Jair Jurrjens Optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett
April 24, 2012 at 4:31 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
In what is likely to be a morning shocker to some, Jair Jurrjens was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett following the game on Monday.
Optioning a pitcher of Jurrjens’ stature at this point in his career is rare. He has 715.2 major league innings under his belt, and at one point posted consecutive fWAR seasons of 3.7 and 3.9. He holds a career 3.48 ERA, but he has consistently out-performed his peripherals since the day he was brought up, and a career 3.96 FIP and 4.25 xFIP attests to that.
Whether Jurrjens is hiding an injury or is simply fighting mechanics is not known. Only Jurrjens knows that. Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez can deny the injury question until they are blue in the face, but only Jurrjens knows how he feels. All we can go by is data, and it shows Jurrjens throwing a slower fastball that he continues to lack the command of over stretches and doesn’t have the movement to make up for that lack of command.
In 2008, Jurrjens’ fastball had enough sinking movement that Brooks Baseball classified it as a sinker. He received 57% ground balls per balls in play on what you could say were his best-moving fastballs, and he threw them at a speed of almost 93 miles per hour. In 2009, his best-moving fastballs maintained a 48% GB/BIP rate at almost 92 miles per hour, a slight decrease in both but still pretty solid.
Fast forward to 2012 after a combined 268.1 innings between 2010 and 2011 due to injuries. Brooks Baseball’s classification has Jurrjens’ fastballs basically grouped together because the movement isn’t there. Either way, it all comes out to a GB/BIP rate in the 30-40% range with a line drive per ball in play rate at 33%, while throwing at a speed of less than 90 miles per hour.
Jurrjens simply isn’t getting the results he used to get with the fastball, and combined with poor command has resulted in a trip to Triple-A, which is something never imagined for him at this point. If Jurrjens is to return to his 2008-09 form, he will have to learn how to command an 88-89 mile-per-hour fastball while getting the most movement possible. It’s certainly not something he should be figuring out in the major leagues.
In the meantime, Randall Delgado will remain in the rotation, and Tim Hudson is expected to return on Sunday or Monday of next week.
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Hooray for a smart move by the GM! It would have been easy to keep him at the major league level, but the fact is that right now, he’s probably the 7th best option for a starting pitcher behind Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Delgado, and Teheran, and Medlen. Maybe even Hernandez? The lazy thing for Wren to have done would have been to keep him in the rotation because of his past record and send Delgado down.
I think this was alluded to earlier this weekend when during a game the announcers stated Wren and Gonzalez had said the decision on who Hudson will replace had not been made yet. My immediate reaction was that they were waiting to see the last starts of Delgado and JJ to compare. JJ had every opportunity to right the ship and just continued to struggle. This is the move I was actually hoping they would make.
Sure we have to live with the inconsistencies and struggles of a young pitcher, but it looks like the rotation of tomorrow is already starting to shape up with Hanson/Beachy/Minor/Delgado. Teheran isn’t too far behind with Hudson on his way out.
I really hope that either Flande or Gearrin comes up to fill the roster spot and pitches well enough to DFA Durbin when Hudson is activated…
wouldn’t that be nice – but honestly I think for a vet like Durbin he would have to suck for awhile longer before they dump w/e they’re paying him maybe $1.25mil?
so far he’s just looked like Proctor reincarnated
Short of DLing him due to phantom (or hidden) injury, this is the best move. I hope JJ can right the ship and keeps his head up.
I agree. I think this was clearly the right move after watching him get consistently hammered. He is just not missing bats. I don’t care what speed he’s throwing (see Livan), if the hitters are putting solid wood on it, then he needs to go back to the drawing board.
That said, I wish him the best. I like JJ. He has always come across as a hard worker and a good player. So I hope he can “figure it out,” whatever “it” is, and get back up, even if he does just pitch to his peripherals. It’s sad how big an improvement that would be at this point. Is Smoltzies shrink still around?
I imagine Gearrin will take his spot. Hopefully he’ll have a few good outings this week and Wren will decide to cut Durbin when Hudson is activated.
Another short term option could be Sutton or Parraz. With Chipper dinged up they could make the bench a little deeper.
Even with Livan’s long outing last night the pen hasn’t been worked that hard lately. i’d go with another bench option for a few days until Hudson returns.
No other options available to them, he had to go somewhere for the time being as it is like giving the opposition a game letting him pitch in his current state. Hope he can turn it around and sort out whatever unknown problem is hindering him. Just looking at his face last night it was clear something is badly wrong. How badly do the braves regret not offloading when he was riding the crest of the wave last midseason?
I so agree!! His body language has been terrible all season, and well into spring training. Did anybody else see the ST game against the tigers where the mound wasn’t good enough for him? He looked like a soiled kid who’s not getting exactly what he wanted!
Would a ROOGY or a LOOGY prove to be a better promotion for the next few days, considering the hitters the Braves will be facing?
Or, maybe they should send up a 3rd catcher for a few days so Ross could get some AB’s as a pinch hitter.
Bringing up another catcher would be interesting. This is way out there, but could be fun to see. If we brought up Bethancourt, (who is said to be MLB ready defensively), find out if Freddie Freeman can play third (he certainly has the glove for it), find out if Ross/McCann can play first, it could make for an interesting lineup on days that Chipper is hurt or resting. I know I’ve heard McCann to 1st base rumors before, but they didn’t seem too sure about it. Just wondering if it’s at all possible. It could keep Diaz or Hinske out of the lineup to be used as a PH, and also either Ross or McCann available based on matchup. Would also keep our outfield defense intact.
Yeah but do you really want to “try-out” Freeman at 3rd and McCann at 1st in a game that counts? I personally think not.
I can actually see Freeman having the glove and agility for 3rd, but I think McCann would be a MAJOR step backwards (defensively) at first.
I think I’d rather try this next spring, after the guys have all winter to work on it. Not when the games count. Wouldn’t mind bringing up a 3rd catcher for when we have interleague DH games.
I completely agree. Just thought maybe it was something they have worked on in practice throughout the years. Seeing all of the times Freddie has saved our infield with his scoops at first makes it scary to imagine ANYONE else over there.
Freeman is not going to play third. He has less range than Chipper. Seriously? No. No, no…..no
A 3rd catcher isn’t all that necessary in interleague play. The one at DH can shift to catcher if the starter gets hurt. The only downside is the loss of the DH for the rest of the game. In that unlikely event one would just let the pitcher bat or PH for him just like a NL game.
A 3rd catcher would actually be more useful for NL games so Ross or McCann could be used a a PH while still having the 3rd catcher available in case of injury to the starter.
They wont bring up beta,and freddie is not gonna be moved to 3 not nearly athletic enough.this was the move that had to be made,but it hurts in the long-run because his trade value is non-existing now.
Bethancourt is struggling…wouldn’t it be interesting to see Gattis, currently sitting at 6 HRs this year!
Gattis? C’mon man. You do know there’s a difference betweein High-A pitching and ML pitching, right?
no way freddie moves to 3rd in the near future.
I’m not sure that “hard to imagine” is necessarily true. It may not be something that happens often, but a lot of the guys on the board (myself included) have been stating this might be a move the Braves make.
It’s already been stated enough, but something is clearly wrong with J.J. However, I just do not believe it’s injury related in that he has a current injury. With that said, I do believe the lower velocity is a byproduct of last year’s knee injury.
So, he just needs to go down to Triple-A and learn how to use his new velocities in such a way to get hitters out. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine proved that you don’t have to blow them away with speed. You just need precision and the ability to out-smart hitters.
In J.J.’s good years, he was very good, but also extremely lucky in posting a low BABIP on that high GB%. That luck has finally caught up with him and now he just has to re-tool himself, so to speak.
I honestly hope J.J. does get this figured out and finds his way back to the majors, if not with the Braves, then some other team. He really has been a good pitcher for us and a stand-up guy as far as I know. Good luck J.J.!
I agree with your premise in the fact that it is related to last year’s injury as well as probably the year before. I remember reading that he has changed his stance on the mound to alleviate some of the pressure off his knee. When that happens the moving parts all change. I think he still has not made the adjustments to fix the problems with his windup.
Its either that or the dip in velocity is solely due to the fact that he still does not trust his knee and is not pushing off enough. Another concern to me is that while his fastball velocity has gone down since 2008 his changeup has seemed to stay constant. So while his difference before was 93 for a fastball compared to 85 for a changeup, now it is like 87 and 85 or 84. That is pretty troubling too.
There is one additional move I would make, but I don’t expect it to happen. I would put Randall “not quite ready for prime time” Delgado on the plane back to Atlanta with J.J. and call up Flande and move Medlen to the rotation.
I think he is as ready as any young pitcher can be.
What good is sending him back to Triple-A when there is nothing mechanically or physically wrong with him? He’s already proven he can be dominant at that level. The only reason for his runs given up has been nerves and the only way to work out nerves is to pitch in the Majors.
I’d even consider putting Livan in the rotation. As a 5th starter, he would give solid innings and still allow for a deep bullpen.
I say give Meds the start on a normal, sunny day. But if Livan has a night filled with hookers & blow, I’d start him. A little extra #vroooom never hurt anyone.
Flande is not yet on the 40-man roster. Prolly not wise to start purchasing contracts of players just for a week trial this early in the season (keep those spots for when they are really needed). Gearrin is the better call-up option, and he’s been just as good as Flande thus far.
I think Atlanta still has like 4 open 40-man spots. So really adding him to the 40-man is not difficult(no corresponding move needed) and his contract would just be ML min which while still more than most if not all of us will see in a year but not that much. However Gearrin is the better option not just cause he is on the 40-man he also has real ML experience
Had to be done. Hope JJ can work things out, but odds are is future as a Brave has been decided.
Livan in the rotation? Freddie at 3B? Come on guys, Peter would have already banned comments…
I said consider. Obviously a stretched out Medlen would be most ideal, but it probably isn’t a possibility. Delgado needs to be starting somewhere, whether it’s the 5th spot in the bigs or in Gwinnett.
Get off your high horse. Freeman at 3B is laughable, but not even in the same category as my suggestion regarding Livan. He’s been a reliable innings eater for the last several years, and that is not an insignificant value.
I’d not consider Livan in the rotation a terrible idea. That’s essentially what he’s here to do. Eat garbage innings. If the Braves end up having injuries or if a starter gets shelled, we basically see him in that spot anyway. Is it that much harder to believe that he could have pitched those 4 2/3 innings at the beginning of the game versus in the middle?
Doubtful FF can work out at 3B, but in an emergency I could see it happening. However, I’d rather have Mcann at 3B and keep FF at first if we get into a really weird situation where Chipper, Prado, Francisco, Jack Wilson and any minor league 3B we have is unable to play 3B because <>.
I was witness, as were many of you, when Livan torched us – albeit w/ some umpiring assistance – when he was w/ the Fish. I was also witness to Livan destroying us 2 seasons ago when he was with the worthless Nats.
Needless to say, my soul has been scarred by Livan and I’m glad he’s pitching for us (My response to the “Livan Spot Start Question” is also colored by my healthy fear of him). This season, we have experienced Livan’s floor…but in the past we’ve seen how ridiculously good he can be. At just $750k, I give him a spot start while noting that he has the *ability* to have a high ceiling – at least for a day.
If he sucks, pull him. At a minimum he’ll eat 2 innings and we can put in Meds. Think about this though: If he can go the distance at least we’d finally make Sportscenter, right?
LOL @ Sportscenter.
I checked ESPN.com this morning with the specific intent to see if Atlanta was in the news. My logic? Surely, sending a $5.5 million starter to the minors with no reports of injury would surely be news for any team, even if the experts say it’s a horrible move.
Did I see anything? Of course not. Although, I did find it listed on down the list on the specific MLB news page. And, well below “Braun’s decision explanation.” Seriously?
That’s why I used words like “interesting” and “fun”….. It’s all within the realm of possibility but not necessarily ideal.
I like the rotation as is. In my humble opinion the only possible change would be to add Medlin, but honestly, I like him in the bullpen….IF Fredi used him correctly, but thats another topic for another day
It’s pretty simple cut liven now and be done with this ridiculous move. Livan is done, that’s why Houston cut this poser hack and should be retired were he’s been for the past three years. This is just another wren joke attempt at appearing to understand baseball which he has no clue. Every game livan has pitched , he has given up runs and the team has lost. Time to bring up Teheran and run a 6 man rotation with medlen in the bullpen to relieve long innings. Truly if we could send wren to single a this team might have achance despite itself but with this idiot constantly messing up this team the braves will be lucky to see 90 wins.
I’m sorry to see JJ go. He has been my favorite Braves pitcher for the past few years and he has done great things for this club. I agree that it had to happen so let’s move on with a combination of Delgado and Medlen.
I also need to say something else about last nights game…I’m once again furious with Freddi. The way he filled the lineup card out, it’s like he was willing to give the Dodgers the first game of the series. He must have been using logic like this: “Struggling pitcher on the mound, Hmm, maybe I should rest 3 starters and my best reserve that was a finalist for NL Player of the Week, that way they can be well rested to continue their hot streak…Diaz does have a career 500 OBS vs the Dodgers!” Ross did play out of his mind, but common Freddi! Lets at least try to win games! Note to Freddi: “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it!”
Fredi is a freaking zealot when it comes to small sample sizes. The minute he sees a reserve having a high BA against an opposing pitcher (regardless of AB’s), he inserts them into the lineup, replacing whichever starter plays at that position.
I really wish someone would either quit reporting stats to the man or at least lie about them.
It was a perfectly fine time to use Ross. Other gripes might be fair game but that one is off base.
The infield defense was stronger with Prado at third and Ross behind the plate. Diaz does have a larger sample of good performance vs lefties. I’m not a huge proponent of Fredi’s decision making, but these weren’t among the worst, or even wrong, in my opinion.
Now matching JJ up against a lefty for LA, that might have been a mistake as the offense wouldn’t be able to score enough to cover him. But really, last night was as much on the offense’s absence of timely hitting as it was on JJ. And neither were Fredi’s fault.
I’m sad to see JJ go, but it seems like it may be for the best. Let’s hope he can find whatever it is that has been missing (velocity, location, movement).
I still have to disagree with the implication in the post that “he has consistently out-performed his peripherals” is a bad thing. To me this is good attribute. The fact that it has, to this point, been “consistent” means to me that is not likely to be due to pure luck.
“Peripherals” may be unbiased predictors of performance for the group of all MLB pitchers, but this does not mean that it necessary accurately predicts the performance of every individual pitcher.
Clearly he is consistently able to out perform his xfip until he explodes into a wondrous cavalcade of hits and runs.
There’s out performs his numbers, then there is comically bad at every turn. Jurrjens has walked a fine line, and something has caught up to him. Watching a pitching decline like this has to either be an injury or residual effect of previous injuries.
It’s clear that something is wrong with JJ now… It is not clear what that wrong thing is. I have often thought that baseball requires such a fine degree of precision, that some small thing, that might not otherwise be noticeable, can push a player from good (or great) to below-replacement (or even just plain bad). I thought the same thing about Andruw Jones in 2007. Hopefully JJ can rebound quicker and better than Andruw did.
What we should not say is, “Hey, he outperformed his peripherals for 4 years, so this is just where he should have been all along.” If he managed to consistently outperform his peripherals for that long, to me it says more about the inaccuracies of using peripherals to predict performance than about how bad JJ should have been all along.
Ther are his ERAs to fip/xfip:
2008: 3.68 – 3.59 – 3.92
2009: 2.60 – 3.68 – 4.28
2010: 4.64 – 4.19 – 4.29
2011: 2.96 – 3.99 – 4.23
That’s basically two years of outperforming numbers, one about on par and one year of terrible affect by injuries. Is two non consecutive years of outperforming the numbers enough to say that he consistently did so?
The issue with people praising the magical powers of certain pitchers is that they attest absolutely no reason as to why certain pitchers, who are often not elite pitchers, have this inherent skill that can have them appear better. The number’s don’t lie, they are simply the best estimators we have based on data that has been recorded.
Can some pitchers beat the peripherals? Maybe. Should a pitcher be determined to be able to do it after two non consecutive years of a four year career? No.
Jeff
The thing about “consistently out-performed” is a quote from the original post. I don’t follow the stats closely enough to say if it is consistent or not. But if it is consistent, I’m saying that it should be considered a good thing, not a bad thing.
And I’m also not saying it is magical… I’m just saying that the peripherals are based on aggregate data for all pitchers, not any individual. It stands to reason that all pitchers are different and perform differently relative to the peripherals.
I never made the statement that out-performing his peripherals has led to his decline. I was stating his different numbers and indicating he has out-performed those peripherals. The entire rest of the post shows I never attributed any of his decline to that, but rather it’s likely due to either injury or mechanics. That was the whole purpose of all the batted ball numbers with his fastball over the years.
David,
Thanks for that response. I think that is a good assessment. I guess my post was based more on what I thought you were implying than what you actually said, which is my fault.
I also just re-read what I wrote above and I guess I should have said that consistently outperforming should be neither considered good nor bad, but curious.
I’m glad to see JJ got sent to AAA. Something had to be done. Next up, please get us another shortstop and put Jack Wilson out of my misery. He has no business on a Major League roster. The guy is nearly an automatic out at this point.
Is it possible to get a .gif of Jurrjens last year or 3 years ago when his ERA was below 3 and compare it to this year?
To me, JJ’s having out-performed his peripherals meant that he had no margin for error…
That having been said, acquiring JJ was still a win for the organization. The braves got a few good years out of him, in exchange for nothing more than a bag of baseballs. Moving forward, you can stick a fork in him. He’s done
Probably right though it looks like the Braves will be giving some of the surplus value back this year by paying him $5m for what very well may be no contribution whatsoever.
Along with the ERA/FIP/xFIP is the fact that Jurrjens has a career 44.1 GB%, which is league average, and a career HR/FB rate of 7.8%, which is well below league average. His career K/9 is well below league average, and his career BB/9 is basically on par.
Over Jurrjens’ short career, he has allowed fewer home runs than the league average, induced the average amount of ground balls and line drives, recorded fewer strikeouts than average, and has a career BABIP below league average. All of this has culminated into a 3.53 ERA. So yes, I would venture to say Jurrjens has had a bit of luck to this point. Maybe not a ton, and probably not enough to make this entire comment worthwhile, but oh well.