Tim Hudson and Infield Defense
February 14, 2012 at 5:17 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Defense
I wrote an article for RotoGraphs involving Tim Hudson and how the Braves’ infield defense will hurt his overall value. We do not do much fantasy stuff over here, but I am pretty big on it and always like to discuss leagues, drafts, and player values.
Here is a snippet from the article.
The problem with the Braves defense, and what is likely to be an even bigger problem this season, was the infield. Freeman likely is not the plus defender many expected, but he probably also is not as bad as the one year UZR sample suggests. He is closer to average defensively, which is fine. Gonzalez was a top notch defender the whole season, which was the lone reason for the Braves sticking with him at shortstop for the entirety of the year was in his high quality glove.
Losing Gonzalez will be a big loss to the team’s defense, and it will especially hurt a pitcher like Tim Hudson. Hudson has relied on ground balls as much as any starter in the league since entering the Majors, so losing a quality defender at the infield’s most important position will certainly sting. Gonzalez’s replacement, Tyler Pastornicky, is expected to be about an average defender. Mike Newman shared those thoughts as well in a brief scouting report of Pastornicky.
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I have always been of the opinion that 1b and C are the two positions of which UZR is not the BEST judge of defensive ability. True Freeman was not good on UZR, yet he was near the top in both Out Of Zone and in Scoops. IMO, these two stats show that he was a plus defender at 1b. Let me explain why:
The two most common plays at 1b are receiving throws and OOZ fly balls in foul territory. In these two areas, Freeman was excellent. (top 5 in both categories). The less common plays on ground balls hit to his right , he may not have been as good, yet these occur much less often than saving bad throws i the dirt (top 2or 3 in SCOOPS).
I just feel that as a big slow guy, he is never going to have much range to his right, yet his supreme glove work and ability to track foul balls in foul ground make up for this in spades…. opinions?
2 – Scoops have nothing to do with range, and Ben’s assertion is that the combined lack of range between Uggla and Freeman will leave a lot of balls to get through the hole. While it’s nice that Freeman has good hands, it won’t really help prevent balls from getting through right side of the Braves infield next season.
@2, possibly not, but in theory, a player who was superior in scoops would yield fewer baserunners due to throwing errors.
Whether the difference is measurable, or worthwhile, I do not know. I also am not sure of the validity of the data NickB quoted in #1.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops/
great article ben, maybe in ten more years people will realize that great hands doesn’t equal great defense. i think it is slightly underrated, but freeman is a bat first first basemen (finally we have one). it is worrisome for hudson’s prospects that the right sight of our infield in particular, and the infield in general will have, overall, average (if we’re lucky) range, but i think for the good of the team, we’ll be okay seeing as how the rest of our pitchers (now and in the future) tend to strikeout more batters than hudson. teheran, delgado, hanson, minor, beachy are guys much less dependent on the infield defense.
Why, thank you, Ben! That answers my questions on the subject.
I disagree with some of their data gathering in that article. (it’s also why I think there are tons of problems with defensive stats is the circumstances are remarkably different in every throw). Unless every throw to first is ranked on a scale of difficulty receiving, it would tend to diminish the importance of fielding bad throws. (and ,so thusly it did in their article). I’m just not sold on range as the primary trait required of first basemen. Where did the Braves rank in baserunners allowed last year? How many of those were due to ground balls between 1st and 2nd? How many of these ground balls would’ve been fielded by different players? How man of these allowed ground balls were the result of positioning by the bench coach?
Like I said above, all of this data is required or defensive stats start to become more voodoo than hard facts…. I think UZR works ok for middle infielders to an extent and for OF’ers to an extent. But ,IMO, it’s nowhere near being as solid a number of judgement as OPS+, RC+ or FIP….
I am certainly not suggesting that any of the defensive numbers are more than just sketches in comparison to the actual paintings wOBA and wRC+.
They need a lot of work, and they will get there eventually, but stats were not the only factor included when evaluating Freeman’s D. Range is important at every position, and the skill of picking a ball is something most first basemen have, with the variation between the best and worst not being very large.
I think we’re all thankful the rotation has shifted from a leader in ground ball rates to a very fly ball dependent one. Beachy, Hanson, and Minor are all fly ball pitchers and we have an excellent defensive outfield.
Has a manager ever platooned a short-stop like letting the good defensive short stop (i.e. Jack Wilson) play days when Hudson’s pitching and letting better offensive short stop (i.e. Pastornicky) play on days when a fly-ball pitcher is pitching?
George, I believe that the difference in bat is usually bigger than the difference in glove. Not to say someone hasn’t tried it, but it doesn’t seem to make much sense.
I think that the games started by Tim should be the days that Chipper rests. If Pastornicky is rested then that would be 2 regulars on the bench. Replacing Chipper and Pastornicky with Hinske/Diaz and Wilson. Is that a good strategy, or should only one of Chipper/Pastornicky sit?
@9. Remember the Belliard/Blauser split Bobby used in the early 90s?
This may have been addressed, but will Peter ever return?
No. Gave up baseball after Stephen Marek was let go.
@ Michael P. I believe one of the site runners said Peter was in med school and was unable to currently contribute due to the time demands associated with that endeavor.
Where does LaRoche usually rank as a defensive 1b?
Was reading the article you wrote on Chippers day off and was wondering bout Drew Sutton is there a chance he can platoon in L.F. I saw him with the Red Sox and he was the Omar Infante of the team so why not use him in that aspect and use him as needed like in the OF/Inf guy. I was also wondering bout Gartrell and Durango which of these two will make the club out of Spring Training?