The Chipper Jones Effect
March 22, 2012 at 3:21 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Although some may call it a debate, Chipper Jones is a Hall of Famer. There is no debating this.
The most popular stat thrown out into the Internet world this morning following Chipper’s retirement announcement is he is the only switch hitter in history to produce a .300 average and 300+ home runs. Barring a complete meltdown over his entire final season, Chipper will finish with a career batting average over .300. He currently sits at .304. He has 454 home runs, third all-time among switch hitters behind Mickey Mantle (536) and Eddie Murray (504), and 33rd overall.
Chipper’s career fWAR of 87.5 is 34th all-time. Among switch hitters, that mark is good for third all-time behind Mantle (123.1) and Pete Rose (91.5). Among third basemen all-time? Seventh.
Chipper’s .399 career wOBA ranks eighth all-time among third basemen, while his 143 wRC+ ties for seventh with another former Brave great, Eddie Mathews, and Bill Joyce. Among those seven with a higher wOBA, only Alex Rodriguez has more plate appearances and a higher fWAR.
Chipper has always been known to have one of the best eyes in the game. His 14.3 BB% ties for 12th all-time among third basemen, while holding the best mark among active third basemen and eighth among active players overall. If you look at O-Swing%, which measures the percentage a player swings at pitches out of the strike zone, Chipper is next-to-last among active players at 15.4%, behind only Bobby Abreu’s 15%. This while producing a Z-Swing% of 71.6%, which is light years ahead of those surrounding him on the O-Swing% list. This means while Chipper recognizes pitches out of the zone better than almost everyone in baseball, he also picks up the correct pitches to hit and isn’t afraid to swing. This leads to 454 home runs and 526 doubles.
Basically, if you look up nearly every category for third basemen in the history of baseball, you will find Chipper Jones in the top 10, or even top 5. If you want to count awards, because people count such things in Hall of Fame discussions, he was an MVP, he finished within the top 10 in MVP voting six times, he was a seven-time All-Star, and he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting to a 26-year-old Hideo Nomo.
While Chipper has been a member of the Braves, the team’s overall record has been 1,568-1,166. I realize he’s only one player and it took more than just him to produce that record, but he was the best player on the team during that stretch. People talk about the big three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz running the Braves during their stretch of success, but as far as I’m concerned, it was Chipper’s team, and it always has been.
Highest BAA (min. 50 PA): Shane Reynolds – .405
Most HR against: Reynolds/Steve Trachsel – 7
Most hits against: Livan Hernandez – 27
vs. Phillies: 1.042 OPS, 46 HR
vs. Mets: .973 OPS, 48 HR
vs. Nationals: .912 OPS, 40 HR
vs. Marlins: .901 OPS, 40 HR
BA vs. RHP: .304
BA vs. LHP: .304
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So who is the heir to 3rd base next year?
@1
I don’t think we have a legitimate internal candidate at this point. We will look at available 3B, 2B and LF candidates in FA/trade market, I believe.
3B would be obvious
2B would mean Prado to third, Uggla to LF (where his defense would be less damaging)
LF would just mean Prado to third.
David Wright and Kevin Youkilis have options for 2013. Outside of those two there isn’t many quality options at 3B. If I had to guess, they trade for a LF after the season and move Prado to 3B. Also, if Terdoslavich just has a monster year and gets promoted to AAA at some point in the season, I think he could be a candidate for 3B next year. At this point it’s a long shot though.
.304 against LHP and RHP? Incredible. That has to be one of the most amazing stats I’ve ever seen.
@4 I agree.
@4,5
There’s another great player with a stat like that (not necessarily a switch-hitter). I was thinking it was Musial, but I just checked his BBR page, and I guess I was wrong. Someone had either the same average or the same number of hits against both lefties and righties. Interesting.
THE most amazing Chipper Jones stat is that starting in about Little League, his teams finished first in their league (Little, Southern Assoc, whatever), region (in high school), or division (Nl East) for approximately 22 times in a row. It would have been the absolutely most amazing stat in Cooperstown if the string hadn’t snapped.
I think there is little debate that Prado will be playing 3B next year. Expect another typical underwhelming solution in LF next season.
DL,
I adamantly agree that Chipper’s a first ballot guy, but where are the articles from those that disagree? I’d heard rumblings about that a few years ago after his initial decline (2009), but I haven’t come across anyone that doesn’t think he’s at least a HOFer. Who’s stated recently (within the past year) that he isn’t?
@8
I disagree. With the amount of money Frank Wren is going to have to work with I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Braves land a big time player or 2.
@9
I didn’t necessarily mean people are disagreeing, but I’ve seen a tweet or two trying to initiate a debate. Whether that means they disagree or just trying to get somebody to talk to them, I don’t know.
Any chance Chipper replaces Fredi next year?
@12
In a million years, I would never have thought of that. But somehow I can’t stop thinking what it would be like. I can’t decide if you’re an idiot or a genius.
Is Chippers career BA really .304 against both righties and lefties?
I can’t find the career splits right now, but according to Fangraphs, Chippers BA since 2002 is .305 against RHP (3257 ABs), and .268 against LHP (1303 ABs).
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=97&position=3B&season=0
Doesn anyone have a link to his career splits?
Regardless of the eventual outcome, I think Prado deserves some consistency in his PT. Plant the guy in LF or 3B but leave him there. Once done, then look around for the permanent player to play the open position.
@14
Yep. B-Ref has it: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jonesch06&year=Career&t=b
Chipper Jones is CLEARLY a top 5 third basemen of all time.
1-Mike Schimdt
2-Eddie Mathews
3-George Brett
4-Chipper Jones
5-Wade Boggs
With respect to Santo, Rolen, and Robinson, they do not come close to these five greats.
@15
deserves got nothing to do with it as Peter always said. Prado should play where Prado’s needed to play and for whatever’s best for the team.
There is absolutely 0 evidence that shifting players around from position to position impacts that player’s offense. That’s a myth created by players who don’t want to move and the lazy journalists and broadcasters who create storylines.
There was some talk a few years ago about Chipper being a “marginal” Hall of Fame candidate. But I think his batting title in 2008 and the end of the supercharged offense era-which most relate to steroids-has made people appreciate Chipper more. He isn’t going to get to 500 home runs and I think people were looking at that and sort of doubting his numbers. Wonder what kind of numbers he would have put up if he had played his entire career at the old stadium.
#16…Oh you mean like when Chipper came in from LF to permanently claim 3B as his preferred position several seasons ago?
“deserves got nothing to do with it as Peter always said”
Also, as Snoop would say.
/best show ever
Yeah, Chipper Jones’ best trait was always the remarkable batting eye. He has really good vision-I remember reading a Sporting News article a few years ago that mentioned he’d be sitting all the way across the clubhouse from the tv and could still read the bottom scroll on ESPN.
Combine a great hitter’s eye and quick hands, and he never guessed. He’s never guessing strike or ball, or fastball, or slider. He picks the ball up very quickly, and he has the handspeed to wait those extra 5 hundredths of a second to assess where the ball is going, and he swings at pitches he can hit. When he’s really on his game, he’s fouling off pitches low and away that he wouldn’t be able to do anything with, waiting on the pitcher to make a mistake, and frustrating pitchers to no end. The man has very, very few peers as a hitter
@16
Thank you, Franklin. Much appreciated!
There are no big time corner OFers than will be FA’s in 2013. Thats why the Braves have been linked to Swisher, he is the best available corner OF on the market for 2013.
I could see Prado going to 3rd and Braves signing Swisher. They’ll need a CF as well because Bourne is gone (Boras client). There will be some available CFers like Upton and Victorino.
Chipper is a HOFer and one the greatest Braves as all-time. Good decision on his part and a great career. I hope he stays healthy and has a solid final season.
First let me say that Chipper’s metrics are hall of fame caliber in all ways and he will be in the hall as great player based those metrics alone; not as one of the best switch hitters of all time.
Switch hitting, as I see it, is something you do to give yourself an advantage. Yes you have to be awesome in order to do it effectively, but it is something that in it of itself provides the player with greater value creating situations than counter parts.
My point is that switch hitting should not be looked at as a category alone. Like the players that are switch hitters are in some other league where they chose to make it harder on themselves by learning how to hit from both sides of the plate. Rather, they chose to hit from both sides of the plate to take advantage of a situation, verified by statistics, regarding a greater success factor for hitters facing opposite hand pitching.
All this is to say that I bet all of those great “switch hitters” would not have been as great if they did not adapt their games to being able to hit from both sides. So, I think that comparing them in their own categories as if it was something harder than what other guys do in the big leagues is lazy and basically makes no sense.
I mean let’s face it; I am the best 5’7″ Miami born Braves fan that has lived in Atlanta for 28 years and is married to a Native American switch hitting baseball player of all time. Love me some caveats.
Basically, Chipper is great because of what he did regardless of how he did it.
The Wire? Isn’t that Will Munny’s quote from Unforgiven?
@20
Chipper never claimed anything as his position. He was drafted as a SS. Played SS in the minors. Was playing LF in spring training 1994 when he blew out his knee. He was slated to be the Braves starting LF. Came back from the knee injury and moved to 3B. But actually began the 1995 season playing LF because of an injury to Ryan Klesko. When Jeff Blauser got hurt in 1996 Chipper moved from 3B back to SS. Chipper was back at 3B in 1997 and played there till 2001 when he moved to LF. Played LF till be moved back to 3B after he started have major leg injuries. Chipper is the ultimate team player playing where ever the team has needed him to play. He’s never claimed any position as his.
@26
The quote originated in Unforgiven, but Snoop used it in The Wire. It makes me feel cooler to credit Snoop
Not only did Chipper win the batting title in ’08, but he finished SECOND the year before that to a Rockies’ OF who now plays for the Cards. Holliday I believe. Sorry, senior moment. By 2 percentage points I think.
After he hung up the spikes and looked at his career stats, the great Mickey Mantle said it made him sick when he looked at his career BA of .298. He said that he felt to himself that he was a .300 hitter. I can see how he would feel that way because he was a .300 hitter for most years of his career. Those 2 little percentage points made such a difference to the great #7.
YESSSSS! I was right. Chipper finished second to Matt Holliday in 2007. Holliday hit .340 and Chipper hit .337.
The next year Chipper hit .364 and Albert Pujols was second at .357. Back to back years of second and first in BA, AT THE AGES OF 35 AND 36 NO LESS. What a player!
I know everyone has Chipper’s career numbers to back up the “first ballot Hall of Fame” talk, but I feel like half of the eventual inductees have the same retirement-announcement-first-ballot commentary.
I have no doubt that Chipper will get into the Hall, but there are plenty of great players that needed a couple of extra rounds of voting before they entered. You think Carlton Fisk is a surefire, first ballot nominee as one of the all-time great catchers? Nope. He needed three ballots. What about Ryne Sandberg, who put up the best offensive numbers for any second baseman ever? Nope, he didn’t go in on his first try either. Niekro needed five ballots and ranked 14th all time in wins.
If they held the election right after the retirement story came out, I’d say that he’d get the votes, but bc we wait 5 years, have the ballot full of other greats and recent retirements, I’m going to peg Chipper’s election to the third ballot.