The Braves and WAR, Who Can Break 4.5?
December 21, 2011 at 5:56 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Player Analysis, Statistical Analysis
In 2011 the Braves were a game away from making the playoffs despite having no players with a Fangraphs WAR above 3.7. The team was well on pace to make the playoffs before the monumental collapse, as we all know, so expecting this team as currently built to again contend for a playoff spot is certainly plausible.
Not heavily relying on any individual player offensively or on the mound and still being able to win 89 games is very impressive. It is good that the Braves have the depth throughout the roster to be able to compete with the upper echelon of National League teams, but top tier production from a few players could push this team into contention for the NL East and assure them a wild card, barring a rash of injuries.
Below are the most likely candidates to have a season worth 4.5 Fangraphs WAR or more, in order of most likely to achieve said status, in my opinion. ZiPS projections for the Braves come out tomorrow, and we will see where they rate each player as well. I will comment on those projections around the same time tomorrow. For the rest of the post, I will simply state WAR when speaking of Fangraphs WAR.
Jason Heyward
We all know the story behind Heyward, an uber prospect with a sensational rookie season that struggled immensely during his sophomore campaign. Despite the poor offensive year, he was still able to produce a 2.2 WAR playing his entire season in right field, where he receives a -5.1 positional adjustment.
Heyward was still able to be the Braves’ most valuable outfielder and third most valuable position player according to WAR by playing excellent defense and being solid on the base paths. In fact, if you replace UZR with DRS, Heyward becomes a 2.7 win player instead of 2.2, which would make him more valuable than any position player aside from Brian McCann. That is pretty impressive given the fact that he had the least amount of plate appearances of the entire top five.
I expect Heyward to bounce back. He may not perform as well as some imagined in terms of the power numbers, but he is still an excellent player with solid secondary skills that help his overall value.
Three year average ( two seasons): 3.65
Fan projection via Fangraphs: 5.0
My projection: 4.8
Michael Bourn
Bourn has hovered around this mark for each of the past three seasons, mostly due to his position, base running, and defense. UZR disliked Bourn’s defense in 2011, but I put more of that on the metric’s massive volatility than on Bourn’s skills defensively decreasing. For what it’s worth, DRS had Bourn at -1, so it is possible that he had a poor season in the outfield, but a combined +27 over the past three seasons suggest his true talent level is among the best in the game in center.
He probably will not have as much luck on balls in play as he had last year (.369 BABIP in ’11 compared to .341 for his career), but he has had two seasons with a mark over .366, so it is possible. Bourn should also walk a bit more, which should keep his on base percentage around the same .345-.350 level that it has hovered around throughout most of his career, sans 2008.
Three year WAR average: 4.6
Fans projection via Fangraphs: 4.1
My prediction: 4.5
Brian McCann
McCann was in the midst of one of his best seasons ever until he ran into a late season slump. In the season’s final two months, he batted just .180/.292/.346 compared to .306/.374/.514 from April until July 26. That was the last day McCann played before hitting the disabled list, and he returned on August 14 when he put up that awful slash line to end the year. There is legitimate reason to believe the injury hurt his performance, so I do not expect the poor tail end of the season to linger on into 2012.
The rough end of the year left McCann’s WAR at 3.7, the lowest since 2007 and second lowest of his entire career. McCann has a lot of games and innings behind the plate now, so injuries could unfortunately become more prevalent. Hopefully he is able to stay injury free, but at this point I am at least a bit skeptical of whether that will happen.
Three year average: 4.2
Fan projection via Fangraphs: 5.0
My projection: 4.1
Brandon Beachy
Beachy is my pick to provide the most value from the rotation in 2012. His phenomenal rookie year was somewhat quiet on the national scene due to his low win total (he ended the season just 7-3) and the fact that he threw just over 140 innings.
Beachy’s strikeout rate was simply outstanding, and there is little reason to expect that number to drop below one per inning. He led the league among starters who threw over 140 innings, slightly edging out Zack Greinke. Even if Beachy’s strikeout rate regresses, expecting over a 16.2% decrease (the percentage difference between his 10.74 mark and 9.00) in his strikeout per nine rate is being pessimistic. Most signs point to Beachy’s ERA decreasing, as the spread between his ERA and FIP, SIERA, and xFIP is rather vast. If he remains healthy and all things remain equal, Beachy should be the top pitcher on the Braves’ staff next season in terms of WAR.
Three year average (one season): 2.8
Fan projection via Fangraphs: 3.6
My Projection: 4.0
Tommy Hanson
Hanson suffered a similar fate as McCann. Stellar start to the year followed by an injury, trailed by an attempt to play through the injury which subsequently destroyed his statistics. In his first 17 starts, he had a 2.44 ERA with 109 strikeouts and 35 walks in 103.1 innings. His season at that point was comparable to almost anyone in the league, and there was little reason to expect his performance to drop the way it did, though a slight regression was expected due to the spread between his ERA and FIP.
Three of those 17 starts actually occurred after returning from the disabled list, but the rotator cuff tendinitis began to bother Hanson in mid-July, causing him to throw just 26.2 more innings in the season to the tune of an 8.10 ERA. Hanson’s ERA ballooned up to 3.60 from the aforementioned 2.44, and he missed the remainder of the season due to the complications in his shoulder.
I expect Hanson to return to his ~3.30 FIP performance, but the shoulder issues leave some cause for concern that he will be able to throw 200 innings as he did in 2010. Expecting him to pitch around 180 innings is probably more realistic at this point, which will likely cause him to fall shy of the 4.5 win mark.
Three year average: 2.9
Fan projection via Fangraphs: 3.2
My projection: 3.8
Dan Uggla
The joke around the Braves blogosphere and on twitter was that Dan Uggla should have won the comeback player of the year due to his performance in the second half of last season compared to his performance to start the year. The oddness of Uggla’s start to his tenure in Atlanta is well documented, and he straightened everything out to put up a rather productive offensive season that was just a tad below what was to be expected based on his career averages.
Uggla’s performance seems to be tied to his BABIP. When he has had a BABIP north of .300, he has put up 4.5, 4.6, and 4.9 win seasons. When his BABIP is below .300, he has had 2.7, 2.7, and 2.5 win seasons. In fact, in the years that his BABIP was below .300, it was never eve above .279. Uggla has only had a BABIP below .279 or above .309, which to me is just incredibly strange. This makes projecting him on a year-to-year basis very difficult, as he has really only had very good or decent seasons, with no solid good years in between.
Three year average: 3.4
Fan projections via Fangraphs: 3.7
My projection: 3.5
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————
Tim Hudson was excluded from this exorcise due to the fact that this version of WAR dislikes him so much. Fangraphs’ WAR uses FIP, which does not account for Hudson’s ground ball tendencies. He has consistently outperformed his FIP over his career, and should be one of the top pitchers on the staff if his back injury does not cause him problems over the course of the season.
If my projections are accurate (far from certain), the Braves will have five players with a WAR higher than 3.7. The outfield would go from being an annual weakness to potentially harnessing the top two most valuable players on the roster. A full season of Bourn and a rebound from Heyward make that rather likely, so the projections do not have a ton of optimism in them.
A newly acquired left fielder could also provide performance north of 4.5, but I doubt this is the type of player the Braves actually do acquire. It seems as though Wren is confidence that his team will be able to rebound, in the depth of the rotation, strength of the bullpen, and anticipated performance of the offense. Make no mistake, the Braves still have a quality roster despite being very quiet this offseason.
Loading ...
Just received my Brandon Beachy #37 shirtsey in the mail.
I’m sure we’re all big fans of Michael Bourn, but he’s never had one season as good as Heyward’s 5.1 that he did at age 20. I’ll imagine Heyward leads position players in WAR next season.
As much as i like Michael Bourn , the Braves should package him into a blockbuster deal and move on with players who will be with the Braves for years to come. The fact that Bourn is represented by Boras makes Michael a one year player in Atlanta. The Braves don’t deal with the scum bag Boras and rightfully so.
I do not find your projections to be unreasonable at all. My expectation is that these players, and a few others, will significantly outperform their 2011 season. It is this reason why I feel we do not need to make a major move this offseason.
Had a trade flashbulb I wanted to run by you (Ben) and the rest of y’all, too: St. Louis reportedly wants to sign Carlos Beltran. If they do, they need somebody in the rotation and a second baseman better than Skip Schumaker. Jair and Skip over to St. Louis for Allen Craig and…..I’m not really sure who else, but I’m not familiar with the organization. That looks like left field to me. Anyone think this is on the map?
@6,
Allen Craig is hurt and will probably not be ready to start the season. Thus, Berkman to first and sign Beltran.
I can’t judge Craig on a long term prospect basis.
@3,
while you may not care for his “hired gun” approach with his clients – who basically hire him specifically for that – and some of his claims/projections stretch one’s imagination, i’m not sure what specific instances you can point to where boras has acted like a “scum bag.”
@3 /Mark B
Lowe
Hanson
Jurrjens
Bourn
Maddux
All Boras clients. To say we don’t deal with him is absurd. If anything, we seem to have a good working relationship with him. Wren seems to understand at the end of the day that his job is to get the best deal possible for the club and that Boras’ job is to get the best deal possible for his clients. Business is not personal.
Um, the only player on that list the Braves have actually worked with Boras to sign was Lowe, and we all see how well that contract worked out. The Maddux situation caused the trading of Millwood for Estrada, which was also less than ideal.
All the rest required almost zero interaction between Boras and the Braves. It is fair to conclude the Braves do not deal with Boras free agents.
@9,
Actually we had to work with Boras in order to sign Hanson to his first deal when they were drafted. To say the Braves don’t deal with Boras clients is ridiculous. Tex, Bourn, Hanson, Lowe, Mike Gonzalez, Hanson, Maddux, Millwood, Jurrjens, Andruw Jones, there are several. Not many teams have a great relationship with Boras, but they still deal with him because they like his players. It’s tough to sign them because unless you make an outright demand that that is where you want to be (Jered Weaver) then he goes for the largest contract he can get his client. But the Braves have dealt with him in the past and will continue to deal with him in the future unless Boras pulls a Arn Tellem (Furcal’s agent).
@9 /Nick S
The comment was that the Braves don’t deal with “scum bag” Boras. I have no doubt that the Braves will try to extend Hanson (barring severe injuries) and that they would attempt to extend Jurrjens if it wasn’t for the extreme depth that we can draw on to make Jurrjens expendable.
Regardless of resulting circumstances, the Braves front office has dealt with Boras before and Wren, as I stated earlier, seems like the kind of guy that understands business, so long as it’s done on the up and up. The only time Wren has ever said anything negative towards an agent (that I’m aware of) was when the Braves attempted to sign Furcal a few years ago, had a signed offer sheet, and the agent took it to the Dodgers and leveraged money out of them. Furcal and his agent had no intention of coming back to Atlanta and they used Wren.
Any reason freddie freeman wasn’t a candidate on the WAR list?
@10
Hanson switched to Boras in 2009 or 2010. Typically Boras doesn’t represent players who are drafted out of the 22nd round.
@10 /vivabeta
Whenever Hanson ended up with Boras, the Braves will more than likely work on signing him long term in the next few years.
Everyone knows Boras is a hard ass, but to say we should never work with him, as was suggested above, is ridiculous.
Scheurholz didn’t really like dealing with Boras, but I don’t think Wren has as much of a problem with him. I agree to say we should NEVER work with Boras is retarded. Boras clients are expensive, and an organization like the Braves with our strong farm system has the luxury to not overpay for free agents on a regular basis. That’s pretty much it.
Ellis, you left of these two heavy hitting ex-Brave Boras clients: Gorkys Hernandez and Garret Anderson.
@15 /vivabeta
Agree that we don’t need to overpay if we keep a strong farm. Only dealing with Boras when absolutely necessary is a plus.
As for Gorkys, I had no clue Boras was his agent. I almost listed Anderson, though I ultimately left him off for fear of having Sesame Street songs stuck in my head. One of these things is not like the other…
“The team was well on pace to make the playoffs before the monumental collapse, as we all know, so expecting this team as currently built to again contend for a playoff spot is certainly plausible.”
That said, they finished 8th of 16 national league teams in WAR-perhaps as a result of not having one player top 4. You might view that September as an incredibly harsh correction rather than a freak occurrence. And the Braves have done nothing to add offense to a team that ranked 23rd in wOBA. I’m really worried about 2012.
Anticipating better seasons from center, right, second, and even catcher should help move their wOBA ranking into the top half of teams.
I do not see the pitching being worse either, except for maybe the back end of the bullpen gets a bit less fortunate. Injuries could alter things of course, and they will occur. The extent to how much the injuries hurt the overall performance is the big unknown.
@18 /Ben
No reason not to expect a much better season from LF also. Prado is a much better player than we saw last year.