Braves and xBABIP
February 29, 2012 at 12:15 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Statistical Analysis
Here is a summary on xBABIP from The Hardball Times.
Below is each players BABIP and xBABIP, followed by their actual slash lines against their expected slash lines
| BABIP | xBABIP | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Bourn | 0.369 | 0.359 |
| Martin Prado | 0.266 | 0.315 |
| Chipper Jones | 0.295 | 0.328 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.253 | 0.314 |
| Brian McCann | 0.287 | 0.307 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.339 | 0.335 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.260 | 0.318 |
| Alex Gonzalez | 0.285 | 0.305 |
| Nate McLouth | 0.270 | 0.309 |
| Jordan Schafer | 0.307 | 0.337 |
Most of the players received less luck than expected. The only players who actually had a BABIP higher than their expected mark were Freeman and Bourn, and most of Bourn’s plate appearances were in Houston (both he and Schafer’s above marks are overall totals, not just with Atlanta). While lack of patience was a big part of the Braves’ offensive issues last year, poor luck on balls in play was also a problem.
| Actual | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bourn | .294 | .349 | .360 |
| Martin Prado | .260 | .302 | .383 |
| Chipper Jones | .275 | .344 | .473 |
| Dan Uggla | .233 | .311 | .455 |
| Brian McCann | .270 | .351 | .472 |
| Freddie Freeman | .282 | .346 | .454 |
| Jason Heyward | .227 | .319 | .386 |
| Alex Gonzalez | .241 | .270 | .374 |
| Nate McLouth | .228 | .344 | .330 |
| Jordan Schafer | .242 | .309 | .305 |
That is not a very impressive list of slash lines. Only three players have a combination of an on base percentage above .340 and a slugging percentage over .400. For a borderline playoff team, it is astonishing that the Braves had so much success without much offense. Consider the fact that two of the three players who qualified for the above benchmarks missed several games, and it becomes even more astonishing that the Braves won 89 games.
That group of lines would cause one to believe that the offense should be upgraded. The below chart shows why Frank Wren and the Braves’ front office were wise to keep this offense in tact.
| xSlash | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bourn | .286 | .341 | .352 |
| Martin Prado | .303 | .343 | .426 |
| Chipper Jones | .301 | .367 | .499 |
| Dan Uggla | .275 | .348 | .497 |
| Brian McCann | .285 | .364 | .487 |
| Freddie Freeman | .279 | .344 | .451 |
| Jason Heyward | .270 | .357 | .429 |
| Alex Gonzalez | .257 | .285 | .390 |
| Nate McLouth | .260 | .370 | .361 |
| Jordan Schafer | .264 | .330 | .327 |
Now this is an offense that should be in the upper echelon of the National League. Prado and Chipper should have been .300 hitters according to xBABIP, and Jason Heyward would have had a solid sophomore campaign. Nate McLouth and Jordan Schafer actually look like better players too, but as we stated here many times during Schafer’s hot streak, McLouth is the better hitter– this shows that as well. Uggla’s expected line actually has the biggest change from his actual line. Those numbers are in line with his career rates, more or less. A year like that out of Uggla this year would be huge, to say the least.
While the offense’s BABIPs are not expected to match their xBABIPs perfectly, having so many under-perform is simply bad luck. A few recording marks lower than expected is understandable, but basically the whole offense hitting worse than they should have is an anomaly. Expect the Braves to hit much better this year, specifically Prado, Heyward, and Uggla.
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I wonder how much being forced to swing at bad pitches due to ill advised hit and runs could have impacted it. With that many all having below expected babips, something more almost had to be going on. That’s unlucky to the point of being suspicious.
To the extent Heyward bounces back this year, I don’t think it would be because of luck. In other words, it wouldn’t simply be that his BABIP vs xBABIP delta in 2011 corrected itself; rather, it would be that he got his mechanics in order and hit like he was capable. He’s probably (or, potentially) a unique case since he changed his swing so much in 2011, but my point is that “bad luck” doesn’t necessarily explain everything for these players.
I don’t buy that Heyward’s swing was as messed up as most believe or assume. There was definitely an issue, as shown by the crazily high infield fly rate, but the rest of his numbers are pretty much in line with the season previous. He struck out the same amount, had a similar contact rate, and his ISO was not too far off his number the year before.
From what I’m looking at, poor luck was as big of a factor as any type of poor mechanics he had with his swing.
Swinging at poor pitches = more weak contact = less “luck” on BABIP.
Indeed, but being able to make contact at the same rate shows that it wasn’t all in his swing.
With so many guys under-performing, it really makes you wonder what was going on. Seems like more to it than just bad luck. I know hitting coaches get too much flak when things go bad but I’m interested to see how things go this year. Is it possible that Fredi and Parish were stressing stuff that just didn’t work with the hitters?
Great information! I’ve been having such a hard time convincing people that the Braves offense should be much improved with basically the same group of players. Now I actually have some facts to back it up!