Braves Sign Chad Durbin
April 3, 2012 at 4:31 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
According to DOB, the Braves signed Chad Durbin to a Major League deal.
Ben’s Take: He had a 4.85 FIP last year over 68.1 innings, all out of the bullpen. I do not understand this move at all. Maybe I will later on.
There must have been some type of issue the Braves had with Jairo Asencio. Durbin has been signed to a middle relief role, and DOB has Wren’s quotes about the deal in his latest post. I would take Asencio on the roster over Durbin 10 times out of 10, and if the Braves ended up having to cut Asencio then finding a player of Durbin’s quality would not be difficult.
Durbin has thrown 206.2 innings in the past three years and has been worth -0.5 fWAR during that time. I just really do not get it. Hopefully he pitches in next to no meaningful innings, but with Livan Hernandez on the roster he will likely be forced to occasionally.
Franklin’s take: A lot of stats have been thrown out on Durbin on Twitter (not by Ben) that are wildly misleading. Durbin was a very crappy starter from 1999 to 2007, which skews a lot of his stats. I think all of those numbers are entirely irrelevant. The only meaningful information we really have on Durbin is from 2008-2011, when he became a relief pitcher.
So what does that information tell us? Well, essentially he’s had one excellent season (2008), one good season (2010), and two bad seasons (2009 and 2011). Sounds kind of like the mediocre reliever version of Dan Uggla, huh? In any case, I think a few things help Durbin fit with the Braves, First I think him being right handed, as opposed to Flande who was a LHP, is a positive. Durbin doesn’t have big splits against RHP and LHP, but he will assumedly be better against RHP than the lefty Flande. I’d rather my last guy out of the pen be a RHP, all else equal. Secondly, I think the league change and going to more of a pitcher’s park will benefit Durbin. His big problem last year was a 13% HR/FB rate, which will likely come down being in the NL in a more pitcher friendly park. Third, being a flyball pitcher (40% GB rate), I think he matches up well with the way the Braves defense is currently, which is terrible in the infield and amazing in the outfield.
What do I expect out of him? Probably something like his 2010 season, when he put up a 3.80 ERA, 3.97 FIP and was worth 0.3 fWAR.
The other issue is why not Jairo Asencio? I can only speculate that had something to do with off the field issues as David O’Brien recently hinted at. If there were no off the field issues, other than the name thing with Asencio it simply doesn’t make sense to me at all. But regardless, at the time we made the decision to pick up Durbin, Asencio was gone already, so this move should only be evaluated on whether or not Durbin is a better fit on the team than Flande, which I believe he is.
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“veteran presence”… duhhhh
Veteran presents are the gift that keeps on giving. I dont get this either though.
makes no sense… another Linestink
not saying I love the move, but he had a 4.26 xFIP and an abnormally high for him hr/fb% of 13% (his normal career rate the last few years has been around 9%). I’d say he’s one of the few cases where his xFIP is probably a better indicator, which was 4.26 last year.
I’d say it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect something like his 2010, where he put up a 3.80 ERA, 3.97 FIP. His underlying peripherals, other than HR/FB haven’t really changed in the last few years.
They must’ve liked what they saw when he was with the Phillies. Two of those seasons were pretty good. He shouldn’t have cost as much as Linebrink did, and hopefully the Braves will be willing to send him packing. I’m hoping Wren got him on the cheap and saw it as a low risk move to add more depth in the ‘pen.
Will be willing to send him packing if he doesn’t perform, that is.
Really weird. Going into spring training, the Braves bullpen seemed perfect, like best-in-baseball kind of perfect.
Since, the worst has obviously been losing Arodys Vizcaino for the year. But seeing some other dudes get hurt (Fish) and some pretty much suck (Gearrin) … coupled with this Durbin signing … just kind of makes that lofty status harder to acheive. Even if he’s barely used.
How would you rank (approx) the Braves pen now? I’d assume it’s still top 5ish.
@7
still top 5.
Losing Viz was a large, though not totally unexpected blow (just wish he hadn’t been in MLB camp at the time and thus lose a year of service time). The rest of the moves/injuries/suckiness wouldn’t really make the bullpen better or worse.
I could understand the Livan move just as more insurance and what not plus he is a guy that know the division pretty well. He has been around the block a few times.
As far as Durbin. I laughed when I found that out. I do not understand the move at all either. As you said Ascencio could have done the same. But what about Flande too. I felt he could have done the same and was really promising in ST.
Right now I can only laugh about the Morris Claiborne news about his Wonderlic scores and this Durbin deal.
I would have been fine with a loogy or even Gearrin in the role, personally. We’ll see how it goes. Relievers are volatile. He could end up with a great year while Jonny Venters ends up with a poor year. You never know, but I just don’t think they are playing their odds right with this move.
Combined with the Yunel ordeal, is this becoming a pattern?
I still think with Viz out along with Fish and signing of Livan and Durbin I think it adds more depth to the bullpen. But my thing is with the trade for Francisco how come maybe thinking bout getting rid or Diaz and keep Sutton on the roster?
Don’t understand these moves. Fransisco is a third baseman, but he’s LEFT-HANDED. WTF… FW needs to find a quality RIGHT-HANDED hitter..
@13
Have you seen any team that picked up a great RH bat that can play third and/or LF in the last couple of weeks?
I dont’t get it. Livan and Francisco I can understand. This Durbin guy looks like another Proctor-like “veteran.” I would have thought Livan would have filled that role. Would have rather had Asencio or Flande. Sometimes I think you need to just see if they sink or swim, not wait until they “run out of options.” The Constanza thing was BS even if it is only a couple weeks. I would have taken Sutton/Parraz/Durango any day over Constanza/Diaz. I guess business always trumps winning.
Oh also it is going to be hilarious and embarrassing if the Futures win tonight.
This just doesn’t seem sound. Where will this leave the Braves if Gearrin or Flande look stellar at Gwinnett, or if Moylan comes around earlier than expected?
Business trumps winning? Don’t really get that. Winning more usually means better business, pretty sure the Braves know that.
Obviously Diaz and Constanza (who might not even be on the major league roster in a couple weeks) suck. But its not like they’re worth 2 less wins than Sutton/Parraz/Durango.
3.72, 3.53 SIERA the last two seasons. So thats something i guess.
The first 5 guys out of the pen are as good as any in the bigs. Livan wasn’t a bad signing and could possibly be a quality 5th-6th inning guy. I just feel like the 7th spot could have been filled internally without spending 900K on a washed-up scrub.
Guys like Asencio and Hoover that were traded could have filled the role. Guys like Flande and Gearrin that just missed the cut could have filled the role. Guys like Carlyle and Redmond that are AAA starters could have filled the role. Guys like Moylan and Varvaro that will be healthy later in the season could have filled the role.
No I would have gone after Bill Hall and Justin Maxwell a shot along with Sutton and Durango