Mark Anderson Breaks Down Pastornicky and Simmons
March 2, 2012 at 11:29 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Prospects
Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation, just posted a breakdown of Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons over at FanGraphs.
Pastornicky will play in the big leagues and he could have a regular role at shortstop as soon as this season. That said, few scouts I’ve spoken with think he’ll be a consistent first-division regular. Instead, the consensus I’ve gotten is that he’ll be more of a second-division shortstop or top-notch utility player. One scout I spoke with compared Pastornicky to Willie Bloomquist. It’s a comparison that grows on me every time I see Pastornicky in person, but it’s hardly one that elicits visions of stardom and championships.
Simmons’ glove alone will get him to the big leagues, and he has a chance to be a defensive star. How his bat develops is the big question. If he continues to hit for average — even without significant secondary skills — he’ll be a first-division regular who can provide considerable value to a championship-level club. That potential gives Simmons the edge in my prospect evaluations.
He makes a good point. The floor for Pastornicky is higher but the ceiling for Simmons is significantly greater. It’s a really good breakdown featuring information he has picked up from scouts and his own opinion. Check it out.
EDIT
I have been saying for a few months on twitter that I see a lot of David Eckstein in Pastornicky. Mark’s report furthers those feelings. Normally a saber site comparing anything to Eckstein is a negative, but he was an effective shortstop for a while, just not to the level that announcers and writers claimed. He’s a hard worker, with good contact, speed, and decent defense aside from a weak throwing arm. If he can be average everywhere, he will be an asset to the team this season.
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I find it interesting that Simmons posted an almost identical wOBA and wRC+ despite a lofty .52 point bump in his BABIP from year 1 to year 2.
6 points in wRC+ is a pretty big improvement. Also keep in mind that SB and CS are factored into both of those, so Simmons terrible SB rate (which he’s doing more so now than he ever would in games that matter) last year drags down his hitting numbers.
Being listed at 6’2″ 170 right now, he definitely has room to fill out and grow. As he naturally matures and fills out I would assume, along with the combination of “quick bat speed and strong wrists”, he would gain a lot of power. Anderson doesn’t seem to think so though. Any reason for this?
This will be a very telling year about the future at SS. Its going to be exciting to see how Pastornicky handles the big leagues and if Simmons can continue to progress in the minors. Definitely staying tuned in.
Glad to see your comments about Eckstein. He was certainly overrated for his “grit” by commentators but some act as if he was the worst player of all time. He was a decent player and I think he should get some credit for getting the most out of relatively limited skills.
As for the Braves, let’s face it, Pastornicky is getting this chance because there is no one else available. The Braves get lauded for moving their young players into the lineup so quickly but part of that is that the limited payroll.
But the thing is that Pastornicky doesn’t need to do much to be an improvement over Alex Gonzalez offensively. All I worry about is him catching the ball on a consistent basis.
Simmons has so much more upside, he just doesn’t look ready yet. More fodder for debate here:
http://braveslog.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/pastornicky-and-simmons-battle-for-starting-spot/