Fifth Starter Out Of Camp
February 20, 2012 at 5:34 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
With the “news” that Tim Hudson will likely be out until May, the Braves will have to find a fifth starter to fill in during the season’s first month. When in May is up to Hudson and his back, but at this point expecting at least four starts from the last spot in the rotation seems accurate. If something comes up in his back along the line, we could see up to seven or eight starts before Hudson is ready to return. During that time, it is certainly possible that another injury occurs to a starter making the fifth guy a regular in the rotation for most of the season.
The good thing about this situation is that rotation depth is probably the Braves’ biggest strength. They have a number of qualified options for this position, which most teams cannot quite say.
Julio Teheran
The best guess to take the spot out of camp is Teheran. He is the team’s top prospect, and should perform well as a fifth starter even without more minor league seasoning. He did not have much success in his three starts with the A-team last year, sporting just an 11.5% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate (league averages last year were 18.6% and 8.1% respectively), but that came as a 20-year-old and is taken from a small sample. He is certainly better than that, but what does worry me just a tad is his minor league strikeout rate. He only struck out 20.7% of the batters he faced in triple-A, good for a 7.59 strikeout-per-nine innings pitched ratio. While that is above the league average for a Major Leaguer, he was expected to be the type of pitcher that sat close to a strikeout an inning. Teheran is probably ready to fill in for Hudson, but he could still use a bit more work at triple-A as well.
Randall Delgado
The story is not much different for Delgado. He also had poor strikeout and walk rates in his seven Major League starts, but he did not even have a full year of double-A experience before being tossed into the big league rotation. He moved back and forth between Gwinnett and Atlanta after he made his debut, and had his best game in his second start. He allowed just one hit, which was a home run, in a six inning outing against the Giants. He struck out four and walked one, which showed that he had the ability to perform at the level. Delgado did not pitch very effectively the rest of the way, and his four starts in Gwinnett were not too impressive either — pitched to a 4.15 ERA and 4.82 FIP in triple-A. Delgado is somewhat of a long shot to nail down the fifth starter role, but many saw Brandon Beachy in a similar light last year.
Kris Medlen
This would probably be my choice. Medlen will be with the Braves for certain, but what capacity is still up for debate. The Braves want him in the bullpen, but they will stretch him out as a starter throughout the spring. Since triple-A can do some good for Teheran and Delgado, using Medlen for the first four to seven starts then transitioning him to the bullpen could be a great way to maximize effectiveness from the fifth starter role while giving the younger prospects an opportunity to get more seasoning in the minors. He sports a career 4.22 FIP as a starter compared to a 2.72 mark as a reliever, so his strength is not in the rotation. However, for the short-term, I think he is the best option.
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Do you think that the 5th starter will move to the pen after Huddy returns, regardless of who wins the job?
Not necessarily. Teheran or Delgado would almost definitely go to the minors, while Medlen would certainly be put into the bullpen.
Does this post assume Minor will get the 4th starter position? How certain is this?
And what about Arodys Vizcaino? Does he have a shot at the 5th starter position?
I’m assuming Minor is already a lock? Hanson, JJ, Beachy, Minor, Teheran sounds like a stout rotation for the first month or 2. With Huddy out is opening day pretty much up for grabs?
Vizcaino is expected to be in the bullpen. I’m not even sure if he will start in the spring.
Minor should be in the rotation from day one, barring injury or an absolutely atrocious spring.
On opening day, it will probably be Hanson or Jurrjens if they prove to be healthy enough through the spring. Beachy would be the next option, I would assume.
I agree with giving Medlen the 5th starter spot out of spring training. Give the kid a shot, if he excels like he did last year then great, but if he struggles he can always go to the bullpen and Teheran/Delgado/Hudson can fill in that spot. Everybody wins
Also, while I’m glad Hanson has changed his delivery and I think it will help him in the long term, I’m nervous that this switch will affect his performance this coming year. I imagine the delivery will feel awkward for some time, and it will take a while for him to get comfortable with the arm and body action. Would it be possible to compile a list of pitchers who significantly changed their deliveries to determine how it affected their performances? Or maybe easier, is there another pitcher who roughly fits Hanson’s profile and adjusted his delivery between seasons?
Ben,
With our surplus of pitching, I know Braves fans everywhere are looking for a ‘big trade’ to go down.
Do you know what it would take for 1 of our studs to be traded? And if/when that happens does it just happen around the All-star break when we are looking for something?
Thanks!
Why not try a six man rotation early since they are all either young or coming off injuries?
I had the same thoughts on Teheran and Delgado, that they both might need a tad more time in the minors. I rolled my eyes when I heard Fredi talking about putting them in the ‘pen. In addition to those two guys not getting regular opportunities to fine tune everything, wouldn’t we be forced to place either Christian Martinez or Jairo Ascensio on waivers?
I think using Medlen for the first few weeks makes the most sense. When Hudson is ready Medlen can just move back to the pen. The bullpen is deep enough that Medlen starting for a few weeks shouldn’t hurt anything.
Plus, there’s no reason to burn service time with Teheran and Delgado when they both can really benefit from additional AAA time.
However, this question will be a constant theme the entire season whenever a starter misses a start. The answer I think depends on Wren’s long term plans for each of the pitchers.
Obviously there’s not enough slots for everybody. At some point somebody will get traded, its just a matter of who and when. I hope Wren has a long term plan here rather just playing by ear.
I like the idea of medlin filling in the fifth spot. He is a guy that hasnt really had any trade talk about him that I think would be a good chip. Coming off an injury, it would be a good idea to give him a few starts to get his stock back up and then use him as a piece to get a player that the braves might need. He is a very valuable player but seems to be the odd man out in both the rotation and the bullpen.
1. Hanson
2. Jurrjens
3. Beachy
4. Minor
5. Medlen
Bullpen
Kimbrel
Venters*
EOF*
Martinez
Varvaro
Vizcaino (if he doesn’t go back to AAA to start)
Ascencio (think he has a better shot than others because he’s out of options).
Oswalt
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Delgado
Kimbrel
Venters
O’Flaherty
Medlen
Ascencio
Martinez
Fish
I like the idea of Meds filling in for Huddy while he is out. Gives him another shot at proving if he has what it takes to be a starter and as #10 said delays the service clock on Teheran and Delgado.
@12 JJ wants to know when he changed his name to Oswalt.
Very much looking forward to seeing Minor pitch thru a full season and see how he will go.
Medlen to break camp as 5th SP is a very sound strategy. Teheran & Delgado could essentially job-share their way through 2012 as emergency call ups or mid season trade of one of our SP.
Oswalt? Did I miss something?
Trade Jurrjens for prospects or 4th OF.
Oswalt has said he would take a one year deal and wants to play near his home in MS. Shouldn’t take more than the 5 mil they are paying JJ to sign him.
I’d rather have Oswalt pitching in the postseason than JJ.
Both have injury concerns.
@15 /Vinny
Trading an AS pitcher with two years of team control for a 4th OFer is horrible value for us.
The exact return for JJ is obviously debatable, but the point is that he can bring a return that will help this team.
@18
Neither a 4th OFer nor prospects help this team right now. A healthy JJ does.
Wren never puled the trigger on a trade because he didn’t like what was being offered in return. Trading JJ is not a necessity.
So an upgrade from Diaz and Constanza wouldn’t help this team?
So a 3B or CF prospect wouldn’t help this team? Chip and Bourn are gone soon.
So a SS that actually has MLB experience and isn’t Jinx Wilson wouldn’t help this team?
I disagree.
And a healthy JJ does in fact help this team, but so does a healthy Oswalt, possibly moreso than JJ.
Everyone talks about how much pitching depth the Braves have, but most of it is essentially unproven and history shows that even highly-touted pitching prospects often flame out. I understand they are young, but until Teheran and Delgado actually prove they can be effective big-league starters (and I don’t mean five innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, with 106 pitches), they are still just prospects. Minor and Beachy are somewhat more proven but they had great difficulty getting past the fifth inning last year. Without Hudson and with Hanson a question mark, the Braves seem to be looking at another year where the bullpen has to pitch a lot. Now, obviously things can change; maybe the young pitchers will mature in a hurry and so forth. The best thing you can say about the Braves pitching is that they have a lot of guys that could keep them in games. That’s nothing to sneeze at but, until I see these guys develop into solid starters, I remain skeptical.
The team desperately needs an upgrade at 4th outfielder this year. Someone has to play LF when Chipper is out.
Bourn is gone after this year, and one way or another the Braves are gonna have to find a 3B and a LF in the next year or two.
At some point Wren is going to have to trade pitching for hitting. Considering the current need at 4th outfielder and the current bottleneck with the pitching prospects, I think the sooner he manages to swing a trade the better.
@20 /Vinny
An upgrade over Diaz or Constanza is fine. Trading a pitcher of JJ’s ability for said upgrade is a waste of resources.
If you want to trade him for a potential 3B or CF, great. When Prado and JJ were mentioned in trade rumors to Colorado, the message board wish list seemed to revolve around Arenado (3B), Fowler, and Wheeler (CF).
When JJ was mentioned in a possible trade with Detroit, most people I talked to wanted Nick Castellanos (3B).
However, those are not necessary pieces right now. Prado can slide to 3B when Chipper retires and there is always a chance that a guy like Lipka takes a step forward this year in CF. If not, we still have an abundance of pitching depth we can tap into if necessary.
As for SS, all I care about is the glove. If the Rev plays solid D, I’m happy. Anything he provides with the bat is a bonus.
I’d put money on Oswalt being hurt before JJ. Oswalt is much older and dealing with a bad back. That’s pretty scary for a pitcher.
I love our pitchers, but a rotation of
1) Hanson
2) Jurjjens
3) Hudson
4) Minor
5) Teheran
6) Delgado
7) Medlen
8) Beachy
Frankly is an uncertain proposition. 4 of the pitchers have injury concerns, and the rest are simply unproven as dependable starters for an entire season. Frankly half of them could end up underperforming for any number of reasons. All 8 could pitch great too. Given we have almost no sure things in the rotation, we need the depth at this time.
In addition, we have no guys that are consistently dominant. Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens have shown the ability to be “dominant” over stretches, but none of Halladay, Sabathia type talents. Our pitching advantage is the fact that our 3-5 guys will probably be better than your 3-5 guys. Given our starting pitching, we probably need all these guys in the rotation. Trading a pitcher for a fourth outfielder or a replacement level position player simply isn’t worth the risk. The return ahs to be better.
Tap into the depth.
Given that Hudson is out till May, Hanson & JJ returning from injuries and innings limit on the young arms I don’t think Wren will trade JJ now.
However when Hudson is fully back and if Hanson/Minor/Beachy all have decent start to 2012 I think JJ could be trade bait before the deadline. This would assume JJ is injury free and posted OK numbers to start the season.
I do agree that we need to tap into our depth to shore up position of weakness but also glad that Wren did not make a Tex-type trade just because we could. The pitching prospects in lower levels do not project as well so it will be important for us to look after the current crop of pitching prospects and not rush them in.
Its possible that if Beachy pitches well during the first half of the year that he could be the team’s most valuable trade chip at the deadline.
I’m not sure if the Braves would trade him, but we saw with deals like the Gio Gonzalez trade that young controllable pitchers with a solid track record can yield a handful of top-notch prospects.
27/Bobby Hill,
True, but holding onto young controllable pitchers with a solid track record is probably the better bet than trading for unproven prospects, unless we’re talking a Mike Trout or Troutesque caliber prospect.
I couldn’t see the Braves trading a 25-year old SP who’s under team control until 2017 unless they got majorly overwhelmed.
If we trade Beachy, I will blow up the internet. I love watching him pitch.
I agree with posts above. We should hold onto our depth for now. Too many questions at this point.
Medlen makes tons of sense as the 5th starter to begin the season. He has proven he can win as a MLB stater. Medlen would return to the BP when Hudson is ready in May.
This would allow the Braves to keep Martinez and Asencio, both who are out of options, as well as R. Fish the LHer selected in the Rule 5 draft. I personally would like to see Vizcanio back in AAA as a starter. That is where he has the most value next season and beyond.
Rotation: JJ, Hanson, Beachy, Minor and Medlen.
BP: Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flarherty, Asencio, Martinez and Varvaro. This last spot in the pen would either be the rule 5 pick Fish or one of Gerrrin, Chapman, Moylan.
Usually by the end of ST one of the pitchers will pull a groin or have a sore arm. This would open up a BP slot for Medlen when Hudson returns.
Well thought out coloradobravesfan. You sound like a baseball consultant in the making.
Historically, Braves GMs have played their cards close to the vest and not made trade talks public until trades were completed. I suspect the same will occur this time. Wren will find another bat when he needs it. I think trading JJ for a solid hitter– after Hudson returns– is the best course of action. Prado should not be traded. He had a down year in 2011 because of injuries, but he may return to a 20/80/.300 hitter. He needs to be available this year and in the long run to play 3B or LF. I am surprised that no one talks about the possibility of moving McCann to 3B when Chipper retires. That would prolong the career of the Braves best hitter. Finding a good defensive catcher is easier than finding a power hitting 3B. Johnny Bench could have played three more years if he had switched positions.
Jim
@32
Perhaps the explanation for the fact that nobody has talked about moving McCann to 3rd when chipper retires lies in the fact that McCann can’t play 3rd.
Certainly a good point, Franklin, and, as you might suspect, one that had not escaped me. When I talk about the “possibility” of McCann shifting positions to prolong his career, I realize, as we all do, that he would need instruction –probably in the offseason. I have always believed that if you have a catcher who could hit as well as McCann hits, the entire team benefits from a positional change. Witness Buster Posey for a more current example than Johnny Bench.
Jim
@34
No amount of coaching is going to make Brian McCann quick enough to play an adequate third base. In such a scenario, we’d be better of simply trading him to an AL team as a DH. Or a team who wants to put him at 1B (where his bat would be completely average).
Franklin, I disagree. I think McCann has the quick hands and quick reactions that would enable him to become a very good 3B. If it were a postion that required foot speed, I would certainly agree with you. But the skill set required to block a pitch in the dirt or field a hot grounder is much the same. I suspect we will never see this issue resolved on the playing field….but many catchers are also good 3B. Brandon Inge, for example.
Jim
@36
Brandon Inge was always considered to be extremely athletic for a catcher. Brian McCann has never been considered athletic for a catcher. Sure, range isn’t nearly as important at 3rd as it is SS, but it is still very important. A slow 3rd baseman can put a tremendous burden on the SS, pitcher and even catcher to make up for their lack of range. Sure, a handful of catchers can become good 3rd basemen, but not all catchers are created equal. Some, like Craig Biggio, for example, are actually very fast. Bethancourt is a very athletic catcher that could potentially play 3rd base. Brian McCann simply isn’t. And yes, you are right, this won’t ever be settled on the field, because they’re never going to try him at 3rd.
Chipper’s loss of range is already costing us runs at 3rd base, and chipper has tremendous hands, a highly accurate throwing arm, and amazing instincts for the position. And he’s faster than McCann. If we put McCann at 3rd, the opposition could just bunt the ball at him all day long for free hits.
Is this real life?
McCann should stay at catcher
Prado should move back to third
We should eventually trade whatever pitcher gets us the best hitting OF (not now, not necessarily even mid season, but at some point)
Seems simple to me