Medlen and Vizcaino Boost Bullpen
February 26, 2012 at 11:29 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Pitching
Last season, the Braves received 119.2 innings out of the combination of Scott Linebrink (54.1), George Sherrill (36.0), and Scott Proctor (29.1). While Sherrill was actually reasonably effective as a left-handed specialist, the other two provided very little value during their Braves’ tenures. Proctor recorded a 6.06 FIP while Linebrink sported a 4.30 mark. Combined, the three totaled -0.5 fWAR.
The replacements for these three are expected to be Kris Medlen, Arodys Vizcaino, and a combination of Robert Fish, Anthony Varvaro, Cory Gearrin, Jairo Asencio, and potentially a few others. It should not be too difficult for these three positions to outperform the negative value provided by the three departed members of the bullpen.
Vizcaino is a good bet to receive 60 or so innings out of the bullpen, which would be more than any non-big three reliever last year – aside from long reliever Christhian Martinez. Taking high leverage innings away from O’Flaherty, Kimbrel, and Venters will be beneficial to their arms over the course of the season, and the value of Vizcaino’s innings over theirs is likely close to equal.
Medlen will probably take some of Martinez’s long innings and the middle relief innings, where the team is tied earlier in the game or down by as many as three runs in the later part of the game, which was when Linebrink was utilized last year. If Medlen does not start any games this year, a reasonable projection should be between 70-80 innings. If Fish misses the roster, Medlen will probably be used against stretches of lefties in the middle innings, where Sherrill was used last year.
The final spot, which will probably be filled a mix of the aforementioned relievers, will probably be used more as a mop up role. This spot will be important on days where the back-end relievers are resting or during double headers, but the importance of most of their innings will be minimal. Varvaro, Proctor, Asencio, Moylan, and Gearrin totaled 65 innings, which will probably be similar this season.
In essence, Vizcaino and Medlen will be asked to throw between 120-140 innings in relatively high leverage situations. Medlen will also probably throw 20-30 long relief type innings as well, which should push Martinez’s total down the same amount. Adding these two relievers to replace the innings thrown by the three departed bullpen arms should be a significant upgrade. The final spot will not be filled with very effective relievers, but there are a few specialty arms that can be of value at points. Regardless, this pitcher will not be asked to throw too many important innings.
Medlen’s success as a reliever should be noted. In 75.1 innings as a reliever, he has a 2.72 FIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the bullpen is 3.17. That type of success as the team’s fourth or fifth best reliever will be of huge value to the Braves this year. For Vizcaino, we have not seen enough of him out of the bullpen to peg his exact value in that role, and ZiPS projections have him as a starter. Fangraphs fan projections, however, have him at a 3.43 ERA over 67 innings, which seems pretty reasonable. Sure, he could flop, but this is the type of role many of us have anticipated him excelling at.
The addition of Medlen and Vizcaino to an already dominant bullpen may be the biggest acquisition the team has made this year. Instead of falling further behind in games due to Linebrink or Proctor, these two should be able to hold teams where they are at much more frequently, which should make it easier for the offense to come back. For depth purposes, an injury to one of the back-end types should not be crippling either, and a strength will likely not become a weakness with a hobbled closer or set up man.
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I’m definitely looking forward to the bullpen dominance again this year. Ben, how effective do you think Moylan will be if he comes back later in the year? Also, does serving as a reliever hurt Vizcaino’s possible development as a starter?
@1 /Ryan D
I’m not a big fan of Viz in the pen. The two things he needs to do to be a starter are stretch out his arm (he only threw 114 innings last year) and command of his third pitch. Both of those things are best accomplished in Gwinnett.
But its hard to take him out of the pen when we have so many quality arms and he has the potential to be a top of the line setup man with an upwards of 97-98 mph fastball and a pretty good breaking ball. i do think he has a ton of value as a starter, but with so many other arms in the system, its not a bad problem to have that he stays in the bullpen. I also think we should keep an eye on how natalie feliz does as a starter this year, he was a starter in the minors then moved to closer and now they are stretching him out, so he might be a good indicator of how a younger arm handles the change
Didn’t Viz have a partial tear in his elbow? Any word on whether or not that has completely healed?
I really hope that we keep Vizzy in AA or AAA as a starter. I know he has two 70 pitches and a 35-40 pitch in his change, which profiles him as a reliever, and him hurting his elbow two years ago furthers the argument. But elbows can heal and his should be very close to fully healed, if not fully healed. I honestly don’t think it’s worthwhile to put a highly touted prospect like Vizzy as our 5th reliever. When all he needs to do to become a ToR guy is work his change into the 50 range, and polish his command, which seemed surprisingly good when I saw him pitch, a little bit.
Interested to see how Feliz will convert back to a starter after 2 successful years as a closer for the Rangers. Our current team will benefit more with Vizcaino in the pen but that may not be the case in 2 years time. The unknown is if he could convert back to being a SP or will the time spent as a reliever hurt his long term development?
Vavaro, Medlen & Asencio must surely be upgrades over Linebrink, Sherill & Proctor. I agree with @5 that it seems Vizcaino will benefit more spending time in AAA.
Although I do think Vizcaino would be a great reliever, I’d like to see him in AAA as a starter this year. I think he could develop into a great starter. I know the Braves have a ton of starting pitching depth, so this could also make Vizcaino a bigger trade piece, as opposed to him being moved to bullpen full time. Let him start to open the season. If by midseason the bullpen is looking bad, you can always bring him up. Obviously the 8th and 9th innings are locked down. If Medlen and EOF can do a good job in the 7th, I don’t think the Braves necessarily need Viz for the middle innings. A combination of Varvaro, Hoover and Martinez should be good enough. I think it is worth noting Martinez really came on late in the year. Not many designated “long” guys hold opponents to a .197 average and a 3:1 K/BB. Hoover was outstanding when moved to the pen in the second half. Try these guys for the middle innings. Vizcaino could be a great reliever. So could Teheran and Delgado. But they should develop these guys as starter and move them to the pen when they show they can’t be big league starters.
IF the Braves view Vizcaino as a bullpen guy in the long run (or due to the plethora of other rotation options), wouldn’t it be wise to trade him to a team that views him as a potential #2 starter rather than run him out there in the 7th inning for the next three years and kill his trade value? Maybe they could get a nice hitting prospect for him (examples: Cheslor Cuthbert, Jake Marisnick, Christian Yelich). They could certainly use one of those.
I also don’t see the point in wasting a cheap year of Viz so he can be the 4th (at best) option out of the BP.
EOF is going to get even more expensive next year, and will be a prime non-tender candidate. That would be the perfect time to stick Viz in the BP full time.
Wren WILL need to trade for a bat at some point this season (either for SS, OF or 3B), and having Viz as a starting prospect in AAA will be 10x more valuble on that front than having him pitching the 6th inning in Atlanta.
I think Viz should be in the bullpen even if just for the year. It is a way of slowing him down in terms of taxing his electric arm. Plus it does give him at least a little bit of flexibility maybe to work on his changeup. I have heard it looks a little better this spring which is a good sign of his growth. His delivery also seems more conducive to a bullpen guy. The bullpen for a guy who needs his innings managed still because of the slight elbow ligament tear 2 years ago is a great way to get his feet wet in the majors.
I’m not sure about the “plethora of other options” at least in the long run. Hudson is 36 and has a bad back. Hanson has shoulder issues and, no matter what the team says, that has to be a red flag. JJ has had injury problems, albeit non with his arm, and there is some question as to whether he can continue to get good results with mediocre peripherals. Beachy and Minor have promise but didn’t provide many innings. I realize the Braves need a deeper bullpen given how much the top guys were used, but when you have a guy with great stuff, I think the default position should always be starter until he proves he can’t do it.
Viz has more value to this team as a reliever than he would for a team like the phillies, because there will be a greater load of innings (and high leverage) situations that braves starters will not account for. Shortening the game to six innings will prove to be a huge asset a Beachy figures out how to pitch deeper into games and guys like Teheran and Delgado have innings limits.
@10 /Mike
To do the things you mentioned (work on the change, limit his innings), you keep him in AAA. The ML roster, with a running arb clock and a real chance to make the playoffs, is not the place to tinker. Stick Viz in AAA, limit him to ~130 innings, and work his change into an above average pitch. That is not only doable, but if you combine it with a healthy season he instantly becomes a TOR candidate and allows you the luxury of moving a pitcher at the break.
But do u see the Braves maybe adding who ever is the odd man out along with Minor for a big bat or SS?
I have to get used to seeing “Robert Fish” and not freaking out because I think Robert Fick is coming back.
Have to agree that keeping games close, even when you’re trailing, is something that potentially Medlen and Viz will do lightyears better than last year’s tag team of Linestink/Proctologist. When you’re down by 2 or 3, your starter is out of the game, allowing the other team to tack on more is such a buzz kill.
Definitely looking forward to having Medlen and Vizcaino in the pen for the full season. Bullpen should be even better than it was last year. Now if only our starters could get deeper into games we will have it made.