My Take on the Speculated Reds Trade
December 10, 2011 at 3:56 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
The common theme of CAC over the past week is the Braves should acquire ________. There has been plenty of speculation about a potential trade with the Cincinnati Reds. For the first time in a while, I think we may have a disagreement between the writers here. Earlier this week, Ben wrote about a potential trade with the Reds involving Drew Stubbs and Todd Frazier. We have since learned that the Reds interest in Jair Jurrjens isn’t as high as originally anticipated, but I still disagree with the proposed trade.
First off, I haven’t watched Stubbs play all that much in person. Basic fielding metrics show that he doesn’t cover all that much ground. His career UZR over two and a half years is just 4.3. It’s hard for me to comment on this issue otherwise, but that’s beside the point.
As far as his strikeouts go, it’s not that he swings too often. He swings at 42.7% of pitches, 2.6% below the league average. The problem lies within the zone. When he swings at a pitch inside the strike zone, he connects only 82.8% of the time, 5.2% below the league average. That is a significant difference. On changeups in particular, Stubbs swings at 74.0% of them in the zone but only makes contact 60.6% of the time. Ouch.
Stubbs really struggles against off-speed pitches against both left and right-handed pitching. He produced negative offensive values against every significant off-speed pitch FanGraphs.com tracks. I am not sure I need to say much more to prove the frustrations that may come with a player like Stubbs in the lineup on a regular basis.
Frazier, the other player surrounded with speculation, was once considered to be an elite prospect. Since he was promoted to Triple-A Louisville in 2009, Frazier has hit .262/.338/.457 and .232/.289/.434 in 121 plate appearances in the big leagues this year. Since the Reds once had so many elite offensive prospects, they had to make defensive changes when necessary to fit all of their talent on the field. In turn, Frazier has played 177 games in left field, 112 at shortstop, 88 at third base, 72 at first base, 39 at second and 12 as a DH in his minor league career.
According to Baseball America, he dropped to the Reds #9 prospect in 2011 after he was previously ranked in the top five. In the 2011 Prospect Handbook, their staff claims a best case scenario would be as a Ben Zobrist type of player – good power with a decent average and defensive flexibility.
The Braves are looking for a power bat, if anything to play left field this season. I still find it hard to believe that they acquire one without Prado moving considering his value. His .260/.302/.385 line in 2011 may be down from .307/.350/.459 line in 2010, but his BABIP decreased .059 in that stretch. It is reasonable to expect something between the two in 2012 which would make him an above average hitter.
Based on “The Book,” the current optimal lineup should look something like this, though it can be open for debate:
1 Martin Prado
2 Chipper Jones
3 Dan Uggla
4 Brian McCann
5 Jason Heyward
6 Freddie Freeman
7 Michael Bourn
8 Tyler Pastornicky
9 Pitcher
Personally, I’d take Prado over Stubbs at the plate. Say the Braves did make that trade but don’t trade Prado. Then they have some crazy platooning going on. Considering Fredi Gonzalez’ decision making abilities, it may not be the best idea. As a result, the Braves would be trading Jurrjens, a 2 or 3 SP for essentially two bench bats, neither of which provide much power.
I see this deal as two players that have failed to live up to expectations in exchange for an All-Star pitcher. The cost/benefit just doesn’t make sense.
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“I see this deal as two players that have failed to live up to expectations in exchange for an All-Star pitcher. The cost/benefit just doesn’t make sense.”
You aren’t accounting for the salary relief at all though, which was Ben’s main benefit to this hypothetical deal. By saving the ~$5m from Jurrjens, and then potentially another $5m from trading Prado, you can acquire a big-time bopper for LF and play Frazier in Prado’s UTIL role. Stubbs would be the best 4th OF in the game. The cost-benefit is contingent on the money side of things, because it’s what the Braves could do with that money that is really valuable.
Dave,
I understand that the Braves would save money due to Jurrjens’ salary, but there isn’t anything on the market right now that could help them from that point of view. Therefore, I don’t feel the salary relief is important at this time but could change mid-season if they need to acquire another big bat.
I haven’t seen a plausible trade scenario for Prado or Jurrgens, whether its the Reds, the Rockies or anyone else, that that would make the team better in 2012. Prado, in particular, is a better and more valuable player for the Braves than Seth Smith or Drew Stubbs. I hope that if a trade happens, the pieces involved are more appealing than anything we’ve seen thus far.
sorry but i have to disagree with the “optimal lineup” i am a new school metrics type of guy normally but i dont know if you can fully quantify the value of having michael bournes speed in the leadoff hole to those batting behind him. not to mention the fewer running opportunities he would have stuck behind freeman.
also not sure on having the free swinging prado at 1 even without bourne. that seemed to be a part of his struggles last year, correct?
great stuff to ponder over the break though keep up the good work!
They should Not trade Martin Prado or Jair with them on the team its strong n they should just move Prado to shrotstop n they could signed a free agent outfielder theirs some around that could help Braves n wit Jair in the rotation they have one of the strongest rotation in the league Braves all the way
Kevin,
Thanks for replying. I think Carlos Beltran can be had for pretty cheap, and he can still really, really hit. Last year he played almost every day and slugged almost .600 against lefties (few players in the game are capable of that) and had an OBP of over .400 against righties. And from ’09-’10 he was hurt a lot, yes, but when he played he raked. I like Beltran for LF (and backup CF and RF) and Prado in super-sub role. Just my preference. But I understand not dealing JJ for an underwhelming return. I mean, he’s not THAT expensive. Maybe if they throw in a high-upside younger prospect along with Stubbs and Frazier?
I’m curious about the salary relief argument as well. I sense a contradiction in Wren’s public statements – if you claim that you will only move Prado and Jurrjens in deals to make the 2012 club better, why discuss a package deal for Myers/Cain or either player for Smith/Wheeler? I kind of like both of those deals, but they provide very little improvement over Prado and dealing Jurrjens certainly weakens the team’s pitching depth, even if Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Teheran offers a potentially stronger top 5. It really makes me wonder if Wren really does have an interest in signing Beltran or Willingham – two guys who WOULD provide an upgrade over Prado and would also necessitate salary relief. I know DOB says that Wren is not interested in either, but didn’t he say the same about Michael Bourn?
I feel that most of the trade speculation is due to fear of the Miami Marlins… talk about a sentence I never expected to type. I still believe the Braves are the 2nd best team in the division behind the Phillies. Beltran isn’t a bad choice, depending on the price. If they sign him, it probably won’t be until late in the off-season when his price drops.
JJ is such a polarizing player, I don’t think this argument will ever end. Either you think he is the player we say in the first half of last season(a #1), or the player the metrics show(a #3/4 SP)
I think he is closer to the metrics side. I think that Delgado/Minor/Teheran/Medlen can pitch as well as him. So I think the Braves should trade him for whatever they can get. I don’t like their chances of improving on Prado in LF, so I’d rather it be the prospect route.
3 step offseason plan: Trade Prado for Seth Smith and Wheeler. Trade JJ for Frazier and a top reds prospect. Sign Nick Punto.
A platoon of Diaz and Smith would have an OPS of .880 against LH and .878 against RH (if they maintain their three year averages. Bench for 2012 is Diaz, Hinske, Ross, Punto, and Frazier. Punto and Frazier become back up options for Tyler at SS. Wheeler is our back up CF in case Bourn leaves next year.
The most important part: Use the $10M we free up from the JJ and Prado trade to extend our young players that want to take the cach now (i.e. Heyward, Freeman, Beachy).
braveslifer,
That’s a pretty good plan. The freed up money could be used as you said to lock up young players, or later in the offseason or before the July 2012 trade deadline to help for 2012. It’s always good to go into a season in which you expect to contend with room in your budget to make acquisitions.
Writing a piece for next week about the Braves and the Matt Moore extension. I think JJ is a 3 – I wrote an article for ESPN in August about his expected regression. I do not feel Teheran, Delgado or Medlen can duplicate Jurrjens’ success in 2012 though.
If JJ or MP gets traded, I’m very confident in Wren getting a return similar to what he received for Vazquez–or even better. I’d rather have an elite prospect and maybe someone who could back up Pastornicky, or maybe just 2 prospects–sign Jack Wilson or Renteria–and keep Prado in LF. Martin will undoubtedly hit better than he did in 2011, if his numbers in every other season of his professional career are evidence enough. His 2010 numbers were fantastic until he was finally pulled down by the 4 injuries he was playing through. Someone like Beltran would obviously be somewhat better, but is more expensive, won’t sign a 1 year deal, and is a huge injury risk.
A lot of people seem to want to trade JJ just to trade him. If we can’t get an elite OF prospect in any of the deals then I really don’t see the point. No Prado, a potential Pastornicky/Simmons bust, and not extending Bourn means that in 2013 we have potential hole in LF, CF, 3B, SS. We don’t have anyone worth a shit in the outfield dept in the farm system, and the jury is gonna be out for a while on The Terd. I would like to see strong prospects in a deal and not these schlubs from Cincinnati.
Since we got screwed by JJ’s second have injuries which really sunk his value, I really don’t see a problem with a rotation of Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Beachy, Minor in 2012. Same shit as last year and bring up Teheran/Delgado/spot start Medlen when someone is injured.
p.s. sorry, too much coffee.
@3
Speed is wasted at the top of the lineup. Have you read the “required reading” link?
@the conversation
I almost think best case scenario at this point is to start the season with JJ and hope he stays healthy enough to trade him to a contender mid-year as a rental given that the market doesnt seem as deep for him as it might be believed.
This gives the Braves the option to weigh the current SS/3B/LF issue and see where an upgrade is needed. Sure, the Braves may pay more then than right now, but we will get more. (Ie. is Chipper healthy or has Prado become our everyday 3rd basemen? What’s our production out of LF? Is Past ready?)
(Of course, it all depends on JJ pitching well and being healthy)
Kevin – Great piece. I felt Stubbs was overrated as well, and Frazier seems like a utility type. I think Ben is underrating Jair Jurrjens and overrating pitchers like a 21 year-old Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen, who hasn’t pitched big innings since 2009.
Seth Smith and Tim Wheeler
Drew Stubbs and Todd Frazier
Neither trade is a good one for the Braves and Jair Jurrjens. I sure hope the Red Sox and Rangers are two additional teams that Wren is talking too.
@11 Thanks man.
@12 Cant wait to read the article. There is a reason why the Rays have arguably the two most valuable trade chips (fangraphs series reference) in Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. I hope the Braves can find a way to mimic the Ray’s successful extensions. Thanks for all you do.
Could trade Jurrjens to Texas Rangers because there will be a huge posting bill on Yu Darvish would almost be cheaper and the rangers have some depth. Daisuke Matsusako posting bill was over 50 million dollars and he signed for 52 million wouldn’t the rangers just be better off with jj.
Jair Jurrjens is nothing compared to Yu Darvish. Big fan of his.
The Braves really aren’t forced to make a big move with such solid pitching and an above normal lineup but minor league offense could use some help for the future, but do have an interesting position with pastornicky.
Braves Lineup
1CF. Michael Bourn
2LF.Martin Prado
31B.Freddie Freeman
4C.Brian Mccann
52BDan Uggla
6RF.Jason Heyward
73BChipperJones
8SSTylerPastornicky
9Pitcher
Pitching
1 Tim Hudson
2 Tommy Hanson
3 Brandon Beachy
4 Julio Teheran
5 Mike Minor
No but he is a cheaper option if you can’t afford 100 million on Darvish and you really can’t know how Darvish will improve and adapt in a tougher league. Jurrjens has the capability to be an allstar but he will have to have a better season of his.
Issue with the Rangers is that they really need an ace(or even strong #2) at the top of the rotation and Jurrjens isn’t much better than what they already have. Blue Jays and Red Sox could certainly use a pitcher of Jurrjens quality. Hopefully Wren has more talks than the ones we’ve heard – as the returns mentioned have been poor, at best.
Well Darvish is also a sealed bid which should make things very interesting. It’s like a bad recreation of “The Scout.” You may remember it as another terrible Brendan Fraser (who looks extremely similar to Ryan Braun) movie.
The whole JJ dilemma is tough. I’m with the group that see him as a at best 3 starter in the league. The problem lies in the Braves depth at the position. Teheran won’t benefit from more time in AAA so he needs to be in the rotation. Delgado will start there but is ultimately a legit mid season call up in normal circumstances. Vizciano would be best served as a starter as well as a serious trade option mid season. We have so many potential starters that somebody needs to get traded and JJ is the one I would take the risk trading at this point.
@15/
“I think Ben is underrating Jair Jurrjens and overrating pitchers like a 21 year-old Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen, who hasn’t pitched big innings since 2009.”
Last time I checked, Medlen pitched in 31 games in 2010, and was pretty successful in the process. AND, Medlen did pitch 2 pretty big innings last season. Only 2, but big. He’s just a good pitcher who should be reliable when healthy and properly used. And if you’re slotting the number 1 pitching prospect in baseball as your #4-5 starter is that really overvaluing him?
I think that the marlins might be interested after losing out on wilson but are they willing to give up what the braves want and we don’t need hanley.
I don’t see the Marlins trading any Major League talent for other Major League talent right now. They’re gunning for it all. I doubt the Braves will trade Jurrjens within the division.
I think the difference between Hanley not being an option (Frediot) and “not needing Hanley” are quite different. Every team that isn’t fielding Reyes, Alexei Ramirez, or Tulo “needs” Hanley Ramirez, or should at least want him on the team. If we had Hanley we could start Greg Norton in LF and not worry one bit about the offense. Just one of the perks of having our shitty manager.
@23 and @Kevin
From what I saw, I would think Delgado might be the better option in the rotation at the beginning of the season. I’d like Teheran to be absolutely ready before taking over a spot full time. Kevin, which one do you think would benefit from more minors work?
(it’s a cold and boring night so far in New York City haha)
It’s 25 degrees where I’m at, so I feel your pain. I think Delgado is more likely to start the year in Triple-A. If Jurrjens remains in Atlanta, I think Teheran will go to the pen. Mike Minor to the bullpen makes no sense with the abundance of lefties and his experience level. There is still plenty of time left in the off-season for moves to be made. Wren has no problem waiting for the best possible offer.
@29 If Teheran goes to the pen. That means we have Kimbrel, Venters, EOF, Vizzy, Teheran, Medlin, and C-Mart. With Hoover, Fish, Varvaro, and others in the minors. That is just a crazy talented BP loaded with depth. We had o’ventbrel last year. What recomendation would you have for a nickname is we add Medlin, Vizzy, and Teheran to it?
Kevin,
4-7 in your batting order are all LH hitters. I think old school thinking and The Book would agree that lineups shouldn’t bunch lefties. I’m not sure of the solution.
BTW, I laughed out loud at your “where the heck are these people coming from?” in the previous thread.
For some reason, I didn’t even think about that. 6-8 are interchangeable so you can still make it work. Thanks for pointing that out.
Doesn’t matter, Fredi’s lineup would never ever resemble that remotely. It’ll more likely always be:
1. speedster
2. bunter
3. chipper
4. slugger
5. other “slugger”
6. bunter #2
7. Heyward (bunter #3 to put him in his place)
8. pastornicky/old castaway SS
9. pitcher (bunter #4)
@ 33:
Fredi should look at The Book. But he won’t.
@ 34
pssstt.. that was the joke
[...] Kevin’s article against Stubbs [...]
I’ve been one of those pushing to trade JJ and Prado, even though Prado is one of my favorite players. I figure we have tons of pitching, and we have two quality second basemen, and no left fielder. So trading for a left fielder makes sense. The crux of disagreement over this seems to be the validity (or not) of the last of these three propositions, “we have no left fielder.”
There may not have been a thorough and sifting discussion of this. My amateur view has been that Prado lacks range and arm to be an above average left fielder. More importantly, he seemed to not be in 2010 batting form even before and after his absence from the leg infection.
So the question really is whether Prado’s dip from a 4.4 to a 1.6 WAR was the physical result of the infection, or was it due to his dissatisfaction with playing left field? To me, Prado has never looked fluid or athletic in left field, and I’m sure that for him the entire game experience is changed when playing out there.
The front office and the manager have an inside track on answering this question, but I would appreciate the collective wisdom here. But I think this is basic issue when pondering a trade of JJ/Prado for a left fielder. You either think Prado can thrive in left field, or you sense that idea is problematic.
I say trade Prado Lipka and Cory Harrilchak to the White Sox for Quentin and Eduardo Escobar. Then trade Escobar J.J and Jairo Asencio to the Reds for Todd Frazier Josh Fellhauer and Ryan LaMarre or trade JJ Hoover and Marcus Lemon for Carlos Lee and Brandon Barnes if any of those trades dont work out
@30
Fish has to stay on the 25-man roster for the entire season or we have to return him to the Angels since he was a Rule 5 pick.
@conversation
I really like the idea of signing Beltran, but my concern is that we don’t have the money. At best, I see Beltran signing for 1yr./$12 million or 2/$20 million. The cheaper option would be to work out a trade with the White Sox: Jurrjens for Quentin (at least those would be the two major players dealt). Then again, I don’t think that the Sox really need JJ.
I guess that the best option is going to be to stay with Prado in left (since no one else we can sign via free agency is going to be worth more WAR than him [excluding Beltran]) and either trade JJ for prospects now, or trade him for something we need mid-season.
I’m waiting on the 3 team deal to get made that sends Hanley to Atlanta, Pastornicky to Miami, and Frediot to the Toledo Mudhens.
@40 the trade doesn’t make sense for the Mudhens!!
Prado’s dip in WAR is probably a combination of the infection and the replacement level of a LF being much higher than a 2B.
Beltran would be an ideal pick up at the right price and contract length. The Angels picked up Bobby Abreu before the 2009 season when he held out for a multi year deal and none was forth coming and ended up taking $5m for 1 year with LAA. I don’t think we will get that lucky but maybe Beltran will take 1 yr at $10m late in the season???
JJ will probably put up solid numbers next year as a #3 or #4 starter but the Braves will not be able to sign him long term. I think this is more of a motivation to trade him this offseason, to a potential trade partner JJ will provide them 2 more years of team control if the trade happens this offseason. If we keep JJ for 2012, his trade value will be diminished next off season unless he replicate his 2011 1st half for the entire 2012 season. With the new CBA the draft pick(s) compensation is now not as attractive either. Same issue will probably arise next offseason for Tommy Hanson as he is also a Boras client.
@27
I don’t think you can blame that entirely on Fredi. He wasn’t even here when the Braves traded away an above average SS that would’ve been under team control through 2013 to put us in this situation in the first place.
Yes, we also got Pastornicky in that deal, but we likely wouldn’t have needed him because Simmons will hopefully be ready by 2014.
A trade I’d like to see:
JJ, Prado and Pastornicky (maybe Simmons instead?) to the White Sox for Quentin, A. Ramirez and Beckham. We get the slugging LF we need, a long term SS solution and a backup for Uggla and Chipper. The White Sox get some salary relief, a good pitcher, and the good infielder they need in Prado.
In no realistic world would the White Sox EVER take that trade.
@34
In Frediot’s defense, he did LOOK at the book. However, due to a lack of pictures and a surplus of words/math, it just made his head hurt.
Kevin, the White Sox will pull the trigger on the trade proposed by @43 right after we flip Hinske for Longoria!
Haha @ 44. @ 43: there’s no way – plus it seems like the front office is set on Pastornicky, so I doubt they’re going to be dealing for anything beyond a back-up at this point.
Seems to be the case, but I do like how Wren keeps his poker face and doesn’t let his guard down until the right moment. He definitely learned that from the disaster that was his first offseason.
What I would like to see happen is the Braves trade JJ for a CF prospect (and possibly other prosepcts) in case they can’t resign Bourne, sign Beltran to play LF, sign Punto as a backup to Pastornicky, and keep Prado as a super utility player. Prado can give Beltran, Chipper, Uggla, and even Freeman days off to keep them healthy.
First off, I cannot stress enough how much I love this site. Enjoy the Braves talk in December. Some great responses in here.
Second, I’m with Kevin. I don’t think we should trade Prado. It is a huge risk getting rid of him. Lets just say we do trade him for Seth Smith or Drew Stubbs. What happens when Chipper misses 40 games? Do you really want Brooks Conrad, Brandon Hicks or Drew Sutton starting in roughly 25% of the games in the 2012 season? Not to mention their is the chance Prado returns to his ’07-’10 form and goes out and hits .315 with 40 doubles and 15 HR.
Maybe we can dump Diaz in a package with JJ and pick up Tony Gwynn Jr if he’s non-tendered. Wishful thinking.
MLB Network Radio reports AGon signs with the Brewers. One-year contract with a vesting option for 2013
@43/GGinBham
Yeah, and then we can trade Hinske and Brooks Conrad to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Paul “Bunyan” Goldschmidt. Then we can move Freddie Freeman to LF, and move Prado to SS. (sarcasm)
People… think before you speak/type.
Hinske and Conrad for Goldschmidt might be my new favorite trade. Really pushing for that one.
Can Teheran play SS?
Tim@56 Chipper is a great player and leads by example but his ‘Mentoring’ ability is not great. You only have to look at Yunel Escober for an example. Yunel was nowhere near the diva that HRam is and we still manage to run him out of Atlanta, I cannot see how the same club house could help HRam with his attitude?
Beltran or JD Drew at a discounted rate would be fantastic.
Just because someone is a diva and you don’t see it, that doesn’t mean that it is any more or any less an impact on the clubhouse than the guy who is plastered all over the news. I highly doubt that has any reflection on Chipper. There are just some people you can’t have any influence over no matter how hard you try.
We’re going into the philosophical here, and it just feels like you missed a bit, Roger. We probably have little idea how good or how bad Chipper’s mentoring ability is. You could say that he has had a good-to-great impact on plenty of players over the last 17 years. You could also say that he has had a bad-to-mediocre impact on plenty of players. Cherry picking one player, that being Yunel Escobar, does not give you any definitive proof, just as ~100 at-bats doesn’t give any definitive proof that a player is a major leaguer.
That being said, I don’t really care to see Hanley Ramirez on this team.
@54/Kevin Orris
On the line with Frankie Jaybird right now. Gonna let him know it’s in the bag. Just gonna tell him that all he has to do is convince the Diamondbacks to make the deal, work up a contract, and sign Brooks Conrad to a deal so he’ll actually be on the roster. I’m confident in this.
Since my previous post was met with derision, I’ll try a different tack:
Asking the experts on this site, what would it take to get Quentin and Alexei Ramirez from the White Sox?
Alternatively, what would it take to get J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones from the Orioles?
@GGinBham
A trade with the Sox for Quentin and Ramirez would probably cost Beachy, Delgado, and other solid prospects. Kenny Williams wants pitching to rebuild the Sox, so that is what we’d have to give up. I’d also think that the asking price for Ramirez would be higher than for Quentin.
Since the O’s just signed Hardy to a three-year extension, I really doubt they’d move him. I’m sure he can probably be had in the right deal, but he’s going to be expensive. Jones is most likely untouchable. The Orioles would have to be overwhelmed to move Jones.
That said, Morosi and Rosenthal have reported that the O’s and Braves discussed a trade involving both Jurrjens and Prado, but there was no word on who the Orioles would be sending to Atlanta.