The Braves Could Learn From The Brewers
April 26, 2012 at 7:00 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Typically you will find us posting about things when they are topical. For example, lineup optimization when Jason Heyward in penciled in the seven hole. Or the optimal bullpen setup after Chad Durbin blows a one-run game. Today, I am taking a somewhat different approach.
I consider the Atlanta organization to be one of the most intelligent in baseball. Keep in mind, I am a writer located nearly 1,000 miles away from Atlanta who has never stepped foot in the Braves front office. Either way, they have successfully put a competitive team on the field for more than two decades. Most markets have not experienced such a luxury.
That being said, the Braves have some things to learn. Today’s lesson comes from the Milwaukee Brewers.
Enter Jonathan Lucroy. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2007 amateur draft, Lucroy made his Major League debut in May 2010. Ever since, he has put up rather average numbers, but remains pretty strong behind the plate. His offense (.265/.313/.391 in 2011) doesn’t compare to Brian McCann’s, but they both start for their respective teams.
Now consider George Kottaras, the Brewers backup catcher. Though he came up with the Boston Red Sox, Kottaras was selected off waivers and signed by the Brewers following the 2009 season. In 124 career games with Milwaukee, he has hit .227/.316/.448. His average may be lower than Lucroy’s, but his slugging percentage is noticeably higher. Kottaras is the Brewers version of David Ross.
The difference between Lucroy and Kottaras mainly lies in their defensive ability and their ages, 25 and 28, respectively. Lucroy also signed a five-year contract last week with a club option worth $13 million if he qualifies for Super Two status or $11 million if not.
Here are the career splits of the four players considered in table format to simplify things:
|
Player |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Brian McCann |
.286 |
.358 |
.486 |
|
Jonathan Lucroy |
.263 |
.312 |
.378 |
|
David Ross |
.237 |
.325 |
.445 |
|
George Kottaras |
.229 |
.313 |
.434 |
The most important stat for the upcoming lesson is this: in 2012, Kottaras has five plate appearances as a pinch hitter while Ross has zero. This remains true, even though Ross has better career numbers in every category.
Below is a table of Kottaras’ pinch hit appearances this season:
|
Date |
Opponent |
Score |
Inning |
Outs |
Outcome |
|
Apr. 6 |
vs. Cardinals |
L 11-2 |
Bottom 9 |
1 |
3-run HR |
|
Apr. 12 |
@ Cubs |
L 0-8 |
Top 9 |
2 |
Groundout |
|
Apr. 14 |
@ Braves |
L 1-2 |
Top 9 |
1 |
Strikeout Looking |
|
Apr. 15 |
@ Braves |
L 4-7 |
Top 9 |
2 |
Strikeout Looking |
|
Apr. 17 |
vs. Dodgers |
L 3-4 |
Bottom 9 |
1 |
2-run Double |
|
Apr. 18 |
vs. Dodgers |
T 2-2 |
Bottom 10 |
1 |
Walk |
|
Apr. 23 |
vs. Houston |
W 6-5 |
Bottom 8 |
2 |
Walk |
There is one common denominator in Kottaras’ appearances – he appears late in games, regardless of the score. Not only did he appear in games that were out of reach, he also appears in close games that have potential to carry into extra innings. One has to admire the “guts” of Ron Roenicke, such a courageous man who dare use his only substitute option at catcher in such games. Actually no, that was a joke.
Ross, one of the best bench bats in baseball, has yet to appear as a pinch hitter this year. In fact, he only encountered 10 plate appearances as a substitute in 2011. Kottaras is already seven deep, yet the Brewers have played just 19 games this season.
Imagine the following scenario: Ross pinch hits for the pitcher’s spot in the eighth inning of a one-run game. The outcome of Ross’ at bat does not matter, but know that McCann stays in the game. Let’s say the Braves tied the game and are now going to extras. McCann trips on the top step of the dugout and injures his ankle – he can no longer play.
First, I feel bad for McCann. What a terrible injury. Moreover, the Braves are forced to use an emergency catcher. Worst case scenario, you lose the game due to some terrible mistake. Best case scenario, Ross makes an impact at the plate, like he is supposed to.
McCann has missed a total of 59 games in his career. Later this week, he will have played in his 900th game. I think we can conclude that McCann isn’t “injury prone.” I’m no oddsmaker, but the odds of McCann injuring himself in a game when Ross pinch hits is slim to none. Much less, if done correctly with Ross pinch hitting late, it should not be much of a factor.
The reason Ross is such a valuable commodity is due to his ability to hit both left- and right-handed pitching. Against lefties, he has the highest career OPS (illustrated below). Against righties, he has the third highest career OPS.
|
Player |
OPS vs. LHP |
OPS vs. RHP |
|
Juan Francisco |
0.554 |
0.861 |
|
Jack Wilson |
0.717 |
0.660 |
|
Matt Diaz |
0.876 |
0.687 |
|
Eric Hinske |
0.671 |
0.796 |
|
David Ross |
0.782 |
0.768 |
Considering Diaz typically starts against left-handed pitchers, Ross is the best option to come off the bench. Therefore, it is only logical for Ross to get a chance against a left-handed reliever late in a close game, or even a right-handed pitcher to garner some at bats.
Unfortunately, the Braves have played 19 games this season and Ross has yet to appear in just one game as a pinch hitter. As recently as Sunday, the Braves were down two runs in the bottom of the ninth against the Diamondbacks. With one out, Jack Wilson, faced closer J.J. Putz and ultimately flied out. A quick look at our chart above and Ross’ career OPS is more than 100 points higher than Wilson’s. In fact, Wilson was the worst possible choice to face a right-handed pitcher in this scenario. It’s not the result of the fly out that is concerning, it is the process. Sure, the Braves were down two with the bases empty, but heck, it couldn’t hurt to give Ross an extra at bat or allow him to try to bring the game within one. After all, Putz did just give up a home run to Juan Francisco.
I understand that there is a side of baseball that we are not exposed to as fans and writers, but I can’t imagine there hasn’t even been one scenario that Ross could have appeared in.
In short, I am not expecting a dramatic change. In fact, I would be surprised if Ross pinch hits even one time by the end of April. All I am asking is that Fredi at least give the guy a chance.
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Fredi Gonzalez is a whirling dervish of baseball strategy and managerial genius. A beacon for our times.
So how many times did you gag after righting that?
Sleep deprived brain *Writing
My eyes rolled so hard, I had to go to the hospital to have them brought back around. True story.
Do you remember if Bobby Cox was much different with his catcher philosophy? Or what it’s like around the majors?
I remember he gave Maddux a personal catcher. Giving McCann a game off every 5 days and letting Ross get weekly regular at bats would be a good idea. That would be a good start. We’re a long way from Fredi giving Ross high leverage pinch hit at bats against lefties.
They already do that. And you’d know if you payed any attention. David Ross plays on average around 1.5 times a week. I say that’s pretty similar to starting every time one of the starters goes around. That’s great that he gets to play but we want production out of our players. And him not getting the pinch hits he deserves is another step back from us not going deep into the playoffs. Fredi is not the best tactician…
[...] How the Atlanta Braves could learn from the Milwaukee Brewers. [Capitol Avenue Club] [...]
I totally agree. Unless one of the starters has a day off and is on the bench, Ross is their best option for pinch hitting. Maybe if they had 3 catchers on the roster, Frediot would finally use Ross more.
Why would you have 3 catchers? What a waste of a roster spot.
could be I guy like Gattis a few years down the road as your third catcher. He could catch play left and 1st plus he could pinch hit
Great piece and so easy to comprehend that maybe even Fredi can let the facts sink in. I remember reading the same points on here last year just not as detailed.
Nope. Still too stats-y for Fredi.
Now if Ross was a career minor-leaguer with tremendous speed for a catcher… different story
Why can’t the Braves find a utility/bench player who can be an emergency catcher. Pay him the minimum, you then get 2 bats for cheap.
I believe Diaz is our emergency catcher. Or maybe Prado. Not sure. Either way, the worst that could happen is you have to put one of those guys in and you end up losing. In many of these situations, we end up losing anyways (down 2 in the 9th). So, it’s worth a shot to put our best bench bat in to pinch hit even if we end up losing.
No way should we risk injury upon either Prado or Diaz while playing the toughest position in baseball. They are too valuable, especially Prado.
I agree it’s an injury risk and they are both valuable, but that is why they have the title “emergency.” Who else would you would behind the plate that isn’t as valuable? Hinske or Francisco I suppose, but we might as well just walk off the field and forfeit at that point. At least Diaz or Prado would be half decent at blocking a ball. Of course this is my opinion, I have no way of proving whether Diaz, Hinske, Prado, or even Peter Moylan would be better at catching.
Of course, Eddie Perez would be our best option in this situation!
Can’t find that Diaz has ever played a game at catcher in the majors or the minors.
He’s always been considered the emergency (as in, holy shit, we don’t have a catcher, who’s played catcher ever in their life?) b/c he played catcher in HS. Seriously. He’s been listed as the Braves emergency catcher in the past, as well as the Pirates emergency catcher last season. In reality, emergency guys are guys who may have played catcher in HS or college but usually have caught very rarely if any in professional ball. Hell, the Twins don’t even list a BACKUP catcher on their 25 man. Who the hell would backup Mauer if he stubs his toe?
Mauer’s hair would play in that situation…
Off the top of my head, here are a few guys that are utility types that came up as catchers:
Brandon Inge- Tigers. Highly unlikely. Overpaid, he’s making $5.5M as a platoon player. No one would take him on for that kind of money.
Ryan Doumit- Twins. Would make bench better. Can catch, play 1B or RF. Switch hitter with career OPS of .771. Currently in a one year deal worth $3M. He will be available if the Twins are out of contention.
Casey McGehee- Pirates. Was a catcher part of the time in the minors, most recently 2008. Could fill in behind the plate in a pinch.
Jake Fox- In AAA with Pirates right now. Can play Corner IF, LF and catch.
If you have the “emergency catcher” ability, I guarantee your not very good at your main job or why would you do it?
I think another reason we don’t see Ross (and it’s absolutely sad if this is, in fact, true) is that there are 162 games. As fans, and especially with last season in mind, every game matters. However, I think a lot of managers will manage the game along the lines of, “if we comeback and win, great. If not, I’m not going to risk a key player because there’s always tomorrow.”
The game Sunday was a perfect example of that thinking playing out, in my opinion. Down only 1 run after the Francisco homer, Fredi did not let the pitcher just stroll up there and strikeout. So, obviously he was still trying. But, at the same time, he did not send his best bench bat up (which any manager would if it were Game 7 of the WS), which means he wasn’t trying his hardest to win it.
Just case in point of the consideration that the game was just another game. Sad, but true.
That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Fredi clearly just doesn’t think of Ross as an available bench bat. I mean, if you’re saying he didn’t pinch hit him because of risk of injury…to who? To Ross? What is the risk outside of that game itself? If McCann gets hurt, and you don’t have Ross available to catch, that’s a one game risk, and a pretty small one at that. That was the point of this article.
While what your saying isn’t necessarily false, it just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in this context. Not to mention, you’re giving Fredi credit for actually thinking, and it’s pretty clear he isn’t.
How does that not make any sense? It basically goes right along with the theory that Fredi is not using Ross for fear of injury to one of the 2 catchers, leaving him stuck.
If he didn’t fear this and played every game for the win, then he would use the better pinch hitter EVERY time. Since he obviously doesn’t play every game to win and very likely fears some freak accident to Ross or McCann, he ends up using Wilson or Pastor as a pinch hitter.
Pretty simple to understand…
I guess us debating which way that Fredi is an idiot is a silly point haha. Clearly he’s using poor logic (if any logic at all) in his decisions regarding pinch hitters. Your wording of your first post just bothered me because it made it sound like Fredi was using the logic that any other manager would use, and I felt like that was giving him too much credit.
LOL Trust me… any respect I had for Fredi flew out the window when he sent Constanza up to hit in a high leverage situation in the first game.
I was just merely stating another possible reasoning behind Fredi’s poor management of catcher/pinch hitters.
You can’t use the better pinch hitter all the time. A lot more stuff goes into it than just pure numbers and you have to look at what the other team has left and be able to say, well I have something to counter that move and this one. You gotta think about who’s playing well at the time, who has hit who well in the past, etc. You don’t just throw David Ross out there against a right hander and expect him to produce when you have Francisco who pounds right handed pitching. Leave the coaching to the people who know what they’re talking about.
Wil H – That’s obviously true, but there’s a difference between “not using your ‘best’ pinch hitter every time” and “NEVER using your best pinch hitter, even in situations where it clearly makes sense to use him”. Fredi adheres to the latter philosophy.
I understand the reasoning, just in case McCann gets hurt. However, in a late game situation, why not use Ross? McCann getting hurt, like in the scenario above, only matters if the game keeps going, meaning you would have had to have someone produce in the first place. If Ross is the best option to extend the game, isn’t that a risk worth taking?
Yes!
Exactly right!
A perfectly reasoned piece of writing.
Lets hope the Braves front office reads this.
Maybe the reasoning and logic that Fredi uses is that firstly it is not conventional for the backup catcher to pinch hit as stated in this article and he doesn’t want to be a rebel, together with the fact he could seriously believe that the other pinch hit “options” are actually better than Ross in that situation? We saw time and again last year that Fredi does not think logically and will make total screw ups despite plain factual evidence against his reasoning.
If he, for one second, believes that Jack Wilson is a better pinch hit option than Ross, he (meaning Fredi) should be beaten to death with a wet noodle.
To this day, I don’t even know how Jack Wilson is in the Major League. I qualify him along the same lines as Constanza.
I wouldn’t put it past Fredi to say this or actually think it and it wouldn’t be the most stupid thing he has said or done! or the last! I wouldn’t use a wet noodle to beat him, they should cover him in ketchup and let Hinske eat him.
And Fredi could tip his hat to Hinske for finishing him off!
Fredi was surprised to learn, last year, that Jordan Schafer wasn’t leading the team in OBP, then looked at the widely disparate numbers of his, Prado’s, and McLouth’s OBPs, and declared that they were all “close to the same.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t know who on his team is actually a good hitter, especially when it relates to a guy like David Ross, hits for a poor average but has a solid OBP and great power.
Wilson has defensive value, so he’s better than Constanza. But I agree that Fredi’s usage of Wilson in this young season has been very strange–in particular, starting him over Pastornicky sometimes, and using Wilson as a pinch hitter.
When Pastornicky is batting .165 for the season, and has no defensive value to speak of – you’re dang right I’d prefer Jack Wilson in the line-up.
I mean if both players are pretty much a certain out, you go with the guy who is a better defender by several orders of magnitude. It’s a little surprising to me there are so many people who can’t understand this simple logic.
Now Pastornicky has been hitting better since being benched for three days, and if that continues, then there might be a little more merit to the argument. But how well does Pastornicky have to hit in order for his offensive contributions from the 8th spot in the line-up to surpass the value of Wilson’s superior defense. When you consider that he’s batting immediately before the pitcher, which means that he’s going to score at a much smaller clip even when he gets on base, on base percentage becomes much less meaningful in terms of value, as does batting average, although not to as severe of a degree. Therefore you would have to look at slugging percentage and BA with men on base in order to have a fair comparison, and frankly, he has been basically as bad as possible all season in both regards.
Wilson was pinch hitting well at the time. And there are not many if any teams at all that use their backup catcher as a pinch hitter. We have Ross so that when his start comes around every five to six days, our catcher’s spot does not dip in production like everyone else’s. Notice how David Ross usually plays well when he starts? That’s because he doesn’t have to do it everyday, and they pick a good matchup for him opposing pitchers wise.
When you have as effective a PH as Ross, with such high OPS vs RH and LH he should be used. Period.
But I did do a bit of research to see what the rest of the league is doing. Using 25 man rosters from MLBDEPTHCHARTS.com (updated yesterday), only 3 teams have PH a C more than 2 ABs. Clevenger for the Cubs is 2/3 with an RBI double. Kottaras, as mentioned, actually has 7 plate appearances. He is 2/5 with 2 BBs and 5 RBI. The third is Sanchez for SF, who is 0/2. 11 teams have used backup catchers to PH one AB all season, and they are combined 1/11 with Kelly Shoppach getting that one hit. 14 teams have not used the backup C to PH.
So, around the majors, this is typcial behavior. What it sounds like though is Frediot doesn’t realize or understand the value of Ross as a hitter nor does he understand the low probability and low risk of using Ross as a PH. In the WORST of all scenarios, McCann getting hurt after Ross pinch hits, the Braves would put someone in as emergency (Diaz, who was emergency C last year in Pitt), probably lose one game, and then call a player up if the injury serious enough to DL McCann.
While that may be true, you have to look at where the respective team’s catchers rank among batters on their bench. Ross is valuable because he is a solid hitter, not because he is a backup catcher. It’s just something to keep in mind.
Completely agree. It was a bit of an arbitrary comparison b/c I didn’t take the time to look at entire benches. I tried to disclaim that with my first sentence but should have been more concise.
I think the word you wanted to use is precise, not concise. Concise means to be short, and to the point. Precise means to say exactly what you mean with no room for misunderstanding.
Not trying to be a jerk grammar nazi, but, if it were me, I’d want to know.
Stick to baseball Rook. I’m not interested in your gramasshole superiority (or assumption thereof). And, by the way, when you use “but” it usually accomplishes what you claim you are trying to avoid. Stick to the conversation at hand or don’t reply to my comments.
Not only that, but the Braves, as a team, have been all too willing to use McCann as a pinch hitter when he’s not starting. Every single year that David Ross has been with the Braves, McCann has had more pinch hit appearances than him, despite being a starter.
It’s not about saving your back-up catcher, I think the fact is that the Braves don’t realize just how good a hitter David Ross is. In fact, Brian McCann has about a 25% chance of being called upon to pinch hit in games when he doesn’t start. That’s extremely high, actually, considering that some games will be blow-outs in which it’s not worth using a starter who’s having a day off.
The Braves don’t realize what they have in David Ross as a hitter.
addendum: also regarding that 25% number, included in that are games in which Brian McCann is hurt/on the DL, and completely unavailable in any capacity. It’s probably much closer to 40 or 50% when you factor that in-I simply looked at Games Started, and subtracted from 162 for that rough estimate.
Extremely willing to use McCann as a pinch hitter, while being extremely reticent about using David Ross. So it’s less about strategy and more about being stupid.
Good article. What’s even crazier is that McCann pinch hits (somewhat often too) late in games when Ross is behind the dish.
That’s a great point
I think that is because McCann is an upgrade offensively over Ross. When McCann pinch hits, he’ll likely remain in the game should the game continue on. In other words, the team doesn’t lose anything.
In the other situation, if the game does go on, Fredi does not want to take offense away by leaving Ross in the game thus burning him as a position choice.
There’s really no difference, injury-risk-wise, between letting Ross pinch-hit and not stay in the game and having McCann pinch-hit then stay in the game. In either case, you’re one catcher injury away from having an emergency. So it is nonsensical to let McCann pinch-hit and stay in, while at the same time never letting Ross pinch-hit only.
I think all of these reasons lead me to believe that Fredi does not think Ross is a solid pinch hitter (despite the evidence showing otherwise). He obviously knows McCann can hit, which is why he pinch hits him late in games with Ross starting. He obviously isn’t concerned about 1 of them getting injured, or he wouldn’t have put McCann in to PH. Therefore, he probably doesn’t have the same fear of injury that we think he does. If he did, McCann would never PH.
I think you’re right, Heathbar, but Fredi’s actually been using Jack Wilson as a pinch hitter in some of these cases. Surely he can’t possibly think that Wilson is a better option than Ross, right? I do worry about Fredi sometimes… did he eat lead paint as a child? Does he have an organic brain injury?
Great article. I remember when I was writing the manager AI for the video-game baseball franchise that I used to run – it wasn’t rocket science. When you were down late in a game, the objective was to tie the game or take the lead. It doesn’t do you any good to “save” a player for later in the game until you can guarantee that you’ve got a later to worry about. The only thing you lose is the potential to pinch-run for McCann later in the game and face the possibility of using your “emergency” catcher. I think its funny that managers have no problem running out position players to pitch, but won’t use guys that have catching experience as a last gasp to help win ballgames.
Just look at last night. McCann was pinch run for by jack wilson so Ross caught in the ninth. What bugs me about that is we wasted his bat there. Fredi could have pinch run Wilson and then pinch hit Ross for pastornicky. Wilson even stayed in the game at SS in the ninth.
This is the thinking that is so utterly moronic it has to be discussed. Fredi appears to believe that if the catcher that is the back-up on any given day (typically Ross, but McCann when Ross is starting) stays in the game to catch, then he’s not facing the same risk, emergency-wise, were he to simply pinch-hit Ross. I just don’t understand how no one in the organization has taken the time to explain this to Fredi and, if they have, how he can possibly justify his actions.
bah, stupid iOS autocorrect, put a y at the end of my username.
Oh man, I was going to bring this exact thing up a week ago. If we’re down by a run in the 9th and it’s either Ross or Wilson to pinch hit, why not give the team a chance to win? If something happens to Canns/Ross in extras, then just put Durbin back there and pray he can catch the pitch. If you lose because of the decision to pinch hit your reserve catcher, but the reasoning was to give your team a chance to win the game, then who cares? Concede the game in extras, not in regulation. What are the possible odds of the injury occurring? One in a million? There is some traditional logic employed by baseball traditionalists that absolutely boggles the mind. I wonder why Ross would actually want to stay in Atlanta if he never gets to play. Could you imagine being in the dugout, bottom 9th, down a run, 2 outs, lefty up, pitcher’s spot, and Frediot passes you over to pinch hit Contstanza because there is an EXTREMELY SLIGHT chance McCann might get injured in a HYPOTHETICAL accident IF you make it past that inning?
That’s what makes this only argument so painful all of us fans. Fredi doesn’t seem to realize the pot of gold he leaves sitting on the bench every night. Ross is a starter for the majority of teams, AL and NL.
Did a similar write-up on Ross a couple weeks ago. http://wp.me/p2lqJ1-1n
This has bugged me for the longest time, and I have yet to find a realistic answer.
Didn’t Boscan come up with the big club last year from ST? That may have been the purpose for the 3 C’s but as I recall Fredi got bashed for that too.
Teach Durbin how to catch a breaking ball. He should have something to do besides pitch during close games.
Slow news day, huh? You guys are crushing Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves are 12 and 7, he has clearly made the effort to allow his starting pitchers to get deeper into the game, and he is resting the ‘pen nicely. Also, I love the way he is deflecting attention and pressure from Heyward, allowing him to get out of his own head and play for a while before thrusting him back into the spotlight as the man. His time will come, but again, the Braves are 12 and 7, and you guys are finding THIS to complain about? Working too hard, boys. You’ll be exhausted by the All-Star break.
Alan — I appreciate the comment. This article has been in the works for two weeks. There are certainly things worth complimenting him on and I think you’ll see more of that here.
This was an interesting read and I think the general argument for using your backup catcher to pinch hit in certain situations is sound. However, I think there’s a lot more that goes into this. While I will agree that David Ross is a good hitter and the stats back it up, it seems like the wrong thing to look at. Plenty of people are talking about his hitting compared to Jack Wilson, but who is better in a pinch hitting situation? That seems a lot more relevant.
I don’t actually know the best place to find that kind of information and honestly, I don’t know a lot about baseball statistics aside from the very basics. Off the top of my head, I don’t really remember Ross being a great pinch hitter, but he’s not used a lot in that role as we’ve established.
I will say that Jack Wilson seems to bunt well, so he can move runners in that situation. Although I’m probably biased by the recent success in the second Dodgers game.
These are all good points. This thought has crossed my mind before, but seeing it on paper and comparing Ross to another player really sheds light on the it.
How bout with Mccann the Braves do what the Cards did with Joe Torre and move him to third keep Prado in at left or trade him along with either Hanson or Jair to someone for a bigger bat like Trumbo or someone that can hit leadoff like Trayvon Robinson from Seattle and use Pastornicky in the 2 hole in the lineup. The one thing i want to see the Braves do is trade Uggla I am sick and tired of seeing him hit solo hrs and strike out with runners on. CWS Boston or the Yankees could use him as a DH.
I don’t think it’s the injury risk that keeps Gonzalez from using Ross to pinch hit late in close games. I think it’s the 35% chance that Bmac will get on base in his next at bat and Fredi will want to pinch run for him if it’s an important run.
Sign Inge as UTIL man and let him be the emergency catcher.
I was wondering how bout Jaye Chapman Buddy Caryle Christian Martinez and Salecado to the Angels for Trumbo Andrew Romine and Cantu. Then they bring up Trout if they are in need of bench help.