Why Chipper Jones Is Still An Effective Hitter
March 16, 2012 at 2:35 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
A common thread that has been spun by casual fans and even some journalists over the past couple of years is that Chipper Jones has been an albatross on the Braves, keeping the team from becoming contenders with a crushing salary, injuries and mediocre performance when he is on the field. Conveniently overlooked is that last year, in a down year for him, he was the second best hitter on the team, with a 123 OPS+, meaning he was 23% better offensively than average. The common narrative has been that he is no longer a power hitter, although he led the team in slugging percentage last year and was even second in ISO (Dan Uggla led the team in ISO).
While his injuries and salary have certainly diminished his value to the Braves, they are certainly far from meaning he is a crushing weight on the team. I won’t go into overall value in this post. Here I am going to go into what allows Chipper to still be such an effective hitter, even at his advanced age.
To understand Chipper’s plate approach, let’s first get an idea of where he likes to hit the ball. For that I’m going to use a slugging percentage heat map. (all data in the graphs will be from 2009-Present, written statistics will be the same unless mentioned as otherwise):
As we can see, he really likes the ball thigh high middle in against RHP and mostly anywhere middle in against LHP. He also has a mild hot spot on the outside, which is from him hitting the ball up the middle when pitched that way in pitchers’ counts.
Next, let’s get an overall idea of his plate discipline for all counts:
As we can see, and as should come as no surprise, Chipper has excellent discipline. Against, RHP, he lays off low and in and up and in, even in the strike zone, correctly realizing that taking a strike in those positions in most counts is favorable to the weak contact that swinging at those pitches is likely to produce.
Against LHP we see that he lays off up and away strikes a bit more, and this goes along with what we noticed in his slugging percentage map, which is that against LHP he is mostly an inside ball hitter, power wise. Again, he prefers to take these pitches for a strike as opposed to producing weak contact. These graphs align up very well with what we saw with Chipper’s strengths.
That is one of the primary signs of a truly great hitter, knowing their power areas in the strike zone and waiting for a pitcher to give him one there and laying off pitches that the hitter knows he’s likely to only produce weak contact on.
However, the true beauty in Chipper’s plate approach lies in how he approaches certain count types. In order to avoid small samples, and having a ton of graphs (because chipper is a switch hitter, it doubles the number of graphs) I’m going to lump these into three types: Selective counts (counts where the hitter can be selective), forced counts (counts where taking a called strike would either end the batter’s AB or put him at a substantial disadvantage) and neutral counts (taking a given pitch is neither a substantial advantage or disadvantage). Selective counts are 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1. Forced counts are 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2 and 2-2. Neutral counts are 2-1 and 3-2.
As we can see in the selective counts Chipper swings at fewer balls, and even lays off more strikes, swinging mostly at pitches in his wheel house. Chipper focuses on middle of the plate against RHP and inside pitches against LHP, again matching his slugging percentage strong areas. In these counts a hitter should not swing unless it is a pitch he knows that he can drive. The effect is even more pronounced when you limit the pitch type to fastballs, however the graphs are not different enough to add here.
In selective counts, Chipper has hit for an astounding .347 BA, .599 slug pct and a .454 wOBA. Keep in mind those numbers are since 2009, those aren’t “prime years Chipper”.
Next, let’s look at the neutral counts v. RHP (I’m not including lefties here because the sample size was too small to lead to an accurate graph):
We can see here that the biggest difference is that he now swings at most pitches in the strike zone and pitches “on the black” or just off the plate outside. Pitches just off the plate outside are called strikes around 60-75% of the time by umpires, and these pitches are too often called strikes in this type of count to take. In a neutral count, you don’t want to swing at bad pitches, but you also don’t want to take a strike you can make contact with, as you are then either struck out (in a 3-2 count) or in a substantially disadvantageous count (2-2). In these counts Chipper slugged .407, with a .247 BA, and a .380 wOBA.
In neutral counts most of Chipper’s value comes not from hitting the ball hard, but fighting off pitchers’ pitches and eventually working walks. These counts are perhaps where the difference between current Chipper and prime years Chipper was at its greatest. Prime years Chipper was able to still be patient, but yet drive the ball in these counts, whereas current Chipper has become a little more defensive out of necessity, as it becomes harder for him to drive pitches he isn’t explicitly waiting for.
Finally, let’s look at Chipper in ‘forced counts’, counts where the pitcher is able to dictate the at bat:
At first, this might seem a little funny. It looks for all the world like Chipper is swinging at fewer pitches in these ‘forced counts’ than he is in the neutral counts above. And this is where how truly amazing Chipper’s plate approach is fully shows. Chipper knows, either instinctually or intellectually, that umpires are less likely to call a strike to him with two strikes. This is for two reasons: 1) Umpires call fewer strikes with two strike counts, as has been documented in the book Scorecasting and 2) This effect is even further exacerbated when the hitter has a reputation for having a good hitting eye. I gave my own reasons for why I think this effect holds up in a blog post last year, found here.
In many cases, it seems like umpires trust Chipper’s hitting eye more than they trust their own. And Chipper leverages these facts to his advantage.
This effect is dramatic when you compare heat maps of the percentage of taken pitches that are called strikes for Chipper in these types of counts to the league average.
The difference is large when you focus around the periphery. Chipper’s reputation essentially means he is able to subtract a few inches off the effective strike zone. This allows him to actually be more selective in these counts, and thus then work his way back into neutral or selective counts, where he is a much better hitter or can walk. In Scorecasting, the authors suggested it might be a good idea if hitters were more selective in these counts, given that umpires are less likely to call a borderline strike, yet it seems that very few hitters take this approach. Chipper does.
Summary:
Chipper Jones is able to still be a productive offensive player mostly through having perhaps the best plate approach in the game. In counts that allow him to be selective he is able to leverage his strengths and produce outstanding numbers. While his bat is no longer able to be effective in neutral counts or counts that are in the pitcher’s favor, Chipper is able to use his approach to get himself back into counts that work in his favor, or work a walk.
With an approach like Chipper’s I imagine he could be a productive bat for several more years if he was able to DH, however I don’t see that happening as I can’t imagine him leaving the Braves prior to retirement. And while Chipper may no longer have the speed or the pure power he had several years ago, his approach remains a thing of beauty. It’s also why if there’s any way possible, I would absolutely lock Chipper down as a hitting coach as soon as the man retires. I don’t care who we have at the time, Chipper has the job as soon as he wants it.
Next time Chipper strides to the plate, focus on the approach he takes to getting the pitches he wants and the way he works the umpire. It’s a pure thing of beauty.
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I have always maintained that Chipper Jones is the smartest hitter I’ve ever seen. Watching Chipper hit is a great learning experience for both hitters and pitchers. He is to hitters what Greg Maddux was to pitchers.
That being said I never realized until these last few years [when Jon Schiambi pointed it out a few years back] how much Chipper swings at the first pitch and ever seen then I’ve paid close attention to it. It’s kinda weird that Chipper has swings at the first pitch as much as he does and still walk as much as he does while never striking out as many as 100 times in a season and having more walks than strikeouts in his career.
@1
Yeah, The key is he looks for pitches he feels he can drive. Taking a hittable pitch for a strike is stupid. It gets you into counts where the pitcher can dictate the flow of the at bat. As I detailed with Martin Prado here, giving the pitcher a free strike really hurts your overall value as a hitter.
I love Chipper since I can remember but I think the Braves need to think bout the future and without him and doing it this year. I mean there are alot of teams that would love his presence in the clubhouse and in the field or as a DH but I think its time to cut the cord. I mean you got two of the youngest SS prospects so when it comes down to it I think maybe one of them should be groomed to take over at 3rd like the Braves should have done with Escobar but thats another story.
@2
Yes I agree that giving the pitcher a free strike does hurt your value as a hitter. But I believe there has to be a happy medium too. I remember when all the fuss was about Jeff Francouer swinging at the first pitch too much but I didn’t see the big deal because his production swinging at the first pitch far out weighs any negative. But that’s not to say I totally disagree with Prado’s approach in certain situations. I mean if the pitcher has been really wild it wouldn’t make much sense to go up and swing at the first pitch unless it is right in your wheelhouse. Otherwise take the pitch even if it’s a strike and let the pitcher get himself into trouble.
@4
The problem with Prado is that he almost NEVER swings at the first pitch, regardless of its location.
With Francouer, the issue wasn’t so much the counts he swung at pitches in, it was the pitches he swung at. Francouer was successful when he made contact on the first pitch, but his issue was the number of swings and misses he had on first pitches on balls out of the strike zone.
The issue isn’t if you should or shouldn’t swing at certain pitches in a given count, it’s WHICH pitches you should or shouldn’t swing at in a given count.
Awesome analysis. I’ve known just from watching him for years that he’s one of the smartest hitters in the game, but this article really proves the point. Well done.
So how did that method work so well for Wade Boggs? Was it the beer and fried chicken?
This is really great analysis. I’ve really appreciated all of the recent work like this on pitchers and hitters.
Looking at the analysis, if I were an opposing pitcher, I think I would be inclined to throw Chipper a curve or a slider or something with a big break on it inside if I had an advantage in the count.
The increased swing % around the zone makes sense, but the stuff that looks like it is almost in the dirt is a little surprising for someone that otherwise has an almost impeccable approach.
It looks like that is his biggest weakness by looking at the Forced Count Swing Rate Chart. That seems like the intuitive pitch to throw in that type of situation, but I wonder if opposing pitchers have picked up on that at all.
@8
The problem is that either the pitcher would have to execute a perfect pitch, risk hanging one, or likely have the ump just call it a ball, even if it caught the zone.
The effective strike zone for chipper when Chipper is at a disadvantage is already small, and it’s even smaller when it’s a breaking ball.
i remember chipper when he was winning the batting title and hitting around .375 he was talking about how he remembers the way pitchers pitched to him 5 years ago in a ST game and hasn’t seen them since. its really cool how braves fans have been treated to two of the most cerebral baseball players ever
Thanks for this piece. Great stuff.
The respect Chipper gets from umpires appears to make it difficult to get called strikes against him up in the zone or on the outside corner when he’s hitting right-handed but not outside when he’s hitting lefty. I wonder why that is.
Who could be a better hitting coach than a patient and intelligent switch hitter?
@11
For whatever reason, it seems like umpires call more strikes on the outside to left handed hitters across all hitters, not just Chipper. It’s a trend I’ve definitely noticed across a lot of good hitters through the whole league.
Perhaps has to do with how umpires generally set up over the catcher’s right shoulder?
Great article, and no question Chipper is (still) a great hitter. And now he should be a DH somewhere.
The problem with Chipper and the Braves is that in the 3 hole you need 30-plus homers, 100-plus RBI, and you need consistency. Chip is no longer a 30/100 guy because he is older, misses so many games or plays hurt where he is much less effective. (If we’re lucky, he will play 120 games, and of those, he’ll play way less than 100% healthy in 40.) Because of these factors, the lineup loses consistency in the 3-hole, where your best hitter is supposed to live.
In effect, you need two third basemen to fill one spot, and your older 3d bagger has one of your highest salaries, making this impossible. That is why Chipper, arguably, is a problem for the Braves despite his continued excellence at the plate. The Braves should have a great 3d bagger ready to go, either from draft or trade, but they don’t and that is also an issue as to why he is still playing. The Braves have not planned well for this transition.
As a DH on a big salary team, he could play 80 games and do a great job. On our limited salary club, he takes up a lot of room.
@13
I don’t think the club planned poorly, they’re just not particularly good at developing position players. Prado is a perfectly fine replacement for Chipper at 3rd, meaning we could replace Chipper with either a LF or a 3rd baseman. And because basically every short stop could play 3rd and every CF could play LF, that’s at least 4 positions we could use to replace him.
Unfortunately the Braves already need a replacement at 3rd, SS and CF and they only have really one legitimate prospect who plays any of those positions (Simmons) and none of their prospects that play any of those positions are all that likely to be able to hit MLB pitching at anything above replacement level.
I had a lot of hope for Salcedo at one point, but while he may still pan out, at this point it’s more likely that he never makes the majors than him ever hitting 15 HR in the majors.
Chipper Jones may be over payed at this point, but if he is, its still very mild. He’s still a 2 win player and that’s worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 – 12 mill.
As far as the whole Chipper hitting third, and “you need x homers and x RBIs” from that ‘hole’ thing goes, even putting the validity of that assertion aside for the moment (and I think it’s questionable at best) Chipper has indicated he’s perfectly fine not hitting 3rd. Can we blame Chipper for decisions Fredi makes?
If Chipper had Stanton or Harper-type, 80-grade power, he’d have been be Babe Ruth. Instead he’s just your run-of-the-mill outstanding Hall of Famer, not all that far behind Ruth, Wagner, Williams and others in that class.
(That’s sort of sarcastic and meant as a shot against those reading this who nitpick about Chipper’s production over the course of his career. Most of those type of Braves fans probably don’t read this blog anyway, at least not the comments section.)
According to FanGraphs, over the last three seasons Chipper is around a 9-12-million-dollar player.
Unless he misses half the season or more, I don’t expect he’ll be under $8M.