Mike Minor and Line Drives
March 7, 2012 at 12:45 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, Statistical Analysis
Mike Minor’s peripherals are a big reason for being so high on him. His current MLB ERA is 4.74, which will certainly alarm the average fan, but his FIP of 3.51 and xFIP of 3.63 are both better than league average over the past two years.
Minor has shown a solid ability post above average strikeout-to-walk ratios and a slightly better than average home run rate over his 24 Major League appearances. Those factors, the controllable ones, lead me and other saber-inclined baseball fans to expect Minor to begin to receive above average results to match the above average performance.
One thing I have noticed, however, is that his line drive rate over the past two years is concerning. His ERA is so high mainly due to high batting averages on balls in play. Over the past two years, his BABIP has sat at .379 and .350, respectively. The league average rate over the past two years has been .293 each season. While it is easy to point out that his BABIP should regress closer to the league average rate, the amount of line drives he has allowed may keep that number high.
The below charts use data taken from Brooks Baseball player cards, with the final five categories being Pitch IQ scores – greater than 100 is above average and under 100 is below average. For line drives and fly balls, the lower the rate the better.
| 2011 | Freq. | Ball | Whiff/Swing | GB/BIP | LD/BIP | FB/BIP | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA | 59% | 34.3% | 102 | 107 | 106 | 93 | 103 |
| SL | 9% | 42.6% | 76 | 69 | 110 | 141 | 82 |
| CU | 9% | 42.7% | 117 | 74 | 124 | 121 | 84 |
| CH | 22% | 28.6% | 97 | 89 | 101 | 119 | 87 |
| Career | Freq. | Ball | Whiff/Swing | GB/BIP | LD/BIP | FB/BIP | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA | 62% | 34.6% | 104 | 101 | 106 | 99 | 98 |
| SL | 7% | 41.7% | 80 | 76 | 105 | 138 | 84 |
| CU | 10% | 46.2% | 127 | 73 | 117 | 123 | 84 |
| CH | 22% | 31.7% | 105 | 94 | 97 | 111 | 91 |
Last year, line drives were hit on all of his pitches at a worse than average rate. This is somewhat of a worry, as line drives are generally the worst type of contact a pitcher can allow. It does strike me as somewhat odd that he is able to strike out so many batters while allowing such a large amount of line drives. And 24 appearances is hardly a large enough sample to say that these rates will remain constant throughout a career.
What is even more worrisome is that his xBABIP last year was .342. That type of expected BABIP could lead to Minor being the type of pitcher that annually under-performs in terms of ERA relative to DIPS. But again, he has just 24 appearances under his belt and these rates are not certain to repeat.
As an optimist and as someone who likes what Minor offers on the mound, I think the line drive rates are likely to decline. Either that, or his strikeout rates will drop. I do not see the latter happening, as he has posted stellar strikeout rates everywhere he has pitched as a professional. As high as I am on Minor — I made a bold prediction on RotoGraphs that he will be the team’s best pitcher this year — we all must use caution when projecting his future performance by simply regressing his BABIP. The line drives have been a concern, but I expect him to get that aspect of his game under control during his first full season as a Major League starter.
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xFIP doesn’t take xBABIP into account?
Nope, it’s just FIP with a league average home run/FB rate
In one of Minor’s first starts for the Braves, in Houston I believe, my first take away from watching him was that he seemed “easy” to hit. What I mean is, hitters squared up on him rather consistently and I think that is what is showing up in this line drive study. I haven’t yet seen anything from Minor that leads me to believe that he isn’t prone to solid contact, which would result in his BABIP being higher than average. From a mechanics point of view, I have always thought his 12 to 6 curve was easy to lay off because he doesn’t throw enough strikes with it. That leaves hitters seeking one pitch to sit on. Will be interesting to see if he develops better command with the big curve to which he can use more of an out pitch than relying on his fastball.
Good catch on the line drive rate and finding a solid reason for his underperformance vs. his periphs.
@3 – disagree with most of what you said. People swing at his curve pretty consistently; IMO – a big breaking ball like his shouldn’t be in the strike zone more often than his is. I don’t really think hitters are sitting on his FB either; if they are, the stats above suggest it isn’t helping the hitters any.
@Silver – I agree with you now on the fastball. Based on this he is getting squared up the least with his fastball and his changeup and he may be throwing the curve too much based on the contact rates. He’s not throwing the curve or slider 17% of the time, but based on these numbers I wonder that if he is going to make an adjustment he might start using the changeup more, assuming he can get the FB rate down. Good point on the fastball though. Overall, this study confirmed what I had wondered about Minor from the naked eye view.
* – Sorry, he is* throwing the curve or slider 17% of the time, not he’s not
Ben – I like the bold prediction on Minor. At the end of last year, I predicted that Beachy would be the best Braves pitcher in ’12. Actually, I hope we’re both wrong and that Huddy, Hanson, and JJ have ace-caliber seasons – I think the Braves will win more games that way.
Mike Minor has been the most impressive of our starters so far.