The Braves Nastiest Pitches

March 11, 2012 at 2:59 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves, PITCHf/x

Last night, I noticed Franklin and Josh McCarroll – who owns Braves-Nation.com – talking about ranking the Braves pitches. The idea seemed interesting and worthy of a bit of research, so I dug in and looked at all of the Braves pitches and ranked the top 15.

I used PITCHf/x results and Brooks Baseball player cards as evaluation tools. I looked at the career rates for each pitch rather than any single season. Pitch frequency was factored in, so pure results are not the only influence in the rankings. I also added FanGraphs win shares per 100 pitches, though I do not 100% agree with the results. Regardless, it was another way to evaluate each pitch and was useful in this analysis. The Whiff/Swing, GB/BIP, and GB/FB numbers are taken from Brooks Baseball’s Pitch IQ numbers, which Dan Brooks explains here. To explain shortly, 100 is average with a higher mark being better than average and a lower mark being below average. With all of that explained, below are the rankings. Enjoy!

1. Jonny Venters’s Sinker

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
62%	95.5	61.6%	13.2%	162	140	153	0.93

I detailed this pitch last month, and the article breaks down how and why this pitch is so effective. Using it as his primary pitch, and being thrown with both excellent velocity and movement, Venters sees tremendous success in both whiff rate and in inducing ground balls. That combination has led to Venters being arguably the best set-up man in baseball over the past two seasons.

2. Craig Kimbrel’s Fastball

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
72%	96.6	61.9%	19.9%	150	93	93	1.02

While Kimbrel could harness better command of this pitch, he stills see an absolutely absurd amount of swings and misses with his fastball. Most great secondary pitches have difficulty creating as many swings and misses as Kimbrel does with his four-seamer. Having the type of breaking ball he has certainly helps his heater’s results, but his fastball in itself is one of the top pitches in all of baseball.

3. Craig Kimbrel’s Curveball

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
27%	86.9	62.4%	19.9%	153	140	141	2.89

Another pitch I detailed, Kimbrel’s curveball is one of the rarer pitches in all of baseball. With the type of velocity and break, it is really in its own class of breaking balls. I will point you over this graph again, which I referenced in the previously linked article, as it exemplifies just how different his breaking ball is than any other pitcher’s. He also creates a ton of ground balls with the pitch, which is an added bonus.

4. Jonny Venters’s Slider

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
21%	85.9	64.6%	17.1%	166	145	143	3.94

While the sinker is the go to pitch for Venters, his slider is certainly no slouch. He uses it just over 21% of the time due to the effectiveness of his sinker, but the results almost mirror each other. In looking at the ground ball rates of both of his pitches, it is clear why his BABIP is consistently so low. If I was a hitter, and I have stated this in the past, my strategy against Venters would probably be to stand there and hope for a walk.

5. Brandon Beachy’s Fastball

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
61%	92.5	68.3%	21.3%	126	85	88	1.08

“Brandon Beachy has great command but underwhelming stuff.” That was the general perception of Beachy entering last year, and he shed that misnomer. As a starter, creating that amount of swings and misses with a four-seamer is simply phenomenal, and it was the main reason that Beachy had the highest strikeout-per-nine rate of any pitcher with at least 140 pitches thrown. His called strike rate emphasizes how solid his command is. His fastball compared with any other heater in the league last year, which is why we are so high on Beachy entering this season.

6. Kris Medlen’s Changeup

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
24%	81.3	68.7%	20.7%	130	88	88	0.7

This is the first changeup of the list and the first pitch that averages under 85mph. Medlen throws more strikes with his changeup than he does with his fastball, and creates tons of swings and misses and called strikes. This pitch allows him to destroy left-handed batters, as he has has a 3.26 FIP against them for his career. Medlen’s fastball and curve are both respectable pitches, but his changeup is his bread and butter.

7. Tommy Hanson’s Slider

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
27%	83.6	67.7%	18.9%	106	104	99	1.56

Tommy has an assortment of quality pitches, starting with his two breaking balls and solid fastball. His slider is the best of the bunch though, and he actually has seen more strikes per pitch from his slider than from his fastball. He has an above average whiff rate and ground ball rate with his slider, while also receiving a solid called strike rate.

8. Eric O’Flaherty’s Sinker

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
30%	92.2	67.6%	19.0%	119	120	117	1.44

If you are looking for the reason for O’Flaherty’s career resurgence since getting picked up off of waivers, you can look directly at the usage of his sinker. In 2007 he threw his fastball 32% of the time and his sinker 18%. Last year, he threw his sinker 48% of the time and his fastball 21%. The change into a sinker first pitcher has made him one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball.

9. Tim Hudson’s Sinker

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
48%	91.5	66.0%	18.8%	99	123	114	1.13

The elder statesman of the group, a list of top pitches on the roster that did not include Hudson’s infamous sinker would not be a list worth reading. While he does not create a ton of swings and misses with the pitch, his ground ball rate is superb. Hudson has an assortment of other quality pitches, but he relies on his sinker to do his “dirty work.”

10. Brandon Beachy’s Slider

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
18%	83.4	62.0%	12.2%	124	111	107	0.38

The development of Beachy’s slider also led to his tremendous strikeout rate last season, which may lead to a heavier reliance on the pitch going forward. He only stared throwing the pitch again last year, and he saw a ton of success with the offering. He could command the pitch better, and I expect he will with another year of using it against Major League hitting.

11. Arodys Vizcaino’s Curveball

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
34%	85.7	59.8%	12.2%	139	93	90	-1.36

This powerful curveball may eventually make Vizcaino’s two-pitch arsenal comparable to both Venters’s and Kimbrel’s. He is still developing his changeup, which could make him a very effective starter down the line as well. I expect he stays in the bullpen though, and his curveball will likely move up this list as the years continue.

12. Tommy Hanson’s Curveball

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
13%	75.9	55.9%	18.2%	120	110	105	0.79

This would be Hanson’s top pitch if he were able to command it a bit better. The curveball is a difficult pitch to harness for most pitchers, so his low strike rate is understood. He uses it as a strikeout pitch while in favorable counts, so more balls thrown is to be expected. He still generates a large amount of called strikes and missed swings, and this has been a huge reason for his 3.28 career ERA in 460.1 Major League innings.

13. Cristhian Martinez’s Changeup

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
30%	84.6	75.1%	9.3%	108	116	111	2.54

Some may be surprised at one of Martinez’s pitches making this list, but this is a legitimate out pitch that can be used to create outs in many different ways. While he does not see many called strikes with the pitch, he generates whiffs and ground balls at an above average rate. His command of the pitch is astounding, easily leading the list as the only pitch thrown for a strike over 70% of the time. Martinez is extremely underrated and his changeup is one of the main reasons why.

14. Tim Hudson’s Cutter

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
19%	86.1	62.2%	11.3%	135	112	109	-3.17

FanGraphs win shares do not like this pitch, but Brooks’s player cards certainly do. He is able to command the pitch relatively well as a secondary offering and it is by far his best pitch in terms of swings and misses. Plus, he still creates his patented ground balls with it as well.

15. Anthony Varvaro’s Fastball

Frequency	Velocity	Strk %	Called Str.	Whiff/Swing	GB/BIP	GB/FB	w/100
69%	93.1	64.7%	19.5%	125	85	86	1.4

Probably even more surprising than Martinez making this list, Varvaro’s fastball managed to sneak its way into the ranking. He could command it a bit better, but he generates tons of called strikes and whiffs with his four seamer. Having a primary pitch as good as Varvaro’s is vital for a reliever, and makes me partial to him being the final member of the bullpen. He will never be a top notch reliever, but his fastball gives him the ability to be a solid Major League middle man.

4 Comments

4 Responses to “The Braves Nastiest Pitches”

gobaisindustries says:

03/11/2012 at 4:51 PM EDT

So, what we learned is Kimbrel and Venters are absolutely nasty.

Reply
Delmar says:

03/11/2012 at 8:39 PM EDT

Good to see Medlen high on this list.

Reply
Andrew says:

03/12/2012 at 11:35 AM EDT

What!!! One of Derek Lowe’s pitches didnt make this list…! Outrageous (sarcasm)

Reply
Crazyman says:

03/12/2012 at 7:11 PM EDT

@andrew: Probably bc lowe is no longer with the team (shocking i know (SUPER SARCASM)) I am Very Glad to see that change, i never felt like Lowe was a 15mill per yr pitcher even in the day, especially not at 32 or 33..now if he wouldve performed like sept/oct of 2010 his whole career hed have been worth 20 per yr..sad to see all the money wasted when we couldve had more young talent but even with the bad start, i think this year will be really good

Reply