Jason Heyward’s Hot Start
April 17, 2012 at 9:31 am by Ben Duronio under Player Analysis
Right now, Jason Heyward is hitting .375/.444/.656 with a 222 wRC+ and has been worth 0.8 fWAR over 10 games. Obviously those numbers will drop, but this has been exactly the type of start we wanted to see out of Heyward.
His .435 BABIP is fueling this hot start, which is obviously unsustainable. But, what has been really great to see so far are his batted ball rates.
I looked quickly at Heyward’s ground ball issues over the past two years in January. Right now, Heyward has hit 20% line drives, 32% ground balls and 48% fly balls. For his career, he has hit 16% line drives, 54% ground balls, and 30% fly balls. This is a change for the better, and maybe his altered swing will lead to the grounders becoming less frequent.
We will have to see if he sustains these rates over the course of the year, but right now this is the best thing I see when I look at his stats page. The production has been great, but the higher line drive and fly ball rate are even better to see.
Loading ...
“The production has been great, but the higher line drive and fly ball rate are even better to see.”
Gotta be honest … if you were to ask me if I’d rather see production or a higher fly ball rate, I think I’d choose the former. My SABR-ness is still a work in progress, I suppose.
well, that’s obviously true over large sample sizes, however, over smaller sample sizes, if you’re wanting to predict future performance, you take process over results.
That is, a lot of his production may just be luck, but the lower ground ball rates indicate at least some of Heyward’s production is from real improvements, not just babip luck. If the process is good, results will be there in a full season. Jason Heyward’s process is a lot better, so as long as that stays the same, the results are going to be a lot better.
The production is obviously important, but the batted ball rate change provides reason to believe the swing has improved.
I.E. if he was hitting .200/.280/.350 I could still find positives if his batted ball rates were how they currently are in combination with a lower BABIP. His ground ball tendencies over his career have been atrocious, so him getting away from that over the first 10 games has been good to see.
Ha, no no, I get what you’re saying. Bad interneting on my part. From your vantage point, I guess it’s hard to see the tongue in my cheek.
The good thing about seeing this data is that it comes with being able to watch and see at the plate. He is more patient, seems to be aware of his cold zone – down, hard and in, and seems to have rid himself of the slight hitch in his swing. Coupled with your data here, I would say the changes look to be paying off.
Could it be time to move Heyward up in the lineup? I think so. I think that Heyward should be right in the middle of the lineup, not hitting 7th. Just my opinion.
If they are going to bat someone that isn’t McCann or Chipper third, then yes it is time to move him up. He should be batting ahead of Freeman right now. It depends on the others in the order, but Heyward moving to third or fifth would be wise.
If Heyward continues to produce like an elite player even after the BABIP comes down, do you think he should eventually move back to hitting second? I know that the Bobby Cox’s decision to position him there won a lot of praise, but I’m wondering if the logic of putting your best hitter second would be outweighed by the L-R imbalance that it would create and the tendency of Fredi to have the number two hitter bunt Bourn over whenever he is on base.
I really don’t like Bourn and Heyward back-to-back at the top of the lineup. I also like Prado batting behind Bourn, as he will likely lead the team in singles if healthy and Bourn should be on second base more than any player. Pretty much wherever Bourn hits, Prado should bat after. And they aren’t going to move Bourn.
Only thing that worries me about moving him up right now is how that move will effect his approach to hitting. Yes it would obviously be a confidence boost, but would it also be a pressure cooker?
Sure the guy is a professional and has batted in higher positions before. But, he is also still very young and coming off an entire year in which he was constantly criticized. If he’s not ready for the increased pressure of batting in the “heart” then it may alter his entire approach.
I’m not saying don’t move him as he certainly does deserve to be in the 3-5 hole. I’m just concerned about moving him back too early.
Also, beyond the excellent results in an extremely small sample size, is there any good reason for optimism that Heyward will show less pronounced splits going forward? I can’t find any information about his splits in the minors and it looks like he was adequate but certainly not great against LH pitchers in 2010
I doubt the splits get closer together, but he could hit lefties better than he has. He will probably always struggle with late-inning lefties, they are tough guys for most lefties to handle.
This is what I think the lineup should be:
1. Bourn
2. Prado
3. Heyward
4. Jones
5. McCann
6. Uggla
7. Freeman
8. Pastornicky
I think Heyward in front of Chipper makes the most sense. I also think that Freeman needs to get his confidence back, so I would move him to 7.
Looks good to me.
That’s what we have today actually.
Oh, except for Fredi decided to put Diaz in for Prado…. SMH
#Fredi’d
Fredi still won’t compliment Heyward in his post-game comments. Does Heyward have to hit 4 home runs in 1 game to impress Fredi?
I have noticed that too Fredi will never compliment Heyward in the post game interview it is very strange. I’m starting to think he doesn’t like Heyward for some reason.