Wren Doesn’t Need to ‘Respond’ To The Jose Reyes Deal
December 5, 2011 at 2:58 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, NL East News, Transaction Analysis
A lot of Braves fans have been burning up Twitter with the news of the Marlins apparent signing of Jose Reyes. The main theme is “how is Wren going to respond to this move?! How will we compete?!” My answer is “the same way we were going to in the first place, by making smart, long term sustainable moves.”
First, let’s briefly address the Marlins by making the obvious pun, something is really fishy here. I don’t think the Marlins, in their wildest dreams, believe that things are really going to turn around attendance wise in South Florida. Sure, their will be an initial bump, as curiosity about the new ballpark and weird conglomeration of new faces causes a few people to pack the stadium early on. It’s also hard to make out exactly what will come of the SEC investigation on Loria’s ripping off south Florida Taxpayers creative public financing for the new stadium.
My belief is that Loria is looking to build some appearance of value based upon the fleecing of the taxpayers for a new stadium and a few big gate seasons and then sell the team before the bottom falls out. That’s just speculation obviously, but a lot is going on here that we’re not privy to, and the Securities and Exchange Commission is taking a look, which is never a good thing.
Even with Reyes, the Marlins have a lot of holes. Nobody is exactly sure of how healthy Josh Johnson is going to be, and even with him, their pitching is shaky at best. The Marlins could field a very dangerous lineup, with their young power talent plus Reyes and Hanley. But that won’t really matter if they get the same pitching they had as last year. Sure, they could contend, but these moves aren’t made at an angle of trying to contend, they’re made at being flashy, generating headlines and publicity.
Another telling sign was the lack of no trade clause. Not because that, in and of itself means much, but because historically the Marlins have handed out no trade clauses. If this had been the Braves, nobody would have thought twice about the lack of a no trade clause, because that is just how the Braves operate. But with the Marlins, it was a deliberate change of strategy. They’re clearly not willing to commit to this ‘spending plan’ for the long haul.
At best, the Marlins and Mets are just switching places right now. Now, if they go out and sign C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols, then we’re perhaps talking a different scenario, but I still see that as unlikely. I think because of the trouble the Marlins give the Braves at times, we tend to forget that the Marlins were actually the last place team in the division. They finished 17 games behind the Braves.
Thus, I believe that the notion that the Braves have to “respond” to the Marlins moves is absurd. Will the Marlins be better this year? Absolutely, it’d hard to be a whole lot worse, they lost 90 games last year. However, I don’t really see a world in which they make a quantum leap forward to contention just because they made one splashy and stupid move (Jose Reyes’ contract) and one just plain stupid move (Heath Bell’s contract). The chances are much higher that the Marlins are looking to dump those contracts this season than they are actually contending.
The Atlanta Braves just need to worry about following the long term plan to building and maintaining the club that they’ve been so disciplined with over the past few years. This team needs a couple of nice moves to patch up a few holes, and they’re back in the playoffs, with a shot at winning the world series for several more years. About the only thing that could mess that up is if they tried to “respond to” the signing of Jose Reyes.
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completely agree with everything you said. the braves have the pieces to contend for the next 4-5 years. If the marlins make one more big move (i wont say pujols, but maybe cj wilson) then they may not have the ability to sign mike stanton to a long term contract, because im sure many people can see him getting a monster contract when he hits free agency, and i dont see the marlins being able to afford that, especially with hanley ramirez, gaby sanchez, and logan morrison.
Agree 100%! The only thing this move accomplishes is Headlines. My prediction is that in the long run (a year or more) the Reyes signing is likely going to cost them Hanley Ramirez. The reason that I say this is because Reyes game is dependent on speed and as he approaches 30 he is going to decline rapidly making him untradeable. Ramirez on the other hand comes with a much smaller commitment and would likely be the one they deal to continue paying Reyes.
Have you seen the dimensions of the new ballpark? The place is huge, it is almost a guarantee that it will LESS hitter friendly.
All the Braves need to do in 2012 is….SWING their FREEKING BATS – QUIT STRANDING MEN ON BASE (AKA) KILLING THE PITCHERS by expecting them to pitch A NO HITTER every freeking game! Swing the bats, hit the ball – RUN like you give a damn and score RUNS! GET IT?
@3
Wow, I hadn’t checked back on that since they were confirmed, last I had heard was roughly similar to the Ted. Yeah, hard to imagine that being hitter friendly. Thanks for the heads up, will edit the posting.
The way Liberty spends we could have the lowest payroll in our division in a few years…
@6
Liberty lets the Braves spend what the Braves make. We could have an individual owner like the Cleveland Indians, who basically just uses the team as a personal cash cow.
The reason that the Yankees and Phillies spend a lot more? Because they make a lot more. They make more than we ever did during our 14 year run of being in the playoffs.
I think Reyes will be fair value for the 1st 2 years of his contract but after that his situation will start to resemble Beltran’s when he was with the Mets. High prized FAs are good for gate takings but the risks are much higher due to contract length & dollars involved. Within the NL East we have seen our fair share of FA busts in the past 3 years, Bay, Lowe, Perez, F-Rod, Werth(too early??).
I actuallly think the Nats will be very troublesome in couple of years if Harper & Rendon develops as projected while Strasburg develops more as a pitcher. And of course the Yankees of the NL will continue to spend to keep their window open.
Braves need to sign a good LF, young, talented, and cost effective. I know of one who is all that and comes with a 8 million club option. BJ UPTON! This would make so much since trading JJ or Prado for Upton. Look at the potential lineup with Upton.
1. Bourne
2. Upton
3. Uggla
4. McCann
5. Freeman
6. Jones
7. Heyward
8. Pastornicky?
9. Pitcher
Having two guys a the top of the line up who can burn up the base pads, provide all star quality defense, and provide a little PoP. Im sold… Issue with this is Upton, McCann and Bourne will be FA after the 2012 season. Chipper retires will come off the books and Lowe’s salaray aswell. That should be enough to sign 2 of the 3.
As for Prado, can you play SS????
I believe both JJ and Prado will be traded. I would hate to see Prado go, but if it helps our team get better. OK!
As for Liberty Media. There is a tried and true saying, “You have to spend money to make money”. The money they are spending now isnt enough to contend. Dip into the Profits and sign some of these TOP FA’s and bring a Championship back to ATL. Its time to RISE UP! If the Falcons can “Rise Up”, why cant the BRAVES….
@9, how about this instead–
1-Bourn
2-Freeman
3-Uggla
4-McCann
5-Jones
6-Upton
7-Heyward
8-SS (Pastornicky?)
with the caveat that if Heyward’s stroke returns, he can move up in the order. Chipper will need days off, and will almost certainly have DL stretches. When Chipper is not in the lineup, flip-flop Heyward with whoever’s covering 3B.
Also, we’d better get good prospects back in your proposed trade–close to ready, as well. Nothing against Mr. Upton, who is probably a fine young man, but he is not worth two major league players all by his lonesome.
PS–Can we get Justin Upton, and convince either him or Heyward to play left? Pretty please?
Hmmm. BJ Upton? In the past 3 seasons he has posted 240/322/730? Ave of 17 Hrs and pretty good defense as CF. Consider Prado stats in the same period 291/336/771 while playing a few positions well but only ave 13 Hrs. The Rays may want to shed payroll but will have to throw in prospects if the Braves were to agree as Upton will be a down grade to Prado.
The Reds are apparently kicking the JJ tires again and could match up well if they are prepared to trade Alonso + prospects.
@3 and 5
http://www.fishstripes.com/2011/12/4/2610969/courtesy-of-fish-stripes-own-chris-towers-here-is-an-overlay-of-the
Article regarding the new ballpark dimensions. The thing is bigger than PETCO in almost all places.
I really think the Braves should take a gamble on Carlos Beltran, I feel he will be the 2011 Lance Berkman in 2012.
Don’t trade away Prado, he is a very good hitter. I would trade Jurrijens for outfield prospects, maybe someone is 1 or 2 years away to be ready. The Braves has too much pitching.
So the Marlins’ moves are flashy, without substance, and initiated by a sleaze artist who is looking to cash out at the peak before disaster strikes? How very South Florida! (ba dum BUM!)
In all seriousness though, the Marlins signing Reyes for his 30s and lavishing eight figures upon a closer is nothing to be afraid about. It reminds me a lot of the Mets recently lavishing eight figures on a closer with mental problems and signing Bay in 30s to a park where fly balls go to die.
If we have learned nothing from the Rays, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, and even the Yankees of the 90s, this fame is about developing young talent for the long-term and making the asture trade/signing to plug holes.
@ SC:
My buddy and I were looking at that yesterday, obviously not quite as severe as Petco but you have to wonder if the heavy SoFla air will play into holding up flyballs on days they have the roof open.
@9 @11 what about this lineup??
1-Bourn
2-A Cabrera SS
3-J Upton
4-Freeman
5-Uggla
6-McCann
7-Jones
8-Heyward
The farm system may have to take a hit to bring in both Adrubal and Justin but at least we will have two young players that are locked into their current contracts for the next three years. Plus this lineup will keep a balanced hitting order witch will be useful in late inning matchups.
I know this is off topic, but can we get CAC to come through here with the ban stick and clean up a little? The morons are starting to overrun these discussions just like they have on every other Braves forum.
Prado for BJ Upton? And then bat him 2nd? Seriously?
Signing Beltran without trading Prado? Really? With what money?
I must agree w/ you there! Something is fishy (ESPECIALLY THEIR OFFER TO PUHOLS!) sounds like drug deals. Don’t know how this is going to end up, but I hope it’s not like the Economic Collapse where the nation ends up paying for someone else’s stupid greed! The SEC better jump on this faster and harder than the Madoff thing!
I know this doesn’t fit the mold of a big thumper in left but would Torres be an option? Probably wouldn’t take much to get him from the Giants and he can play center if we lose Bourn after this year.
18: “I know this is off topic, but can we get CAC to come through here with the ban stick and clean up a little? The morons are starting to overrun these discussions just like they have on every other Braves forum.”
I second this. BRING IN THE STICK!
The offer the Pujols is hilarious. Franklin, you’re definitely on to something here. It seems highly unlikely that the Miami Marlins and their hideous logo take the paltry attendance numbers and drive them through the roof with the addition of a couple star players. Bottom line is that no one gives a shit about sports in Miami.
22: Maybe its a little bit of a reach but what do you suggest?
You are the moron!
The Mets tried to spend like the Yankees in recent years and bought in players such as Santana, Bay, F-Rod, Wagner, Beltran and it really didn’t work out. Their best players were home grown i.e. Wright & Reyes. Sure if Pujols was to sign he is a different calibre player but together with Bell & Reyes contract they will rip up the finances. I just can’t picture Loria willing to lose substantial amount of money for an extended period, 1 or 2 years maybe but if they are still losing money in year three he surely has a get out of jail plan?
The match ups for next year will be interesting assuming Pujols join the Marlins. Halladay/Lee/Hamels + Hudson/Hanson/Beachy pitching to a line up that could include Reyes/Pujols/Stanton….
If I was Frank Wren I would offer this for Hanley.
Miami gets
Jair Jurrjens
Martin Prado
Jairo Asencio
Brandon Hicks
Braves get
Emilio Bonifacio
Hanley Ramirez
Clay Hensley
The dug out chemistry between FG & HRam would probably prevent any deal with Marlins happenning unless FW is prepare for a season long soap opera.
@24, roger’s right. fredi would have to be included in that deal to make it worth the braves’ while.
Forget the soaps, just can frediot and all sorts of problems are solved.
I say the braves should sign Jimmy Rollins to play SS this may sound stupid but I believe it does three things. First it does the odvious it gives the braves a good SS. Second he works as a stop gap to tyler pastornicky. And finally onece chipper retires at the end of the year Rollins can move to third providing a replacement for chipper. Also this would allow the braves to trade both prado and jurjens for a left fielder
Tate, Rollins value as a SS will be diminished as his offense wouldn’t compare well for a 3B. If the Braves were to sign Rollins we would probably have to give him 4 or 5 years that means after chipper retires we will have less offensive production coming from 3B but a similar salary.
I think we should save some money this off season and let TP play SS and make a big splash next year when the FA class has more depth and we have more salary room. Only problem is the Redsox & Yankees are probably working on the same theory.
First of all, the Braves don’t need a SS. They have both Tyler Pastornicky and Brandon Hicks that can play SS. From my recollection, neither are bad defensively, with Hicks possibly being slightly above average.
2011 (Minors)
Pastornicky: .314/.359/.414 —> 459 ABs, 7 HRs, 27 SBs
Hicks: .252/.333/.446 —> 361 ABs, 18 HRs
I’d assume the Braves could go to Spring Training with Pastornicky as the leading candidate, but Hicks could/should probably make the team regardless as the backup SS/3B. Even if Chipper goes down for some time (as he inevitably will), you can probably expect about .750 OPS with decent to good power and good defense from Brandon Hicks.
Plus, its the cost-effective way.
Haha. This is unrelated, but it was reported on mlbtraderumors that the Pirates just signed Nate McLouth to a 1-year deal.
Though I swear to God, if he pulls a Melky Cabrera…
@CAC
rockies now showing interest in jurrjens as well as their documented interest in prado. what are we looking at in a package deal their…. i think they have to send one of blackmon, wheeler, or fowler and arenado and a low level minor league player wiht upside. Is this fair or am i being a bit of a homer in asking for a package like that
I believe the Braves should get cuban defector Cespedes and put him in LF, move Prado to SS until Chipper retires and have Pastornicky as a backup shortstop. This could be the lineup for 2012:
1- Bourn
2- Freeman
3- Heyward
4- McCann
5- Uggla
6- Cespedes
7- Jones
8- Prado
9- Pitcher
Cespedes is a great player that will make the lineup better. We don’t need to trade Prado. I think he is a good batter and will improve the production of our SS position for this year.
Then next year (2013) we go for David Wright as a free agent, re-sign McCann at C, and trade Prado and Jurrjens for a CF (or sign Granderson or Bourn as a FA) while give SS to Pastornicky.
I think the Braves are close to have an awsome team for years to come.
Fire Fredi and hire Hanley.
It’s as simple as that.
@31: I read your comment and saw “We should save some money and let TP play SS” and immediately thought of Terry Pendleton which would have been an awesomely hilarious comment. I know you were referring to Pastornicky but that gave me a good chuckle for a few minutes.
Whoever suggested we might sign Asdrubal Cabrera AND Justin Upton…stop living in the clouds, bud. And the other Upton brother would be one of the last people on my list as a LF candidate. Beltran is interesting though, what is he looking at in terms of cost?
I say trade JJ Prado and Hicks to Colorado for Fowler Smith and Jonathan Herrera.
jj for hanley straight up. i think it’s pareto optimal.
What do you guys think it would take for us to get Hanley? JJ and who else?
The marlins just signed Buerhle and have the biggest offer out on Wilson right now. They could definitely be a huge problem next year.
If what you’re saying about Loria is true-and it sounds more plausible than not-I wonder if it has created any concern within MLB. The contracts they’re throwing at every free agent has almost become comedic. Reyes, Bell, Buerhle, Wilson, Pujols, and probably now Fielder. They’re out on the Pujols sweepstakes only because his agent said that they were. It’s gonna suck ass to lose games to this team if they’re working outside of ethical standards.
Also the “I” on that shitty logo of theirs tucks under the fold of the jersey so it looks like Reyes’ jersey says “Mami.”
Kinda off topic but anyone heard anything on if the Braves could do something in the Rule V tomorrow?
@33, it is probably a real possibility that McLouth will rebound and hit 290/380/850 for the pirates with 25 Hrs… Just to make it even better he will hit 350+ against us with 7 Hrs.
AGon will probably hit 25 Hrs next season as well.
@35, the only problem with your proposal is that Prado cannot play SS for a full season. He may have covered SS for a few games but to have him there for a whole season is unrealistic.
Cespedes is reportly asking for $55-$60m over 5 years. Seems like a lot of money for an unproven OF?
Well Folks…Looks like Florida Stepping up to BIG DAWG status. Hope CJ Wilson goes back to the Rangers. If Pujols re signs to STL. Then the Angels are in position to trade for JJ. I would offer JJ for Peter Bourjos and Scott Downs and maybe even more. Contigent upon TX bringing Wilson back. Angels have crowded OF with plenty to spare. Keep prado as super utility bench guy. Dynamic bench of Ross, Prado, Hinske, Diaz (could be traded), Hicks (or vet back up SS.
Bourne
Bourjos
Heyward
Uggla
B-MAC
CJ10
Freddie
TP (Rook)
Pitcher
That would be more then worth it, Top 3 hitters all set the Table, steal bases, hi Obp, doubles machines in the top 3…then we allow Uggla, B-MAC, CJ10, FF to drive them in….sounds like Fun for #Braves.Nation
Reyes is probably worth it. Premium shortstops are hard to come by. He is an exciting player who can attract and retain fans. I still think Pujols would have been big with the Latin fans, and Miami should try to find another high caliber player like Pujols who is Latin to come to Miami.
[...] Capitol Avenue Club doesn’t believe the Braves need to answer the Reyes deal. [...]
@6
Liberty lets the Braves spend what the Braves make. We could have an individual owner like the Cleveland Indians, who basically just uses the team as a personal cash cow.
The reason that the Yankees and Phillies spend a lot more? Because they make a lot more. They make more than we ever did during our 14 year run of being in the playoffs.
——
That is BULLLL SHIITTT! COMPLETE BULLL SHIT!
The Atlanta Braves racked in 188 million in revenue in 2010. They had a 90 million dolllar payroll, and i believe they had to shell out 10 million plus in revenue sharing.
Where’s the other 80 plus million.
Don’t believe me? Check this out, http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/33/baseball-valuations-10_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Rank.html.
when i find the link showing where they paid over 10 million, i’ll post.
Liberty Media is draining the Braves dry in terms of payroll. The Braves and a 100 million dollar budget when Liberty Media took over. They slashed the budget by 10 million just because they could.