Jair Jurrjens’s Rough Start
April 19, 2012 at 8:57 am by Ben Duronio under Player Analysis
In three starts Jair Jurrjens has a 8.10 ERA, 8.62 FIP, and a 0.89 K/BB rate. There are obviously issues with Jair right now, some of it being command and some if it being the actual stuff he has been throwing. He has not been able to locate pitches with any type of consistency, and his velocity is down across the board — even further down than it was last year.
His four-seam velocity over his five years in Atlanta: 91.8, 91.2, 91.3, 89.1, 88.3. His slider has seen a similar drop. While not all drops in velocity are huge negatives, there is a threshold where it makes a pitcher significantly less effective. The sacrifice Jurrjens made last year in his velocity improved his command, but this year he has struggled to throw strikes and command the ball with in the zone.
His home run per fly ball rate won’t be above 20 the whole season and his BABIP probably won’t be above .350, but there is reason to believe that he will not be nearly as effective as he was in his first four seasons in Atlanta. Maybe there is some mechanical issue he and Roger McDowell can work on and fix, but the days of a 3.48 ERA seem to be numbered, from what I can tell.
There is no sense in rehashing whether the Braves should have traded him last summer or this past winter. He is with the Braves now and he has been the biggest concern thus far. He currently has the lowest fWAR of any pitcher in baseball at -0.5. He has been significantly below replacement level so far, and that is true even when his home run rate is regressed as his xFIP is 6.05. If his ERA was through the roof and his peripherals suggested a regression to the mean, I would be less concerned.
I am not surprised with the performance, and I do not see it as injury related. Maybe it is, but there is nothing pointing to that. Losses in velocity come for many reasons, and trying to pinpoint that with the amount of information that any of us have is a silly attempt at guessing. There has been a consistent trend of downard velocity along with downward strikeout rates. He is a contact pitcher, but no contact pitcher will succeed with a strikeout rate under 12 with a walk rate above it.
Loading ...
At this point, Jair is the worst starting pitcher on our staff. I hate that if Delgado out pitches him this month that he will still get sent to AAA when Hudson comes back. Maybe the Braves need to let Jair go down to AAA to figure some things out and gain some confidence and let Delgado keep the 5th starter role for the time being as he seems to be the better option right now anyway.
If JJ’s struggles continue by Hudson’s return, and Delgado continues to have quality starts, could we see JJ shipped back to Gwinnett instead of Delgado?
Great analysis and right on par with what a lot of us are thinking. I really can’t imagine this being injury related as there has been absolutely no reports of that thus far. Last year, we saw the noticeable decrease in velocity but also a noticeable increase in movement. We’re just not seeing that same tilt to his pitches this year and the command is off. Couple that with a lower velocity and he’s going to get hammered.
I wonder if it would be beneficial at all to send him down to Gwinett for a couple of starts to work on mechanics and confidence?
I really doubt that the Front Office would seriously consider demoting him to AAA even if he did have options, but I do wonder what the alternatives are at this point. If everyone remains healthy for the next two weeks and Delgado and Jurrjens remain consistent, will the team really still demote Delgado when Hudson returns? I would think that they will, but it has to obvious (even to Fredi) that Delgado looks like a much better pitcher right now.
At this point, is Jurrjens pitching his way into becoming a non-tender candidate? It’s an awfully big fall from (ridiculous) comparisons to Greinke to non-tender territory, but if the arbitration process is going to reward past performances it doesn’t seem like it makes sense for any team to seriously consider trading for him this year.
Is Kawakami the only real Braves starter in recent years to actually pitch his way out of the rotation in-season?
He most definitely is a non-tender candidate if he continues to pitch poorly.
Dump Durbin, add Hudson to the rotation, and move JJ to the pen.
I like your thinking.
These next 2 starts for Delgado are huge. He could force the Braves’ hand. I doubt JJ gets sent down, but I could see him moving to the ‘pen if Delgado keeps this up.
From what I’ve read and surmized, Jurrjens isn’t able to drive off his leg with the same power as before. Remember what Chipper said about how your legs are the basis for everything.
My guess is they’d stash Jurrjens on the DL, and then schedule a rehab start, to give themselves more time for a decision.
And that makes the most sense. A decision to send JJ down and keep Delgado smacks of panic, and the Braves are nothing if not patient. Sometimes to a fault. No, I think they’ll use the DL, keep Delgado up and see if they can’t find a way to strengthen his performance via rehab, braces, changes in delivery or whatever.
You can’t just “stash someone on the DL.” There has to be a legitamate injury
Tendonitis, bursitis, weak knee syndrome?
They get around this issue often. Usually there’s something aching on a player enough for them to get put on the DL. We call it the “Mystery DL”
Phil Hughes “dead arm”
Jurrjens appears to have a “dead leg” right now
Yeah we all saw how well the Braves’ patience worked out for us last year with Derek Lowe…
Still think it’s too early to panic on Jurrjens.
I think there is some injury relation. Granted, it may not be a new injury, but he has reworked his mechanics a bit from what I’ve read to account for his knee troubles. No telling other issues this would cause if he’s favoring his knee (reduced velocity, location issues, etc). If he can’t push off properly, everything is going to be off and he’s not going to be very good. Therefore, maybe there is an “injury” there and they can DL him.
Seriously though everyone, just because he is pitching bad it *does not* mean he is injured.
I second this notion. As I already stated, there has been absolutely no reports about an injury thus far. It’s not that he has had a solid career as a #1 or #2 and he’s suddenly pitching bad. I could see pointing a finger to injury in that situation.
He’s had two decent years and 1 very solid first half. All of the projections for his career have him in the higher 3s and even 4s for ERA. He’s just living up to ability now.
I’m hoping that by 2014, we see a rotation of Hanson-Delgado-Teheran-Minor-Beachy with Gilmartin and whatever other SPs in the minors to serve as injury replacements.
Would we consider trading JJ mid-season at all?
I think they’d consider doing it now if they thought they’d get value. They were hoping he’d pitch well now and they could do it this midseason, from what I understood over the offseason on why he was kept.
I also agree that Jurrjens will likely not be sent to AAA (though he does appear to have options left). While obviously control is the biggest issue now, I think another big factor in his diminishing effectiveness is the decreasing velocity separation between his fastball and changeup.
Per Fangraphs (fastball-changeup, FIP, fWAR):
2012 – 6.1 MPH, 8.62, -0.5
2011 – 5.7 MPH, 3.99, 1.5
2010 – 7.7 MPH, 4.19, 1.2
2009 – 8.7 MPH, 3.68, 3.9
2008 – 7.9 MPH, 3.59, 3.7
This problem is only exacerbated since he is throwing 31.3% changeups this year compared to 24% in his career. While I expect some regression, specifically with his contact rate (~8% above career average–his O-Contact% is very high) and BABIP (.356 vs. .282 career), I agree that he will continue to be ineffective relative to his 2008 and 2009 performances.
His L/R splits support the theory that his changeup is a big problem. Changeups are most effective against opposite handed batters, so for Jair this would be lefties–but check out his numbers vs. lefties for the year.
Fangraphs again: LD%, GB/FB, FIP
2012 (SSS) – 22.7%, .89, 10.25 (!!)
2008/2009 – 20.9%/17.8%, 1.70/1.13, 3.75/4.25
Jesus… a 10.25 FIP against lefties? I’m sorry but that is just straight up bad. JJ has got to feel like he is getting violated by lefties..
I think everyone would like JJ to have some form of injury which would give a valid reason for him looking like he is pitching with the wrong hand.
Fair play to all the bloggers at CAC for not milking the problems with JJ after all the predictions made last June came true and he has fallen from hero to zero. What the answer is and who goes where when Hudson returns will be interesting to watch.
Its going to be a tough road trip and wish the starts were earlier but looking forward to Mike pitching tonite.
JJ needs to turn it around now or else he’s gonna be selling insurance or working at Sears pretty soon. His job is to get people out, and he’s not doing his job right now. If he goes out and dominates one start, maybe he’ll find a groove. Luckily we have pitching depth.Figure it out, JJ!
JJ is a multi millionaire, so I doubt he will be doing anything other than leisure activities even if his career ended tomorrow.
My guess is he is still dealing with the knee problem a bit, and his luck has turned on him. Take a guy with the skills of a 4+ ERA, take away his luck, and give him a knee problem, and this version of JJ is pretty much what you should expect to see.
A trip to the DL plus 2-3 AAA rehab starts might be just what the doctor ordered when Huddy is ready to go. After those weeks are up it is very possible a slot in the rotation will have opened up. It’s not like Huddy, Hanson and Delegado are locks to pitch well and/or stay healthy through May.
Ask Allen Iverson or Warren Sapp about being a multimillionaire!
How come when other players are performing poorly this early, the CAC blog is all about “small sample size”, but with Jurrjens three games makes him a terrible pitcher? I appreciate the analysis of the trends over his career, which are certainly disturbing, but I feel like you are putting too much emphasis on three games this season.
Because there are signs in his game that show why he has been less effective. His velocity is down across the board and he is walking more batters than he is striking out. If Beachy, Hanson, Minor, or Delgado had these type of numbers the same thing would be said.
I understand there are bad signs, and I also realize you all forewarned last year that his superstar results likely would not be sustained. You guys do an excellent job with your analysis, and I learn something every time I read this blog. I’m just saying, it’s only three games. Anyone can have a bad three games. There’s still time to right the ship.
For all those wanting and hoping for a DL excuse…
Straight from JJ’s mouth, “He offered no excuses Wednesday. He’s healthy again: ‘I feel good. I just don’t see any results.’”
Can’t put a man on DL that doesn’t want to go there and has no legitimate reason to.
Homey needs to stop throwing slow pitches right down the middle.
In response to Greg above, what they are saying in relation to JJ is not that he is as bad as he has looked this year, it’s just he is nowhere near as good as he was being proclaimed this time last year, his figures evened out after June to what us more in keeping with his talent and career lines. I don’t expect the CAC guys project him to be this bad all year but the time to offload was last year when his star was at it’s highest and most misleading. This has nothing to do with using small sample sizes.
There’s certainly a business element to this discussion.
At this point he looks like a poor candidate for a contract extension, and there’s really no reason for the Braves to retain him for 2013. The Braves have to find a way to create some trade value so that they aren’t forced to simply non-tender him.
Any trip to the DL or minors would absolutely kill any trade value he may have during the season, or even during the upcoming off season. They have to get him straightened out on the fly. Maybe the team could say his goldfish died or something and put him on the bereavement list just long enough to get a couple of under the table simulated starts back in Florida or something.
Jurrjens quotes from a DOB article in mid-February:
“”The first couple of months of rehab after the season, I was working out but wasn’t [progressing],” the right-hander said. “When I got that balance, I could see the improvement… If you would have asked me two months ago, I’d be nervous. But since I put [orthotics] in, I was able to start squatting, start running a little bit. Everything’s started clicking.””
Orthotics may help ease some symptoms, but they do not heal injuries. Whatever the underlying cause of his pain is, it’s still there.
He did nothing to heal his knee issues. He now just wears something in his shoes. I believe he is still injured and doesn’t fully know how bad and doesn’t want to make excuses.
I have been a fan of Jurrjens the past few years, but watching his starts this year has been frustrating… As noted, his velocity and the movement on hits pitches are way down… Plus, I get the sense batters are being much more patient with him this year… I believe some batters may have been fooled a bit in the first half of last year as they encountered a pitcher with slower speeds a bit more movement and control than they were used to, and as such they were chasing pitches or laying off borderline strikes(leading both to weaker contact and a few strikeouts). I now am seeing more patient plate approach from batters facing JJ (and really, this began last year). Even when he gets ahead, JJ doesn’t currently have the stuff to either blow by hitters or get them to chase pitches out of the strike zone. Therefore he either has to throw weak stuff over the plate (and get hit hard) or walk guys.
The Braves team’s first goal should be to get JJ to reproduce the velocity and movement he had last year. If this is not possible, then it may be time to cut losses
FWIW, I think Jurrjens has very poor trade value and probably always has had it. Clearly, front offices have access to all of the statistics that are availble to the authors and readers here at CAC; given that, it doesn’t seem likely teams were willing to trade valuable pieces to us for JJ. The best result is go get JJ pitching on some kind of consistent level that is not necessarily as good as the first half of the 2011 but somewhat similar to or slightly better than his career averages on a consistent basis, and for him to remain a Brave (this would rank him anywhere from 3-5 in the rotation). The question is can he achieve this result…
Jurrjens has always walked a fine line between effective and ineffective. He have a high GB%, doesn’t strike a lot of people out and his walk rate isn’t spectacular. I would find it unlikely his problems would continue to be sustained, especially to this absurd degree, if there is not an injury or lingering effect of injury.