Arodys Vizcaino’s Future
February 9, 2012 at 2:58 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Prospects
Earlier today, Keith Law’s rank of the top-100 prospectsand top-10 prospects per team were released. He ranked Arodys Vizcaino first, which is the first time this has been done by any major publication this year. In fact, in the aggregate ranking I compiled earlier this week, Teheran was ranked first by every writer.
Here is a comment Law had about Vizcaino:
He will pitch at 92-96 mph as a starter and touched 98 in relief for the big club, with some late life up in the zone. His main secondary pitch is a very hard curveball, breaking down hard at slider velocity with two-plane action and depth. He has good arm speed on his changeup and was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year, even though he comes from just under three-quarters and gives those batters a longer look at the ball. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but doesn’t get great extension out front.
The fastball and curveball are deadly, which is why it is so easy to project Vizcaino as a late-inning reliever. His fastball velocity was the fifteenth fastest on average last year, which speaks to how hard the young Dominican can throw. The curveball is certainly a plus pitch as well. While the vertical movement is not tremendous for a curveball, he throws it at a high velocity and has solid command over it. Although the velocity is high on the curveball, it is not exactly slider velocity as Law states. Sliders are typically around 7 mph slower than a fastball while curveballs are usually close to 12 mph behind. Vizcaino’s curveball is about an 82 mph pitch, which is about 13 mph off his fastball velocity.
Where I get confused a bit in Law’s report is the changeup. Jonathan Mayo did not mention the pitch in his report, Goldstein called it a below average pitch before last season, Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally said it had potential in 2010 but noted flaws in it, and Newman has also talked to a scout that called him a “sure fire bullpen arm.” It is doubtful that scouts would not be calling Vizcaino a bullpen arm if his third pitch was as good as Law suggests.
I had not read anywhere last year that his changeup developed to where it was “much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year.” Law obviously meant left-handed batters, but I am uncertain of the accuracy of the rest of the statement as well.
How many times did he see Vizcaino pitch last year? If he saw that the changeup develop in the small amount of appearances he saw, why would he not simply say how or why he thought the pitch improved?
This was not an in depth scouting report, and maybe we can contact Keith and see if he can expand upon his reasoning. Still, I am unsure of how much the pitch has developed. Of the 317 pitches he threw for the Braves last year, just seven were changeups. That is taken from a small sample size, and as a reliever with his two-pitch arsenal he does not need to throw the third pitch frequently. However, if the pitch had developed as Law stated, it probably would have been thrown more frequently than on 2% of his pitches.
While I am unsure if the pitch actually has developed, I do understand that there is certainly room for it to reach a quality level. If the Braves do need Vizcaino to start in 2013 or later, moving him from the bullpen to the rotation is an option. The big key will end up being the changeup, and it will be hard for him to develop it if he is not throwing it more than one or two times per 100 pitches. My expectation is that either the changeup becomes a more common pitch in his arsenal this year, or he ends up being a reliever long term.
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I prefer him in the pen myself given the repertoire and the past durability issues.
Law said on yesterday’s Baseball Today podcast that he thinks Vizcaino should be turned into a starter.
I was listening to Keith’s podcast today, and he said something interesting about Randall Delgado.
Randall, ranked in the somewhere in the 90′s, projects as a reliever over the long-haul in Keith’s opinion. I hadn’t heard that before. After reading Ben’s article, it is apparent I shouldn’t take everything that Keith says as gospel truth. Any thoughts on Delgado’s converting to a reliever in the long term?
Klaw caught some flack back in July when he ranked Vizcaino (#11) over Teheran (#12). He’s always been high on Arodys.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6768361/mlb-keith-law-updated-2011-top-50-prospects
I like Delgado as a starter long-term. Can he end up in the bullpen? Sure. His numbers at double-A weren’t astonishing, so anything can happen in the future.
His ability to control lefties with his changeup is where he’s got the edge over Vizcaino, in my opinion. While his breaking ball is not nearly as good, a fastball-changeup combo with a decent breaking ball is a lot more common as a starter than Vizzy’s offerings.
Ben,
What did you think of how low the Braves were ranked. I expected to see Julio in the top 10, at worst.
Guys, KLaw really haven’t said too many good things about the Braves since 2009 especially with our draft. Aroodys over Julio? That is a massive call and not sure what he could base that on given JT’s dominance in AAA and their similar age.
The Delgado ranking and Andrelton Simmons not being ranked at all seems a bit tough.
I do think he has the top 3 (Trout, Harper & Moore) pretty much right.
There’s no anti-Brave conspiracy or anything. I can see why someone would rank Teheran where he did, and if he truly sees something in Vizcaino’s changeup that makes him think he would be a top tier starter then that is his opinion.
@6
His ranking makes sense when you see how he ranked them in the top-100. He’s down on Teheran and Delgado compared to the rest. With only two guys in the top-90, and not much after the initial seven or so prospects, you can understand why he had them at 16.
I would put them more at 12, personally. I think that’s about fair, but it is going to be real ugly next year when those top guys and Pastornicky graduate.
This may have been addressed before, but how does the new CBA affect the Braves’ drafts? As a team that would not sign players over-slot, it seems this would level the playing field, at least for the Braves.
From Jonah Keri’s article on Grantland a few months back:
“The few teams that have traditionally avoided spending over slot in the draft will get an added benefit, with rivals becoming more reluctant to outspend them. The Braves, for instance, have long stuck to MLB’s slot recommendations. They haven’t suffered any major consequences in loss of talent, because more often than not, they simply outscout the rest of baseball. It’s no coincidence that Braves president and former GM John Schuerholz was one of the driving forces in hammering out the new draft arrangement.”
I’m merely focusing on the draft aspect of the new CBA, not the international signings. Feel free to address international signings though.
Anybody have thoughts?
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/10571/mlbs-new-cba-is-no-help-to-small-market-clubs
The obvious answer is that KLaw’s prospect list is simply the worst in the business. This is the same guy who was down on Freeman, and didn’t even rank Kimbrel. They were two of the best rookies last year.
Quite simply, KLaw has no business even authoring a prospect list, and it should not be used in any aggregate list compiled by anyone.
Both me and Franklin have stated it probably helps the Braves due to the fact that these were the practices they were already involved in. They have been drafting like this for a while now, so I don’t think there will be much of a difference at all for them.
@11
I understand not ranking relievers when compiling top-100 lists. I believe that’s Law’s mentality, and that was his reasoning for not listing him last year. I definitely think he is good at what he does. There is no real measuring stick for performance as I have never seen anyone go back and determine the accuracy of prospect lists. I think his is just as good as anyone else’s. Just because it does not match up with industry norms does not make it worse. That’s my opinion on it at least.
Just went back and glanced over the past 4 years of KLaw’s top 100 and gives me great heart to see his projection rate is about the same as other prospects lists. I think we all agreed that these lists are only guide lines and things change. The top 10 prospects all seems to have fared well but once you get past #15 it becomes more of a crap shoot.
The overall Braves farm system ranking of 16 was probably right but you can’t promote the likes of Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, Beachy, Minor without falling a few places.
I’m guessing that Keith has no concerns with Vizcaino’s elbow? Also, Keith tweeted me at the end of last year not being impressed with Bethancourt and then tweeted again when I asked at the Arizona Fall League that he had a terrible batting practice. I’m guessing a small sample size for that.
I don’t read “was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year” to be referring to his changeup. I read it as “he has good arm speed on his changeup” and “he was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year.”
I think if he meant for the changeup to refer to the second part of the sentence, it would have read “…on his changeup, which was much more effective…”
@11,
I’m not sure why you think Law was “down” on Freeman. If you go back to last year, he had him as #43 and mentioned he was ML ready, though lacking a “standout skill.” And the whole point of his prospect list is to rank according to future success, not just whether they will have good rookie years. I don’t think you have much of a case to say his list is worthless.