Reds Number One Target is Jair Jurrjens
December 8, 2011 at 12:58 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
I have been staying away from posting on every rumor, but I have been thinking about this one for a while now. According to Dan Knobler of CBS, the Reds’ number one target is Jair Jurrjens. He says there has not been much progress yet, but I see a match there.
The Reds are only a year away from winning the NL Central, and their team is not all that different from that surprisingly stellar season. Cincinnati has a very good offense and sound defense, but they lack the pitching to compete with the better NL teams at this point.
Not that Jair Jurrjens will be the cure to all of their pitching needs, but he could step in and be one of the better starters on their roster. The Rockies were previously talking about acquiring Edinson Volquez for Huston Street, which would have opened up a spot in the Reds’ rotation. Street was traded to the Padres yesterday, but I imagine the Reds would still like to move Volquez after his league worst ERA in 2011.
With Jurrjens being their top target, I think they would be willing to give up more than most teams would to acquire his services. I don’t believe the Reds are a very sabermetric-inclined team, so they could value Jurrjens’ consistently low ERA more than most teams do. The injuries he suffered over the past two seasons, along with the drop in velocity may worry the Reds’ scouts and management, but they need to improve their rotation and do not have the financial capabilities to do it via free agency.
As Baseball America points out, the Reds have too many position player bats with not enough positions to fill. Todd Frazier is a name that Jake Humphrey and I keep bringing up, because the Reds seem filled at third and left field. The Reds need a third base backup in the same way the Braves do, since Scott Rolen is their starter, but Juan Francisco can fill that role as he also has nothing left to prove at triple-A.
This makes Frazier rather expendable, and the Braves may even be able to acquire Drew Stubbs as well. Stubbs has hovered around league average offense while performing well defensively and on the base paths over his two and a third year career. Acquiring both Stubbs and Frazier could cost more than just Jair Jurrjens, but the Braves are capable of adding in a prospect to even out the deal. Stubbs will have four years of team control, which means he can take over center field duties if Michael Bourn leaves for free agency and also serve as the backup center fielder this season. With the bench having only one spot left open and the backup shortstop and center field positions unoccupied, the starting left fielder being the backup in center would be a nice addition.
Frazier, as I have mentioned in the past, provides a lot of defensive flexibility and would give the Braves the opportunity to trade Martin Prado for prospects. Frazier is currently the Reds’ ninth ranked prospect, and was the team’s number one prospect in 2010. He was average offensively in his 121 Major Leauge plate appearances, but has been solid in almost every facet of the game in his professional career. He can hit for some power, he has some plate discipline, he he has some speed, and he has the ability to play good defense at a number of positions.
There may be no more ideal team to trade Jurrjens to than the Reds, as both teams are looking for what the other team has. Going after these two players would immediately make the 2012 roster better and cheaper. Subsequently trading Prado after would also likely make the team better in the future. With the Reds targeting Jurrjens heavily, I am sure Wren and company have scoured their system and had talks about these two already. A trade with the Reds and specifically for these two players is far from certain, but it is a trade I would absolutely welcome with open arms.
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Street got traded to the Pads yesterday.
I’ve done the math, with Linebrink, McClouth, Lowe, Gonzalez and Sherrill gone the Braves have cut 21.20 million off their payroll from last year.
If they could get Ramirez in free agency at 12-13 million per year and Rollins for 7-8 million per year they would be ahead still by 2.120 million to 120,000.
Then if they do the trade with Miami for Johnson and Stanton for Jurrjens, Heyward and Prado they would be at about the same payroll as last year.
Instead they would have Bourne, Rollins, McCann, Ramirez/Jones, Uggla, Stanton, Freeman/Jones, Henske and the pitcher’s spot for a batting line-up.
I think that’s a pretty damn good batting order!
Billy Hamilton could be in play as well. The Reds have 3 SS’s in their top 10 prospects according to Baseball America, see link below. However, SS is reportedly a strength for the Braves’ farm system. I like the trade suggestion of Frazier & Stubbs for JJ + prospect.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612581.html
Why don’t we trade for prospects instead of Stubbs? Frazier + Robert Stephenson as a player to be named later since the Braves wanted him in the draft this past year.
@1
Thanks, somehow I missed that. Edited.
Jason, assuming you meant Aramis Ramirez, why spend $12-15 million dollars this year when you already have Chipper Jones? Are you going to start Ramirez and bench Chipper? That’s an unwise use of resources.
Rollins will want more years than we need him for. Pastornicky is close–and might even break camp with the Braves. Sign Jack Wilson or Little Nicky Punto or someone for a one-year deal, eat the offensive production you won’t get from them, and hold the spot down until Pastornicky’s ready–June, July, maybe.
Our missing pieces are best filled via trade, not free agency, at this point.
@2,
Seriously? This place is almost becoming unbearable…
Jason, make sure you include all of the raises that most of the players will be receiving whether its McCann with his incentives or the arbitration eligible players.
Ben, after looking at you’re proposal, that doesn’t really make the Braves a better team tomorrow. I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on that deal to sacrifice this year for the future. IMO Drew Stubbs is an average outfielder and isn’t an upgrade to the outfield, so why give away JJ?
@8
Stubbs is a better defender than Prado and their bats are more-or-less equal, and the addition of Frazier would net the Braves the ability to have a Prado-like player on the roster to fill in at third, second, first, or in the outfield. You get a better player in left with a very comparable, and higher upside, replacement in the utility role.
You also allow one of Medlen or Teheran to land a full-time starting gig, and I believe that both are better than Jurrjens at this point.
@ 2,
I’d hate for the comment section on this blog to get shut down again… let’s keep things within the realms and constraints of reality. After all, we’re not politicians.
Trading away Heyward is a pretty bad idea period, IMO. Trading away Jurrjiens upgrades us in more ways than one. First, we use the pieces we get for him to bolster the lineup, and then we get to upgrade the rotation by not having him there. Seems win-win to me, I don’t understand why people are against it. Because he had half of an All-Star caliber season?
Thanks for the interesting thoughts here…
@9 – Drew Stubbs in every way makes left field better for the braves and he is significantly cheaper…
For: 2011
AVG/OBA/HR/SB/WAR/dWAR
Stubbs – .243/.321/15/40/2.9/1.0
Prado – .260/.302/13/4/.8/0.5 (and note that the 0.5 includes time at 3b at which he is much better)
For: best career year (in terms of WAR)
AVG/OBA/HR/SB/WAR/dWAR
Stubbs – .255/.329/22/30/5.2/2.0
Prado – .307/.350/15/5/3.0/-0.8 (obviously he was playing second base)
And while you might point out that he strikes out a ton (205 last year v. Martin’s 52), who cares when his OBA is still higher than Martin’s?
I’d rather trade with the boston redsox for prospects and Jed Lowrie.
I’d trade Jair Jurrgens to the Red Sox for 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks, OF-Brandon Jacobs, and IF Jed Lowrie.
I personally do not believe the Braves have to make any moves other than signing Wilson or Punto and adding another outfield bat on the cheap. The Braves are good enough right now to make the playoffs & compete for the division. I would keep Prado and move JJ for prospects and a cheap bat.
Everyday Starters
C McCann
1B Freeman
2B Uggla
SS Pastornicky
3B Jones
LF Prado
CF Bourn
RF Heyward
Bench
C Ross
2B/SS ? (Wilson/Punto)
OF Diaz
OF/1B Hinske
OF ?
Starting Pitchers
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Teheran/Delgado (I am assuming we trade JJ for prospects &/or outfield bat)
Pen
Venters
O’Flaherty
Medlen
Vizcaino
? Fish/Martinez/Varvaro/Asencio for 2 spots.
Kimbrel
This team is good enough right now to win anywhere between 90-95 games.
Why Stubbs? Why not Chris Heisey?
Jurrjens for Heisey, Frazier, and RHP prospect Daniel Corcino.
@7 It’s not that bad, I’m sure he just forgot to mention how we are going to trade Chipper and Hudson to the Brew Crew for Braun and Greinke, then trade Greinke to LA for Kemp and Kershaw. Then we could move Braun to 3rd, and put Kemp in left. I mean Johnson, Kershaw, Beachy, Hanson in the rotation with Bourn, Rollins, Braun, McCann, Kemp, Stanton, Freeman, Uggla would be better
But then the question would be, what to do with ARam…
I like the thought of Drew Stubbs quite a bit, but has there been any indication that the Reds would be willing to trade him? It seems to me that a young, above average, affordable CFer would be a premium commodity these days…
Hey Ben,
Instead of trading JJ for a couple prospects, and possibly the same with Prado, is there any team that would take both of them in one deal and we could get a higher-quality player instead of a number of prospects?
No mention of Yonder Alonso? A straight up trade makes sense for both sides. Alonso is blocked by Votto and he can play left for us this year and for the foreseeable future.
I like the trade thoughts @ #13. The Sox’s have a lot of pieces the Braves could use. The Sox’s could use another starter and/or Prado……
@14
I think you have the best since of what the braves need. they had a great team last year that hit a bump in the road at the wrong time. It seems frivolous to over tinker with something that worked through 110 games of the season. we got rid of lowe (NEEDED) and move jj to fill in wholes i think the braves win the division(with the Phillies looking more and more weak)
I think realistic scenario 3 team trade: braves get will myers, drew stubbs/jay Bruce, kc get yonder alonso prado, reds get jurrjens and any royals pitching prospect not named Montgomery (odorizzi? lamb?)
@Ben D
I’d like the idea but why should the Reds feel more confortable with an hole in CF rather than SP? Don’t seem a win-win to make that happens
@2
Well, good thing you “did the math”
(Seriously, I thought there was so kind of idiot comment filter?)
Personally, I’m not a big Stubbs fan. Or Chris Young since we’re speaking of good CF defense, 20 HR, and 200 K’s. I like Frazier. He could be a solid regular one day at 3B or corner OF.
I say the Braves give up Lipka Jurrjens and Marek for Stubbs Frazier and Volquez
Brewers signed Seabass (1+1vesting opt)
i fail to see how stubbs represents any kind of upgrade here. prado and stubbs have had very similar paths in terms of WAR and OPS. Jurrjens, even given his projected decline, is still capable of an ERA in the mid 3′s, which is quite useful, especially given the health of our rotation.
considering these facts, i do not understand this website’s obsession with parting with jurrjens/prado. unless the braves can attain a LF who will likely post an OPS of at least .830, I do not see the benefit of removing the versatility of prado and the capable pitching of jurrjens.
also, i understand that hanley ramirez’s volatility and past issues with fredi gonzalez make his acquisition highly unlikely, but for a website which seemingly prides itself on its reliance on purely tangible statistics, how can it make blanket statements arguing that he would not be a useful player in this situation. in fact, if fredi gonzalez is the main barrier to adding a shortstop who is capable of posting a .900 OPS with 30 steals, then i would take my chances with a different manager before shutting the door on hanley.
27/
Marek just had tommy john, lipka’s value is low as can be, and Volquez had an ERA of 5.71 last season. Great trade.
is 23 an idiot? why would the reds ever in a million years do that?
To the #3 guy that did the math, you forgot to factor in that just about everyone on the team will have gotten some sort of raise this year, so the full 21 million isn’t available if they keep the same payroll for 2012.
“You also allow one of Medlen or Teheran to land a full-time starting gig, and I believe that both are better than Jurrjens at this point.”
Nope.
Trading JJ for a guy who struck out more than Mark Reynolds? Yikes. Don’t get me wrong, Stubbs has wheels, but I just don’t see the potential there for him to make drastic enough improvements in his approach to make him a good long-term option. Stubbs is exactly the kind of guy you should avoid in a trade. He has enough speed and pop to get you interested, but his approach will always limit the upside of both. This is the kind of guy that just leaves you bitterly disappointed once its all said and done.
I do like Frazier, though. I like the post overall. Just re-read my blurb and it sounded a little harsher than intended. Keep ‘em coming! Things are picking up finally this offseason.
@33 Disagree, Stubbs was worth 4 War in 2010 and 2.6 War in 2011. Bill James projects Stubbs 2012 season at .258/.336/.403. Sounds pretty good to me if we get a cost controlled CFer that plays solid defense and steals 30+ bases.
We need to get Hanley from Marlins..and Ramirez…move Chipper to Left he played there b4 and first base with Freeman somedays..I love Chipper but waiting till next year hurts cause Ramirez is good bat to take over full time..Hanley would be good bat at SS also..
@ 35
Excellent points, but I still think Stubbs could be a guy that ends up giving you a lot less than you expected. You can’t just brush off 200+ K’s and pretend they won’t be an issue.
Justin/29
You are spot on, particularly with Hanley.
The chance to acquire one of the game’s best players for his age 27-29 seasons at a reasonable salary for a seemingly low return price (Reyes, health issues, attitude would drive it down) is definitely something the Braves should pursue. Pastornicky and Simmons may be serviceable major leaguers one day but Hanley is the type of superstar that could put the Braves back on the map.
Last year this site was bearish on trading for Uggla because it was assumed the cost would be prohibitve. Then Uggla and the Fish Brass came to blows over his contract and he was gone for two rather expendable players. This website celebrated. The Marlins clearly don’t mind trading in their own division (see Uggla) and if Hanley continues to voice his displeasure, they are certainly more likely to deal him. If the Braves can buy low on Hanley like they did on Uggla, this seems like a no-brainer.
For the Braves, the question is what would the team have to give up for the deal to be beneficial in the short term but not too damaging to the future. For the Marlins, its a little different. Hanley is a once in a generation shortstop and they are trying to win now, not rebuild, so they need to replace his value somewhere on the field now in addition to the prospects they would demand.
JJ would definitely be part of this deal. The Braves have been looking to deal him and would need some salary relief before taking on Hanley’s contract. This leaves the Marlins with a rotation of Johnson, Nolasco, Sanchez, Buerhle, and JJ. Not bad. But not enough for Hanley.
The Braves farm system is so loaded that giving up any two of our top ten prospects along with JJ (excluding Teheran and only one of Delgado or Vizcaino) would not destroy the farm system.
Or the Fish may want a mix big league ready talent and prospects. In that case, Martin Prado/ Kris Medlen/Eric O’Flaherty could be a piece along with JJ and a prospect.
There is a chance the Marlins won’t look to trade their longtime SS or that the packages Ive outlined wouldn’t suffice. Fair enough. But it represents a chance to buy low on a potential hall-of-famer who would probably become the Braves’ best player. If Fredi doesn’t like that, he can go stare at the sun. Blindness may improve his ability to manage a baseball game.
200Ks are big concern. Just think his other pluses outweigh the Ks.
*ends up giving you less than you expected *offensively*
You’re right about having a cost-controlled CFer, though. Part of the problem for me is that he strikes out way too much to put him at the top of the order, which kind of limits the impact his SB’s can have. Maybe I’m being too nitpicky, but I just don’t like guys that K that often (i think i remember it was something like 30% of his at-bats? dont hold me to that).
@38
fair enough. i’m probably being too picky. just want to get the best return possible if they do decide to trade him. i think this team as is has a shot at 95 wins.
I do trust Wren, though. I don’t think he’ll trade JJ just for the sake of doing something.
I believe
A – Going to the BoSox for Jed Lowrie and prospects for JJ would be a good deal
B – Signing JRoll for 3 yrs to fill ss and give pastornicky time to mature, when he is ready, trade Jroll for prospects. His timely hitting would be much needed.
C – Sign Wilson, trade prado to reds for Stubbs and prospects.
Holding onto Prado would be the most intelligent idea i believe at this point but Signing JRoll is a must. It would add stability in the middle and potential prospects down the road when pastornicky is ready.
@37 – Exactly how I feel about the Hanley situation. If there even is a situation.
Stubbs has just enough skills to make a trade worthwhile.
Not sure if anyone has mentioned in yet, but does the Rockies trading Stewart make it even more likely that they target Prado? Wishful think has me wanting Arenando (sp?) but just a thought.
Hanley will NEVER play in Atlanta and Dan Uggla is WAY overpaid. Do you really believe Dan Uggla deserves to be the highest paid 2nd baseman in MLB?
I feel that the team should bite the bullet for the year with Prado in left. We know he can play 3rd base and his numbers are better when he is at 3rd. Or trade JJ and get a left fielder but keep Prado as a potential option for shortstop until Pastornicky is ready. One key aspect that no one is considering is that Heyward had a horrendous second year. If he can get back on the right track how many more wins is that potentially? My final thought is hopefully Fredi doesn’t overuse certain bullpen guys like he did last year.
Why not put Prado at short and trade jj for a big time lf bat?
@49
Prado isn’t a shortstop. He’s a poor defender at second, he would be even worse at short.
@29
I personally would love to acquire Hanley, given the right trade price and if the team has adequate financial resources to be able to pay him. It unfortunately is just not realistic at this point. Each of the writers on this blog bring something different to the table as well, and we are not always going to agree exactly with every thing another blogger says.
Even so, I agree that acquiring Hanley makes little sense from a price standpoint and even less sense when you consider the Braves standpoint with players who lack clubhouse character. Do i personally find much value in that type of stuff? Not as much as the Braves do, but I am not the one making the decisions, and the team feels that is a necessary component in order to succeed — as evident by the Escobar trade.
@33
Medlen has a lower FIP and xFIP than Jurrjens does, and I have no reason to believe that would change going forward. Medlen’s changeup is better than any pitch Jurrjens has ever had. His two-seamer is no slouch either. No reason to believe that Jurrjens would be better of the course of 180 innings than Medlen would be. Teheran is also one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. He had is cup of tea last year, and should also be as effective as Jurrjens this season. When Jair was acquired from the Tigers he was not much more than a middle of the rotation arm, and that is currently the same type of pitcher he is.
—-
For the people who do not understand the value of Stubbs. Many of you also want the Braves to improve against left-handed pitching.
Stubbs vs. LHP in ’11: .319/.418/.478
For his career vs. LHP: .273/.353/.481
Prado vs. LHP in ’11: .245/.316/.357
For his career vs. LHP: .273/.342/.432
One is clearly better against left-handed pitching, and also provides much more power — which is something the Braves’ lack sorely against southpaws. Add that to the fact that Stubbs is monumentally better at advancing bases on his own via the stolen base and a better defender, and you get a player that is easily more valuable than the other.