On Chipper’s Days Off
February 10, 2012 at 2:53 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a few options for the days that Chipper will inevitably need off this season. At his age, keeping him healthy with regular rest is necessary, and the chance that he is put on the disabled list at some point is obviously much higher than it is for the average player. The Braves have had to have contingency plans for Chipper for the past number of years, and they will have one in place this year as well. Let’s examine their options.
Platoon in Left
Moving in Martin Prado is the instinctual choice, as his best defensive position is probably third base. Prado would move into third, instantly making the infield defense substantially better. With Prado in the infield, the Braves could opt to go with a platoon of Eric Hinske and Matt Diaz in left field.
The platoon between the two has the potential to be decent offensively, with Hinske maintaining a career 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and Diaz with a 129 career wRC+ against left-handers. Both struggled last year, but in spurts they have the ability to be decent offensively against pitchers of opposite handedness.
One problem with this would be the defense. The upgrade defensively the Braves get at third may be at least slightly mitigated by the defense they lose in left by losing Prado and subbing in their heavier bench outfielders. Diaz has decent career marks defensively in left, but his four year totals are a bit worse (-4 DRS, -4 UZR in 1,142 innings — less than a player would receive with 150 nine inning games). Hinske has been close to league average for his carer in left and right field, but playing at age 34 for most of the season probably will not help Hinske get to many balls in the outfield.
This is one of the better solutions, as the Braves offense would be hurt the least in this format.
Play Jack Wilson
Wilson has only appeared in 21 innings at third base in his Major League career, all of which came last year. However, the fact that he has been as good as he has been at shortstop for the length of his career gives confidence in him being an above average defender at the position. Wilson’s range is his strong suit and his arm will be tested more at third than in the middle infield positions, but he is a defense first player who will should perform well when asked to play the hot corner.
His bat will obviously be the big negative. Wilson’s wRC+ has declined from 98-73-71-61-55 over the past five years, leading one to assume that the bat is probably gone forever. Anything he does offensively would be a plus, and the only time that it would make sense to start Wilson at third in Chipper’s absence is when a ground ball pitcher like Tim Hudson is starting.
Go With Conztanza
It appears as though Jose Constanza will be the primary backup centerfielder. Jose hit well enough last year, with a wRC+ of 101 in 42 games, to have a good case to make the roster. While he takes odd reads in the outfield and has questionable routes, his speed allows him to be a pretty solid defender, especially in the corners. The Braves would again move Prado to third base in this scenario, which would improve the infield defense and likely keep the outfield defense at a similar level.
This sounds similar to the Jack Wilson scenario, but Conztanza is the better offensive player. While Conztanza’z offense is better, it is likely a far cry from what a platoon of Diaz and Hinske would provide in tandem. The option to platoon Conztanza and Diaz is there as well, though Conztanza actually hit better against southpaws in his tiny sample last season. He may end up having standard platoon splits, but we do not know that for certain just yet.
Optimal Decision
I think the optimal decision depends on who is starting. With Hudson on the mound, moving Prado in and using the platoon of Diaz and Hinske in left is probably the best option. Since the rest of the starters are not ground ball pitchers, Conztanza is probably the best choice to maintain solid value in Chipper’s absences. There are arguments for all of the options, and a lot also rides on how well Wilson performs at third defensively. If he plays the position better than Prado, giving him some starts against left-handers might not be the worst thing in the world.
I expect Fredi to use a combination of the options, applying his faithful “hot hand” theory to make the decisions in part. Whatever the decision, it will obviously be a significant downgrade from what Chipper can do for the team. If he can play upwards of 130 games this year, the daily decisions on who to start in his place would have less meaning and less impact, which is certainly a good thing.
Loading ...
“I expect Fredi to use a combination of the options, applying his faithful “hot hand” theory to make the decisions in part. ”
. . . I see what you did there.
i just think its time for chipper to move on, hes hurt to much and hes past his prime. the braves are getting younger and better but chipper keeps hanging around.
he was a great player but not any more i dont understand the brave try to upgrade at every postion but 3rd base where he is not good on defence any more
The only offensive player who was better than Chipper last year was McCann.
dan uggla strugled bad the first half but was a big reason that the braves was as close as they were chipper didnt do as good the second half of the season which counts the most
Ok, but actually it counts the same. If Chipper puts the team on his back and wins them a game on April 4, it counts exactly as much as if he does that on September 29. There’s no extra credit in baseball.
And hey, what the hell, so long as we’re working the ol’ bag here: you’re also wrong. Chipper was better after the All Star Break than before, his best month was August, and his worst months were May and June.
I know it’s tempting, when you make an assertion and someone points out that you’re wrong, to just dig more, offer some dumb interpretation of the facts upon which your point is not as bad as it first appears. But if you don’t check whether that interpretation is right, you just open yourself to a never-ending spiral of wrongness.
Chipper is going to play till he feels he can’t play at this level anymore. And right now, he is still playing at a very good professional level. Is he as elite as he used to be? But he is still a very intelligent player, who plays solid defense, and contributes significantly at the plate.
I’d imagine that on Chipper’s day off, he’d have a day a la Ferris Buehler.
I can’t tell if it’s the 4 beers and being extremely tired, but this was one of the more entertaining articles I’ve read on CAC. I loved the serious, excellent analysis followed by the conclusion–equally serious and excellent–that Fredi would go with his “faithful ‘hot hand’ strategy.” Definitely good for a chuckle.
ok but why dont you check the numbers and see that chiper wasnt the same down the strech and also i get tired of watching the game when chiper makes a mistake or mises the ball the anouncers says it was someone elses fault and wasnt an error but its different for someone else.
Darius you are an idiot. Name another third baseman who had a better season offensively than chipper other than the beast of beltre? Chipper compared to the old chip is obviously worse, but he is still a top 53rd bagger in the NL when healthy. Also , if you focus on the error as a defensive metric then you have missed the point. Quit trolling and do some research.
Aramis Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Evan Longoria
thats not what i was saying that somtimes the ball would go past chiper or bounce of chipper and the anouncers would say the ball belong to the ss and i wasnt talking about errors i no that chipper didnt have many errors
Darius:
Chipper put up an .803 OPS in September while playing every game but one. That’s much better than /mac and Freeman, and the the exact same number as Uggla. Chipper even contributed 4 HRs during the month. His bat was fine down the stretch. It was everyone around him who faded.
yes and i was refering to the earlyer comment about a better offensive season, and we all know that they faded
im done i guess you can never win you talk to chipper lovers but i will all end when his contract is up at the end of the season. i dont think he will be back.
@ darius: The folks that frequent this blog do not “love” Chipper because he’s Chipper. They/we/I love Chipper because he’s an elete offensive third baseman. Any argument to the contrary is simply not supported by the facts. An .803 OPS is not what he used to put up, but most major league teams would welcome (with open arms) a third baseman capable of putting up that number. The Braves are lucky to have Chipper, and there’s no doubt in my mind that two years from now people will be complaining that 3b has become an offensive black hole for the Braves.
@ Darius:
You said Chipper wasn’t the same down the stretch and that is just 100% not true.
You said Uggla put them team on his back in the second half, yet his numbers were very similar to Chipper’s.
Chipper in August: .359/.391/.641/1.032
Chipper in September: .269/.330/.473/.803
Uggla in August: .340/.405/.670/1.076
Uggla in September: .238/.347/.455/.803
I’d think that it is somewhat like saying that Constanza was better than Heyward and should always start over him. trollololol?
It is rather funny that Darius there was saying that everyone should check the numbers when he didn’t even bring any numbers to the argument himself. When people bring numbers to the argument they are called Chipper lovers.
I mean, I’ll admit it. I am and started being a Braves fan because of Chipper back in 94/95. But there is not one moment where I thought that he should retire or not be a Brave simply because he was going through a rough stretch these last few years. If he goes through this year and has a simply average year, I’d still want him to go through that option year in 2013 because one more year of Chipper makes the Braves better in the long haul.
The problem with people like Darius is that we rehash the same arguments over and over again with idiots that think the AJC blog is gospel.
While what I would like to see is the numbers behind the “optimal” offense, where we sub out Chipper and McCann and still keep a winning team on the field.
im with darius its time for chipper to go cant wait to see heyward and prado bounce back.
I don’t think there is any real reason to get worried about Chipper’s bat.
But I am worried about his knees. 130 games seems to be wildly optimistic to me. I think at least one trip to the DL and about 110 games is far more realist.
Please just look at the several post from Darius – his use of no punctuation or use of caps shows that he is a grade school graduate who has access to his mothers computer.
I miss Peter. He would’ve put the ban hammer down on darius after his first comment. No offense, Ben.
Darius – Are you retarded?
Man, it never ceases to amaze me how many hysterical rants pop up just by mentioning Chipper Jones’ name. It’s all pretty silly if you ask me. If your team has third-baseman putting up top-10 numbers year after year and you jump out of the gate screaming hysterically that he has to go, you just end up looking foolish.
The fact is, we’ve got a team that is set up really well to handle his days off. If he misses an extended amount of time, Prado is capable of putting up respectable numbers. The chances are very good we will not see another hitter of Chipper’s caliber in our lifetime. To be able to watch him wrap up his career with the only team he’s ever known is amazing, but to also be able to have a team that can handle his days off, is just gravy on top. Couldn’t be happier. Great article.
Sorry to get this thread back on topic, but my thoughts are that when Chipper goes down we will see the Hinske/Diaz platoon in LF. In the late innings Fredi will stick Constanza in LF as a defensive replacement.
The only way I see Wilson starting at 3B will be if Chipper is out, the Braves are facing a LH starter, and Diaz still hasn’t hit after his first 100 ABs.
Constanza should not be starting unless Bourn needs a day, or a LOT of OFers are injured or ineffective. So let’s just hope we don’t see him penciled in the lineup more than 10-15 times this year.
As far as I’m concerned, the jury is still out on Constanza’s level of performance. As far as I’ve been able to research, he has a long history of being highly successful at the speed game (slapped grounders for hits, trouble on the base paths, “good” fielding) when healthy. The problem is that the ankle injury he suffered last year is one that has limited his production throughout his entire minor league career.
Indications seem to be that he is a very similar player to Michael Bourn when healthy. Both very fast and with equally atrocious outfield skills which are masked by their speed.
Ben, Kevin, Franklin. Seriously. Can you guys fucking start using the banning stick on these morons? It really sucks to wade through the conversation when half of it is “CHOPPER IZ OLD NOW HE CANT PLAY IS 2 OLD LETS TRADE 4 BRICE HERPER 2 PLAY THARD.” And it only gets worse when the season starts. They multiply like gremlins.