Reaction to Chipper’s Latest Quotes
March 12, 2012 at 11:13 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
News came out from Jon Paul Morosi and David O’Brien earlier today about Chipper Jones contemplating retirement. According to their articles, Chipper specifically said:
“Tomorrow might be my last day. I don’t know. I don’t really focus on it that much. The body is starting to tell me every morning when I wake up that it’s getting close. I’m signed through the end of this year. If I play a certain amount of games, I got an option for next year. I don’t know what next year entails. I don’t know if I can make it through this year.”
Those are some pretty powerful words coming from Jones, who turns 40 in April. With Opening Day less than a month away, Jones is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. Say he does retire, it would most likely force Martin Prado back to third base and leave a combination of Eric Hinske and Matt Diaz in left field. Utility man Drew Sutton is another option after he signed a minor-league deal with the club last off-season.
The big question appears to no longer be if Chipper will retire in 2012, but when. With his contract up at the end of the season, it’s hard to imagine Jones coming back for another campaign on knees that will only get worse. I find it hard to believe that he will wake up one day and make a sudden decision; rather, he has a very open relationship with the Braves management and might be able to give them a better indication.
His knees aren’t going to improve and it will likely show in his results on the field. That being said, even if his production from last season takes a slight dip, his presence would still give the Braves the best chance to succeed.
I’ve asked Ben, Franklin and David to also provide a quick write-up on the Chipper situation. Their thoughts are below:
I think when he says “I don’t know if I’m going to make it through the year,” he really means that he honestly does not know if he will. I don’t take it as he is thinking about hanging them up before hand, but that he’s honestly unsure if his body will handle the season. I don’t think this is much different than last year, but it was also a different situation with him coming off of knee surgery.
I talked about replacing him a few weeks ago and how the team would go about it. The best hope is that Drew Sutton for some reason reaches his potential and hits well enough to be a capable third baseman for 50 or so games. That probably won’t happen though, so a combination of Hinske, Diaz, Sutton, and either Constanza or Durango is the likely fill-in option unless someone is acquired during the year.
What could be very frustrating and actually hurt the team this year is if Chipper runs into nagging injuries consistently. If he suffers one big time injury and is deemed out for the season, the team can at least look for a permanent replacement for the rest of the season. If he has nagging injuries, it’s more difficult to do that and the team would have to play backups regularly. Hopefully he plays frequently and Sutton becomes a quality utility player. That’s being optimistic right now. – Ben Duronio
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I wouldn’t jump too quickly on thinking Chipper’s retirement is eminent at this point. Chipper is a very candid guy and if he feels down one day, he’s not going to hide it. I think right now he’s just sore, and got caught by reporters in a moment of him feeling like talking about it.
One issue that I think could come into play though is that if he gets close to losing his career .300 BA mark, I think he would hang it up. Chipper and his dad have mentioned Mickey Mantle hanging on too long and losing his career .300 average and not wanting that to happen to Chipper. I could see him getting down to .301 and suddenly his knee is killing him. Perhaps I’m too much of a pessimist, and we should give Chipper the benefit of the doubt there, but that’s my take on whether or not he will retire during this season: probably not unless he gets close to .299 or the Braves aren’t in contention.
Production wise, I think he’ll be mostly similar to last year where offensively he was still a valuable player. His defense will continue to erode and will be especially problematic if he plays next to Tyler Pastornicky, who has trouble making plays to the right. That all being said, Chipper was roughly a 2 win player last year and I think 1.5-2 wins are still reasonable from him this year. Chipper has perhaps the best plate approach in the game, allowing him to still leverage the skills he has to be a productive offensive player.
Replacing Chipper would be tough in the short term, as there just aren’t a lot of viable left field or third base options out there. None of the internal candidates would come close to being 1.75 win players. (Prado isn’t a replacement for Chipper, since we would then have to replace Prado). While it is theoretically possible that the opening up of Chipper’s salary could lead to finding an even better replacement, I don’t see who that player would be at this point. — Franklin J. Rabon
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I honestly feel like Chipper is just trying to play out the rest of his guaranteed contract as well as he can before hanging them up. It’s hard enough having to leave the game you have succeeded so much at, but to be forced to before your last deal is done has to make it that much worse. Chipper has been known to say things like this before when his body hurts, but I also feel like it’s becoming more realistic by the year.
Chipper is no longer the hitter he once was, and his health limits his defensive ability. However, he will always have value because of his eye at the plate. He may have had the worst numbers of his career last year, including his only OBP below .350, but he still walked at a rate of 10% and was worth two wins.
And if he can’t make it through this entire season, the Braves will be forced to make a serious move. If some thought they lacked a bat in left field before, think about what it would be like with Martin Prado at third base full-time. You may be able to get by a combination of Matt Diaz and Luis Durango/Jose Constanza over a short stretch, and you may get production from Drew Sutton in the infield, but it probably wouldn’t work over a long period of time.
If it comes to the point where Chipper is forced from the game, the Braves will have to do something to either fill left field or fill third base and keep Prado in left. Neither will be easy, and neither will be cheap. Jair Jurrjens may be counting down his days in Atlanta much quicker. – David Lee
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JJ and prospects(the terd and pitching prospect) for david wright????
I don’t look forward to the day Chipper hangs up his cleats, but perhaps it’s best that we emotionally prepare ourselves for not seeing him on the field much this year. The end is soon. Sad times, but it’s been a fantastic career!
Anyways, along with manpiit’s comment, what are the chances to get David Wright? A good idea to go for him now instead of waiting for Chipper to retire during the season?
I don’t know the man at all, but these comments feel different to me. CJ almost sounds like he’s tired of the game…can’t say I’d blame him. A long productive career and a lot of money in the bank. The man has nothing left to prove, and he probably doesn’t want unpleasant memories of his last playing days…
David Wright will never happen. End of story.
I don’t think anyone wants him right now anyways. Way too many red flags.
@4
Why would David Wright never happen? Just because he’s in the same division?
The Braves have a ton of money coming off the books after this season. The Braves that enter next spring could look greatly different. We could have no Chipper, Hudson, Bourn, Prado, Jurrjens, Hinske, Ross and whoever else. It’s really crazy to think about the sweeping changes that could be facing the Braves.
But on the other hand the Braves for the first time since the mid 90s [when they went hard after Barry Bonds and Greg Maddux and landed Maddux] could be huge players in the free agent market. It’s exciting to think about.
i don’t think the braves are big players in the free agent pool. maybe they make a run at someone, but if heyward has a decent year, you see him, freeman, and mac catch extensions that eat up a good chunk of the money coming off the books. wouldn’t be surprising to me to see hudson come back on a 2 or 3 year deal either. possibly bourn gets an extension as well.
trading for wright is dumb, he is a free agent at the end of the season. now taking chippers 7m and tne rest of lowes 10m off the books to get someone is best
With CJ in such rough shape, Simmons seeming to hold his own offensively (extremely small sample size) and Pastornicky not playing well (extremely small sample size), is there a chance that because of Simmons range that they are more likely to see how he can handle the job full time to compensate for an aging CJ since Simmons is the future anyways?
JJ could probably bring back something decent, just depends on if the Braves want to send prospects with JJ.
Hate it for Chipper. Great career, but we’ve all known this could be his last year.
please do us all a favor and leave.
It’s still just spring training but this seems like a troubled team. Counting on Chipper at 40 to be a major contributor is sort of illustrative of how the Braves go about things these days. Things have to go right for the Braves to win. This team simply does not have the resources to compensate for injuries or unexpected poor performances.
Mike Olt is blocked in Texas by Adrian Beltre, can really play third base, and will hit for power and average. He’s a year or two away from the Majors, but has a good shot to get there. I wonder what it would take to get him.
@12 Dave
Prospects, but since Wren is planning on using a 17 man rotation for the next 7 seasons it ain’t happening.
He’s got a case of the Brett Favre’s. Just like Brett thought he was retiring every year at the thought of training camp, Chipper is sucking it up during his first big spring work-outs this year. Unlike Brett, he actually made his decision in a timely manner and ATTENDED Preseason workouts. But like Brett Favre, he loves the game so much that one things ground into shape and the season starts, with the Braves playing actual baseball, he’ll feel better.
That’s just my opinion.
Since it was brought up — for Chipper to fall below a .300 average, with as many at-bats as he has, he would have to have an extremely, awfully dismal season. And as discussed, he he played that poorly, he wouldn’t continue (which I do not foresee even being an issue).
For those wondering:
- I looked at the 2009 & 2010 years and more or less rough averaged some “plausible” figures
If Chipper had 100 hits in 400 ABs (.250 avg), his career BA would still be .302.
- Let’s get crazy
If Chipper had 101 hits in 450 ABs (~.225 avg), his career BA would be .300.
Chipper’s 5 “worst” BA years consisted of .248, .264, .265 (twice), and .275. Of those, the higher 3 figures have occurred the last 3 years. Jones is a brilliant mind when it comes to hitting, and I think this should be the least of one’s concern.
PS – Even if he played through two years of .250 batting (100H/400ABs), he would still retain the .300 career lifetime average.
Trade for Bourjos to play lf with prado at 3rd, move Bourjos to cf and let Bourn walk next year like we should. This offseason buy a big thumper lfer with all the fresh cash. The angels have shown in speculation that they do not value Peter nearly anywhere close to his actual worth.
@15
Yes, I think it’s unlikely it comes into play this year. As you stated it’s pretty unlikely that he puts up a .200 BA. I think it would be more of an issue next year if he thinks about coming back.
@10
Yeah. That would really help the Braves offense. Move Prado to 3B and put a platoon of Hinske/Diaz in LF. That’s a killer offense right there! Chipper was still very productive last season and can be this year.
@15
Totally agree!
@16
I would love to have Peter Bourjos!