren’t going to overpay for Venters when you know you can get comparable value for a monetary commitment.
Trading Venters for prospects or very young MLB-ready talent seems to be the only way to really benefit our team, to me. Contenders aren’t trading their stars for a reliever and non-contenders don’t need someone like Venters at all.
By mid-season, teams know where they’re sitting and have a better understanding of where they’re going. They’re also likely to have experienced reliever fungibility and/or injury. As teams look for that marginal win down the stretch, they may be more willing to part with prospects as they see the playoffs in their sights.
@ Ryan
“Why trade an elite reliever making league minimum?”
Please read the article. That’s exactly the point Ben addresses.
I agree with the other post that you are beginning to try too hard to think differently in terms of possible braves trades. Venters is one of the best setup man in baseball and he’s cheap. There would be no real improvements to the team by trading him. We are as close to a ws and only need a couple key pieces to get there. We would likely get a highly touted prospect for venters, which I understand you need to keep the franchise at a respectable level for years to come, but we need to win now which I believe venters helps us do at a good cost.
“Replacing a pitcher like Venters is no easy task. Fortunately, the Braves are in a solid position to do so.”
I personally think this carries too much risk. And the fact that he has had the results he’s had, makes the league minimum, are reasons to keep the guy. It’s the hot topic to trade every reliever or arb. eligible player – baseball is structured this way. Doesn’t mean it should happen or always be the right course of action.
A team just payed 15% of its payroll to a 34-year-old reliever who isn’t as good as Venters. There would be teams that would trade a very good deal for Venters, considering his age and dominance over the past two years.
You have to factor in reliever volatility into the discussion. Relievers cannot really be looked at the same as starters or position players for a number of different reasons. While trading relievers once they start getting expensive in arbitration is certainly not a bad move, it is not often necessary since they hardly make more than a few million.
There are cases where they earn more, and Venters will eventually be one of those players, but if he is traded at that point he likely would not net as much as he would if he were traded right now. I don’t know what else Venters could do to further elevate his value, which is why under this current market it seems like it would be a good time to move him. Is it a necessary move? Of course not. There’s specific *need* to trade him, this is just probably as good a time as there will ever be to do so.
Trade? Venters? Blasphemy.
As good as Venters is, he’s never really had much experience in a legit closer role. Do you think some teams would view that as a negative thus dropping his value?
I see what you are saying Ben and can only imagine your frustration with people posting on this post that don’t see your point. you are basically saying that the nexus point of trade value and Venter’s ability is basically here. IF (and it is in caps for a reason) there was ever a time and reason to trade the guy, now is the time. At no point in the article have you suggested that we have a Venters clone in the wings, but we have very close. Elite players are “elite” for a reason. They don’t grow on trees. But if you can closely replicate Venters #’s AND get something very good in return for him that improves the team in the near and long term. Than you would not be doing your job to consider of the offer as GM. This is why fans are fans and GMs are GMs.
I love Venters and everything he brings to the table, and anyone who has read anything I have written knows of my penchant to overvalue rps, but no tradeable player should ever be off the block.
If you can get an impact prospect or a competent middle of the diamond player for a relief pitcher you have to pull the trigger.
Ben, this is a really interesting idea, and one that makes a lot of sense. I think all Braves fans would rather have Venters in the bullpen than not, but you are absolutely right in that his value is probably as high as it will ever get. It would behoove Wren to figure out what exactly the market would bring for a guy like Venters. By no means does he need to be traded, but if the right deal presents itself, he shouldn’t be considered untouchable (nor should most any reliever for that matter).
Keep Venters. Trade Ben Duronio.
My suspicion is that the teams that are willing to overpay for late inning relief help are also going to overvalue intangibles like “closer experience,” which will make them undervalue Venters.
Trading Venters seems like a high-risk, high-reward sort of move that I don’t think the Braves need to make right now. They are close enough that they can afford to be more conservative.
Obviously, if they have reason to believe that Venters’s arm is going to break, that’s a different matter, but I assume (hope) they would have shut him down last year if they thought that was the case.
Post like this is what makes this blog the MVB among braves blogs. Thanks to all.
P.S. But applying the same reasoning to prado and jj doesn’t it brings to the conclusion that is not the right time to trade them?
I like the outside of the box thinking and this is an interesting idea to entertain, but seriously 2012 is a season where we need to be looking to win the World Series.
Last year was kind of surprise year. We did better than projected, but still should have done even better.
This coming season should be a season that we do everything we can to win. And losing Venters would hurt us immediately (short term, aka. 2012) more than it would help us.
Long term probably a good move, but short term is what we should be focusing on in this situation, I think.
I think some of you guys are missing the point. The article is not called “Jonny Venters Has to Go.”
The closer is the most overvalued “position” in baseball. JV would be a closer on almost every team and his trade value is at the highest it will ever be, barring a 0.00 ERA in 2012. Jonny is one of my favorite Braves, but we need a left fielder badly. Though if Wren traded Jonny, the ajc fans would storm the castle.
I believe the point with the Braves current situation is that the closer role for the Braves at this time is actually the most easily replaced role (whether there should be a role for what is now a “traditional closer” is another discussion) on the team. The Braves are paying very little for that role currently and have a greater surplus of arms that could easily step in and fill that role at low cost than at any time in recent memory. If I were going to dangle anyone in the marketplace, it would actually be Craig Kimbrell, on the outside chance that some team may irrationally over value him and trade away an enormously greater value to acquire him. The Braves could not so easily and affordably replace any other position on their team and potentially acquire so much in return. The fan base would freak!
I have to side with #33 here… sure it would be smart to trade Venters for a “middle of the diamond” guy, but I want specifics, someone like whom? Give me names, who would that guy be? You want to make the team better now right? We’re not saying “trade Venters for a handful of prospects,” we want an “impact player”. I don’t think we’ll get a big bat for him, maybe a team looking to dump salary might offer someone, but will the Braves take on a big contract? I don’t think Johnny’s going anywhere.
If the returning package is worthwhile then everyone including Venters should be considered. There are times when a GM has to make unpopular decisions but if it improves the team then so be it.
The point of the article is pointing out Venters’ value as a trade chip is near its highest if not already there. If another team was to offer a package that represents that value then the Braves will have to make a decision. You can’t tell me if the Angels was to offer Trout as a 1 for 1 the Braves would say no? (Just an example and not what I think is realistic)