Andrew McCutchen’s Deal and Jason Heyward
March 5, 2012 at 2:32 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Economic Analysis
It was reported late last night that Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates agreed to a six-year, $51.5 million contract with a $14.75 million club option. I have been tossing around the idea of Heyward signing a contract buying out his arbitration years, and as outfielders with a similar amount of service time, McCutchen’s deal could be a good place for negotiations to start.
McCutchen’s deal looks like a discount. According to Rib Biertempfel, McCutchen will receive $500k this season, followed by $4.5mm, $7.25mm, $10mm, $13mm, $14mm, followed by the option worth $14.75mm with a $1mm buyout.
While it is likely a discount for McCutchen, who has accumulated 12.9 fWAR over his two plus years in the Major Leagues, including a 5.7 win season in 2011. As MLB Trade Rumors explains, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton signed almost identical deals at nearly identical service times as McCutchen. Below is the breakdown for each of their contracts.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCutchen | 0.5 | 4.5 | 7.25 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 49.25 |
| Bruce | 2.75 | 5 | 7.5 | 10 | 12 | 12.5 | 50 |
| Upton | 0.5 | 4.25 | 6.75 | 9.75 | 14.25 | 14.5 | 50 |
The remainder in each deal was used for their signing bonus. At the time of the signed contracts, McCutchen’s fWAR sits at an aforementioned 12.9, Upton had accumulated 10 wins, and Bruce 8. Currently, Jason Heyward is at a comparable amount of service time, though the others were brought up close to mid-way through their rookie seasons rather than right out of spring training as Heyward did. Because of this, they each had a bit more service time which resulted in higher win totals. Heyward has totaled 7.3 fWAR since his debut.
This type of contract would be beneficial to both the team and Heyward, as the Braves have the opportunity to potentially save money over the course of the next six years and Heyward would have the security behind him regardless of how he performs going forward. After this past year and with the injuries he has accumulated in the minors and in Atlanta, this type of security could be worth it for him.
I do not expect the Braves to do it, mainly because I am not sure that Heyward would sign it and I also think the Braves want to make sure everything with Heyward is righted before they sign him for a number of years. Regardless, I think this is a good template for Heyward and the Braves would be wise to at least make this type of offer to him. With payroll being tight and Heyward having massive potential, signing him for the next six years at a potential discount could help in other future transactions.
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I agree with this analysis. I agree that this would be a good template, perhaps with even a discount on these numbers due to his last year. I also agree that this won’t happen for Heyward now. The Braves would be leery of the backlash that might ensue if they signed this deal after last season and then he got hurt again. Heyward has to be confident that whatever the Braves offerend him now, he could improve on with a good season. If we offerend him the McCutchen deal, he turned it down and then he blew up this season, he would have a lot more leverage, knowing that the Braves already offerend the McCutchen deal.
So while it’s a deal I’d like to see, I just don’t see either side wanting to do the deal at all right now. Perhaps after the season is over, but now the Braves FO is probably too risk averse for it and Heyward is probably too self confident to do it after a down year.
I believe it’s premature now. Hopefully he shows the promise he did his rookie year, but when slumping he looked bad at the plate. On a different note, we don’t know if he can stay healthy through a full year. If he has picked up offensively by Mid season, then I would be aggressive with that deal. Hopefully ATL have learned their lesson with McCann. I think resigning McCann is now a lost cause.
Looks like you guys had a great time! We need to make plans to head down together when the Braves play the Nationals. Ya’ll can come down early and spend the night to break up the drive! : )
@2
Why in the world do you think re-signing McCann is a lost cause? We already signed him to a contract like the one that is being discussed above. We have McCann under control for two more years. If re-signing McCann is a lost cause, it will be simply because McCann knows he could get more money from a deep pockets AL team, but that was going to be the case no matter what and there’s nothing the Braves could have done about it.
If Heyward plays in 150 games and puts up .285/.400/.450, I say lock him down after the season.
@4 He doesn’t even have to put up those numbers to warrant a deal. .250/.375/.450 would be plenty good for a deal.
The big thing is that if he does perform to those levels then signing him will become even more expensive and more difficult as well.
I was just thinking about this today, and I think we should sign the kid long term sooner rather than later. He will start raking soon. Plus I think it would take some pressure off of him.
He’s still a full season from arbitration. Any discussion on buying out his arb years is premature.
All three players mentioned were in the same situation.
Let me first say that i take anything ESPN writes with a grain a salt i still remember the article written at the end of heywards rookie season in which they analyzed 10 big time rookies/sophmores like stanton, hanson, mccutchen, posey, and so on and they said heyeard should be given a 10 year 100 mil contract now or whatever it takes to lock him down for the next decade and the braves would come up victorious
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove10/insider/news/story?id=6057707
requires insider
Do you think we should give McCann another big contract? I don’t.
Also, why hasn’t anyone offered David Ross a starting job somewhere?
Heyward has had one good season (really half a season), had a poor 2011 and has had a number of injuries. The impetus to sign him to a long-term deal seems predicated on the assumption that he is is actually going to be a star. But that’s not assured no matter what his talent level. I want to see him put together a solid full season, even if it raises his value. (And, if I were Heyward, I wouldn’t sign a deal coming off a bad season anyway if I have any confidence in my ability.) I suspect he will be a very good player but as George says above, let him prove it first and then be aggressive if he does. If he becomes a superstar, the Braves are probably going to lose him anyway; at best they could buy out a couple of his free agent years.
@3 I think McCann would LOVE to stay with the Braves, but knowing that ATL’s budget limit is $94M/yr I don’t see any feasible way to offer him a contract that doesn’t insult his value as a player…especially with the contract recently offered to Yadier Molina. I hope/wish for our sakes I’m wrong, but with $$ already tied up with Uggla and the money it would take to keep those currently going through arbitration, I just don’t see how. Maybe I am wrong, but I’d like to review the current contracts. Can you suggest the best link that covers ATL’s contract costs/who is arb eligible etc?
We have to remember that we have a lot of money tied up in Chipper. Once he retires at the end of the year we will have almost 16 million pluse if we happen to trade any pitchers because we are stacked in the minors and would be cheaper to bring up that talent and then we could afford McCann and Heyward. What about this?
i don’t know what people are saying about brian mccann that his contract was a lost cause! lol are u kidding me. the guy has hit 300+ every year since his rookie year plus over 20 homers 100 rbis he is the best catcher in the league by far numbers wise now as far as being the best defensive catcher no but he is the best offensive catcher in the league and the braves would be stupid not to lock him up for the next 6 years he is like 28 or something like that they should lock him up till he is like 35 he is the best catcher and every year he goes to the allstars! so just imagine what the guy would do in the AL as a DH he is batting 320avg 25 hr 100rbis shoot if he was a DH and didnt have to catch i think he would bat 330 with 40HR and 100rbis as a DH but as a catcher u can’t ask a guy to sit there and bat more then 300 25HR 100 rbis
McCann just might gives us a hometown discount.
@15 /rob
If you try harder, you might find a way to be even more wrong. Mac has hit over .300 twice in 6 years as a starter, he failed to reach 20 HRs once in that span, and he has never reached the 100 RBI mark in any season.
@14, Chipper might retire after this year, but if he stays relatively healthy and is at all productive, he might choose to give it another year. And if he stays in the lineup, his option might vest and the Braves would owe him a ton of money.
@16, McCann might do so, and probably would. But 5% off a LOT of money is still a LOT of money.
@15,
Did they ever teach you about periods and commas in school? Or are you just trying to appear breathless?