Reviewing the Braves’ ZiPS Projections
December 23, 2011 at 10:57 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Dan Szymborski of ESPN and Baseball Think Factory released the Braves’ ZiPS projections for 2012. The projections can be found here, and I recommend them to all. They are just projections, and should not be taken as fact, as a number of factors can greatly alter the actual performance of any individual player throughout the course of a season. ZiPS is certainly a good base for what to expect though.
The four offensive Major Leaguer projections that interested me most were Michael Bourn’s, Jason Heyward’s, Freddie Freeman’s, and Tylor Pastornicky’s. Younger players like the latter three are always difficult to project due to a small sample size against the world’s top talent, but to me that is what makes reading these projections so interesting.
Bourn: .270/.331/.354, 28 2B, 9 3B, 2 HR, 57 SB, 13 CS, 86 OPS+
The OPS+ looks a bit low, compared to the 97 mark he has put together over the past three seasons. The two best years in that span, and in fact the two best of his career, were helped by BABIP’s in the .360′s. Expecting that to drop does make sense, but I would also imagine his OBP is in the lower .340′s rather than the low .330′s.
wRC+ is a better metric for Bourn than OPS+ due to the fact that it includes steals. His career OPS+ is 88 while his career wRC+ is 97. I think we should project Bourn at more of a 93 OPS+ with his wRC+ hovering around 100, so I think ZiPS is underestimating Bourn at least a tad.
Heyward: .255/.360/.427, 25 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 12 SB, 4 CS, 113 OPS+
Heyward’s stat line is close to what I projected here, but with less power. I had Heyward at .265/.365/.455 line, which is somewhat close. This seems pretty attainable to me and should be what he would get if he had an average year, in my opinion.
The 113 OPS+ would be significantly lower than his rookie season’s 131 mark, but it would still very solid. With his defense and base running skills, this line should make Heyward a four win player.
Freeman: .279/.344/.455, 32 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 115 OPS+
ZiPS puts Freeman as the second most productive offensive player. The line itself is hardly different from last year’s, which is to be expected since he only really has the one season of Major League experience under his belt and it was relatively in line with what he did throughout the minors, when you alter the minor league lines to Major League equivalents.
Freeman will probably never be a top tier first baseman due to how competitive the position is. I could see his power bumping up a bit more than ZiPS projects, but this projection seems pretty accurate to me.
Pastornicky: .261/.311/.363, 21 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 28 SB, 12 CS, 82 OPS+
The line itself looks accurate. He will probably be close to average offensively compared to other shortstops, if not a bit below average. If he is able to play average defense at shortstop while being efficient on the base paths, this will be a position that is at least somewhat upgraded over last year.
He does not have any one tool like Alex Gonzalez had that makes him productive, but he should be pretty solid at most aspects. Eyes will be focused on Tyler in spring and in the early parts of the season, so coming out of the gate strong will be vital for his prospects of winning over the uncertain.
—————————————————————–
As a side note to the latter three projections, Dan also tweeted ZiPS peak projections:
“FWIW, ZiPS peak abilities – Pastornicky 273/334/427, Heyward 257/390/475, Freeman 283/362/500
I think Heyward’s average could be higher, which would also improve his slugging, but the OBP and ISO look close to right. If he is able to put up a .390 OBP with an ISO of .218 then he will probably be a seven win player, which could put him in MVP contention.
That line from Pastornicky could put him in the rookie of the year hunt, and Freeman would be as solid at first as the Braves have had in a decade with that type of performance.
Of course, those are peak projections and are not to be expected, but they are attainable with a few breaks and improved performance. One of them could reach those numbers, which would be a huge improvement over what the Braves got out of any of those positions last year, even more so at short or in right.
—————————————————————–
There was not much to note on the pitching end, though the similarities between Jair Jurrjens and Julio Teheran certainly caught my eye.
Jurrjens: 156 IP, 3.81 ERA, 11-8, 15 HR, 105 K, 51 BB, 103 ERA+
Teheran: 152 IP, 3.85 ERA, 11-9, 13 HR, 121 K, 58 BB, 102 ERA+
Teheran will likely replace Jurrjens once he is traded, and the innings total for Teheran is close to ideal to me. He should probably make five to ten minor league starts before coming back to the majors, which should leave him about 15o or so innings left depending on how many starts he actually does make in Gwinnett.
The fact that ZiPS calls them equals now only gives me more confidence in trading Jair. The Braves will not lose much of anything in terms of production, only in depth, while likely netting a solid return and shaving off a few million from the payroll as well. Hopefully a few more can get on board after seeing what ZiPS expects of the highly touted prospect and the veteran who is expected to regress.
Loading ...
Here we go again. Expecting Heyward to do well.Wont happen,Send him to the minors until he gets rid of the attitude,
Honey Bee,
What, pray tell, special insight or source gives you any idea about Jason’s “attitude”? Other than the color of his skin, which seems to be the common theme with you people who claim he has an “attitude problem” or “doesnt love baseball”. Why don’t you refrain from commenting unless you have something intelligent to say?
If Teheran does well in Spring Training, I hope he breaks with the team.
I didn’t know nagging injuries constituted an ‘attitude’.
Honey Bee, what “attitude” are you talking about? The one where he admitted that he would have benched himself with how poorly he played? The one where he was the first to congratulate Constanza after every good play? The one where he spent extra hours in the batting cage with Chipper and Larry Parrish? The one where his teammates said he is the most mature young player they have ever seen? Do you know that he is already working out regularly with Greg Walker, the new hitting coach???
Enough of this “Heyward has a bad attitude” nonsense. He had a horrible sophomore season. End of story.
It seems to me that the numbers for Heyward are a little low, particularly the peak projections. It would seem that if things go right his BA and SLG would be a little higher than that. I could see a .270/.390/.500 season for him next year if all goes right. However, I would be very happy with a .260/.370/.450 season.
Ben what are your thoughts on how much of a difference parrish’s departure will make on the team’s offensive stats? And not just parrish’s departure, but the arrival of a new hitting coach and, presumably, a new philosophy.
I tend to think some fans have unrealistic expectations as to how much impact a coach can have within one season. However, based on the comments coming out of the Braves front office concerning parrish’s total inability to communicate, I think its possible he was so bad that we might notice quick improvement now that a new regime is in place.
All I want for Christmas is for a) Honey Bee to be banned or b) just close the comments section. This is such a valuable and credible source for Braves insight but it only takes one mouth breather to tarnish that.
Heyward has all the talent in the world, but he acts like he is better then everyone else which he is. But he needs to prove it. I know because I have met him.
@8 /DuPu
I’ll take A please. Now that the comments have been reinstated, I’ve had a lot of fun joining in the discussion. I don’t want to consider the idea that one troll would ruin that.
@9 /Honey Bee
Please stop posting. It is painfully clear that you know nothing about baseball, baseball players, or human nature. Post #5 is full of good points and you fail to acknowledge any of it.
wow honeybee did u do him also
Yes, Ellis post 5 has very points as far as baseball is concerned. Like I said he has very good talent but it is all in his head. He knows he is good and so do I.He doesnt show it on the field. Quit judging people until you know them.
@11 /Honey Bee
Offseason work, spending extra time on days off working, comments to the press, comments from his teammates… those are not the things normally attributed to a person with a bad attitude or mental and emotional maturity issues.
You are the ONLY person I’ve ever seen that expressed the feeling that he has a bad attitude. Forgive me if I believe the people who work with him every day vs. a random message board poster.
I don’t quite get the peak value for Heyward. Certainly an OPS of 865 is far below what Heyward could post this year. I don’t think anyone would even blink if Heyward threw up a 900+ OPS next year. In fact, I think a lot of people pretty much expect it.
WELL Ellis I guess you can believe whatever you want. That is your priviledge. Jason is one fine individual.I have met him and like him very much as a person,but until he decides to come off his cocky attitude as far as baseball is concerned he will not produce. This is all i am going to say about the matter.
@14 /Honey Bee
Please let it be all you are going to say about every matter. TIA
@Honey Bee
Please say no more on the subject. So Jason will fail due to cockiness? Really? I hate to break it to you, but there are a lot more factors in a player’s success than “cocky attitudes.” #5 made several of the points that needed to be made on the topic, but you should read up about some of the “cocky” players of the past. Believe it or not, some of those guys managed to produce despite their attitudes.
“The one where he spent extra hours in the batting cage with Chipper and Larry Parrish?”
He worked really hard with the hitting coach last year. But I’m not sure what Larry Parrish was doing there.
@17 /Chris
At the risk of channeling my inner Strother Martin, Parrish was clearly failing to communicate.
How do people come up with bad attitude? Cocky like chipper, justice, maddux, glavine, smoltz, sheffield, tex? Don’t know if you noticed, but most of the best players in the last two decades of this franchise have been cocky SOBs
Ben
Does BTF archive zips from previous seasons? Would be interesting to compare last year’s projections to the actual results.
Do you have power of executioner? There is a handful of morons who are souring the discourse.
@everyone else
Don’t feed the trolls.
5. He hasn’t actually started working with Walker yet.
@19 /vivabeta
Change 2012 in Ben’s link to 2011 and you should get them.
@bumblebee
Your an idiot.
Moving on from J-Hey.
I’ll bet a la Romney $10,000 that JJ will have more than twice the wins with the Braves or someone else than Terahan will have with the Braves or Gwinnett. WS for 2012 for Braves! Happy New Year esoterics!
HAPPY Holidays, Guys. Going to California. SEE you IN January.
You must be going to hang out with Kobe
Dont think so. Dont like him. Also brave boyfriend might object.
Thanks, Ellis.
HB, If Santa Durino grants my Xmas wish, we will not all be so unlucky come January.
The Braves could have easily won 95 games last year if they would have just hit average compared to their career numbers. We haven’t really lost any good players this off-season, in fact we got rid of a lot of our crap pitchers and hitters(a-gon, sherril, linebrink, lowe). I think if the Braves just hit for their career averages, with the team we have now with the addition of a back-up SS, they can easily compile 93 wins. Now if they were to hit a little above average than we are a 96 win team. Regardless of what happens this off-season, it is going to be really fun watching Pastorniky, Teheren, Delgado, minor and Vizcaino perform next year. Also, i cant wait to see chipper prove his critics wrong and Heyward storm back to have an all-star season. oh yeah than there’s Mccann, Bourn, freeman, Prado, and Uggla !! I think we have a damn good team considering our $90 mil. payroll.
Career averages from Chipper, Freeman, and Uggla is quite a tall order.
OK, I’m going to sound like an idiot here, but it’s driving me nuts. In the quintile rankings, EX is obviously “Excellent”, VG is “Very Good”, and AV is “Average”. I assume PO is “Poor”. But that the bleep does FR stand for?
Oh and I agree that the peak projections for Heyward seem a tad low, but then, clearly, I’m no expert here.
I have met Jason, we played against eachother in summer ball a few times and he is a delightful individual. He’s humble insightful and talented, he is confidant but if you don’t want your potential star player to be confidant you need your head checked.
Think the average on his projection is a bit low, also think Pastornicky could surpass that Obp projection.
I think a deal will happen before the opener. I keep hearing Baltimore, KC, and the Rockies a lot. Am I missing a team we have been paired with a lot in rumors?
First, it’s a travesty that the main topic of discussion, rather than focusing on all the information jammed into the Zips article, is the fucking troll who posted the first comment. Who cares what some guy, who clearly only has a vague grasp of the English language, thinks about Heyward? Seriously, he wins when you respond, thats the fucking point. Ignore him
Anyway, as a general question, does anyone think a Braves regular will finish the season with a slugging percentage >.500? It seems unlikely, as it’s been a good few years since any Brave has done it (Chipper last did it in ’08), but there are a couple different players who have the potential. Any of McCann, Uggla, Heyward, or Freeman could have a stand out year. Plus, Chipper had the highest slugging % on the 2011 Braves (.470), so you can’t necessarily count him out yet.
Which leads me nicely into asking what thoughts are on Mark Trumbo as the Braves left-fielder? He should be available, and would certainly add a right handed power bat to the Braves that is both young and cheap. The OBP is troubling, and the K:BB ratio is downright disturbing, but he does at least seem to hit the ball hard…
@35 /danthecone
Outside of the HR power, Trumbo’s plate discipline is eerily similar to that of Alex Gonzalez. To replace Prado’s production with those numbers is a step backwards.
Totally agree on the Zips projections and the team analysis from the top to the bottom.
Thanks Ben. Really nice present.
I know Adam Jones has plate discipline and OBP issues, but he still seems like the best fit to me. And holding on to Prado is making a bit more sense. I may have an unfounded bias toward Jones versus Prado as a LFer. He visually fits the picture–taller, more graceful in the outfield, more power–but if Prado’s 2011 was an aberration, then he (Prado) remains very valuable. Ideally, we have them both, and Prado rebounds to 120-125 OPS+, and Jones progresses (like clockwork) to a 120 OPS+. The beauty of that situation is that Jones can handle CF well, and we would then have tons of flexibility in dealing with Bourn in 2013. If both played at those levels, we would find a position for Prado.
If only one excels, they play LF, and Frank Wren takes credit for either trading for Jones or for keeping Prado. The chances of both tanking is slim, especially considering Jones’ steady numbers.
Unfortunately, I just don’t see a package built around JJ that gets us Jones.
Overall, the ZiPs projections make me think we either need one current player to really “break the curve” in a big way, or we need to obtain another bat. I have not seen Jones’ projection for 2012, but if he just progresses at his average pace from the last two years (I dismiss 3 years ago, as it would give an unfairly optimistic picture), he would be at 118.5 OPS+, which puts him at the very top of our team projections. At his age, and based on his record, this sort of steady improvement is not out of the question.
@32/Greenstar
Since it lists Brooks Conrad and Dan Uggla at 2B as “FR”, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say it means “fucking retarded”.
FR=Fair
Uggla and Conrad right on the very edge of landing in the poor group. Uggla’s probably there in another year.
I think the Angels could be a good trade partner…Maybe we can pry Mike trout or P Bourjos from LA for JJ….also I’d look at Blue Jays and maybe Colby Rasmus for JJ…or I’d call up Boston and see what their offering….That’s 3 realistic possible trade partners….
The only players I would even listen to offers for and potentially include in a trade package are Jair Jurrjens, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Tyler Pastornicky and Matt Diaz. I would keep Martin Prado, unless the offer is too good to refuse. I would be okay with trading only 1 of any of those 3 pitchers, maybe even 2 for the right price, and including Pastornicky in a deal only if the return package nets us a better shortstop. Diaz is expendable. Our wish list is small; Some combination of those pieces plus minor league prospects could easily get us a talented outfielder and an average shortstops. If Frank Wren were smart, I would consider all other MLB-ready players on the team basically off-limits.
Offseason priorities:
1. Trade JJ for young talent.
2. Keep Prado.
3. Find a backup SS w/ average defense.
4. Put Greg Walker to work.
Sounds easy enough, right?
@41 /Lemke
Prying Trout away from the Angels is going to take a lot more than a package centered around JJ. Bourjos is a possibility, but I would like to see him draw more walks.
I like the idea of Colby Rasmus, but I would want another piece back as well in a trade for JJ. Maybe I’m just greedy, though…
I agree with the above poster(s) that say HoneyBee needs to be banned. Either that, or just lock the comment section again. Too frustrating to have to filter the comments from the trolls, the idiots talking to the trolls, (and the ones I really want to read), people talking baseball.
Here we go again. Expecting Heyward to do well.Wont happen,Send him to the minors until he gets rid of the attitude,
TROLOLOLOLOLOL
@42/J dub(step)
Agreed on Prado. The bench is not the strength it used to be for the Braves, I think Prado will have a very productive season even if he isn’t the opening day starter.
I don’t think the Braves should include Minor in any trades, he is still young and cheap and his ceiling is pretty high. Minor might be on the verge of a breakout year.
I also wouldnt be too upset if the Braves traded Oflaherty, his value is probably at an all time high right now, he could fetch some serious prospects/a left fielder. Not that Im anxious to see him traded or anything…
@43/Ellis I think the Blue Jays are in win-now mode, I expect major pieces like Rasmus are off limits this winter.
@45 /danthecone
I wouldn’t be surprised if Rasmus is unavailable, but I don’t know enough about their organization to say for sure.
That being said, I would still like to have him on our team in some capacity. This seems to be the time of year for proving we know more than the GM anyway. :)
Duh…Fair. Too easy. Of course, to me, “Fair” means at least average. I think it ought to be called “Mediocre” or maybe “They pay you WHAT to play like this?”
Honey Bee,
I would love to know why you think Heyward has a cocky attitude and why you think he thinks he’s better than everyone else. I have never seen him display this, and clearly neither has anyone else here. From my perspective, he seems like a kid who has a good head on his shoulders and I’ve been impressed with every interview he’s ever given. Do you have evidence to back your points up?
@49 /Austin
From what I’ve seen, Honey Bee claims to be the girlfriend of a current Braves payer, presumably someone on the 25 man roster.